tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post4860276471248776785..comments2024-01-09T05:19:39.331-05:00Comments on Ghostrunner on First: I'm Going to Egg Nate Silver's HouseDrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07271534213351978408noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-43185892224631942092009-02-17T15:50:00.000-05:002009-02-17T15:50:00.000-05:00I've got money on the over.Still taking bets. Holl...I've got money on the over.<BR/><BR/>Still taking bets. Holla.Navin Vaswani (@eyebleaf)https://www.blogger.com/profile/08445618400360263938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-59367031341801095242009-02-12T13:20:00.000-05:002009-02-12T13:20:00.000-05:00Hey, you probably check your blog email about as m...Hey, you probably check your blog email about as much as I do soooo... check it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-87984072608207359892009-02-11T02:44:00.000-05:002009-02-11T02:44:00.000-05:00If you have access to a Haskell interpreter, type:...If you have access to a Haskell interpreter, type:<BR/>let pythagenpat g rs ra = g / (1 + (ra/rs) ** (((rs + ra)/g) ** 0.287))<BR/>Now you can type things like:<BR/>pythagenpat 162 730 692<BR/>and get output like:<BR/>85.03519147652572Torgenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12254724427156121537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-43141004396787421002009-02-11T01:22:00.000-05:002009-02-11T01:22:00.000-05:00Wikipedia knows all<A HREF="http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/4/3/c/43c198866d56f1677288399f3908934e.png" REL="nofollow">Wikipedia knows all</A>Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07271534213351978408noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-53368271468440495312009-02-11T01:07:00.000-05:002009-02-11T01:07:00.000-05:001. I hate PECOTA, always have2. If indeed they pro...1. I hate PECOTA, always have<BR/><BR/>2. If indeed they projected 77 wins last year then I take particular satisfaction in (a) winning 9 more games than that; and (b) pythaging a full 15 wins more - reinforces my opinion that PECOTA sucks (and bodes well for this season)<BR/><BR/>3. What Torgen said. 85 wins would be a much more tolerable projection.<BR/><BR/>4. Only scoring 20 more runs than last year? Please! A full season from Hill, Lind, and Snider should do that, even with conservative expectations. <BR/><BR/>5. Giving up 80 more runs? Unlikely. But I guess "regression to the mean" would account for the biggest part of that so I won't quibble there - it just goes to show how incredibly good the pitching was last year.<BR/><BR/>So, obviously, I don't take this projection seriously.<BR/><BR/>Question - is there a pythag calculator freely available on-line? The sort where one could enter a given number of runs scored and allowed and get a win total projection?The Southpawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-91893444560019292462009-02-10T21:33:00.000-05:002009-02-10T21:33:00.000-05:00I also want to know where they get a .500 record f...I also want to know where they get a .500 record from their own prediction of a +38 run differential, considering they have Cleveland winning 84 with a +5. Pythagenpat says 730-692 should be 85 wins.Torgenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12254724427156121537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-38889975277889552982009-02-10T19:41:00.000-05:002009-02-10T19:41:00.000-05:00Basically every single player on the Jays improved...Basically every single player on the Jays improved their numbers after Cito took over and yet that doesn't transfer at all. <BR/><BR/>Their projections for our outfield are eye rolling.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-29291473262713588042009-02-10T18:43:00.000-05:002009-02-10T18:43:00.000-05:00A stirring round of angry smallman syndrome for al...A stirring round of angry smallman syndrome for all! <BR/><BR/>I'll take bad rather than overlooked. I demand satisfaction dammit.Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07271534213351978408noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-18373878148688782032009-02-10T18:25:00.000-05:002009-02-10T18:25:00.000-05:00Expected win differentialfor 2009 +33 runsactual 2...Expected win differential<BR/>for 2009 +33 runs<BR/>actual 2008 +104<BR/>2007 +54<BR/>2006 +55<BR/>2005 +70<BR/>season from hell -104<BR/>2003 +68<BR/>2002 -15<BR/>I just can't see this team that just lost "100 earned runs against" Burnett and still drop 71 runs with almost an identical team returning. I'll take the over on +50 runs.<BR/>-brent in KoreaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-17946790080228798942009-02-10T16:35:00.000-05:002009-02-10T16:35:00.000-05:00Former #1 draft pick Matt Bush to the Jays! Father...Former #1 draft pick Matt Bush to the Jays! Fathers, lock up your daughters and liquor cabinets.bkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06232196399738193908noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-79811049689835893972009-02-10T15:46:00.000-05:002009-02-10T15:46:00.000-05:00My Walkoff Walk brothers debated PECOTA in the fal...My Walkoff Walk brothers debated PECOTA in the fall, and I tend to agree that it does individual players well. Over a full roster the deviation compounds making them harder to accurately project.Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07271534213351978408noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-1858229952038353662009-02-10T15:35:00.000-05:002009-02-10T15:35:00.000-05:00Lookout Landing were debating the PECOTA simulatio...Lookout Landing were debating the PECOTA simulation, and they think PECOTA underrates strong defensive teams by not paying any attention to defense. Also PECOTA thinks Ichiro is Damaso Garcia, and projects playing time stupidly.Torgenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12254724427156121537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-747236263452087289.post-54723096033319138262009-02-10T13:11:00.000-05:002009-02-10T13:11:00.000-05:0081 wins isn't so bad, but .500 baseball is much mo...81 wins isn't so bad, but .500 baseball is much more watchable when you've got dingers galore--like in the Fregosi years--and cheap Dome Lager beer-flavoured beverage. <BR/><BR/>Until everyone's healthy in 2010, divisional realignment, the return of the balanced schedule, a ban on overslot draft bonuses, the Jays get sold, etc., serenity now. <BR/><BR/>Serenity now, motherfuckers.<BR/><BR/>JWUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07529955863771521922noreply@blogger.com