Knee Deep in the Dead

"The revamped bullpen looks great, leading MLB with 32 strikeouts compared to just 10 walks (two intentional). Strangely, the most significant contributions have come from holdovers Shawn Camp, Jason Frasor and Marc Rzepczynski." Some genius, ESPN Power Rankings.

Well that was unpleasant! 7 walks is no fun, nor is it anything worth dwelling on. Hoisting blame onto the manager seems easy enough though I can't entirely fault him, Octavio Dotel's ROOGY status notwithstanding. Walking 7 guys — seven SEATTLE FREAKING MARINERS — falls on those futilely hurling the pitches.

With that blame in mind...umm...wow...I knew this wouldn't be easy but..ummm Dave: we need to talk.

Look, Dave, Davey, bubby, you know nobody supports you like I do. I take lumps for you, I kill my credibility for you. I stumped to make you the freaking closer! Unfortunately, the time has come for you to go.

When Brandon Morrow is due to return to the rotation, this team has a difficult decision to make. Considering their ongoing infatuation with a pitcher best described as liquid, Jo-Jo "Loud Outs" Reyes is likely to lose his starter's role. He, like you, is out of options. He, unlike you, walks fewer than 12 guys per 9 innings. Pretty much making you the odd man out.

Perhaps you can go and live with the nice family on the farm. Perhaps another family in the neighbourhood sees the good in you. Me, I'm done. I hope you figure it out one day, that you realize gigantic left-handed dudes who throw 95 don't really need to do much else. Either way Davey, it's been a slice.

Men Among Boys

I like the National League, I really do. Sure, watching pitchers hit is good for a laugh but I bear no ill will towards the Senior Circuit. The Giants are, by and large, deserving winners of the 2010 World Series Crown. At least I thought.

Blinded by the overt sexiness of the team and the cool NorCal locale, I blinded myself to the insanity (or is it inanity) of the National League West. Over a few days this offseason, teams in the National League West bolstered their playoff chances by signing Juan Uribe and Miguel Tejada. Uribe signed to a multi-year deal, if you can believe it.

Adding these players to your roster isn't evil, so to speak. But signing these creaky old out-machines to play shortstop every day is just about the craziest thing I've ever heard.

Both the Giants and Dodgers have playoff aspirations in 2011. To think they can field these two players at this crucial position makes me more than a little sick. Imagine! Imagine being able to think "I bet Juan Uribe is a good bet at short for next year at least, we can move him around the diamond at $7 mil a year beyond that. I guess." and not have it mean the death of your playoff chances.

Uribe and Tejada are formerly good players — even great, in Miggy's case — but expecting them to hold down such a key role during a push to the playoffs? No shot.

The Jays signed Alex Gonzalez to play shortstop at this time last year. Gonzalez is both younger and frankly better than Uribe and Tejada at this stage of their respective careers. The Gonzalez signing certainly wasn't made with a pennant in mind. That's the biggest difference - the Jays looked to a one year stopgap and potential flip piece. The Giants and Dodgers will likely hit these guys in the middle of the order¹.

Please don't take this ill-advised screed as support of expanded playoffs. It isn't. It is just my quarterly frustration with the Jays lot in life. A lot, if seismic shifts in the power structure of the ownership group are to be believed, that doesn't stand to improve greatly in the immediate future.

¹ - There is no basis of fact in that statement. It is for entertainment purposes only. They probably won't hit in the middle of the order. Probably.

Image courtesy of Flickr user Roadside Pictures

Scott Downs Joins the Chain Gang

During the late innings of last night's tilt with the Red Sox, Scott Downs pitched about as well as you can ask. He faced four hitters; striking out one and inducing three ground balls from the others. One man reached on an error but was quickly erased via a double play. Scott Downs is really, really good at his job - this much we know.

During my liveblog of the game, the question of re-signing Downs arose. We pondered what type of contract he might be offered (I prefer to think of Scott Downs as a gentleman of modest means. He wouldn't demand a big deal, he'd simply accept one of the many offers for his services.) Considering that, insanely, Brandon Lyon got a 3 year, $15 million dollar deal to not close for the worst team in baseball last winter, just about anything is in play. Lyon's pitched well enough this season (credit his wacky low HR rate), though not as well as Downs. How valuable does that make Downs? To the right team in the right (read: wrong) situation: very valuable. To the 2011 Blue Jays? Not so much.

The topic of reliever value is much debated around the nerdier end of the internet and known as bullpen chaining. I'll attempt to nutshell it: if you lose a reliever, his replacement doesn't come "off the street" in the form of a true replacement player.

If Kevin Gregg does down with an injury, you don't call up a Brad Mills or a Marc Rzepcynzki to be the closer, you call up Rommie Lewis or (God willing) Jeremy Accardo. When you call up that bullpen arm, they don't slot directly into the closer's role. Everybody just moves up the chain into a slightly higher leveraged role and you make due until the big man returns.

As such, unless the team finds itself requiring the extra boost a sure-thing stopper provides and is willing to pay for it, you have to let Scott Downs walk at the end of this season. The team is grooming David Purcey for a role similar to Downs' with a few other internal options and scrap heap finds lurking in the shadows. Even if a guy like Purcey comes in and doesn't pitch as well, the greater impact on the success of the season is minimal.

He's been a great Blue Jay for 5 years, but asking him leave big bags of money on the table is foolish and unlikely. He's 34 years old and this is his last deal. He might hang around for some Orosco years as he approaches 40, but his time in Toronto is nearly up.

Image courtesy of Reuters via Daylife

Memo From the Toronto Blue Jays Marketing Department

The Jays marketing department announced a new slogan for this season:

YOUR 2009 TORONTO BLUE JAYS: IT IS WHAT IT IS

I hate to get all gloom and doom after a series of extra inning losses on the road, but the tenor around the team is so different, so markedly different and depressive that even I can't keep my chin up. I won't discuss the possibility of Halladay being traded here because I don't know that I can. Things look rough. Rough enough for the National Post to run letters-to-the-sports editor in which clueless fans refer to the Jays as a "glorified farm team." What the fuck?

I'm a little worried and a lot disappointed over how much coverage the last week of hearsay has received compared to the action on the field. Even at the beginning of year when things were both hunky and dory there wasn't the crush of media attention. It sucks. But, as the marketing slogan says, it is what it is. The Jays will likely continue to be a pretty good team in a pretty tough situation. I'm not afraid of a lifetime of also-ran status, I'm afraid someone might just pull the plug.

Confrères and Cohorts

One thing I can certainly count on is Scott Rolen. Scott Rolen has a quote in a recent New York Times baseball blog Bats post that warms nearly every cockle of my heart. The post covers new video technology (Hit F/x) that tracks all movement on the field, including fielders, baserunners, and balls in play. Exciting stuff for a stats nerd, no?

When asked what he thought about the possibility of new metrics, Rolen stopped short of issuing the dreaded dismissive hand wank gesture. Scott Rolen is no hard-headed traditionalist lashing out from fear. Rolen instead crafted a thoughtful response (emphasis mine):

I don’t believe that baseball is a game that can be encapsulated that way. That’s the beauty of the whole game.

Impressive. Scott Rolen is more concerned with the aesthetics of baseball to worry about tedious number crunching. If I wasn't such a nerd, Rolen's eye for style would probably bring me to tears.

Saturday Kickabout

It's only a matter of time now. Very, very soon the fake games held in a fake place are no more, and the real stuff rolls. How about some lazy news delivered lazily on a lazy weekend?

• Most of the hard-charging prospective employees of the Toronto Blue Jays were given a Vegas vacation consolation prize for all their hard work and tater-totting this spring. Some say Joe Inglett and his options are on the outside looking in. Shoulda been you Bautista.
  
• God Bless the Bottom of the Order. The artist formerly known as /a takes down a tweedy professor's dismissive downward glances at sports fans. The author of the piece believes we shouldn't waste our time watching sports when we can consume great art and literature, like his new book! How convenient.
  
• Also linked in the BotO post is an amazing article regarding Ichiro and the idea of leadership. Roy Halladay improves the careers, nay, lives of those around him just by being who he is. These guys are pros, save the rah rah stuff for Friday Night Lights. Which has been renewed, much to the delight of cougar-enthusiasts and the chagrin of people who like crap. I don't watch the show often but I recognize it's survival is integral to the betterment of mankind.
  
• Yup, Manny's awesome

Of course, because I'm a glutton for punishment, self-loathing, and complaint, I must point Fangraphs organizational rankings wrapped up this week. I know it's just one man's opinion, and complaining about things beyond our control does nothing, but the top three teams were as follows:

1. Boston
2. Tampa Bay
3. New York

Well fuck. As they say on the aforementioned Friday Night Lights:

Clear eyes, full hearts, LET'S BOOZE

Dereliction of Duty

It's official. I'm done. The naysayers have said nay so loudly and so frequently, I've lost the urge to fight them. I'm not alone in my battle fatigue; the Drunks are Robert Graysmith-ing their way around the Rogers Centre, chasing whispers and innuendo at a breakneck pace. It's the Lord's work they're doing, but the payoff will only equal the journey's worth of tears. The charmingly opaque way Rogers runs the Jays has run right the fuck out of charm, like a post-Anchorman Will Farrell. No matter how blissfully unaware I try to remain, horseshit politics creeps in.

I'm seeing negativity where it doesn't really exist now, like the recent Batter's Box post arguing the merits of various GMs. A good and honest attempt to evaluate general managers instantly had me thinking all the wrong things. I wasn't satisfied with the realization that J.P. is a pretty middle of the road GM. I got hung up on the immensity of the task at hand, displayed in the most innocuous/devastating way possible. Average number of wins required to win the AL East over the last five years - 94.6. 4 wins more than the closest competitor. Average number of wins required to win the AL Wildcard over the last 5 years - 95.4. That is a lot to ask at the best of times, when the ownership starts playing stink pinky with their advertising revenues and equalization payments, I get sad.

Those of us that occupy the upper middle class of Blue Jays fandom are getting it from both sides. We die hard, quasi-informed fans suffer Rogers-flavored shit sandwiches gladly each year, only now we have the huddled masses to worry about. A Yahoo fantasy post (yes I'm desperately filling the void with fantasy advice columns) brought out the best criminally insane commenters to make consistent winning club sound like the 1969 Mets. I made my way through 125+ comments like the true masochist that I am, trying to take the LOLs and the calls for a salary cap in stride.

But I stand before you a broken man, hoping desperately that Spring Training will bring me back. Green grass, wind sprints, and oddly numbered jerseys can hopefully talk me off the edge.

On Choice

The cacophony of hand-ringing is reaching epic levels these days, as high profile DH-types and reclamation-styled pitching projects are signing much cheaper deals in far less desirable locales than sunny Toronto. The hand-ringing is such that, had these basement-dwelling molemen not masturbated their palmflesh off long ago, they would now be as fingerprint free as John Doe. Blame quickly falls to either JP or Rogers, for not being in on these bargain-basement sluggers or for slashing the payroll dramatically; leaving bored Jays fans fighting amongst themselves like angry Quebeckers at their Floridian retirement village's Yankee Swap.

The comments following a recent Drunk Jays Fans post reflect this anger, but also reveal some rational thought among frustrated Jays fans. Unless these lowish risk acquisitions blows all expectations out of the water, they are viewed as failures right from the start. When the price on Giambi falls considerably (to nearly Luol Deng levels of thievery, Giambi protecting Holliday is fine work indeed) the outcry explodes from the peanut gallery. If player X signed for Y, how come the Jays didn't sign him for Y + 1??? JP sucks, we're told. Rogers is cheap, we understand.

This thinking is obviously flawed. When teams league wide go into spending freezes, the price of a Giambi or Bradley is brought artificially low. If the Jays chime in with a slightly higher bid, the As or whomever else will come back slightly higher until Fat Slugger X's contract is no longer a steal but a liability.

The other side of the coin is choice. Most free agents go the mercenary route, especially if it they see that particular contract as their career Big One. But if they will be taking a deal well below expectations anyway, why not be choosy where you go? Giambi started his career in Oakland, perhaps he thought best to finish it there? Eckstein took less money to come here last season because he'd have the chance to play shortstop every day.

Pitchers can afford to pick their spots and, as Tomo Ohka & Victor Zambrano can attest, will always sign a cheap deal with a team that sports a big offense (which the 2007 Jays promised but did not deliver) or stands a very good chance of winning many games in spite of rather than thanks to their contribution (here's looking at you Penny). Limit the damage to 3-4 runs allowed in 5 innings of work most times out, grab a dozen wins, turn that into a Carlos Silva deal on the free market. Mr. Scrap Heap can laugh all the way to the golf course.

Of course it's lamentable that the Jays couldn't sign Giambi for less than they paid Eckstein last year, or half of what they pay Johnny Mac. In fact, I just died a little on both the inside and the outside. But there are too many factors at play to simply announce "management is incompetent" and be done with it. Besides, Adam Dunn is still out there, and now LOTS of people are saying he doesn't like baseball. He can't blacklist them all.

Jays Gear Up For Divisional Rivals Ahead of All Stazzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

In order for the Jays to hit Cito's benchmark of .500 by the All Star break they need to take 5 of 6 from the O's & Yankees. Does this team strike you as one primed for a winning streak? Is a winning streak even possible at this point?

The Jays face Danial Cabrera tonight, which could go either way. He's had good performances against the Jays, but a hard-throwing right hander with control issues is the only kind of pitcher the Jays can do any damage against this year. He's coming off a good start, and seems to have moved past his wildness this season. One thing is for sure, going against McGowan tonight spells disaster for anyone lacking in the attention span department. Mmmmmm 8 pitch at bats all night long.

The ESPN compubot favors the Jays tonight for reasons beyond me. I wish I had the cold, calculated approach of Accuscore, because watching the Jays these days is torturous. The Jays continue to cruise along with a Luck factor of -5 and their stellar record in one run games is now 12-21. Groin punches that will surely continue all season long. Sigh.

Other Crap to Distract Us All

• The Brewers guy on Bugs & Cranks is pretty amazing.
• Big League Stew digs up some bush league slit
• Mike the Mosher becomes Mike the Card Collector
• The O-Dog is the ultimate teammate
• Another development in the A-Rod/Madonna drama

Blue Jays Offence Hijacked, Somali Pirates Suspected

DISNEYFUCKINGLAND - The Toronto Blue Jays continued their mediocre run of play with a 6 -4 defeat at the hands of Eric Hinske and the Mouseketeers. The Jays scored 4 runs (two unearned) with a Vernon Wells home run the only highlight. In a desperate attempt to "manufacture" some scoring opportunities, Shannon Stewart and his .600 OPS were slotted into the number six spot. Designated hitter and proud owner of one extra base hit this season Matt Stairs brought his Punch and Judy approach to the third spot in the lineup. Curiously, team OPS leader and two-time all star Alex Rios was found sweeping sunflower seeds in the dugout rather than playing.

The only rational reason for this anemic output by the Blue Jays offence is pirates. Somali pirates. Realizing that the Gulf of Mexico offers far more obese tourists than the Gulf of Aden, the modern-day swashbucklers headed around the horn to Florida. There they found a bounty of wealthy ballplayers with their offensive outputs ripe for the picking.

The Jays organization made a largely ceremonial gesture in recent days, sending Frank Thomas off the plank amidst much fanfare in an attempt to appease the bloodthirsty butchers. The meager output of the Toronto side must be an attempt to keep the pirates at bay, in exchange for the release of their women and children.

Not a single member of the incumbent pirate organization in the Caribbean Sea was available for comment on this invading menace, as reports surfaced indicating the bulk of the group were attending a Bette Midler fanfest in Atlantic City.