Subtracting the Bear

It's Friday and it's suddenly cold as balls. A few random tidbits to pass around. Some slight, some otherwise.

That Time of Year

Yes, Spring Training is winding down, which means it is time for Rich Lederer to unveil his annual pitcher categorization post. Always an enjoyable day, though Blue Jays fans should look at it with some measure of concern. Lederer combined all innings from 2007 to 2009 to give a more complete profile of the pitchers.

As usual, the upper right quadrant spells out the keys to goodness pretty clearly. Ground balls, strikeouts, minimal walks. One of the reasons I like this post so much is it shows the true qualities that make Roy Halladay one of the best. The only pitcher to eliminate 15% of his own batters (strikeouts minus walks divided by batters faced) while inducing ground balls from more than 50% of his opposition. As always, ground balls don't turn into home runs very easily, this seems like a logical standard to set.

For the current Jays staff, the outlook isn't so rosy*. Brian Tallet ranks as one of the worst starters in baseball, landing in the dreaded bottom left corner. Just 8% of K-BB/BF and a mere 38% ground ball rate. Good thing he's only the nominal fifth starter! Whoops, third starter Brandon Morrow sports nearly identical numbers as Tallet, thanks to his complete inability to throw strikes. As a fly ball pitcher, he really, really, needs to eliminate the walks if he's to even approach respectability.

Ricky Romero isn't set up quite so poorly thanks to his heady ground ball numbers. He misses far more bats than some of the other wormburners in his section (Fausto Carmona, Chein-Ming Wang) and a slight decrease in walks could push our boy RR into the quadrant of greatness and riches.

Good signs or portents of doom? Both Shaun Marcum and Scott Richmond(!) rank as good strikeout guys dogged by persistent fly balls. Scott Richmond will fight for the remainder of his nascent big league career to keep the ball in the yard, while Shaun Marcum is the Opening Day starter we can all get behind. Strikeouts are sexy!

* - I should note, nay I MUST note, that Dustin McGowan's numbers land him in the super exclusive upper right column. Astounding! His strikeout numbers sneak up on you, as it turns out. Good for him, good for us. Hurry back Dusty!

SIERA Grande

Staying with the rotational audit, I finally threw some numbers into J's SIERA calculator. Is it a better ERA predictor than FIP et al? Who cares!! Let's see SIERA says about the current Jays starting crop.

Name	SO	PA	BB	GB	FB	PU	SIERA	tERA	xFIP	FIP	ERA
Shaun Marcum	123	630	50	192	176	17	4.021	4.38	4.24	4.46	3.39
Ricky Romero	141	771	79	286	141	12	4.180	4.67	4.09	4.33	4.30
Brandon Morrow	63	313	44	76	87	9	4.622	5.10	4.89	5.05	4.39
Marc Rzepcynski	60	261	30	85	47	0	3.799	4.62	3.70	4.14	3.67
Brian Tallet	120	717	72	185	220	14	4.662	4.98	4.93	4.68	5.32
Total	507	2692	275	824	671	52	4.353	4.75	4.37	4.53	4.21

Note the "total SIERA" you see comes from the total components posted while the xFIP etc are just averages. Does this mean we can expect the Jays starters to give up 4.5 runs per 9 innings? With the potentially lousy defense behind them that would go down as a mild victory. Again, I'm not too sure what to make of SIERA and what we can expect from this crop of starts (R-Zep is awesome!) but it's just more to chew on, I suppose.

There Comes a Time

I used to really like Minus the Bear. I saw them for the first time in 2003 at the Reverb Rivoli, at which time I observed them imbibing incredible amounts of Jack Daniels for such a technical band. As an unabashed Dave Knudson acolyte, I dove right into their early records with gusto.

Sadly, I think my time with Minus The Bear is over. I just can't get into the whole epic prog-rock thing from outer space. The live show always left me cold since only one guy in the band can sing, but the records always hold my attention. The current direction might just leave me in the dust. Thanks MtB, it's been a slice.

Update: I just realized the MtB show was at the Rivoli, not the Reverb. Smaller and more credible! I drank a lot that night. Sigh.

Quickly

• I added a newish Jays blog to the link roll at your right. Welcome A Blue Jay with a Machine Gun. While I don't agree, per se, with their stance on Lyle Overbay, they're gearing up nicely for the season. Reasoned posts without feeling too familiar, always a tough balancing act. Check out Infield Fly if you don't already, they too are nearing mid-season form.
  
• Joe Poz wrote an interesting piece on Ichiro, ifyoucanbelieveit. He calls him unique; I prefer to think of him as a singularity.
  
• Wezenball ranks Jack Morris as one of the worst Opening Day starters in history. But you already knew that.
  
• The Walkoff Walk Furious Five podcast made its return! Rob was out with a Fierstein and couldn't participate so DMac bravely (and drunkenly?) stepped in. Baseball talk always feels good.

Internal Affairs

There's been a lot of talk recently surrounding the issue of booing and hating on players. I feel like my position on this is quite clear, no need to rehash it again today. The other side of this coin is the blind faith and/or limitless rope phenomenon - player X is a "valued contributor" that merely needs time to get on track. I don't exactly subscribe to this school of thought either.

As I see it, building a team/contender/profitable on-field commodity is a never-ending process. Those in charge must constantly consider and reconsider if the man they're paying to do a job is the best choice at in that role. It started this winter, when the "Scott Rolen is overpaid" chorus grew loudest. After I made my impassioned case that Scott Rolen earned his paycheck and more, wundercommenter Torgen pointed out that not only is Scott Rolen great, there isn't an immediate option that would step in to that role even remotely as well.

Stoeten of Drunk Jays Fans today brought up a very interesting point regarding Brian Tallet's tenuous spot in the rotation. (A point I was bouncing around my head on the subway ride to work. Damn you speedy Dutch bastards!) He may not last long there for two reasons: there is another role he can fill better than the current placeholder while there are plenty of people behind him that can do his job nearly as well.

Jesse Carlon's pitched exceptionally well for the Jays these last two seasons though he's run into a rough patch of late. For the season the defense has propped him up a little, shaving a full run off his ERA. Here in May however, his ERA and FIP are nearly identical, sitting right on 6.00. Carlson's a fly ball pitcher who's strikeouts are down, contact is up and whiffy swings are down. His BABIP is still too low though his strand rate is coming back to the norm. In other words, he's becoming a regular, run-of-the-mill bullpen arm rather than a Blue Jays penbot from beyond the moon.

I don't come to bury Jesse Carlson, but if the Jays are to continue their success; they must make tough decisions like this. We as fans--especially as it relates to joyless roles such as spot starter or lefty specialist--can only hope the organization makes the right one that will ensure continuous improvement. Keeping Scott Rolen made sense as he's a gift from god, one not easily replaced internally, externally, or galactically. Jesse Carlson is easily replaceable, as are Brian Tallet's starts. For the good of the club we should be willing to consider it.

Other Stuff Quickly

• The psychopaths at Fangraphs have done it again. Now freely available for your perusal: pitch type linear weights! What this tells us: basically how good many runs a given pitch provides compared to average. As usually, I have no idea where they derive these numbers but they're sure fun to look at! Roy Halladay saves 3 runs per 100 snaps of his mighty curveball for example. His fastball's been his worst pitch this year according to these findings. Same with Scott Richmond: excellent results with his slider are often given right back with his fastball. Wanna know why Brett Cecil's here to stay? Positive results with all four of his pitches, most notably his curveball. His sample size is tiny but I surely don't care.
  
• Lesley Visser hates fun and shrimp.
  
• Beyond the Box Score tracks UZR by age. Just a quick reminder that Alex Rios is 28 and Vernon Wells is 30. Their best defensive days are behind them. So much for moving Rios to centerfield. Dammit.
  
• On the Walkoff Walk Furious Five podcast this week we discussed Steve Phillips inane comments regarding Carlos Beltran. I may be of the opinion that Carlos Beltran is amazing. The playoff probability added post from the weekend featured THREE Mets in the top 5 in the NL. The Mets have an unbelievable core surrounded by shitty, replacement level players. That doesn't mean they aren't fun to watch though! In fact, I'll be live blogging their game against the mighty Dodgers tonight for the Score. Come by and say demeaning things about Juan Pierre. It's good for the soul.