They're Basically The Same Guy

Really quickly before everybody goes away for Christmas, I took a quick look at Dustin McGowan and Brandon Morrow. I only used a few starts (important distinction, Morrow threw MUCH harder out of the bullpen) but in terms of their stuff, they're like twins.

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Look at that! Same dudes! McGowan looks to throw a two-seamer that Morrow doesn't have in his arsenal. Morrow's change is a little more 12-6, which means very little to me right now. That is the big pitch for both these guys, not to mention every league average pitcher around. What about the old-fashioned break chart?

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That's a crazy amount of break on some of Morrow's curveballs. In these instances there isn't a lot of side-to-side movement on his slider either. Looks like what they say is true: he is absolutely in love with his fastball. Balance friend, you need balance.

Sorry this post is a little light on content, but what do we think?

Dustin McGowan -- Total Recall

One of the most tiresome questions of spring has become: Who will replace the innings of Marcum, McGowan, and the other guy? I continually come back to something ever-present commenter and Jays superfan Torgen said months ago: McGowan will replace his own innings. All 111 that he pitched last year. Even if he doesn't start until June, he'll have three months to make up that lost time. The question the three-boobed hooker demands answered is a simple one: when McGowan returns, will he be a mild-mannered Quaid or criminal mastermind Hauser?

Dustin McGowan, we've all seen, has a dazzling repertoire of pitches yet hasn't registered the results we should expect. His plus fastball averages over 94 mph for his career, his slider/curve/changeup combination should miss many bats, but he's been a 4.00 FIP pitcher during his starting career. (A 4.00 FIP isn't awful by any stretch, I'd say it equates nicely to a 2/3 level starter.) He's never quite been able to put it all together, aside from the second half of 2007. Even then, a few interesting things stick out:

• He went 3-1 in July of 2007 with an 2.78 ERA. Awesome, though his FIP was closer to 5, indicating a lot of luck that month.
  
• He pitched the exact same number of innings (32.1) in August 2007 as July. He struck out 10 more batters, walked 4 fewer, and surrendered the same number (4) home runs. The result? A record of 1-3, and ERA increase of more than a run but a FIP decrease by that same full run.
  
• League Average strand rate runs around 73%. McGowan's never really approached that number. Check out this graph, matching him with Justin Verlander. Similar names, similar heaters, slightly different perceptions and track records. Verlander stranded more runners than average twice. Two seasons in which he won 17 and 18 games.

What does this tell us? For one, wins are horseshit and ERA paints a tiny corner of a giant picture. Secondly, it tells us what we knew already: Dustin McGowan cruises, cruises, cruises...explodes. That was always the rap on him before 2007, and it seemed to hold true in 2008.

The other problem McGowan had is similar to the challenges facing David Purcey, wildness in and out of the strike zone. Too many walks some days, but he can battle with his excellent stuff. Few walks other days, but a couple misplaced breaking pitches leave the yard and his day is done quickly.

So what was the point of this whole thing in the first place? Ah yes, Dustin McGowan wasn't that great in 2008, not quite irreplaceable anyway. David Purcey and McGowan are very similar pitchers, and The M-Bird pointed out last year. Same age, similar K numbers, similar fly ball tendencies, sadly familiar walk rates. Eventually they project around two thirds of a run differently, the edge going to McGowan.

So we can bemoan the loss of McGowan for most of the first half, but let's remember he missed just as much of 2008, and when he stuck around he didn't dominate as we'd like. A guy like Purcey can stand in nicely for McGowan's heartbreaking ways.

McGowan done

In what hopefully isn't a blow to his career, Dustin McGowan is going to miss the remainder of the season to undergo surgery on his damaged labrum.

McGowan hasn't pitched since July 8th, when he came out of the his start against the Orioles due to the pain after 4 innings. He was diagnosed with a partial tear of his rotator cuff last September, and a look earlier this month reveled no further damage.

If nothing more needs to be done to the rotator cuff, McGowan should be available for Spring Training next year.

Winning ways to continue on the Left Coast

The nine game road trip continues tonight as the Jays stroll into Anaheim looking for their third straight victory. After losing the opener bayside, the Jays picked up the last two against Oakland with the last seeing Jesse Litsch follow up his shutout performance with another gem. Yes, Jesse fucking Litsch is 7-1. The naysayers have all shut their mouths and have started a lineup hoping to get their very own shot at swinging from his nuts.

The 12-0 thrashing of the A's saw a few rarities that even made me wonder what the hell was going on. Rod Barajas hit three doubles, which must tie or only leave him one shy of his career total. Kevin Mench recorded three hits, which is the first time since September of last season he's done so. Shannon Stewart actually put a ball over the fence, something I didn't think I'd see for the remainder of his career.

Dustin McGowan takes the hill tonight and is 0-3 vs. the Angels is his young career sporting a decent 3.27 ERA in five games (three starts). Clearly he's going to pick up his first victory tonight. Jared Weaver counters for the Halos and has beaten the Jays the only two times he's faced them. It ends tonight, as the Jays will no doubt thrash him.

It's only a matter of time before the bubble bursts down in Florida when the Rays coming crashing back to the reality of competing in the American League East. I suppose there is the slight possibility that won't happen, but I consider myself a realist.

Can't cash'em in

I'm quite sure I couldn't have been screaming my face off anymore than I was during the 8th and 9th innings tonight down at Rogers centre while the Jays did battle with the Angels. I was quite convinced that with the bases loaded, and none out in the 8th at the very least a couple of runs would cross the plate to make things interesting. Didn't happen. However, I was quite jubilant when again, the Jays loaded the bases with only one out in the bottom of the ninth courtesy of a wild K-rod. Aaron Hill was at the dish, and I was 99.97% sure that good things were going to happen. Didn't happen.

What happened? They shit all over themselves. It actually couldn't have been much worse really. For the love of god Alex, you just can't strike out looking in the bottom of the ninth with the tying run on second, and the winning run on first. Swing the fucking bat. Jump in front of the fucking ball or something, I don't care. Don't sit there like a chump though. You're better than that.

Again, the pitching was solid. Didn't look like McGowan had his best stuff, however he made the most of what he did have, and gave the Jays the chance to win the game. All told the Jays left 23 runners on base while scoring just one run on 9 hits. What can you do. One thing that Toronto fans are getting to realize on the off chance they weren't already aware is that Scott Rolen is a fucking beast at third base. It really is a pleasure to watch him swallow up everything hit in his vicinity. Gold fucking gloves son.

Haven't I seen this before?

I'm pretty sure I did. I clearly remember sitting here on my couch watching the Jays lose to the Red Sox in the bottom of the ninth on a single up the middle. Although, who'd really expect to win games when you can't actually get players across home plate. Really, that is the goal of baseball, to get as many of your players to cross home, hopefully more often than the other team resulting in victory. Sadly, it appears they have forgotten just how to do this, resulting in yet another wasted pitching effort, this time by Dustin McGowan.

There isn't much more that can be said. If you don't score runs, you're not going to win very often. Last time I checked, scoring once or twice a game just doesn't cut it. McGowan continues to show that he just may have the stuff to be a #1 one day, and I for one am not at all surprised. David Eckstein continues doing a great job of getting out, and it seems he's shown Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Aaron Hill how to go about doing it as well.

Watching Johnny Mac come in to pinch run and subsequently get picked off was indicative of just how it's been going lately for this team, and I can only imagine they feel like complete ass at this point.

ON THE SIDE -

The Habs lose to the horseshit Flyers. If there is a team I dislike more in professional sports, I'm can't think of it. Fuck Bobby Clarke.

The Phillies lose, like I give a shit. However, Ryan Howard continues to look like a complete waste of skin. Glad I picked him in the pool. He's batting .172

John Smoltz goes on the 15 day DL and indicates he'll come back as a reliever. Awesome, another blow to my shit dick fantasy team.

An all England Champions League final. Fucking right.

Other stuff is going on as well, but I have no time for any of it.

0-3 is it time to panic?

Fuck no.

Ryan Ketchner will require new sheets in his bed however. The Jays dropped their 3rd game in a row to start the spring, but all in all there were some good things that came out of today. Dustin McGowan threw two scorless innings of two hit ball as did Casey Janssen. Really I could care less how Ryan Ketchner threw the ball. We all know big things are expected of McGowan after a quality second half last season.

The Jays haven't accomplished much at the plate this spring, but if you're worried about that after just 3 spring training games, maybe you should re-evaluate the way you look at the game. I'm looking forward to seeing how A.J. Burnett pitches tomorrow when the Jays take on the Reds. I don't know what everyone else thinks, but I believe he has the stuff to put together a great season if he can somehow stay healthy the whole way.

I haven't really been able to decide who I'd rather see as the fifth starter this season and to be honest still am unsure. However, I'm starting to think it's going to be Janssen to start the season anyway. I don't think Litsch is neccessarily a bad choice either, it's just a hunch I have.

By the way, baseball kicks serious fucking ass.