Projectile Vomiting Numbers

Projection systems aren't without value. Much like advanced defensive metrics they can be useful if you go in with the correct state of mind. Don't pick and choose which numbers suit your preconceived notions but apply heavy dash of skepticism at all times. Sometimes the numbers don't add up or seem to make sense but you can't expect too much from (relatively) simple algorithms.

Below I took the three projection systems available at Fangraphs - including newcomer Rotochamp - and averaged them together with fan projections available on the site. None of the numbers are weighted to allow for Bill James' insanity or the simplicity of the system with a name so dumb I can barely bring myself to type it: Marcels. Take in the results and scroll down for my jaded commentary.

Please note Rotochamp (listed as RotoC) doesn't include a wRC+ projection and no way in Hell am I capable of those types of mathematical gymnastics. The Rotochamp people also exhibit the good sense to completely ignore Juan Rivera who, I am shocked to learn, now plays for the Blue Jays.

System	PA	H	HR	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Jose Bautista
Bill James	614	134	34	7	13.00%	22.30%	0.258	0.262	0.251	0.355	0.509	0.373	136
RotoC	651	137	39	6	14.00%	21.50%	0.301	0.274	0.270	0.383	0.571	0.408
Marcel	582	122	30	7	12.40%	22.60%	0.240	0.257	0.246	0.346	0.486	0.362	128
Fans (88)	655	145	36	5	13.40%	22.40%	0.258	0.267	0.256	0.361	0.513	0.377	134
Average	626	135	35	6	13.20%	22.20%	0.264	0.265	0.256	0.361	0.520	0.380	133
Travis Snider
Bill James	340	85	16	6	8.50%	27.00%	0.222	0.327	0.273	0.337	0.495	0.361	128
RotoC	667	144	23	7	7.60%	28.00%	0.202	0.344	0.276	0.334	0.478	0.351
Marcel	387	92	13	5	8.50%	26.10%	0.181	0.320	0.264	0.329	0.444	0.338	112
Fans (49)	571	141	25	7	9.10%	25.80%	0.214	0.320	0.272	0.340	0.486	0.356	119
Average	491	116	19	6	8.43%	26.73%	0.205	0.328	0.271	0.335	0.476	0.352	120
Adam Lind
Bill James	595	155	26	1	7.40%	20.90%	0.216	0.315	0.281	0.338	0.497	0.362	128
RotoC	725	152	25	1	6.80%	23.00%	0.200	0.308	0.267	0.322	0.467	0.343
Marcel	572	140	22	2	7.20%	21.60%	0.195	0.302	0.268	0.324	0.464	0.340	113
Fans (49)	638	164	28	2	7.50%	21.00%	0.210	0.308	0.278	0.334	0.488	0.352	116
Average	633	153	25	2	7.23%	21.63%	0.205	0.308	0.274	0.330	0.479	0.349	119
Aaron Hill
Bill James	572	138	22	3	7.20%	15.10%	0.186	0.270	0.26	0.319	0.446	0.332	107
RotoC	682	139	26	4	6.70%	15.60%	0.193	0.265	0.259	0.316	0.453	0.334
Marcel	563	127	22	5	6.70%	16.10%	0.179	0.255	0.247	0.305	0.426	0.320	99
Fans (84)	616	153	25	5	7.10%	16.80%	0.189	0.282	0.267	0.325	0.456	0.339	107
Average	608	139	24	4	6.93%	15.90%	0.187	0.268	0.258	0.316	0.445	0.331	104
Yunel Escobar
Bill James	623	159	8	6	10.40%	12.20%	0.097	0.313	0.285	0.366	0.382	0.333	108
RotoC	686	150	8	5	9.90%	11.70%	0.092	0.309	0.284	0.363	0.376	0.333
Marcel	544	131	9	5	9.40%	13.20%	0.104	0.299	0.273	0.350	0.378	0.326	103
Fans (46)	632	163	11	6	9.80%	12.30%	0.111	0.310	0.286	0.363	0.396	0.340	108
Average	621	151	9	6	9.88%	12.35%	0.101	0.308	0.282	0.361	0.383	0.333	106
Edwin Encarnacion
Bill James	474	111	22	2	9.30%	19.10%	0.219	0.273	0.258	0.335	0.477	0.350	121
RotoC	572	119	25	2	9.00%	19.40%	0.218	0.280	0.266	0.339	0.484	0.358
Marcel	417	90	18	2	9.40%	20.30%	0.201	0.257	0.244	0.321	0.444	0.334	109
Fans (27)	454	104	20	3	9.00%	19.90%	0.194	0.267	0.252	0.324	0.446	0.335	104
Average	479	106	21	2	9.18%	19.68%	0.208	0.269	0.255	0.330	0.463	0.344	111
Rajai Davis
Bill James	430	116	4	39	6.00%	14.40%	0.094	0.327	0.287	0.336	0.381	0.324	102
RotoC	653	141	5	51	5.20%	15.80%	0.100	0.322	0.279	0.322	0.379	0.320
Marcel	524	134	6	43	5.70%	17.40%	0.108	0.322	0.277	0.324	0.385	0.323	101
Fans (24)	587	159	4	44	5.50%	16.90%	0.085	0.336	0.286	0.331	0.371	0.322	95
Average	549	138	5	44	5.60%	16.13%	0.097	0.327	0.282	0.328	0.379	0.322	99
Juan Rivera
Bill James	409	103	15	1	6.80%	13.10%	0.174	0.278	0.270	0.324	0.444	0.334	109
Marcel	485	115	17	2	6.80%	14.20%	0.167	0.266	0.259	0.311	0.426	0.320	99
Fans (25)	496	124	17	1	7.10%	13.70%	0.156	0.279	0.269	0.323	0.425	0.325	97
Average	463	114	16	1	6.90%	13.67%	0.166	0.274	0.266	0.319	0.432	0.326	102
	PA	H	HR	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+

I'm not quite sure what to make of these Rotochamp people. Quite bullish in most instances but very conservative in others. Witchcraft is tricky, y'all. Let's go one at a time.

• I cannot say I have a good grasp on the expectations for Jose Bautista in 2011. Just about anything halfway decent is good enough, right? Even the most conservative projection noted here is still a fistful of house money, so let's just say 28-30 home runs is plenty and move on quietly.
  
• All systems agree: Travis Snider is the Jays second best hitter! I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Decent power numbers across the board but home run fluctuations due to playing time. Now let's all close our eyes and pretend his health record is somewhat awful as we cheer him into a meat coma.
  
• In spite of projecting Lind to play 8 days a week in order to amass more than 700 plate appearances, the Rotochamps are very conservative with Lind. 25 home runs? Sure, whatever. Just don't make so many bloody outs.
  
• If I told your three years ago that Aaron Hill would emerge as a 20-25 home run threat but no better than league average overall, no way you believe me. No. Way. But that is pretty much all he projects as. Scary. Miss u, line drives.
  
• League average offense from Yunel is more than enough. His glove makes the rest okay. I hope new manager John Farrell can get his walk rate out of the Canadian Customs lockup.
  
• Edwin Encarnacion is the EEnigma! As Ian the Blue Jay Hunter astutely points out, this is a man in need of a full time job. Ian has a money quote from Alex Anthopoulos regarding The EEnigma's breakout chances. The math nerds all agree: the power is not in doubt.
  
• That sure is a lot of stolen bases. No matter how many he swipes, too many Blue Jays fans (like me) are going to have a really hard time adjusting to seeing someone caught stealing over and over. Not that Davis is inefficient, but you can't steal tonnes of bases without going with some regularity. Science!
  
• Juan Rivera is a poor fielding Aaron Hill. Vernon Wells, in other words.

I'm interested to hear the opinions you nerds who congregate in this corner of the blogosphere. Does this method give you hope or bum you out? Interested in seeing the results for the pitching staff? Later this week I will make that happen, not before I compare the results above with the vaunted PECOTA system released today. Nerd chills all around!

Thanks to Fangraphs for all the projection goodness.