Holiday Cheer!

You would think that someone who first wrote about their fondness for Brandon Morrow in June of 2008 would be excited at the prospect of acquiring such a stud. When that stud comes at the expense of my favorite enigma, I'm less than impressed.

Consider the past seven days. Two of my favorite players jettisoned from the team I follow with a third signing a very team-friendly extension in another town (an extension he never would've signed here, but I digress.) If the Jays do include Zach Stewart in the Morrow deal (it looks like they won't. COTF!) then I'm not quite sure what I'll do with myself. Sure, Josh Roenicke could replace League's production in the 'pen, but he certainly won't satisfy my curiosity or desire to be entertained.

Style is funny thing, especially in baseball. Roy Halladay and Brandon League couldn't possibly contrast any more, yet I held them in the same perverse regard. There's little chance of any current Blue Jay taking up the role of confirmed anomaly. I appreciate what AA's trying to do (fuck with me?) and my fandom is not in doubt, but it's tough to imagine my slavish devotion to laundry being stretched any further.

Which is to say nothing of my sliderule's favorite pitch f/x subjects. Who's left? Who's interesting? I'll look at Morrow more closely sometime soon, and I think Brett Cecil has a chance to be my next favorite. But there's no replacing the clinical Halladay and the fit-to-be-tied League.

Instead of morosely staring at my navel and feeling sorry for myself, I'll instead look back at some of my favorite Brandon League posts.

• Brandon League was much, much better than you realize in 2009. Wins are horseshit, even when League gets them.
  
• Documenting League's ownage of the Yankees.
  
• One of the many times I nearly lost my religion.
  
• I had big expectation of League in 2009 and he nearly matched them.

It's been a slice Brandon. Here's hoping you can acquire number 22 in Seattle without too much difficulty. Now on to the self pity!

In The Weeds

One thing you've certainly noticed if you read Ghostrunner on First at all this season is a certain affinity for Brandon League. I love him because he's unique and because he's awesome. Despite nearly giving up on League in August, by season's end I was convinced of his ability and feel he's ready to make The Leap. All signs point to a monster 2010 for League, for a million different reasons.

I've already drawn attention to his curiously low FIP and superbly low xFIP (lower than Zack fucking Greinke!) and his impressive uptick in strikeouts and strikeout ratio.

Another thing that could work in League's favor? His complete inability to get a call. Jeremy Greenhouse did some awesome work yesterday on Baseball Analysts looking at who "controls the zone" and which players face a larger strike zone. Who was right there at the bottom, with a whopping 35 balls that "should've" been strikes called against him? Why our Brandon League of course! It's an extension of the fine work done by our very own Jon Hale suggesting control pitchers get better calls than power guys. What if League gets even half his missed pitches called strikes? Brandon League is blowing up!

On Wells

So AA chooses to believe his eyes over the various cloak & dagger defensive metrics when it comes to Vernon Wells's defense. I get it, they're flawed. Many of the flaws come out when the reps get high enough (as Bastian points out - he's averaged -11 UZR over the past three seasons) but that's fine, they aren't the be-all or the end-all. What does AA see, other than a massive inherited contract?

My eyes see a guy that doesn't take terrific routes, for whatever reason. I see a guy chasing the ball rather than running to the spot. I made a similar comment on a DJF post in July, using this video as an example. Wells makes the catch there, but the last second hard right turn is troubling.

Does Franklin Gutierrez use evasive maneuvers at the last second? An extreme example, but no. He runs to the spot, stands around, waits, chats to Ichiro about the latest in tentacle rape porn, then makes the play. Outfielders typically begin declining after they hit 30, so we can't expect Wells to improve. I think he would make a fine right fielder, mostly because I don't have any thing else left to believe.

Y.O.Y

Why oh why Brandon League, why did you have to leave such a bitter taste in my mouth for the next 5 months? Not because you cost the Jays a game that meant less than nothing, but because you exhausted the goodwill I spent ALL SEASON building up for you. Nobody else gives a good god damn about you Brandon League, but I've convinced myself and at least one of my dozen readers that you are the second coming! You didn't have a superduper year, but you made The Step which precedes The Leap you are going to make next year as you head into free agency!

Now Brandon, they call it "Fielding Indepedent Pitching" for a reason, it's based on the components rates and averages you produce that help create outs. Low walks? Yup, you got it. Ground balls? Yup, you generate them. Strike outs? You piled up this year. Home runs? You manage to only give them up at the exact worst moment! Basically, this evaluative stat gives you the benefit of the doubt, working under the assumption that the guys behind you are boobs. What this stat can't do for you, Brandon, is account for your own errors. Nor can it TEACH YOU TO THROW THE BALL TO FIRST BASE LIKE A MAN. Sigh.

Not Saying, Just Sayin

Were I ask you whom ranked second on the Blue Jays pitching staff in strikeout to walk ratio and groundball rate, first in ground out to air out ratio and strikeouts per nine, third in WHIP for the season, who would say? The man who's second on the team in second half appearances with 25, over which he's struck out 35 and walked 6? Same guy? Fourth on the team in FIP with one of the highest (most damning) ERA-FIP marks on the staff?

You would have to assume that guy's pretty awesome. You'd be right.

Wise Words of a Sage

Good old Bob Elliott, he of a zillion years of service to baseball in Canada, has an interesting feature that (apparently) only runs in the Edmonton Sun. I know! Like shouting at a deaf man. Anyway, Elliott turns to a wizened scout &mdash with whom he's surely shared numerous chili dogs and almost certainly witnessed acts of stripper degradation that would make the average Romanian wince &mdash for a feature called "The Book." Wouldn't you know it, Brandon League's turn came 'round and caught my eye. Take it away MAJOR LEAGUE SCOUT:

He has always been a perplexing guy to me. In Texas the other night, in the doubleheader, he was 94-95 m.p.h. He walks two and gives up two runs, one earned. He should be better than that.

Well yeah, that's sort of League's deal. He should indeed be better than that, but if he threw hard and that's it I'm sure he'd be done by now. Lots of people throw hard, very few throw it like a damn whiffleball. What else, holder of my dream job?

Then, I see him against the Yankees and he is 96-97 m.p.h., and he's clean. I know guys aren't machines, but it's like: 'Oh, it's the Yankees, we'll dial it up a notch.' That's been the case with Toronto for some time. They get excited when they play Boston or the Yankees. Other teams? It's like: 'Game today?' Alex Rios was like that, too.

This is slightly unsettling. That League dominates the Yankees isn't news (Tabby went on and on over the weekend, mere days after I posted this.) I recall a very similar charge being leveled against Vernon Wells. Other than this year, that held true. Troubling indeed. Back to League

WEAKNESS: "When you have that kind of an arm you expect better than five losses and seven blown saves. Maybe that's just me, but he can lose his focus."

The blown saves are unfortunate but a little misleading. Maybe not misleading, but they sound worse than they are. He isn't a ninth inning guy (yet!), so it isn't as though he blew saves in the Brad Lidge sense. Not being in a position to pick up wins too often (i.e. pitching in relief for the damn Blue Jays) doesn't help offset the optical burden of all the losses.

STRENGTHS: "The good Lord blessed his arm. He can be overpowering. Look at his strikeouts to innings. A lot of teams asked for him this year and last. I wouldn't deal him. Some day the light is going to go on, he'll figure it out."

A lot of teams asked for him? That's because a lot of teams are smart. Just like JP, as it turns out. The strikeouts to innings comment is bang on. League currently sports a career-high K/9 of 9.28 thanks to his whiff rate jumping through the roof into some pretty heady company.

Ol'Bob goes on to give Brandon League a not-subjective-or-meaningless-in-the-least 2 out of 5 rating this season. That sounds about right? Brandon League is almost "there" but hasn't quite reached the point where he's completely trustworthy or praiseworthy. The Jays have invested a great deal to this point; here's hoping they don't give up now.

Image obviously stolen from Eye On Springfield. P.S. I love Bob Elliott.

Niche Marketing

Everyone is good at something. Brandon League is good at confounding Blue Jays fans. For fun, let's check out Brandon League's splits by team. Who is he best again? Who has his number in 2009?

Split	G	PA	H	HR	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GDP	HBP	BAbip
California Angels	2	11	4	0		.364	.364	.364	.727	1	0	.400
Atlanta Braves	1	5	2	0		.400	.400	.600	1.000	0	0	.500
Baltimore Orioles	3	21	7	0	5.00	.350	.381	.450	.831	1	0	.467
Boston Red Sox	6	26	4	1	10.00	.167	.231	.292	.522	0	1	.231
Chicago White Sox	2	7	0	0	0.00	.000	.429	.000	.429	2	0	.000
Cincinnati Reds	2	10	2	0	1.00	.286	.444	.429	.873	0	1	.333
Cleveland Indians	4	25	9	1	1.00	.450	.542	.700	1.242	2	2	.471
Detroit Tigers	2	8	3	0		.375	.375	.375	.750	0	0	.429
Florida Marlins	2	15	7	2	3.00	.538	.600	1.154	1.754	0	1	.625
Kansas City Royals	2	9	0	0		.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	.000
Minnesota Twins	1	3	0	0		.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	.000
New York Yankees	8	35	6	0	6.00	.188	.235	.250	.485	1	0	.300
Oakland Athletics	2	13	3	0	0.00	.273	.385	.455	.839	0	0	.273
Philadelphia Phillies	4	16	4	1		.250	.250	.563	.813	0	0	.333
Seattle Mariners	1	3	0	0		.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	.000
Tampa Bay Rays	8	43	11	3	2.40	.297	.395	.595	.990	1	1	.364
Texas Rangers	4	15	2	0	2.50	.154	.267	.154	.421	1	0	.250
Washington Nationals	2	5	0	0		.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	.000
Inter-League	11	51	15	3	6.50	.326	.380	.652	1.032	0	2	.400

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/4/2009.

Wow. Somehow, Brandon League completely owns the Yankees. He has his entire career. The number one offense in baseball in terms of runs, home runs, wOBA, walks, pretty much any number you could use to evaluate an offense. Yet Brandon League holds them to .464 OPS. Also note his K/BB ratio of TEN TO ONE in 7 appearances versus the Red Sox. Try to ignore the savage beatings he took at the hands of the National League. How in God's name does this happen??

Last night he sandwiched a lonely double & sac bunt with a two fly outs and two strike outs (with the patented Brandon League wild pitch thrown in for flavor). He struck out Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira, a feat unto itself. It makes such a small amount of sense that a team traditionally chock full of power hitting lefties gets run over by League consistently while a more slap-dash team like the Rays completely owns him. Let's revive the speed * vertical break graph from a few weeks ago to see what he had last night.


So the blue dots are a combination of three separate outings; some good, some bad. Green was last night's outing against the Yankees, red is the legendary 3 inning ball gag and whips outing in the Bronx. What does this tell me? His stuff during the extra innings marathon was nuts. Insane. Last night he kept the Yankees at bay with pretty much is standard arsenal. None of this explains why League owns the Yanks or why he's so inconsistent though. What about spin?



That is a little messy. Generally, speed versus spin direction angle charts show much more distinct patterns (like this), grouping pitches nicely to ease identification. With Brandon League we get a typical clusterfuck that leaves me scratching my head. Apparently Brandon League can't do a couple things:

1. Maintain a consistent release point/arm angle to support a repeatable breaking ball or
2. He throws a second breaking pitch so badly it is nearly indistinguishable from his splitter.

I could be wrong, but I think it's the former. League's split fingered pitch is essentially to keeping hitters off his dangerous fastball, especially on days when it isn't doing what it's supposed to.

The real question is: will I ever "crack the case" on Brandon League? Will I one day discover the key to his future success, to dozens of saves and healthy paychecks? Probably not. But if you've been reading this site for long enough you know I'm having a great time trying to figure it out.

Thanks to Brooks for the pitch data, B-R for the splits, and Daylife for the photo

You Knew This Was Coming

Ahhhhhhhh Zaun. It had to be Zaun? This might be the problem with one trick ponies like Brandon League. A wily vet who happened to catch him over four seasons isn't going to be fooled. If you bisect the plate with a fastball he knows is coming, you're in trouble.



The blue dots are League fastballs, the red his splitter. The Xs are Zobrist's single and Pena's double. Fuck breakfast.

So what happened? How could he be so bad so soon after being so good? Location and getting ahead is one. Recall his Yankee outing, how everything was down in the zone? Sunday, not so much. Throwing strikes? That always helps. Against the Yankees, League started batters off like this:

1. Fastball called strike.
   
2. Fastball grounded to center for hit.
   
3. Fastball flown to centerfield.
   
4. Splitter high and wide, ball. ( runner is subsequently picked off by Raul Chavez's "works once in a liftime" snap throw)
   
5. Splitter flown to right field.
   
6. Fastball called strike.
   
7. Fastball called strike.
   
8. Splitter low and inside, ball.
   
9. Fastball grounded to second for out.
   
10. Fastball inside, ball.

So he threw the fastball for strikes or for converted outs while throwing the splitter outside the zone. Seemed to work. Against the Rays League went fastball fouled off, splitter swung and missed, fastball off the plate away, intentional walk (playing with fire!), splitter low and away, fastball low, and finally a fuck you fastball to BJ Upton's back. In the only two at bats that really hurt him (Pena and Zaun) he got behind 2-1 and couldn't recover. He did have Zaun 3-2, but served him up an old man gopher ball. So is that it? Perhaps not.


This image shows the speed of League's pitches graphed against their vertical movement. The blue dots are Sunday's Rays outing, red is the dominant outing against the Yankees. First thing you'll notice: the gas. League fired with reckless abandon against the Yanks, averaging 96.4 mph on his fastball. During Sunday's catastrofuck League checked in around 94.4 mph. According to Fangraphs, 95.3 is his average fastball this season, a number I'll trust as I believe Fangraphs uses the same data I steal. Also, League's fastball averaged 95.25 on Saturday night in Tampa and 95.45 in New York in July, so it isn't necessarily a difference between two parks/guns. So for Brandon League; speed is something but not everything.

One problem that League may experience from time to time is the flattening of his fastball. Again from Fangraphs, we see League's average amount of "rise" this season is 3.4 inches. Sunday he checked in at a much flatter and bangable 4.5 inches. Against the Yankees? Closer to 1.75 inches of "rise" or much more sink. More sink on his fastball is a good thing, as it already sinks more than the law allows. Less sink is just a high speed batting practice delivery, especially when you're his old catcher and you're looking fastball in.

I can't even pretend to explain why his splitter seems straighter, flatter, yet faster and more effective in that now quasi-famous outing against the Yankees, it was just one of those days when everything works. My hopes were sky high for Brandon League to emerge as a revelation during this dreary second half, and despite my excuse-making he seems to ALWAYS end up giving up the biggest of big hits. Relief pitchers who dominate meaningless appearances but struggle when it counts have a very limited shelf-life, and I wonder how long the love affair with Potential will last. He's obviously a gifted athlete and a pitcher with unique skills, but in that situation you simply can't make a poor pitch, one Gregg Zaun (!) can bang out of the park, and expect to keep your job forever.

I feel dirty insinuating such awful things about Brandon League, but I don't know how many more chances the team will give him. If Arnsberg's voodoo doesn't work on him and the Zen of Citocity doesn't work on him, what's left to try?

Who's the Boom King?

3 innings, 3 strike outs, 3 ground balls, 1 hit and a .343 WPA? You knew this was coming, here we go.


You may have known this post was coming but you sure as shit didn't know Brandon League was going to be off his off for three consecutive innings. Even I predicted doom when he came out for the second (and of course third) inning. How the hell did Brandon League do it? He threw strikes for one. He kept the ball down and he got whiffs (the Xs in the graph). Sounds like a recipe for success.

There's some debate (in the Drunk Jays Fan comment section) regarding League's movement. Some claim he's better when he works more regularly. The numbers support it, in the second half this year anyway. His bad outing against Baltimore was his first in month (even that appearance wasn't that bad.) From Baseball Reference, here are League's OPS by days of rest:

• No Rest (back to back) - .765
• One Day of Rest - .877
• Two Days of Rest - .323
• Three Days of Rest - 891
• Four Days of Rest - .423
• Five/Six Days of Rest - .900/.762

Hmmm. His career numbers support here, with 2 and 4 days of rest being his best (though not as microscopic as 09). Okay, but why? Sadly that will have to wait for another day. I'm building a League EXXtreme F/X database but it's still small, I'm still dumb yet busy. For now let's just say League was so good today uhhh, because he's awesome.

A Moment in Time

I know it took place about 1000 years ago in blogging/internet time, but I witnessed something special on Friday night during the Jays/Red Sox game (which I was liveblogging.) Love and love collided when Brandon League came in to pitch the 7th inning with the outcome of the game hardly in doubt. It didn't matter though, as the first batter he faced was none other than Rocco Baldelli. ZOMG!

I was very conflicted; what should I hope to happen? The game was pretty much over given the Sox bullpen dominance and Rocco was having a tough time at the plate. A meaningless insurance home run wouldn't hurt anybody, right? I think the best scenario would be the the one laid out by Ian the Blue Jay Hunter, who said (allow me to embellish) that Rocco should go down and get a tough League fastball, ripping it down the third base line for Scott Rolen to make an incredible diving play! This website would have spontaneously combusted and ceased to be. It didn't really play out that way, because Brandon League was AMAZING on Friday night. To the graph paper!


Your eyes do not deceive you. Brandon League threw only 1 fastball to Rocco, right down the middle. The other four pitches were his off speed pitch, whatever you believe it to be. Sinker? Slider? Curve? Change? The pitch f/x algorithm sure can't figure it out. Neither could Rocco, who swung at two nice whatevertheyares just below the strike zone after League threw one that even the ump couldn't make sense of so he called it a ball. How about we look at League's velocity versus horizontal movement for the whole inning, which included a two pitch ground out and a strike out of JD Drew?


I'm not very smart, so I don't know what to label the breaking pitch. Is it a changeup? Sort of, it moves laterally at a speed similar to Halladay's change, though the vertical movement is all different. Sometimes Pitch f/x thinks it's a cutter, sure whatever, though I don't think Brandon League throws with his left hand half the time. Is is the very same pitch he heaves normally, just at 80% effort? Brandon League is a pretty eXXXtreme dude, I don't think he does anything at 80% effort. TO THE MAX!

It could be anything, but whatever it was against the Red Sox on Friday, it worked. It was highly effective because it was thrown around the strikezone! Will wonders ever cease?

You may suggest this is an asinine waste of time, getting excited over an 11 pitch sample. You'd be correct, but I still wouldn't care. Rocco went down against a better man on this day, one I hope we'll see again soon.

Have it Both Ways

via IO9 and Filmdrunk

If you were lucky enough to tune into maker of sense and teller of truths Jeff Blair hosting Prime Time Sports Tuesday afternoon, you'd have heard yours truly chiming in as the first caller of the show. I'm still a low-level blogging scumbag not a big swinging dick like Parkes and Stoeten so I have to call in and sit on hold like a chump when I wish to take to the airwaves. My question (point?) was this: could we not perceive dumping BJ Ryan as an attempt to make the club better rather than the fire sale Blair questioned JP about? Were he really the do-nothing lay about some might suggest; wouldn't he be content to keep wheeling Ryan's decreped bones or letting him rot in the bullpen to risk paying him to do nothing? Sunk cost friends, money that isn't coming back. His cost is now set, at least he won't cost you dollars on the pitching rubber.

While I appreciate Mathias of Mop Up Duty's efforts to make BJ Ryan appear competent over the month of June (1.04 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) it just isn't true. Ryan's June FIP - 5.92! on a BABIP of .189. K/BB Rate - 0.50 (3 K/9 to 6 BB/9) Batters swinging at less than 40% of his pitches, though they contacted over 90%. Just bad all around.

Is it a shame and a sin to wash their hands of all that money? Of course. At least he's no longer a detriment to the ball club. Yet people are mad at the GM again. So last year he held on to underperforming players and we got mad. This year he cuts his losses with an underperforming player and we get mad again? I don't get it. A player without trade value as well as on-field value is worthless; no matter how much it costs.

Call the Meeting of Brandon League Apologists to Order!

Poor Brandon League. Give up game-winning tater tots certainly isn't a good thing, but let's be real for a second. He pitched well. Really well. One mistake that wasn't even a mistake. Watch the video here and note that pitch didn't really miss. If anything it was a little further inside than Barajas wanted it. Perhaps another angle:


Hardly a meatball, that's a 96 mph fastball down and in. Burrell ran into it, the game ended. It didn't move as much as many of his fastballs (back into the right hander) so I guess that means it didn't move enough. Deep sigh.

Much love and appreciation to Brooks Baseball pitch fx database! Support their fight against ALS here

Damning with Faint Praise

I talk a lot about players I like (or love) yet I would be hard pressed to define what it is I like about them. Sometimes a player's uniqueness catches my eye, sometimes their greatness. Sometimes it's about personality, other times it is just their goofy name. Brandon League doesn't really fit it into any of these categories. Watching him last night, I sort of got it: he's completely unpredictable.

Unpredictability isn't something I inherently enjoy; Scott Rolen and Roy Halladay are certainly predictable. Predictably awesome and predictably resolute in their pursuit of next-level achievement, traits that certainly have their place. Brandon League isn't unpredictable in a boring way either. Shawn Camp or even The Sausage King give you that feeling in your stomach, that "Jesus Christ just don't fuck it up" unpredictability born out of their bland crappiness and/or serviceability. Brandon League doesn't have that.

I've probably linked to Professor Hale's post on Brandon League's wacky sinker a half-dozen times, mostly because it continually blows my mind. I'll let the man himself explain:

Brandon League has a pitch that nobody else in the majors throws, that I would venture to say nobody has ever thrown- a 97 mph sinker. It boggles the mind...but hear this: League is not just a promising youngish power arm. He’s a total freak who could be a one-of-a kind pitcher.

Amazing. That is why I like Brandon League. Every time he takes the hill, I know I'm seeing something unique. Something weird and wonderful. That originality combines with, you know, the actual baseball game he's competing in to tease me in incredible ways.

Every Blue Jays fan asks the same question when the bullpen doors open:

Which Brandon League will show up tonight?
Will he be unhittable? Will he have any clue where the ball is going? I alternate between expecting him to be untouchable and just hoping he will, always knowing that a misplaced slider or inevitable bout of wildness is waiting to derail the outing. What about a poorly timed hit by pitch! League's always good for one of them a month. It's all great. The possibility that Brandon League will come out, blow away three consecutive hitters in a completely unfair way will have me cutting him slack long after Cito grows tired of dangling League on a leverage yo-yo.

I'd like to say "baseball needs more guys like Brandon League" here, but it just won't happen. Oppressive coaching, the quest for return on investment, and normal human musculature prevent too many guys like League from making their way down the pipeline. Having a wildcard in the mix, someone I'll remember long after he's moved on has value beyond a win or loss in late June.

The Ongoing Leverage Aversion of Brandon League

On an 0-2 pitch, mind you. Right down Broadway, if you're new to Pitch f/x.

Brandon League wants you to want him, he really does.

Pitch f/x data courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

Fingerpointing Blamegame

I come here not to bury Brandon League, but to praise him. Do you find yourself wondering why Brandon League was still on the mound to start the ninth? You shouldn't, he's awesome and had been that way for the past 30 days (how does an 2.00 ERA and a 2.60 FIP grab ya?) Obviously League's ninth wasn't fun to watch, and while he took the loss and bore the brunt of the WPA load, it was hardly his fault.

Leadoff batter Howie Kendrick laid down a perfect bunt for a base hit. Hardly League's fault, though the pitch was right down the middle. My thoughts on the bunt: IF GODDAMN JOSE BAUTISTA DOESN'T BUTCHER AN EASY BOUNCER AT THE END OF THE EIGHTH, KENDRICK DOESN'T LEAD OFF. What does this prove? Nothing. It's convenient and suits my anti-Jose, pro-League agenda. But still, leading off with slumping greasy catcher Mike Napoli? Ifs, buts, candy, so forth. PS Jose is hitting .212 over the last month, with 4 extra base hits and 21 strikeouts. PPS. Fuck him.

Next up was Chone Figgans, a bigger thorn in Blue Jay sides than the idiom "thorn in my side" is a thorn in my side. Anyway, Figgans golfed a 94 mile an hour fastball into right field. The pitch was down and in, where lefties love it, but it was out of the strike zone to an extent that I don't expect most hitters to do much with it. Of course the double play follows with Kendricks' late break for home. League eventually strikes out zombie Vlady but the damage is done.

The team scored a bunch of runs but not when they really needed one. Jose Bautista naturally ended the game with a strike out. The Mockingbird covers Rios's struggles in all their grandeur, no mention of Aaron Hill's very quite 0-20 jag. Good thing the Jays only have to face Zack Grienke tonight. Luckily for me, I'll be live blogging it over at the Score. Drop by and we'll heal together.

Real Quick Otherness

• Justin Morneau - Barely Literate.
  
• Paul Konerko listens to rural metal and shouts out Rocco.
  
• Jake Peavy - still a bitch.

Brandwagon Exits Station, Gains Momentum

When you need a good quote, might as well seek out the smartest guy you know. I know very few people so I'll take this one myself:

The Jays taking 2 of 3 from the Red Sox would be the most BLUE JAY thing to do at this point. I expect nothing less.

The Blue Jays decided to commit Blue Jayish crimes against the psyche of Toronto by taking two straight from the BoSox just when all looked lost. They won't let you leave so soon bandwagoneers.

Speaking of bandwagons, Cito seemed to have thrown a stick between the spokes and shot the horse dragging the Brandon League bandwagon the last few weeks. Probably because of League's struggles with a small S in high leverage situations, Cito refused to insert him into a game with the outcome in doubt. League pitched better until, lo and behold, he's setting up Scott Downs on consecutive days.

League's response: pure awesomeness. Friday night he was untouchable, even as he bounced a couple pitches in the left hand batters box. Another three up, three down inning on Saturday and the cries of "Brandon League is BACK!" can be heard all across teh internetz.

According to Brooks Baseball and their Pitch F/X demons, League was at his BB slinging best. Throwing his "offspeed" pitch for strikes and his frisbee-fastball for Lulz. He's even striking guys out, something I long ago dismissed as a Brandon League skill. Consider me impressed and excited.

As for tomorrow: who cares? Riding a two game winning streak, Rocco's X rays came back negative (boners crossed for ya Rocco!), quality performances from the middle of the order in the bank, it's all fun money at this point. P!

Stripmining the Positivity Vein

Of the myriad positive and amazing things that happened last night, I will naturally key on the least important. Scott Rolen's power, Vernon Wells hitting a home run in a win, and Scott Richmond's command are crucial, but the biggest takeaway for me was the return of Brandon League! League faced three guys, getting two ground outs and an ever-important strikeout. Better yet he threw 70% of his pitches for strikes -- Boners! Sure, it was literally a leverage-free situation (not literally the way people literally say literally all the time, I mean literally. 0.00 pLI); but he needed to get some swagger back if he's to keep his job.

Swagger is all well and good, but there was something more to Brandon League's solidly meaningless outing: release point. I mentioned a few days ago he didn't look comfortable and posited a possible mechanical problem. Turns out I'm a genius. With some help from the good people at Brooks Baseball, I checked out his recent release points. Here we go (click to englarge):



The blue dots are from good Brandon, commanding pitches and inducing groundballs. The lighter blue is yesterday's mop up outing, the other from an early season appearance that hardly lit the world on fire but wasn't awful. The red squares are two outings in Cleveland that went piss-poorly. Good Brandon throws under control and a bit more over the top. Bad Brandon slings and elevates and looks like he misses his mommy.

Hopefully Brandon League remembers that he's awesome and potentially unhittable. Like Roy Halladay and Francisco Liriano can be on any given night. Awesome matchup tonight in which the compubot loves the Jays. Exciting times. Exciting like the Shrimp! My liveblog turned into a shrimpfest last night, I couldn't have been happier. Thanks to everyone that came by and commented.

You and I, Let's Make a Pact

All of us reading this today and moving forward in perpetuity will swear an oath together:

I, ______________ (your name here) do solemnly swear to never, ever refer to a pitcher's won/loss record EVER again. So long as we all shall live, unless the crusty old powers that be come to their senses and change this antiquated rule, will never make mention of a pitcher's ability or inability to nail down a decision.

I'm better than that, and despite knowing I should exhaust my ire somewhere more meaningful, I will punch the next Cy Young voter I see in the throat for parroting win totals. Thank you.

Brandon League entered last night's ball game with two on and two out with his team up by one. God bless him, but he threw nine pitches, TWO FOR STRIKES, hit a guy to force in the tying run while looking more like he was awaiting a paternity test than trying to win a baseball game. He was credited his first blown save of the year and of course, his first win. Brandon League is now 1-0 on the season by virtue of the Jays offense. Fuck wins.

Scott Richmond - Coat Yourself in Maple Syrup While You Can

Look, Scott Richmond isn't very good. I tweeted so much three batters into the game, slightly premature on my part. His line wasn't awful in the end; but something I saw scared the shit out of me. He struck out 4 and walked 2. Not bad, you would assume. The scary part was the ground balls, or lack thereof. He faced 19 guys, subtract the Ks and walks and 13 guys put the ball in play. Take the six fly balls and add the five line drives or flies that went for hits and measure them against only 2 ground balls. Ouch. He can't survive like that for long, especially getting smacked around by left handed hitters as he does.

Opposite Field Power

That is one opposite field shot each for Lind and Snider this year. They're so awesome. Like Scott Rolen and Aaron Hill, who are on a strict "ropes only" diet. FIRST PLACE!!! PLAYOFFS!!!

Hoof in Mouth Outbreak Imminent

The one thing even the most ardent J.P. bashers have in common with those of us that spend our days cradling his glorious nutsack is bullpen appreciation. One high-priced closer, one well-paid LOOGY-come-set up guy, one freak, and a cast of shitballers and never-wases combine to form a tight, effective, league-leading unit. With all the attention given to the movement of mop-up righties and the lack of rapid movement in the closer's fastball this week, is it time to worry about the stable back-end?

In a word, yes. I don't want to say the entire Jays bullpen is due to regress, but all signs point to a correction looming on the horizon. Two big factors have worked in the bullpen's favor in recent years: pitching very few innings and the excellent defense behind them. The defense isn't going anywhere, thankfully. A full season of Aaron Hill can only improve the Jays batted ball-to-out conversions, even if Scutaro returns to his career averages at short. One thing the bullpen will be asked to do this year is work more. Work long and hard. I'm not overly concerned with the rotation per se, but two of the newcomers share a predilection towards walks and high pitch counts. With extended exposure, some of inconsistencies are bound to come out in the wash.

Let's look a little closer, using the 2008 Dodgers bullpen for comparison's sake. Of course, the Dodgers made the playoffs but won fewer games than the Blue Jays. Their bullpen ERA was third in baseball behind our Blue Jays and the World fucking Champion Phillies.

	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	WHIP	Strand Rate	BABIP	FIP	ERA	ERA-FIP
2008 Jays	7.54	3.75	2.01	1.25	79.8%	.275	3.85	2.94	-0.91
2008 Dodgers	8.62	3.22	2.68	1.26	74.5%	.307	3.47	3.34	-0.13
2007 Jays	7.24	3.36	2.15	1.26	73.1%	.290	3.77	3.46	-0.31

What jumps out at you? The 2008 bullpen either made great use of the defense or got lucky as hell. The BABIP is under the baseline of .300, the strand rate is higher than average (75%) and the K/BB rate is lower than the year before. The biggest difference is ERA-FIP, showing how many runs the team allowed versus how many they "should" have allowed. A difference of more than half a run per game seems pretty severe. As a unit the Dodgers register more strikeouts yet fewer walks, stranded about the league average while dealing with a slightly above-average BABIP. In other words, with a little luck, they could be much better this year. The Jays, not so much.

If that didn't make you want to kill yourself quite enough, it gets worse. What about the individual pitchers? How did they each shake down in the past, and how do they look for 2009?

JP Demands More Lefties!	2007 E-F	2008 ERA	2008 FIP	2008 E-F	2008 BABIP	2008 Strand Rate	2009 Mean FIP (projected)
Scott Downs	-1.07	1.78	3.39	-1.60	.264	86.6%	3.67
Brandon League	-1.01*	2.18	4.16	-1.98	.271	85.7%	3.99
B.J. Ryan	-0.77*	2.95	3.68	-0.74	.285	78.7%	3.42
Jesse Carlson	N/A	2.25	3.80	-1.55	.235	86.6%	4.04
Shawn Camp	2.00^	4.12	3.21	0.91	.322	69.7%	3.97
Jason Frasor	1.41	4.18	4.55	-0.36	.259	72.6%	3.97
Brian Tallet	0.11	2.88	3.61	-0.74	.300	80.7%	4.10

Wow, that's a lot of nerdy shit. First things first, the * indicates a 2006 number due to insufficient innings in 2007. Shawn Camp's ^ comes from his 2007 season in Tampa Bay, where he was disgracefully bad. Before I go any further, I'll admit strand rates for relievers can be deceptive as it can be attributed to a repeatable skill.

That said, does Scott Downs strike you as a ticking timebomb? That strand rate is very high and his E-F went from fortunate to elephant-in-the-roomish. Did I mention he's 33 years old, and got knocked around last year as he tired and his curveball flattened? How about Ryan, who wasn't nearly as bad as he seemed in 2008, but still benefited from the defense behind him. The velocity concern is troubling though there is light at the end of that tunnel, I hope. P.S. He's 34.

Jesse Carlson and Brandon League are virtually the same guy: one pitch wonders for medium leverage situations. Though they both present as regression candidates, I'll give League the benefit of the doubt. His crazy velocity, his overwhelming ground ball numbers (a few more than normal are BOUND to sneak through), and his prototype pitcher's body. I really hope the league (and physics. .235 BABIP? See you in hell, seeing-eye grounder) doesn't catch up to Carlson's slider as he's a good story and a fun guy to watch.

Somehow Jason Frasor and Shawn Camp could make Cito look like a genius. Shawn Camp due to the clear signs he was better than it seemed last year. Jason Frasor's presence keeps Jeremy Accardo from spreading disease all across Southern Ontario, which makes Cito a hero for sending him off to douchebag central. I don't want to live in a world where Shawn Camp is being counted on in high leverage situations, numbers be damned.

Brian Tallet! I almost forgot Brian Tallet. Because he's utterly inconsequential! My time clearly has little or no value, just like the value of a 4th left handed pitcher in a major league bullpen. Congrats Brian Tallet, you are cold pasta salad.

So I guess we're fucked? Hardly. This is still a good group of complimentary relievers, being judiciously deployed by a bullpen master run into the ground by a glorified hitting coach. I kid, Cito, I kid. But we should all be concerned. Age, luck, and heavy work schedules could all conspire to catch up to the Jays this year. It won't be pretty. PLAYOFFS!!??!

1000 blessings and thanks to Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and the Brooks Baseball Pitch F/x Caravan of Chuckles.

Brandon League - Stuff and Fluff

Brandon League's glorious name popped into my world twice yesterday, a rare occurrence for my favorite freak. He was featured in a mini bio in the print version of the Star; stating that his favorite place to eat in Toronto is Fune and his favorite sports team is the University of Hawaii Football Fightin' Rainbows. League then went deep into the sportswriter's cliche handbag and professed his love of In N Out Burger! Oh Brandon, you make me so happy. When asked who is the best player in the league at your position, he came correct:

Roy fucking Hallday, who else? I'm may be a little slow, but come on, I get to watch him from 300 feet away, it's retarded. It's like we're not even playing the same sport. He's tossing BBs in the dark, I'm hoping to get maybe five guys out while throwing the same screwball-come-sinker-come-reverse frisbee over and over. Honestly, the only person I admire more than Roy Halladay is Mathew McConaughey.

More accurately, he simply said Roy Halladay. Oh and he has a dog named Dirty Sanchez. Classy.

Later I came across League's name again on Fangraphs, where Dave Cameron showed the correlation between velocity and strikeouts. The graph shows, somewhat unsurprisingly, that guys that throw harder tend to rack up more Ks. Lo and behold, there is League's name, waay off the regression line as the Kahuna gods intended.

Fangraphs is the rare site that features knowledgeable commenters that add to the level of discourse, which is already well beyond my feeble brain. Some of the comments pointed to the use of K/9 rather than K/BF, suggesting that a pitcher with a good defense behind him (check) that induces a lot of groundballs (check again) is punished slightly, for the purposes of this exercise. There is also something to be said for selection bias in big league baseball, as a "live arm" will get dozens of chances while a soft tossing control type isn't thought to have the same "upside". It's pretty clear from their graph that more velocity = more missed bats, more often than not. Exactly the kind of nerdy numerical bullshit that sucks me in every time.

Good old Brandon League's name features prominently on the graph as a guy that throws really hard but doesn't have overwhelming strikeout numbers. To suggest League's K/9 numbers punish him as a groundball machine is letting League off a little easy. His limited repertoire allows hitters to sit on his one good pitch; luckily for League it's so good they can't do too much with it. His K/9 in 2008 was 6.27, or 23.2% of his outs were recorded by strikeout. His K/BF was only 16.3%, likely due to his slightly atrocious walk numbers. His contact rate is among the team's highest, though it is very similar to fellow groundball maven Halladay's. Halladay notches more strikeouts (and a million fewer walks) by having hitters swing at pitches out of the zone, something League doesn't do nearly as well.

Either way, Brandon League is one good secondary pitch away from being nearly unhittable. But who isn't.

Why Can't You be More Like Diablo Canyon 2?

It's been a while since I last thought of my favorite closer-in-waiting cum doghouse inhabitant cum alien pitching phenom: Brandon League. Man oh man do I love Brandon League. But even with me, he is out of excuses. No surfing injuries, no triple A yo-yo action. This is the year that Brandon League realizes his destiny: being as good as Joba Chamberlain.

A lot to ask? Yes, but the similarities are there. Home runs/9, WHIP, average against, and strand rate were all very similar in 2008. They both bring pure gas, but in very different ways. Joba's fastball is straight, hard, and as pure as his love of fudge. Brandon League's fastball is more along the lines of a flying saucer, darting about the night's sky quickly and erratically. Brandon League's slider is a glorified cutter/drunk divorcee at a Firkin bar; waiting to be banged over and over again. Joba's slider is basically unhittable. Joba also features a big nasty curveball, a pitch League removed from his arsenal years ago.

In terms of stuff, Brandon League is unique in that he's been able to get this far on the strength of one pitch. Joba is a very traditional pitcher with supernatural stuff, he racks up huge strikeout numbers by deploying his arsenal of nastiness whenever the situation demands. Brandon League would accrue more strikeouts were he able to get ahead of more hitters, but his wildness keeps him relying on his hilarious GB/FB rate.

It is my hope that League spent this off season working on his secondary stuff. Any other pitch will do! Something he can throw for strikes with enough frequency to keep left handed hitters from getting too comfortable. Difficult as I imagine hitting a 97 mile per hour sinker is, any big league hitter will figure it out eventually if that's the only pitch he has to worry about. A second pitch (change up?) that keeps batters honest and doesn't need to be labeled as a "get me over" anything can only bring down League's slightly home run per fly ball rate.

Other Stuff

• Walkoff Walk decided to get into the projection game. Our BONILLA system (Based On Nothing Interesting, Let's Look at Age) has been rolling out all week. My first entry, the 28 year olds, went up yesterday. Please check it out and LOL accordingly.
  
• Canada is having hard time filling out its WBC rotation. Too many injuries? Let those that preach the gospel of virgin arms carry this cross with them forever.
  
• Geoff Baker ranks Blogger's Valhala (the press box) of each American League park. Judging by the food selections, it's no wonder they're such a cranky bunch. The Rogers Centre press box ranking suffers due to Bob Elliott's spastic colon.
  
• JP blames Rogers. Who doesn't at this point?
  
• I don't blame Rogers for anything, so long as they abide by our uneasy agreement. I caved to my end of the deal, finally picking up an iphone the other day. Time to sign Halladay to that extension. Tout de suite!

Breathless Update during a Workless Weekend

Holy Shit! The Jays staged a wild comeback against the Yankees, with Jose Bautista serving as the catalyst! Will wonders never cease?

• Travis Snider hasn't looked too bad in his two big league games. A few adventures in left on Friday night, I will freely chalk them up to a lack of familiarity with the ballpark. He did a good job cutting off Abreu's drive to the gap, but didn't show the strongest arm. His throw on the jumping catch near the wall was stronger, but too late. At the plate, he hasn't been trying to pull everything, taking pitches away from him to the center and left (his opposite) fields. The Mockingbird breaks down his first game here.
• Brandon League is hilariously awesome. Striking out Alex Rodriquez, Jason Giambi and Xavier Nady en route to picking up his first win of the year last night.
• As the Reverend noted below: Rocco is a hero, and somebody just stuck their dick inside the storybook. From the looks of it, last night's Rays/O's game was the game of the year. Real Rocco and Greek Rocco exchanging heroics, the good guy coming out on top. Sweet.
• 2 for 1 Shrimp Night at Walkoff Walk! Too much fun.

The Jays look to sending out the righties-only brigade today, with Snider and Overbay both on the bench. Andy Pettitte's move is so good, I fear Snider might have been picked off of home.