Money Well Saved

(Editor's note: the bulk of this post was written before Rzepczynski walked Vlad Guerrero. All bets are now off.)

After my monocle came back from the cleaners, I impatiently waited for my pool boy to finish detailing my ornate encyclopedia collection. With my other houseman on a errand run (fetching foie-gras taco fixins) I took a break from shooting toonies with my Desert Eagle to read a Grantlands article from start to finish. Despite needing a shave halfway through, it was quite interesting.

This article was about the Moneyball revolution and what constitutes the new inefficiency. Building a bullpen on the cheap is key in this, as most of the people reading this site already know.

I later "saw" Scott Downs pitching for the Angels in an early-morning highlight pack (his name came up as my staff pantomimed each clip for my amusement, as per our morning routine). Heading over the Downs' Fangraphs page, I saw Scott Downs is doing Scott Downs-shaped things once again.

Downs currently owns a 65% ground ball rate, 3.25 FIP and strikeout to walk ratio of 2.2. Pretty good, yes? Interesting that Marc Rzepczynski's numbers are better across the board.

Rzep's 65.3%, 3.65 FIP, and 2.17 K/BB are pretay, pretay good. His swinging strike rate nearly doubles his former teammate. His numbers look even better when your consider 50% of his walks came in 2 outings and he's really a starter taking lumps as a reliever for the first time.

His numbers look worse when you play the arbitrary endpoints game and realize his June has been as bad as his May was good. But, do his credit, he works for free!

So few teams require high-priced relief talent to get them over the proverbial hump. Getting such talent below market price is hardly "the new Moneyball"; it just makes sense to keep costs low for roles which are easily filled without paying a premium.

As good as Scott Downs was (and is), wading into the free agent market to acquire a player like Downs just isn't smart. Which explains precisely why the Angels went ahead and did it. A middling team (sorry) like the Jays is fine with young player like Rzepczynski providing very similar service at a discounted price.

Image and life inspiration courtesy of Birds with Arms.. They are the wind beneath ourwings, amirite?

Scott Downs Joins the Chain Gang

During the late innings of last night's tilt with the Red Sox, Scott Downs pitched about as well as you can ask. He faced four hitters; striking out one and inducing three ground balls from the others. One man reached on an error but was quickly erased via a double play. Scott Downs is really, really good at his job - this much we know.

During my liveblog of the game, the question of re-signing Downs arose. We pondered what type of contract he might be offered (I prefer to think of Scott Downs as a gentleman of modest means. He wouldn't demand a big deal, he'd simply accept one of the many offers for his services.) Considering that, insanely, Brandon Lyon got a 3 year, $15 million dollar deal to not close for the worst team in baseball last winter, just about anything is in play. Lyon's pitched well enough this season (credit his wacky low HR rate), though not as well as Downs. How valuable does that make Downs? To the right team in the right (read: wrong) situation: very valuable. To the 2011 Blue Jays? Not so much.

The topic of reliever value is much debated around the nerdier end of the internet and known as bullpen chaining. I'll attempt to nutshell it: if you lose a reliever, his replacement doesn't come "off the street" in the form of a true replacement player.

If Kevin Gregg does down with an injury, you don't call up a Brad Mills or a Marc Rzepcynzki to be the closer, you call up Rommie Lewis or (God willing) Jeremy Accardo. When you call up that bullpen arm, they don't slot directly into the closer's role. Everybody just moves up the chain into a slightly higher leveraged role and you make due until the big man returns.

As such, unless the team finds itself requiring the extra boost a sure-thing stopper provides and is willing to pay for it, you have to let Scott Downs walk at the end of this season. The team is grooming David Purcey for a role similar to Downs' with a few other internal options and scrap heap finds lurking in the shadows. Even if a guy like Purcey comes in and doesn't pitch as well, the greater impact on the success of the season is minimal.

He's been a great Blue Jay for 5 years, but asking him leave big bags of money on the table is foolish and unlikely. He's 34 years old and this is his last deal. He might hang around for some Orosco years as he approaches 40, but his time in Toronto is nearly up.

Image courtesy of Reuters via Daylife

Hoof in Mouth Outbreak Imminent

The one thing even the most ardent J.P. bashers have in common with those of us that spend our days cradling his glorious nutsack is bullpen appreciation. One high-priced closer, one well-paid LOOGY-come-set up guy, one freak, and a cast of shitballers and never-wases combine to form a tight, effective, league-leading unit. With all the attention given to the movement of mop-up righties and the lack of rapid movement in the closer's fastball this week, is it time to worry about the stable back-end?

In a word, yes. I don't want to say the entire Jays bullpen is due to regress, but all signs point to a correction looming on the horizon. Two big factors have worked in the bullpen's favor in recent years: pitching very few innings and the excellent defense behind them. The defense isn't going anywhere, thankfully. A full season of Aaron Hill can only improve the Jays batted ball-to-out conversions, even if Scutaro returns to his career averages at short. One thing the bullpen will be asked to do this year is work more. Work long and hard. I'm not overly concerned with the rotation per se, but two of the newcomers share a predilection towards walks and high pitch counts. With extended exposure, some of inconsistencies are bound to come out in the wash.

Let's look a little closer, using the 2008 Dodgers bullpen for comparison's sake. Of course, the Dodgers made the playoffs but won fewer games than the Blue Jays. Their bullpen ERA was third in baseball behind our Blue Jays and the World fucking Champion Phillies.

	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	WHIP	Strand Rate	BABIP	FIP	ERA	ERA-FIP
2008 Jays	7.54	3.75	2.01	1.25	79.8%	.275	3.85	2.94	-0.91
2008 Dodgers	8.62	3.22	2.68	1.26	74.5%	.307	3.47	3.34	-0.13
2007 Jays	7.24	3.36	2.15	1.26	73.1%	.290	3.77	3.46	-0.31

What jumps out at you? The 2008 bullpen either made great use of the defense or got lucky as hell. The BABIP is under the baseline of .300, the strand rate is higher than average (75%) and the K/BB rate is lower than the year before. The biggest difference is ERA-FIP, showing how many runs the team allowed versus how many they "should" have allowed. A difference of more than half a run per game seems pretty severe. As a unit the Dodgers register more strikeouts yet fewer walks, stranded about the league average while dealing with a slightly above-average BABIP. In other words, with a little luck, they could be much better this year. The Jays, not so much.

If that didn't make you want to kill yourself quite enough, it gets worse. What about the individual pitchers? How did they each shake down in the past, and how do they look for 2009?

JP Demands More Lefties!	2007 E-F	2008 ERA	2008 FIP	2008 E-F	2008 BABIP	2008 Strand Rate	2009 Mean FIP (projected)
Scott Downs	-1.07	1.78	3.39	-1.60	.264	86.6%	3.67
Brandon League	-1.01*	2.18	4.16	-1.98	.271	85.7%	3.99
B.J. Ryan	-0.77*	2.95	3.68	-0.74	.285	78.7%	3.42
Jesse Carlson	N/A	2.25	3.80	-1.55	.235	86.6%	4.04
Shawn Camp	2.00^	4.12	3.21	0.91	.322	69.7%	3.97
Jason Frasor	1.41	4.18	4.55	-0.36	.259	72.6%	3.97
Brian Tallet	0.11	2.88	3.61	-0.74	.300	80.7%	4.10

Wow, that's a lot of nerdy shit. First things first, the * indicates a 2006 number due to insufficient innings in 2007. Shawn Camp's ^ comes from his 2007 season in Tampa Bay, where he was disgracefully bad. Before I go any further, I'll admit strand rates for relievers can be deceptive as it can be attributed to a repeatable skill.

That said, does Scott Downs strike you as a ticking timebomb? That strand rate is very high and his E-F went from fortunate to elephant-in-the-roomish. Did I mention he's 33 years old, and got knocked around last year as he tired and his curveball flattened? How about Ryan, who wasn't nearly as bad as he seemed in 2008, but still benefited from the defense behind him. The velocity concern is troubling though there is light at the end of that tunnel, I hope. P.S. He's 34.

Jesse Carlson and Brandon League are virtually the same guy: one pitch wonders for medium leverage situations. Though they both present as regression candidates, I'll give League the benefit of the doubt. His crazy velocity, his overwhelming ground ball numbers (a few more than normal are BOUND to sneak through), and his prototype pitcher's body. I really hope the league (and physics. .235 BABIP? See you in hell, seeing-eye grounder) doesn't catch up to Carlson's slider as he's a good story and a fun guy to watch.

Somehow Jason Frasor and Shawn Camp could make Cito look like a genius. Shawn Camp due to the clear signs he was better than it seemed last year. Jason Frasor's presence keeps Jeremy Accardo from spreading disease all across Southern Ontario, which makes Cito a hero for sending him off to douchebag central. I don't want to live in a world where Shawn Camp is being counted on in high leverage situations, numbers be damned.

Brian Tallet! I almost forgot Brian Tallet. Because he's utterly inconsequential! My time clearly has little or no value, just like the value of a 4th left handed pitcher in a major league bullpen. Congrats Brian Tallet, you are cold pasta salad.

So I guess we're fucked? Hardly. This is still a good group of complimentary relievers, being judiciously deployed by a bullpen master run into the ground by a glorified hitting coach. I kid, Cito, I kid. But we should all be concerned. Age, luck, and heavy work schedules could all conspire to catch up to the Jays this year. It won't be pretty. PLAYOFFS!!??!

1000 blessings and thanks to Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and the Brooks Baseball Pitch F/x Caravan of Chuckles.

WBC - The Scoundrel's Last Resort

GM Meetings - Done.

Winter Meetings - Done.

Long Hard Winter of Suffering - Only Just Begun.

The average offseason is nothing but pain and agony, but this winter offers a brief respite in the form of the World Baseball Classic. Cold, calculated corporate exercise designed to separate baseball fans from even more of their money? Of course! But this is a dot com not a dot org, who am I to judge? Besides, watching good players play baseball is good and good for you.

The astonishingly prolific Matt Synder of AOL's Fanhouse presented his dream lineup for Team America today, and did a damn fine job selecting his 30 superstars. This was his ideal team, so guys that aren't likely to play (Beckett & Halladay) were included simply because they're the best around. (I will quibble with his placement of Halladay toward the end of his starters list. Front and center sir!)

I liked a lot of his choices, from "sexy pick" Nick Markakis (well established as the Greek Rocco) to looking past Ryan Howard & Prince Fielder to select Lance Berkman's superior defense & switch hitting versatility as the backup first baseman. I'd take Brian Roberts over Pedroria and Kinsler because, in a word, fuck those two guys. It's also sad to think about J.J. Hardy condo shopping in Yorkville waiting for Spring Training to start thanks to pre-selected US Captain and grand inserter of butts-to-seats Derek Jeter. Again, quibbling.

As with most all star-type teams, the bullpen presents a unique challenge. Choosing between Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, and Jonathon Papelbon is the kind of problem I wish I had, but questions remain about these creatures of habit fitting into unfamiliar roles. To fill out his pen, Snyder rationally and reasonably selected Matt Capps, the very dusty closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Capps is an excellent control guy (7.80 Strikeout to walk ratio in 2008, third in baseball for players with 50 IP.) Excellent numbers for sure, but that leaves the American 'pen without a lefty. Synder addresses this point immediately, suggesting he'll take his chances with random left-handed Japanese bench guy X against Brad Lidge or the Papelboner. That point is as valid as they come, but I'll make a different suggestion: Scott Downs should be on the American WBC team.

Though Scott Downs's numbers came back to earth down the stretch in 2008, he still had a great year. He ranked 2nd among American relievers and second among lefties in terms of WPA/LI, with very little variation in high leverage situations. His K/BB ratio isn't great, but has remained consistently around 2 for his career. While he occasionally puts guys on, people simply don't hit the ball hard off him. His line drive rate was 12% in 2008, and he only allowed home runs on 6% of his fly balls; a number that only looks better when you realize he only surrenders fly balls about 20% of the time.

LOOGYs like Downs don't often get credit, they simply bounce around from team to team during their eternal careers. There's always a market for a situational lefty, and situations will certainly arise in a high-pressure* tournament when every game matters. Despite the fateful pratfall in Boston this season, Downs has been one of the best relievers in baseball for the past few years. It would be nice for him to have the chance to play in front of his "home crowd" in Toronto also.

* - there is no actual pressure. Nobody really cares about the WBC. Except us! The Reverend and I have our tickets, and I plan on periodically checking in as this made for TV event approaches.

Jays Season, Bloggers Youth Die on Same Day

My artificial date (and date of birth) has now passed, and three bad innings spread over two days will keep me from officially scoreboard watching and scenario generating. Which is okay, because there are still a plethora of great things to watch down the stretch.

One thing I will not tolerate, under any circumstances, is sloppy defence. Overbay's gaffe in the seventh was madness, a complete head-in-the-ass moment. He exhibited a lack of hustle/awareness when it mattered, which is the only time I give a shit about hustle. He's been playing so well, so I can't stay mad. The would-be double play between Rolen and Scutaro? Impossible to place blame; the ball was hit hard right at Rolen, no way could Scutaro get to the bag in time. Could Rolen have tagged third and gone to first? Perhaps, but Cora was down the line so quickly it may not have mattered. All told there were far too many errors and misplayed balls to keep me happy, which good defense will do every time.

Downs, Cito and Managing the Bullpen

There has been a lot of debate over Cito's role in the Jays second half surge. I believe his benevolent nature and hitting guru status have helped the Jays bats come alive, possibly by providing the players with the freedom to fail. As I've said before, Cito loves his "roles" and making sure each guy has one. It may just be my lack of perspective talking, but giving guys the green light early in the count isn't the same as "Scott Downs is my eighth inning guy and that's that."

Scott Downs has put together an AMAZING season, and I have no intention of burying him. The fact remains that he hasn't been sharp since coming back quickly from the ankle injury he suffered in Detroit. His walk rate soared, he was being hit harder and his innings weren't as lockdown routine as earlier in the year. One telling sign all year has been his batting average on balls put into play. It has trended low all season from the pitching baseline of .300 until exploding in September to a whopping .348.

Compare Downs to Jonathon Paplebon, a pitcher with similar overall numbers (ERA+, BAA) but quite different K rate (much higher) and WHIP (much lower). One thing you notice is Paplebon's BABIP is much higher than Downs and closing in on .300. What does that mean? Paplebon's success as a strikeout pitcher gives him more wriggle room rather than hoping balls come to rest in gloves. With Downs walking guys as often as he has all year, he's going to yield a big inning when the balls start falling in.

What is your point, you may be asking? The point is Scott Downs is an excellent pitcher that had an excellent season. He pitched hurt because the team needed him and simply regressed to the mean at the worst possible time. I'm not mad at him, I'm not really mad at Cito for continuing to go to him when something clearly wasn't right. In fact, this week taxed the bullpen in a way that likely forced Cito's hand. Would one or two extra wins this weekend really have mattered? Probably not, but it would have been a whole lot of fun finding out. It will still be fun, just not the same kind.

True Believers

The Large Smoke Birds roll into Fenway tonight nine games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card race. It's been a season of "they just need to get hot" for the Jays and their every struggling ass offense. Well it's about that time now. Toronto is currently 62-60, with 40 games remaining, 27 of them are against either the Red Sox, Rays or Yankees. You gotta think it's going to take 90-95 wins to get into the playdowns. So Toronto needs to win 30ish games of their remaining 40. That, my friends, is .750 baseball.

I won't even try and count how many good pitching performances have been wasted due to the Jays inability to have their players physically cross home plate but I'm pretty sure it's a thousand. What the fuck can you expect when a player who's missed two months of the season is one behind the team lead in both home runs and RBIs? Awful.

While Scott Downs tries to convince the Jays he doesn't require a stint on the DL, don't expect to see "Shit the bed" Frasor in a meaningful situation anytime soon. How many chances does one get to relieve Jesse Litsch after he's tossed 7 innings of shutout ball? Motherfucker.

I doubt the Jays will finish 31-9 or anything remotely close to that, however I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays sputter home with Longoria, Crawford and now Percival on the shelf. Though I didn't expect the assholes to sit at the top of the East on August 15th either.