Your New Favorite Player

Linking to an article in which Brandon Morrow refers to preferring "nerd stats" is pretty much a Pavlovian response at this point. The paper reports it, I liberally blockquote from it and we all go about our business.

The piece in question is more of a notes article with, what, 200 words on Morrow? It alludes to Morrow's appreciation of advanced stats (though it ignores FIP, which LOVES him) without mentioning his Cal education, making Morrow smarter than 90% of SABR dudes anyway.

This is supposed to be the part where I gush over Morrow for embracing stats, even if he does seem to appreciate them on a more Greinkian level i.e. they make him look good.

The most telling and enjoyable part of this tiny Bellingham Herald piece is actually a quote from Morrow on Vernon Wells, after Morrow threw a terrible pitch which Vernon used to bookend his career by taking it deep to left-center field.

“He stepped out, tipped his cap, and when he got back in I threw him the single worst slider of my career,” Morrow said.

Wells homered.

“The only good thing was the crowd cheered him all the way around the bases,” Morrow said.

I dunno, that's just a decent and real thing to say. I appreciate his candor and honesty. Sue me.

P.S. He struck out 50% of the batters put before him against the Mariners on Wednesday night. That helps too.

Update! Oh hey look! Another reason to appreciate Brandon Morrow! These are really starting to pile up.

Reuters Image courtesy of Daylife

Does Brandon Morrow hit the wall or does the wall hit Brandon Morrow?

Brandon Morrow exceeds at throwing baseballs. He is really good at it. I know this despite results that, on the long view, are merely mixed. He strikes out lots of people while walking only a few, compared to his copious strikeouts.

On days like Saturday, when Brandon Morrow is cruising along and everything seems to be going swimmingly, it seems the he cannot be touched. Then one bad inning comes along and submarines the entire process.

Is Brandon Morrow the victim of consistently bad luck? Is he proof defense independent stats are missing a key element to successful performance? Does his diabeetus limit his potential as a starter? I don't think I can answer any of these definitively, but we can surely look.

Brandon Morrow tires easily

Do I believe this to be the case? I don't believe that I do. It is a possibility, especially when we consider Morrow's fluctuating blood sugar. Some people, like Dustin Parkes, believe Morrow gets hurt during Spring Training because he isn't conditioned properly. This may well be the case but I don't know that I'm ready to condemn Morrow's off-season workout routine. But it is worth investigating.

Firstly, let's look at Morrow's numbers by inning. Using Baseball Reference's numbers it is more about results than process but that is what we're after - the source of middling results.

Split	TBF	R	H	HR	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
1st inning	78	5	10	1	10	23	2.30	.152	.269	.212	.481	.209
2nd inning	82	6	15	1	8	35	4.38	.205	.280	.301	.582	.368
3rd inning	84	11	19	1	3	17	5.67	.257	.280	.351	.632	.300
4th inning	86	12	18	3	8	21	2.63	.237	.326	.434	.760	.288
5th inning	79	16	23	1	6	15	2.50	.319	.367	.472	.839	.386
6th inning	60	9	13	2	6	19	3.17	.245	.317	.415	.732	.333
7th inning	39	1	9	0	2	9	4.50	.250	.308	.306	.613	.333
8th inning	8	2	1	0	1	0	0.00	.167	.375	.167	.542	.167

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/9/2011.

Hmmm, highest BABIP over the inning with the most runs/worst numbers? Not too surprising but hardly conclusive.

Instead of innings, let's look at pitch counts. Baseball Reference uses 25 pitch buckets so guess what? So do I.

Split	TBF	R	H	HR	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
Pitch 1-25	111	9	21	2	13	34	2.62	.219	.315	.333	.649	.311
Pitch 26-50	124	7	22	1	6	39	6.50	.196	.230	.259	.488	.276
Pitch 51-75	130	20	27	3	12	25	2.08	.237	.323	.368	.691	.276
Pitch 76-100	125	22	29	2	11	37	3.36	.264	.336	.418	.754	.370
Pitch 101+	26	4	9	1	2	4	2.00	.375	.423	.583	1.006	.421

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/8/2011.

This...this is something. Something more, anyway. Morrow's numbers in the 75-100 pitch group are actually better as far as strikeouts and walks go but it seems that more balls turn in hits. His BABIP is WAY out of whack with the rest of his numbers.

Beyond the numbers here, I looked at Morrow's pitch f/x info and created the same 25 pitch buckets to look at some more in-depth numbers.

Pitch Bucket	Whiff Rate	Average Fastball velocity
1-25	11.4%	94.02
26-50	13.6%	94.03
51-75	11.1%	93.42
76-100	12.7%	93.18
100+	11.2%	93.55

Does that look, to you, like a man who tires early? It doesn't look that way to me. Less than a full mile-per-hour is not significant in my eyes. He keeps missing bats and the home runs aren't even that much more significant.

One thing that does increase as Brandon Morrow starts progress: errors. Hardly the perfect metric of the fielding support he receives but it stands our none the less. In fact, of the 90 balls put in play in the 50-75 pitch bucket, 4.44% of them were turned into errors. That's only 4 errors of 6 committed behind him this season in total.

It isn't that Morrow is completely free of guilt and his defense has completely let him down, it is that shit happens. Shit seems to happen over and over to Brandon Morrow - only when it matters most. He comes so close to putting together completely dominant starts.

The skill is there. I don't think there is much development left for Brandon Morrow, more discovery.

Data from Joe Lefkowitz, AP Photo by Patrick Semansky courtesy of Daylife.

@Encadwin

Sometimes you don't need Twitter to verify shit to know an account is real. Give everyone's favourite Type B Free Agent hopeful a follow. You know, if you're into following someone just because they're a Blue Jay.

If you're not and you've been holding off on following some Blue Jay players may I recommend Brandon Morrow? I recently nominated @2Morrow23 for the Toronto Blue Jays Twitter Level of Excellence (currently holding a single handle; @Lunchboxhero45)

He has the smack talk down (exhibit A / B / C), understands the culture of twitter enough to get sarcastic with it and lets you know he's more than just a 98mph fastball throwing stud (an athlete who's going to hit double digits in books read in a season? Swooooooon). Plus, angry tweets hours after a game show 10 times the Grit (!) and Will to Win (!) than smashing up a Gatorade container mid-game.

If the hashtag #beastmode causes you to involuntary roll your eyes try having #rallysquints pop into your twitter feed.

Yes, the Jays get Rasmus and call up Lawrie since my last post and this is what I write about.

Dumping Ground

There is an lot of stuff going on and I am having a hard time addressing all of it. Instead, I'll mention some of it in passing. Lose-lose!

Social Media Dump

If you don't listen to the Getting Blanked podcast...you should. You can stream it here or download it here. I encourage one of each.

Speaking of media, the tidy GROF facelift comes courtesy of graphics God MPH. Check out his sweet site and follow him on Twitter. Thanks again Matias, great work!

You should also like Getting Blanked on facebook so you might enjoy both our empty pontification and good looks. This week we talk about no-hitters, and how we feel when they happen to "our" team. And cheap drugs.

Classy Segue

Though I didn't realize it then, my feelings on cheering for no-hitters was perfectly encapsulated by Tom Ley during Pitchers & Poets inaugural 90s First Basemen Week (keep your eye on that spot for a brief appearance by yours truly.)

Ley quoted a semi-famous joke by semi-famous genius David Foster Wallace, as seen below:

Two little fish are swimming around in the ocean and along their way they happen across a much bigger, older fish. The big fish nods at them and says, “Morning, boys. How’s the water?” The big fish swims on without the little fish answering; who stay silent for a few moments after the big fish has left. Finally, one of the little fish looks at the other and says, “What the hell is water?”

Which is to say: if you can't get out of your own way once in a while and appreciate something special going on around you, you're doomed.

Brandon Morrow's Identity

Am I crazy or do the Blue Jays and Brandon Morrow have a very different views of Brandon Morrow's abilities and durability? The DL session in the spring, the early hook based on a dropping arm slot - the team seems convinced his arm will come flying off at a moment's notice.

Morrow, as one would expect, feels differently. Can we safely say that the team doesn't have a great deal of confidence in Morrow to stay healthy? That the red flags shine brightly to the smart people who monitor such health risks? Consider what he told Shi Davidi:

"I didn’t really feel like I was losing velocity or getting fatigued," said Morrow. "I was throwing 88-89 mp.h. sliders. I didn’t hit 98. I hit 96, sat 93 most of the time. It was cold last night. The changeup I threw that Don Kelly hit was 89 miles per hour. Changeup."

Hard to argue with a man who says "changeup" to signify "boom - roasted."

Allow me to again voice my skepticism of the Jays offering to extend Brandon Morrow beyond his arbitration years. Based on nothing (really) I think the kid glove treatment reflects an organizational plan to get the most out of him while they can and let somebody else overpay when he is due to hit the open market.

Which isn't a bad idea at all, better to be cautious than go Dusty Bakering every young arm in sight, I suppose.

Inevitable Heat Maps Post

Heat maps! As I am not talented enough to create them using R or any such graphing software, I'll take advantage of Fangraphs latest attempt to get you fired - heat maps.

Heat maps are great way to visualize the relative effectiveness of pitches by location. The awesome dudes at The Process Report use heat maps to show how the Danks Theory worked to foil Shaun Marcum's dastardly change up.

Might clever meddlers like Joe Maddon apply similar witchcraft to neutralize this year's Opening Day starter¹ Ricky Romero? Let's look at the usage of Ricky's change up in 2010. The maps are from the perspective of the catcher, with the colours ranging from blue to red. Blue being less frequent, the stronger the colour the more frequent a pitch went to that location. Got it? Got it.



Hrrm. Don't be too surprised if you see Manny get a day off against Romero should the Jays new ace come up against the Rays in 2011. Romero does not show extreme splits between left and right but eliminating his best pitch is a good way to tip the scales.

The transformation of Brandon Morrow upon arrival was more than adjusting his arm angle and attempting to set his head straight. The Jays also expanded Morrow's arsenal by demanding the hard-throwing right-hander use his change up against lefties and increase the use of his curveballs from "none" to "some."



Wow, what a weapon! If Brandon Morrow — he of the high 90s fastball and moderately unfair slider — can work a decent change up over the outside corner to left-handed pitching?? Well, you might just have something there.

Finally and most predictably, here's a look at Marc Rzepczynski from deep inside the tank currently serving as my full time residence.



Based on Rzepczynski's unsightly splits in 2010, I say do less of that. Whatever it is. Please head over to Fangraphs yourself and fart around with this excellent new tool.
¹ - Book it. I'm way out there the limb with this bold prediction, I know.

Fault and Fracture

It wasn't long ago that I seemed to have an impressive ability to walk my way into near-no hitters. I'd wander around Deadtown Nowhere for a while, come home, and find some guy making the minimum facing the minimum through 5 or 6 innings. Of course there's no connection and jinxes and stuff aren't real, but then again....

Yesterday afternoon I'm mere steps from returning to Canada after a weekend in Pittsburgh doing all manner of #Heist-ey activities (more on that belowlater). After Wilner's interview with a disconcertingly accented Aaron Cibia, the game was on! Morrow mows down the Rays through the first few innings, I make a brief stop, all is well.

With a spouse suffering from inevitable baseball fatigue, the game went off for a while until she dozed off. Back to Jerry and Alan, I am shocked by what I hear. "Did he just say Brandon Morrow has 13 strikeouts???" Not only that but he hasn't allowed a hit? Zounds!

Morrow keeps rolling but so does my fine German automobile. Overmanagin' Joe Maddon drags his feet and screws around, trying to disrupt the Morrow express. Right about this time I realize I'm going to reach my destination before Morrow reaches destiny. I feel sick. I slow down as subtly as possible. Making the turn onto rural sideroad X as the top of 9 starts, I think I might be okay. Zobrist walks. Sickness once again.

We pull into the baby sitting in-laws place and there, after her first weekend at somebody else's place, is my kid. All cute and little and fun sponging. Oh shit, this is really going to happen. The kid's mom dives from the moving vehicle, desperate to smush the punim of her spawn. I dawdle in the driver's seat, opening the windows while leaving the radio up loud. The child chases into the house, Crawford lines out.

I'm defeated. I'm getting justified death eyes from a patient wife. The Kid cries out for me to come in, the very understanding grandparents —who disrupted their very busy lives for a weekend so I could drink Yuengling and shout my phone number at Troy Tulowitzki— eye me warily - this is it. I turn off the car, head inside to grab my offspring; confident in the knowledge that my actions have no impact on Brandon Morrow's slider.

Ten seconds later, my pocket vibrates. I grab the phone, hoping for the best. I don't finish reading the text before my daughter grabs the phone from my hands. The best is a relative thing.

AP Photo via Daylife.

A Second Tale of Two Brandons

Adding a wrinkle to a pitcher's delivery is a lot like giving a kid a new toy. He wants to play with it all the time, his TV friends don't want to talk about anything else, and whoever gave it to him is sure he's going to break it in a matter of minutes.

Brandon Morrow, as you're well aware, dropped his arm slot a few starts ago and now everything is sweet naked nectar. Nothing but strikeouts, ground balls, and the occasional half-dozen walk outing. Which stands in stark contrast to his swap partner and namesake — Morrow's results are quite positive. Is there anything to this lower arm slot? Does it help him throw strikes? Is it even real? The nerdmachine will tell us all the answers.



It's safe to say that, yes; Brandon Morrow dropped his arm slot. He's no Quisenberry, but he moved it down and out. I know the release point numbers pitch f/x spits out aren't super reliable from one park to the next, but trust me when I say I looked at outings from Rogers Centre only and they checked out.

But the movement's the thing, right? I know I saw Brandon Morrow toss some filthy tailing fastballs Friday night, really fooling hitters who gave up on fastballs that looked to be headed directly for their front hip. Is that new or just newsworthy because he threw them for strikes?

Pitch	Horizontal Break - Old Slot	Velocity OS	Horizontal Break - New Slot	Velocity NS
Four Seam FB	-2.41	93.5	-6.8	93.4
Curve	2.7	84.1	2.1	83.2
Sinking/Tailing FB	-6.25	89.9	-8.7	91.6

Dramatic as some of those changes are, they come with some provisos. I ignored vertical break for no good reason. I used the pitch classifications as they came - save one exception. I treated all Morrow's change ups as sinking fastballs. Surely some of these pitches are indeed changes while others are straight up fastballs masquerading as funkier stuff, but I don't have all night here.

The important takeaway here is how much more Bruce Walton has Brandon Morrow's electric fastball moving around. If it isn't astounding, it's close. Whether Morrow can keep throwing it for strikes is one thing (and by my rough count, his new arm slot produces slightly more pitches in "the strike zone"), but he'll miss a shit tonne MORE bats (13.4%) than he already did (7.6% in the higher slot.) And that's a good thing.

If Bruce Walton's next trick is using this lower arm slot to keep Brandon Morrow healthy, I won't know what to do with myself. Make Walton the new manager! NO WAIT &mdash don't change a thing. Fire up the quality starter assembly line and go with a 162 man rotation! A no-hitter every night! The fun we'll have!!

Emasculating image courtesy of Reuters/Daylife. Pitch f/x help from Joey and Brooksie, two people who don't deserve hockey nicknames.

My Solemn Vow

For the second time in week, I went out for an evening stroll with my progeny and dungeon master. We wander the streets surrounding our modest domicile; critiquing the exterior designs of homes far more valuable than our own. We make our way back to our house when the two-foot tall microperson that lives in my house is fast asleep, usually between 8 and 9.

Despite the shouts and screams of ever fibre of my being, I generally resist checking my ever-present phone during these outings. In other words, when I settle in and turn on the TV I do so without knowing the status of the ongoing Jays game.

As I said before, tonight marked the second time in a week that I left during a Jays night game. Both times, after coming home from walks, I've found myself smack dab in the center of Blue Jays pitchers working NO HITTERS. Twice. Twice!!!

Suffice to say, there is a lot of walking in my future. Expect me to announce a monochromatic shoe deal before the end of the week. I'm going to buy one of those obnoxious jogging strollers that crowd the sidewalks of a WASPy neighbourhood near you. Who cares! I'm going to walk into perfect games 4 nights a week! I'm already excited!

Who Needs What?

The emergence of the optionless King of Spring Dana Eveland throws all sorts of wrenches into the best laid plans of rosterbators and Clarence haters. Jordan Pulitzer suggests both Rzepcyznski and Cecil might start the season in AAA to make room for Eveland. Makes sense, the Jays need to finally strike it rich with a found money deal like Eveland. But I don't agree that Cecil or Rzekljal;kf should take the fall.

Bastian makes a good point in his justification of the kids staying south.

Why start the two youngsters in the Minors? Well... why not? The Jays want to get out of the practice of rushing players to the Majors. Developing properly takes priority and this is a season more about developing than contending. When there are guys like Tallet and Eveland to buy time for younger arms, why not use them and make sure the kids are good and ready?

Of Cecil, Rzepcyznski and Brandon Morrow, who needs the most time to rest a tender shoulder? Who is the furthest behind in terms of minor league (or even major league) starts? Who, by virtue of his high-end stuff, benefits the most for polishing his act to a fine sheen?

If every one is healthy and Eveland's truly an option, let Morrow grow even healthier and even more confident in his secondary stuff. Let Morrow hone his craft until the Cecil & R Zep show they aren't ready or Eveland proves spring numbers mean nothing.

Unless there's a section of the Jays front office concerned with the optics or burying the big stud horse 3000 klicks away while trotting out unassuming lefty after unassuming/ground ball inducing lefty. An understandable concern, though the number of semi-casual Jays fans able to ID Brandon Morrow on a bet is no higher than those chagrined him starting the season in Vegas.

Photographic evidence of the coming Dana Eveland labrum searing courtesy of Colin McConnell of the Toronto Star.

They're Basically The Same Guy

Really quickly before everybody goes away for Christmas, I took a quick look at Dustin McGowan and Brandon Morrow. I only used a few starts (important distinction, Morrow threw MUCH harder out of the bullpen) but in terms of their stuff, they're like twins.

Click to enlarge

Look at that! Same dudes! McGowan looks to throw a two-seamer that Morrow doesn't have in his arsenal. Morrow's change is a little more 12-6, which means very little to me right now. That is the big pitch for both these guys, not to mention every league average pitcher around. What about the old-fashioned break chart?

Click to enlarge

That's a crazy amount of break on some of Morrow's curveballs. In these instances there isn't a lot of side-to-side movement on his slider either. Looks like what they say is true: he is absolutely in love with his fastball. Balance friend, you need balance.

Sorry this post is a little light on content, but what do we think?

Holiday Cheer!

You would think that someone who first wrote about their fondness for Brandon Morrow in June of 2008 would be excited at the prospect of acquiring such a stud. When that stud comes at the expense of my favorite enigma, I'm less than impressed.

Consider the past seven days. Two of my favorite players jettisoned from the team I follow with a third signing a very team-friendly extension in another town (an extension he never would've signed here, but I digress.) If the Jays do include Zach Stewart in the Morrow deal (it looks like they won't. COTF!) then I'm not quite sure what I'll do with myself. Sure, Josh Roenicke could replace League's production in the 'pen, but he certainly won't satisfy my curiosity or desire to be entertained.

Style is funny thing, especially in baseball. Roy Halladay and Brandon League couldn't possibly contrast any more, yet I held them in the same perverse regard. There's little chance of any current Blue Jay taking up the role of confirmed anomaly. I appreciate what AA's trying to do (fuck with me?) and my fandom is not in doubt, but it's tough to imagine my slavish devotion to laundry being stretched any further.

Which is to say nothing of my sliderule's favorite pitch f/x subjects. Who's left? Who's interesting? I'll look at Morrow more closely sometime soon, and I think Brett Cecil has a chance to be my next favorite. But there's no replacing the clinical Halladay and the fit-to-be-tied League.

Instead of morosely staring at my navel and feeling sorry for myself, I'll instead look back at some of my favorite Brandon League posts.

• Brandon League was much, much better than you realize in 2009. Wins are horseshit, even when League gets them.
  
• Documenting League's ownage of the Yankees.
  
• One of the many times I nearly lost my religion.
  
• I had big expectation of League in 2009 and he nearly matched them.

It's been a slice Brandon. Here's hoping you can acquire number 22 in Seattle without too much difficulty. Now on to the self pity!

Overheard at the Ballpark

A most interesting and eventful night at the ballpark ce soir. My first time taking in a game by myself, I was afforded sobriety time for personal reflection and drank in all that I saw and heard.

• Outside of Joe Inglett's heroics, my clear-cut highlight was seeing Darryl from the Office and Larry fucking Miller sitting three rows down in my section. As they got up to leave, my shout of "We're driving to Flahridah!" stopped Larry Miller cold in his tracks. The reliable character actor turned and smiled, and I knew we were down.
• I met the future of Ghostrunner on First, and its name is "young blond kid sitting behind me." The future Grofman, his father and I exchanged idle baseball chit-chat for a few innings before he showed me his true colours. Upon David Eckstein's emergence from the dugout to pinch run, my protégé turned to his dad and proclaimed: I Hate Eckstein! I gave this young man a high five, and he gave me faith in the future of humanity.
• Guys named Brandon throw hard. While they are prone to bouts of wildness, they are prone to bouts of dominance as well. The surfing one was on tonight, the phenom not so much. Cito slowly ratchets up the leverage, and Brandon League by and large responds.
• Adam Lind hits nought but line drives, and takes nought but bad routes to the baseball.
• Interesting that Ichiro had the game-winning hit go over his head. In the ninth inning, I saw Miguel Cairo waving him back (deeper), pointing to the dugout indicating the order came from on high.
• The Mariners changed pitchers twice in the middle of at bats. I can't think of the last time I saw this, let alone twice in one game.
• We may lament the state of the Blue Jays offense, yet the Mariners had 3 starters in today's game with sub-.300 on base percentages. Kenji Johjima also sports a sub-.300 slugging percentage, adding up to a cool OPS of .534. Ouch.

That is it, swing by Walk Off Walk today and demand Blue Jays content. I'll do my best to represent the centre of the universe.

News To Use At Your Lesuire

The last time the Jays faced the Mariners, I shit all over the M's only to see them take 2 of 3 from the Torontos. The Mariners are now leaner, having volunteered Richie Sexson to be this year's corpse in a Yankees Jersey who suddenly bursts back to life. The M's slump into Toronto with only one win since the All Star break; and will send three wise wizards with wins o'four to the mound in the forms of Miguel Batista, Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn. Brave warriors that take to the hill armed only with respective ERA+ of 58, 71 and 84.

All is not lost for the M's though. Brandon Morrow is not of this Earth. On numerous occasions I have staved off slumber just for the pleasure of watching him mop up meaningless games with sheer gas. Easy, effortless, triple digit gas. 44 Ks in 33 2/3 innings? Yikes. He's pitched 4 innings against the Jays this season, notching 5 strikeouts and allowing but one baserunner. It is sad to say that other than Ichiro and Morrow, the only thing Seattle has going for it is the always impressive U.S.S. Mariner, among the best in Blogri-La

Take a Spin Around the Globe

• Neate at Out of Left Field wrote an excellent piece on Carlos Delgado's HoF eligibility. The idea of King Carlos in the Hall bubbled up in the comments of our Greatest Jay Season post, but sadly Neate punches a few reality-shaped holes in this pipe dream.
• Follow this link and watch goofy NESN dudes Jerry Remy and Don Orsillo cracking up in a most professional fashion on the air. Sportsnet does a good job of force-feeding us Sox games when the Jays are off, so I can say with some confidence that these two are highly enjoyable. More to the point, can you imagine Jamie Campbell or Rance Mulliniks laughing this hard at anything in the entire world. I'm a sucker for scenes of grown-ass men enjoying themselves and letting loose in a moment of wifeless splendor, so this is right up my alley.
• Our friend /a of Bottom of the Order has poked his head out, squinted at the sun and sworn to return to the Blue Jays universe. We're all better for it.

Finally, I have a very exciting personal announcement. Starting tomorrow, I will be the new Weekend Editor at Walk Off Walk. Their exhaustive search for a sufficiently qualified aging hardcore kid with a baseball blog came up empty, so they were forced to ask me to take the reins on the weekends. I'm really excited to do it, and hope some Blue Jay-type people come and check it out. The men in charge are Red Sox/Yankee fans, so a little Cancon will be certainly appreciated. It will be business as usual here at Ghostrunner on First: your source for third-hand Blue Jays news, recycled opinion and low-to-middle concept comedy.