Monday, May 31, 2010

Get Ready for a Whole Bunch of This


Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News isn't the first, nor will he be the last. Expect whispers to grow into murmurs in no time flat.
Jose Bautista equaled his career high home run total on May 30th...Alex Gonzalez's isolated power and slugging percentage are each up over 100 points...Vernon Wells rediscovered his power stroke at 32...John Buck's home run per fly ball rate is 50% higher than his career rate
Baggarly didn't actually accuse Bautista of anything, I got there all on my own. With a certain Anthony Galea still in the news, vague innuendos could pair up with nagging doubts to make this a most uncomfortable time.

Nevermind the team-wide philosophy of going for broke. You'll have to ignore the complete and utter disregard for anything less than a full swing of every single batter in the lineup; Dwayne Murphy's calling card perhaps. The longer this madness lasts, the more pointed the criticism becomes. The more national columnists who might peak their nose over the 49th parallel then claim to smell a rat.

If I'm right and the Jays incredible start brings skeptics out of the woodwork, how will you react? I suspect many Jays fans would dismiss any allegations out of hand, as that's what being a fan means. "Our guys? No way!" I don't think for a second anything untoward is going on under the watchful eye of Alex Anthopoulos, not for one second!

But were it the Orioles who suddenly went crazy and hit 53 home runs in May thanks to the contributions of Julio Lugo, Ty Wigginton (whoops!), and Garret Atkins, you'd better believe I'd be skeptical. Good thing the Jays are doing it so I have nothing to worry about.

20 comments:

  1. Good thing the Jays are doing it so I have nothing to worry about.

    Exactly.

    Steroids!!1

    Oops. I mean: Playoffs!!!1

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  2. In all seriousness, I really doubt there could be anything like a coordinated effort- I really doubt there's a culture of impunity when it comes to steroids any more. Could one guy be trying to extend/improve his career? Sure. But no way V-Dub, Hill, the pitchers would put up with others besmirching their names & reputations in the game.

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  3. I said the Jays took the Jose Canseco special in jest a few days ago, too. Good thing Toronto is akin to Azerbaijan for our American baseball friends.

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  4. I'll agree with eyebleaf here. Wells and Hill have shown the capabilities before, as has Alex Gonzalez (check some of his Cincinatti stats).

    Bautista is a curious case, but I remember in his Pittsburgh days everyone was expecting him to be a lot more productive, and he's just the epitome of an incredibly late bloomer.

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  5. I've just become completely convinced that Cito Gaston and his band of merry coaches have an almost magical ability to find the power potential in guys who were expected to hit like this once upon a time, but never quite lived up to the expectations (see: Bautista, Encarnacion). The mystical batting practice sessions with Bruce Walton pitching have worked wonders on everybody they've done it with... as reactionary as this probably sounds, I'm really starting to warm up to Clarence lately.

    I've also been thinking, this early power surge could really work in their favour in a lot of other ways. When they went crazy with the home runs last September, it was too late to have any kind of effect on how other teams approached them -- they were still the shitty Blue Jays, on pace for 70-something wins in the last month of the season. But this year, the word is out that this team hits a ridiculous amount of home runs; Dan Haren actually said "I've never seen anything like it before." That's the kind of reputation that might actually strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers... guys are gonna nibble instead of attacking the strike zone, and if the Jays play their cards right, they could really take advantage of that. Guys like Bautista and Hill are clearly not afraid to take a walk if a pitcher wants to hand one to them, and if a few more guys hop on that train, we might actually see some homers with men on base once in a while.

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  6. One last thing: I've seen more than a few people saying "Bautista is new Ben Zobrist," but I'd sooner compare him to another Ray -- Carlos Pena. Here's a guy who couldn't stick anywhere, never really did anything of value, and only received regular playing time with the Rays out of necessity... and we all know what happened there. Or how Jason Werth, about another part-time outfielder who bounced around for most of his career, and then had a sudden power surge when he was almost 30?

    It's certainly not unheard of, but I'm glad that it appears to be the Jays who've caught lightning in a bottle this time around.

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  7. Well said on all points, Ty.

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  8. The thought had crept up in my mind as well, but realistically the fact that it even raises suspicions would in itself indicate that it's not what people think. If these guys were doing something shifty they'd know not to go overboard and make people notice, which is exactly what they'd be doing right now. Say for example there were a superhumanly powerful mutant who could throw 115 mph fastballs or a guy who could telekinetically launch his fly ball hits out of the park. if it happened with regularity, people would notice, eyebrows would be raised, and investigations would be launched, which is why superhumanly powerful mutants playing baseball would know to stay under the radar.

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  9. I dunno sadp, perfect games aren't exactly subtle.

    GIVE ME YOUR BOOTS, YOUR JACKET, AND YOUR SHITTY NATIONAL LEAGUE BASEBALL SOULS

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  10. From the request queue....I wouldn't mind seeing a strike zone plot of all first pitch home runs we've hit this year (including pitch type). Should be a soft ball for you Drew. :)

    It is an interesting strategy - first pitch swinging - pitchers love to get ahead 0-1. I wonder how difficult it would be to look at how "juicy" fastballs are at different counts. Do 0-0 fastballs trend toward the middle of the zone like a 3-0 fastball does?? Same for curves and changeups for that matter. 0-0 is a great count to sit on a pitch.

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  11. I dunno sadp, perfect games aren't exactly subtle.

    Yes, but he's smart enough to lose once in a while.

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  12. Interesting question Gil, and I was thinking the same thing over the weekend after Overbay hit one home run on a get-me-over first-pitch fastball from whatever shitballing "lefty specialist" the O's sent out to face him, and then another on a 3-0 fastball from Guthrie yesterday. Credit for that also needs to go to Cito, or whoever it was that gave him the green light to swing at that pitch -- that's the kind of strike he ought to be attacking more often. Overbay's problem over the past couple years has seemed to be that he watches far too many easy pitches go by. Working the count isn't very effective when word gets out that you're sitting back and watching easy fastballs waltz right through your wheelhouse.

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  13. Bautista has been on fire since last September (10 HR in Sept/Oct last year). He also swings VERY hard. I live right next door to the dome, and I'm pretty sure I can actually hear it when he swings and misses...

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  14. Wow, I just realized that Jose Bautista has turned out to be exactly what I wanted Randy Ruiz to be for this team. And JoBau's big leg kick makes his swing my favourite on the team, without question.

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  15. What Jeremy said. Bautista started to light it up late last year when he was seeing regular turf time and when asked about it, said that he started to recognize pitches after seeing more at-bats.

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  16. Aw, man...

    I was all giddy like a schoolgirl all day, with a head filled of sunshine and positivity.

    And then this.

    Way to bring me down, man.

    Then again, if you ain't cheatin', you ain't trying.

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  17. Remember when we were all scratching our heads when he was re-upped for 2009 for 2.5 mil? And then again this past winter when everyone feared Cito falling in love with him and leading him off every day? It's time for all of us to eat crow. Like, a barrel of them.

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  18. I will gladly eat the JoBau crow.
    NOW WHO WANTS TO WATCH JOBAU SOCK SOME DINGERS????
    GO JAYS GO

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  19. Yeah, seriously, have you guys tried this crow? It's fucking delicious.

    Also awesome: the couple of absolute rockets he hit out to RF for a triple and a double on the weekend. It's only a matter of time before JoBau starts giving out souvenirs to that side of the park as well.

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  20. Drew is looking prophetic once again. September and April may not be good months to evaluate true talent level of hitters. Clearly, JBau was coasting in those months.

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