Showing posts with label link dump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label link dump. Show all posts

Friday, March 26, 2010

Subtracting the Bear


It's Friday and it's suddenly cold as balls. A few random tidbits to pass around. Some slight, some otherwise.

That Time of Year


Yes, Spring Training is winding down, which means it is time for Rich Lederer to unveil his annual pitcher categorization post. Always an enjoyable day, though Blue Jays fans should look at it with some measure of concern. Lederer combined all innings from 2007 to 2009 to give a more complete profile of the pitchers.

As usual, the upper right quadrant spells out the keys to goodness pretty clearly. Ground balls, strikeouts, minimal walks. One of the reasons I like this post so much is it shows the true qualities that make Roy Halladay one of the best. The only pitcher to eliminate 15% of his own batters (strikeouts minus walks divided by batters faced) while inducing ground balls from more than 50% of his opposition. As always, ground balls don't turn into home runs very easily, this seems like a logical standard to set.

For the current Jays staff, the outlook isn't so rosy*. Brian Tallet ranks as one of the worst starters in baseball, landing in the dreaded bottom left corner. Just 8% of K-BB/BF and a mere 38% ground ball rate. Good thing he's only the nominal fifth starter! Whoops, third starter Brandon Morrow sports nearly identical numbers as Tallet, thanks to his complete inability to throw strikes. As a fly ball pitcher, he really, really, needs to eliminate the walks if he's to even approach respectability.

Ricky Romero isn't set up quite so poorly thanks to his heady ground ball numbers. He misses far more bats than some of the other wormburners in his section (Fausto Carmona, Chein-Ming Wang) and a slight decrease in walks could push our boy RR into the quadrant of greatness and riches.

Good signs or portents of doom? Both Shaun Marcum and Scott Richmond(!) rank as good strikeout guys dogged by persistent fly balls. Scott Richmond will fight for the remainder of his nascent big league career to keep the ball in the yard, while Shaun Marcum is the Opening Day starter we can all get behind. Strikeouts are sexy!

* - I should note, nay I MUST note, that Dustin McGowan's numbers land him in the super exclusive upper right column. Astounding! His strikeout numbers sneak up on you, as it turns out. Good for him, good for us. Hurry back Dusty!

SIERA Grande


Staying with the rotational audit, I finally threw some numbers into J's SIERA calculator. Is it a better ERA predictor than FIP et al? Who cares!! Let's see SIERA says about the current Jays starting crop.




































































































NameSOPABBGBFBPUSIERAtERAxFIPFIPERA
Shaun Marcum12363050192176174.0214.384.244.463.39
Ricky Romero14177179286141124.1804.674.094.334.30
Brandon Morrow6331344768794.6225.104.895.054.39
Marc Rzepcynski60261308547 03.7994.623.704.143.67
Brian Tallet12071772185220144.6624.984.934.685.32
Total5072692275824671524.3534.754.374.534.21

Note the "total SIERA" you see comes from the total components posted while the xFIP etc are just averages. Does this mean we can expect the Jays starters to give up 4.5 runs per 9 innings? With the potentially lousy defense behind them that would go down as a mild victory. Again, I'm not too sure what to make of SIERA and what we can expect from this crop of starts (R-Zep is awesome!) but it's just more to chew on, I suppose.

There Comes a Time


I used to really like Minus the Bear. I saw them for the first time in 2003 at the Reverb Rivoli, at which time I observed them imbibing incredible amounts of Jack Daniels for such a technical band. As an unabashed Dave Knudson acolyte, I dove right into their early records with gusto.

Sadly, I think my time with Minus The Bear is over. I just can't get into the whole epic prog-rock thing from outer space. The live show always left me cold since only one guy in the band can sing, but the records always hold my attention. The current direction might just leave me in the dust. Thanks MtB, it's been a slice.

Update: I just realized the MtB show was at the Rivoli, not the Reverb. Smaller and more credible! I drank a lot that night. Sigh.

Quickly

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Relax and Take Notes

Biting the Hand is Easy When it No Longer Feeds
Far behind and out of the loop is where you'll find me, thus the two day-old obvious reference in the title. How about a quick-ish spin around the Jaysdial?

Brett Cecil and the Futility of Spring


So Brett Cecil chopped up his finger, can't throw his curve and now finds himself on the outside looking in? For some reason I really don't buy this. There is much to be said for the Grand Plan of AA and his cohorts, none of which likely boils down to "who pitches the best in three inning intervals in March."

Call me crazy or just a guy restating the obvious, but spring seems to be about health more than anything. As in, they know who's coming north and who's destined for the PCL or worse long before spring pitches are thrown in anger. What kind of business decision is made on the strength of 12-15 pointless innings? No good kind, that's for sure.

The supposed drama is good for column inches and motivating the players with the fear of God; there's no way one bad, chicken-impaired start by Brett Cecil is the lone factor between him making the big club. I suppose that goes for hitters, too. Can they (or should they) make big decisions based on the smattering of fine-tuning at bats in the spring? I'd like to assume the legwork on these decisions is long finished.

Frasor Rumors Persist, Grow Silly


As enjoyable and relatively valuable as the foshed-up Sausage King is; no way the Cubs trade a stud shortstop prospect for him. Sorry friends, as exciting as that thought may be, nobody, NOT EVEN THE CUBS, is that stupid. Frasor throws strikes and would do well for a year in the NL Central. However, losing a player with success in the low minors at a young age is too scary for most teams to consider, even with a potential first rounder coming right back in compensation.

Not only does it seem silly to overpay for a highly replaceable (albeit talented) right-handed relieving arm, it represents a move in direct opposition to current convention baseball wisdom. In other words, look for a shrewd team to cobble together a roster out of graying thirty somethings working on below-market contracts and somehow steal the World Series in about three years.

Wellness!


With a serious hat tip to Vancouver Fan Boy #1 Dave from Go Jays Go, I present a very brief video of the Tiny Tim Collinsicum working out in a funky, unusual way. I expressed my interest in these new style exercises a few weeks ago, it's pretty exciting to see them put to good use by a young guy whose very survival in baseball depends on getting the very most out of his normal human-sized body.



You can learn a lot about a person by their reactions to specific, divisive items. If a person watches the power-building workouts and suggests "yo, grab some weight or sit down fag!" then we probably shouldn't hang out. If a man prefers the blandly obvious Tim "Tom" Collins nickname to the brimming-with-hope-and-awesomeness moniker "COLLINSICUM (c/o Drunk Jays Fans) we could still be friends, we just don't see things the same way.

Straight Up Listikillin

  • In the wake of Frasor trade talk, the value of Jeremy Accardo and Casey Janssen came up on John Lott of the National Post's twitter. The value of Casey Janssen? Nil. Word is he's a real prince, but one that doesn't miss nearly enough bats for my liking. He was pretty dreadful last year, I'll be amazed if he makes this team. Though the power of remaining options can never be overstated.
  • In spite of what I said above, could Mike McCoy play his way onto the Jays? No fucking way! Too many incumbents in front of him, including Randy Ruiz. Over Clarence's undead body.
  • Aaron Ciba = Rod Barajas in a younger body? Go Deep of GTFO!
  • This is pretty great.
  • So was this, as much as it could be anyway.

AP image courtesy of Daylife

Friday, January 22, 2010

Coupla Fridays


Hooray! The week is over and here comes the weekend! (And, in my case, a trip to Ottawa for some frozen debauchery.) Want to ruin your weekend before it even begins? Consider this late addition to our Podunk Times series, a quote about ex-Mancrush Brett Cecil.
Growing up, Cecil rooted for the Yankees and watched players like Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriquez.

A few years later, he is pitching against the very same players.
We really could've been something Brett.

Attendance Issues


An anonymous commenter came late to the attendance party I held a few weeks back. This commenter made an interesting suggestion:
What about looking at it in terms of the amount spent by each organization in relation to the number of spectators each team has at home games.
Interesting but I don't think there's a connection to make there. The correlation between winning and spending is weak enough, as is the connection between winning and attendance. Removing the common bond of "winning" should only complicate matters. If anything, fans are less likely to trek to see and expensive underperforming club over a predictably shitty team.

The ever-excellent DRays Bay published a series of three posts on attendance the zillion factors that influence it. They consider regional income among other things. One really interesting point/stat is Att+. Consider their definition:
Much like the statistic OPS+, Att+ (or "Attendance Plus") is a measure of how a team's attendance figure compared to the league average for that season. One-hundred is league average; scores lower than 100 are below league average and scores higher are above average
Cool stuff. For shits and giggles, the Jays average Att+ for the decade
is 83, or 17 percent below league average. Tied with the Twins, just behind the A's and Reds. Two of those teams made the playoffs on a semi-consistent basis. Don't believe them when they say this isn't a baseball town.

Awesome image courtesy of BlogTO contributor Jonathon Castellino

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Shooting Donkeys in a Barrell


Adam Dunn just can't resist a little shot at Toronto when discussing interleague play:
I say just stick to the rivalry games and eliminate all the useless interleague games...people don't care about Washington against Toronto. They do care about Washington against Baltimore. So keep them and dump the rest.
Nobody cares about the Nationals Adam. Only soulless mercenaries looking for the best one year deal they can muster give a shit about the Washington Nationals shitshow. At least Dunn has the good sense to come correct later in the Stark's piece:
"It gets you out of your comfort zone," Dunn said. "You've got to learn new pitchers, and, personally, I don't like that. Believe me, I could do without seeing Roy Halladay. But I've got a feeling I'm going to have to face him."
Face him and get pwned you will, fat man.

Around the Way

  • Speaking of Halladay, check out Mop Up Duty's awesome retrospective on his evolution.
  • Bluebird Banter has a nice piece on Cito. As I think about it, I like that Cito just lets the guys go out and play, for the most part. I'm not necessarily in favor of pinch hitting but defensive subs I'm all for. I don't like his refusal to jostle the lineup from time to time because I don't think it hurts. Not for nothing, Alex Rios and Vernon Wells are 2-3 in the league in outs made. Sayin'
  • Joe Posnanski believes Roy Halladay can win 30 games this year. WHO ARE WE TO ARGUE?
  • According to Rutger Hauer Claws, Vernon Wells is damn near the nicest guy around. I swore I read somewhere that Vernon's greatest athletic achievement was leading his high school football team onto the field at Texas Stadium. I should now swear that I'm an idiot because it's not true. There was a "wacky" interview of Vernon by Nicki Reyes recently in which Vernon stated he hasn't had a career baseball highlight yet. I found that interesting. All the reasons people dislike Wells around here seem to be the same reasons I do. He doesn't take himself too seriously and clearly focuses on team success. Had he said "Mo Rivera walk-off in 2006" I wouldn't have been mad.
  • Thinking of listening to L'Homme Du Sport's podcast in which he discusses Lost? Don't. Love Simmons, but his steadfast refusal to "get" Lost belies his obvious intelligence (then again, he watches a shit-tonne of idiotically exploitative "reality" TV.) Really Bill, Jack's lack of post-concussion symptoms is a sticking point for you? THE FUCKING ISLAND MOVES IN AND OUT OF TIME AND YOU NEED TO CRASH A PLANE TO GET THERE. There's more going on there Billy boy, try to keep up.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Four Letter Madness


I'm such a sucker. Anytime ESPN (or any big media conglomerate) forms a list, they do it with the intention of generating controversy and page views. Any omission, any oversight sends a basement dweller such as myself scrambling to cheese-stained laptop to spew my venom over the latest travesty.

So I realize I'm just feeding the beast, but I can't (can not!) let Karl Ravech get away with saying Nick Markakis is the best right fielder in baseball. ESPN's Web Gem video based on PECOTA projections selects Nick Markakis as their best RF in baseball. I love Nick Markakis, as you well know, but defense is Alex Rios's whole deal! Without defense, Alex Rios is just another chump swinging at sliders in the dirt. Dewan's plus/minus, UZR, Probabilistic Model of Range, they all favor Rios. The Hardball Times's outfield arm tools show Markakis generated more outs in 2008 from right, but when Alex's time in center factors in, forget it.

I'm not saying Rios is a better player than Markakis, though I've basically said as much in the past, and I realize that ESPN's in-house stat source BP rated Roccopolous higher, but Alex Rios is CERTAINLY a better right fielder. Than everyone with two names, anyway.

Other Things

  • Round 2 of the Mop Up Duty Superduper Blogger Feedbag went up today. Nowhere else can you get insight like mine, when asked what I would do were I in JP's shoes: I have no idea.
  • Parkes wonders aloud if Cito's maybe a little crazy. I like Cito, but I agree that he's said some crazy stuff this spring. While it's hardly a popular position, Cito certainly got an undue amount of praise last year. Hopefully he doesn't WAMCO this years lineup, considering how up in the air the batting order must be. I just wish Parkes would let Scott Rolen's contract go. He doesn't make that much, my friend.
  • Say it Ain't Joe. Just like with Accardo, player options trump options on the bench.
  • Since you have nothing better to do on a Tuesday night, I'll give you two great ways to kill some time. First, hit the Blue Jay Hunter's live chat at 9pm. I can never make it because of my weekly basketball run/profuse perspiration outing, but I try to follow on my phone when I'm en route. Then, at 11pm Eastern Standard Time, tune into the very first Walkoff Walk Furious Five Podcast. 15 minutes in heaven with the dulcet tones of Kris, Rob, and MAYBE somebody else. Just sayin.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Saturday Kickabout


It's only a matter of time now. Very, very soon the fake games held in a fake place are no more, and the real stuff rolls. How about some lazy news delivered lazily on a lazy weekend?
  • Most of the hard-charging prospective employees of the Toronto Blue Jays were given a Vegas vacation consolation prize for all their hard work and tater-totting this spring. Some say Joe Inglett and his options are on the outside looking in. Shoulda been you Bautista.
  • God Bless the Bottom of the Order. The artist formerly known as /a takes down a tweedy professor's dismissive downward glances at sports fans. The author of the piece believes we shouldn't waste our time watching sports when we can consume great art and literature, like his new book! How convenient.
  • Also linked in the BotO post is an amazing article regarding Ichiro and the idea of leadership. Roy Halladay improves the careers, nay, lives of those around him just by being who he is. These guys are pros, save the rah rah stuff for Friday Night Lights. Which has been renewed, much to the delight of cougar-enthusiasts and the chagrin of people who like crap. I don't watch the show often but I recognize it's survival is integral to the betterment of mankind.
  • Yup, Manny's awesome
Of course, because I'm a glutton for punishment, self-loathing, and complaint, I must point Fangraphs organizational rankings wrapped up this week. I know it's just one man's opinion, and complaining about things beyond our control does nothing, but the top three teams were as follows:
  1. Boston
  2. Tampa Bay
  3. New York
Well fuck. As they say on the aforementioned Friday Night Lights:

Clear eyes, full hearts, LET'S BOOZE

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Sports Math


A quick study of the general sporting landscaping reveals one ultimate truth: there is a direct correlation between casual gambling and general interest. Hardly earth-shattering, but vest people's interest and you've got their attention. March Madness is fun, but I've been so immersed in fantasy drafts I haven't really given more than a passing thought. Maybe baseball should develop a more cheek-to-cheek relationship with bookies to increase it's TV exposure? That went so well last time, right? On the most basic, fundamental level betting on baseball is pure insanity. You get what you deserve if that's how you get your pulse racing.

Regarding fantasy drafts; twenty people in a pool with twenty roster spots will take years off your life.

Sporadic Information Relayed Quickly

  • 3:10 to Joba's Better Know a Prospect series keeps rolling on, and I was lucky enough to contribute! Everyone's 2010 mancrush Brett Cecil was my subject, check it out and make sure those Yankee fans keep their slimy digits off Cecil until at least 2018.
  • Rocco plays the bass? Who knew? I'm sure he's a straight up U2 guy, though a small part of me thinks about him playing the intro to Impact in front of his locker.
  • I don't think not pitching for Canada will cost Scott Richmond his shot in the rotation, I think Scott Richmond's inexperience, lack of stuff, and the presence of better options will keep him out of the rotation.
  • Too bad for Cuba. Couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of guys who rely on distraction and mindgames to win. Fuck. Them.

Thursday, February 26, 2009

CHONE Bones Jays


What a shock. Another projection system, another frightening Jays win total. CHONE reaches a new low, establishing the Jays as a 75 win team. Le Sigh.

Good old CHONE figures the Yanks for 97 wins and the Sox for 96. You can read the full list here, as well as their power ranking that ranks the Jays 12th. Whatever.

Links Cause I'm Lazy


They're actually playing baseball, like right now! I'll attempt to have something interesting to say about tomorrow. No promises.

Friday, February 20, 2009

I Saved Latin, What the Hell did You Ever Do?


The first Rocco Report of the spring! Rocco's in camp doing (and saying) Rocco-type things. Though he was only ranked as the 20th most important on the Sox roster by the Boston Globe, any team that employs brittle Seminole JD Drew and bitter semi-old guy Mark Kotsay is going to need all the outfield help they can get. Though it seems Rocco is taking it slow, exempting himself from certain conditioning exercises.

Rocco needs all our support, as he's down one key backer these days. I understand where our friend David Chalk is coming from; he's a Ray through and through. Rocco walked away from Tampa, and he left David's love behind. That's okay, he'll always be welcome around here.

Other stuff

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Weekend Buncheso'stuff

It's the weekend, it's almost Christmas; my least favorite time of year. At its heart, Christmas is a time to appreciate the under-appreciated, like hotter than you think Sinead O'Conner. An everlasting Irish agitator, she wrote some songs (no joke: nothing compares 2 U is a track. There's a lot there), is/was political defiantly, refused to perform on the same show as Andrew Dice Clay, tore up a picture of the Pope, and pissed people off at every turn. Here's to you Sinead, my pants are the real enemy.

Back to Baseball


The other day I wrote a post at Walkoff Walk about fielding being the new darling of Moneyball - underpriced and undervalued. The Mariners were my example of a team that shored up their defense at low cost. Turns out they're taking this whole run prevention thing seriously and hired the right manager. New boss Don Wakamatsu noticed poor results for groundball machine Roy Corcoran and wants to fix it (via U.S.S Mariner):
I look at Corcoran, and opposing hitters averaged .283 against him," Wakamatsu said. "But he had a four-to-one ratio of ground balls (to fly balls). Did they find every hole?

"The fact is that we have to catch more ground balls. I want to bring these kinds of statistics to the coaches and players. It's a way to get better. Maybe it just means we need to shade the middle more, or maybe we need to focus more on what specific hitters do against each of our specific pitchers.
Impressive talk from a manager, not the kind of thing I'd expect to hear out of Cito's mouth. Could it be that JP realized this years ago, thus assembling one of the best defensive squads in baseball? Nah, we wouldn't want to give him that kind of credit.

Speaking of defense, Raul Ibanez's comments regarding defensive stats are certainly interesting, if a little misguided. He offers the "I'm hitting it RIGHT AT people" rebuttal to his poor showing in each and every defensive metric. Sorry Raul, you come off intelligent and informed here, but slightly defensive. Ar Ar.

Weekend Links to Kill Some Time

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Work Sucks - 1238289791837th Edition



Work sure does suck, but the little things get us by. John MacDonald's sublime transfer to throw out Brian Roberts in the 9th inning for example. It made my heart sing and might be the only thing getting me through to Saturday.
  • Shaun Marcum being shut down for the year does not make my heart sing. It makes my heart leap into my throat in fact. The Ligament Pimp of Birmingham is on Marcum's case for the second time this year. I'm sure he's a nice guy, but getting to know him probably doesn't reflect well on your health.
  • Obviously Scott Rolen's offensive season has been somewhat disappointing. He's been swinging the bat well in September, just like every other month this season save one. That is right, Scott Rolen has posted exactly ONE sub.800 OPS this season. Unfortunately, the one month was so bad it killed his rate stats for the season. It was awful in a crazy, Johnny Mac, .477 OPS way. As the Jays blogger meme dictates I mention; Troy Glaus has posted 3 months of sub .800 OPS (but two full months over .900)
  • The Jays are playing the Red Sox AGAIN this weekend. I know Jays morale is a little low right now, and nobody wants to play spoiler, but I really hope the Jays take two of three from the Sox. I'd take great pleasure in seeing the Red Sox have to fly cross-country to face the Angels. Generally, fuck the Sox. Specifically too, if you have a couch people can't see under.
The final weekend series! This sucks. Hopefully I'll make it to Sunday's game, my final one of the year. I'll be Walkoff Walking in the meantime, please check it out. I had some fun last week, even picking on Yankees fans. Who doesn't enjoy that?

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Jays Gear Up For Divisional Rivals Ahead of All Stazzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

In order for the Jays to hit Cito's benchmark of .500 by the All Star break they need to take 5 of 6 from the O's & Yankees. Does this team strike you as one primed for a winning streak? Is a winning streak even possible at this point?

The Jays face Danial Cabrera tonight, which could go either way. He's had good performances against the Jays, but a hard-throwing right hander with control issues is the only kind of pitcher the Jays can do any damage against this year. He's coming off a good start, and seems to have moved past his wildness this season. One thing is for sure, going against McGowan tonight spells disaster for anyone lacking in the attention span department. Mmmmmm 8 pitch at bats all night long.

The ESPN compubot favors the Jays tonight for reasons beyond me. I wish I had the cold, calculated approach of Accuscore, because watching the Jays these days is torturous. The Jays continue to cruise along with a Luck factor of -5 and their stellar record in one run games is now 12-21. Groin punches that will surely continue all season long. Sigh.

Other Crap to Distract Us All

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

The End is Nigh


The end of our suffering anyway. The season has begun, the Jays are wounded and I'm already losing in my head-to-head pool. I'm pining for November. This time next week we'll be lamenting the slow start and asking for heads to roll celebrating a strong start to the season.

As an added bonus, watch for a new face around these parts. Jesse Barfield of Broken Dreams will crush us all with his powerful yet florid prose. The rest of us will be exposed as the ham-fisted hacks we truly are.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Fake Game Held Up by Fake Protest

Michael Jordan Doesn't Understand
Altruistic Millionaires stand up to exploitive masters, hold retirees and cranky sportwriters hostage.

And fair play to them. While it could be said that the average Japanese baseball fan isn't going to pack the Tokyo Dome to see Dave Magaden (Happy Best Former Mets! He banished cocaine to the land of Nails and Fruit), good for the Sox for looking out for their support staff.

The game eventually started, and Sal Fasano STOLE A BASE! He was promptly picked off second base, but still. Go on Sal. Shawn Marcum pitched in a minor league game and was lights out.

Elsewhere:This build up is killing me, and I know I'm not alone. Fear not Mr. Stieb, you've been doing a bang up job. Charge the batteries and come back strong.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Everyone Loves a Linker


Actual (fake) games start next week, and content continues to spew forth from the blogosphere at an unprecedented rate. Some things that caught my eye....I would be remiss if I didn't mention a certain full-time tabloid star, part-time actress who posed in a certain magazine paying homage to a certain dead actress who did the exact same routine 45 years earlier. If I were to link to it, not that I am, it would equal parts life affirming and inappropriate for work and/or a baseball blog.

Monday, February 4, 2008