David Purcey - High Leverage Reliever

Hard to believe that this day has come! David Purcey - that big foot havin' mofo - is a viable, reliable reliever in big spots. Who knew? Clarence (who managed the bullpen like a champ last night) continues to show faith in David Purcey. Purcey repays Clarence's confidence with a string of successful appearances¹ setting him up for more and more heavy lifting.

The graph below tracks the situational leverage of the game when David Purcey enters (in blue). Quite a few mop up roles (0.00 LI) but a positive trend towards steady work in the last innings of close games. The black line represents Purcey's win probability added in each game. Obviously high leverage situation means the outcome is still in doubt, meaning Purcey can still impact the game either way. Giving up 3 runs in a mop up role doesn't really impact your WPA because, just like you can't be "more late", you can't ruin a game that's already in the bag (so to speak.)



Decent stuff, a definite trend. But wait, was that ¹ floating around from before?

Right! I said his appearances were successful, which they have been. What I didn't say was they haven't been especially good or repeatable. Trouble brews.

David Purcey sports a gaudy ERA under 2 with only one loss and one save in 21 appearances. Unfortunately, all his peripherals point to one monstrous, hideous appearance in the not-so-distant future. His .200 BABIP will swell but quick, his 82.% strand rate might not hold up for much longer either (his spotty track record is of a man with a terrible strand rate, so the real Purcey is somewhere in the middle.) His home run per fly ball is uncomfortably low, especially for a guy who gets ground balls only 36% of the time.

That doesn't mean that the 2010 version of David Purcey is the same, largely ineffective David Purcey from season's past. His swinging strikes are up, his contact rates are down. More swings at pitches outside the zone, less contact inside the strike zone. Those are harbingers of an effective pitcher.

He throws his fastball a lot more and to a much greater effect. While he'll never be confused with Shaun Marcum or Greg Maddux, getting ahead with the fastball and using his slider almost exclusively as an offspeed continues to pay dividends.

David Purcey is, shockingly, 28 years old. He's under team control for another 4 years, which is hilarious. There is no reason to believe he can't survive the coming normalization of his numbers and continue developing into a top-notch reliever, not unlike his teammate Scott Downs. Or, as previously discussed here, a cut rate closer with a heavy fastball for an up-and-coming team on a budget.

Image courtesy of Blog TO, data from Fangraphs and BR.

Auditions

Late in a game with an outcome no longer in doubt, David Purcey emerged from the Jays bullpen to mop up against the stellar Rays of Tampa. Sure, the Rays looked like they needed to catch a bus, but hey, his stuff was good. Purcey missed some bats, threw some smoke and generally did his bit to end the game in respectable time.

Glancing quickly at the Gameday Pitch F/X data, it looks like Purcey might messed around with this change and curve again; getting away from the streamlined approach that afforded him so much success in the spring.

Please Cito; use this fine two inning performance as a springboard to higher leveraged appearances. A little at a time, like Brandon League last year. Give Purcey a change to earn your trust and a chance to get used to warming up in a hurry or whatever magic spell relievers use to be effective 4 out of 5 days.

Bandit Auditions

As someone who lives blogs a few games a month, I can say the 2010 Jays are a god send. Not only do they seem to play a lot of close games, they do it in a hurry. The Jays reckless offensive abandon coupled with their pitching and defensemore pitching run prevention strategy, the Jays sliced a cool 12 minutes off their average game time.

According to Baseball Reference and my sweet Excel skills, the average Jays game in 2010 checks in around 2 hours and 49 minutes. While not the brisk pace of a popless NL West tilt, it is down from 3:01 last year, according to Joe Posnanski.

What does it mean? Not much, other than an extra quarter hour to spend waiting for the other Clarence shoe to drTOO LATE.

David Purcey: Closer, LOOGY, or Swingman?

The topic du jour around the Jays was ZOMG! David Purcey's a reliever! He trimmed the fat of his pitching arsenal, we're told. The results even mustered a compliment or two out of The Manager, who even managed to get Purcey's name right.

Coupling Purcey's 'pen rebirth with Jesse Carlson's balky knee creates even more havoc in the crowded bullpen picture. On the radio tonight, Wilner all but handed an Opening Day spot to Purcey. Meaning Accardo, Roenicke, the guy with the Zs in his name, are all fighting for a solitary spot in the bullpen as well as fighting to avoid the ignominy of telling Casey Janssen that he needs to pack his shit and go.

What role will Purcey fill in this bullpen? What role could he fill given the change? With Downs, Frasor and Kevin "The Please Don't Hurt Us MLBPA UFA Signing*" Gregg fighting it out for saves, will Purcey just mop up or might he face some high leverage situations? Might he find his way pack to the rotation one day or is he doomed to a life of journeymannery and service time groveling?

It's tough to base too much on David Purcey's 2009 season, as it was God-awful. Purcey, coming off a great spring, pitched like so many bags of so many asses and the team promptly gave up on him. He walked so many, sweats so much, and generally looked out of place the entire time (more on this in a minute.)

Before I dig too far into his split stats to decide if he'll ever get a right-handed batter out again in his life, let's look at the quality of his secondary pitches. Are the Jays right to ditch two of them?

	Whiff	OOZ (called balls)	Contact	BABIP
Curveball	8.33%	47%	20.80%	0.333
Change Up	4.08%	59%	14.30%	0.429
Slider	18.60%	39%	6.2%!!!	0.429

I think Papi Walton and I are going to get along just fine. Ditching the two ineffective pitches could give Purcey a new lease on life, though it might spell the end of his days toeing a pristine rubber. Two pitch starters don't have the longest shelf life.

The change up was a pitch Purcey used almost exclusively against right-handers to pretty poor results. Trying to keep batters from sitting on your fastball is a good thing, but you're going to need to throw strikes with that change at least some of the time.

Realistically, I could write 700 more words on what David Purcey did/does against right-handed pitching to justify his place on the team, but it really isn't that complicated: he needs to throw strikes. He can't throw strikes with the curveball or the change, so he's ditching them.

If B.J. Ryan can ride a deceptive windup and two solid pitches to a huge contract and one of the better seasons by a reliever in Blue Jays history, David Purcey can become an effective high-leverage reliever. As uncomfortable as I am saying it, make up really makes a difference for guys like these.

From what I've seen, David Purcey pitches scared and can't wait to come out of games. His furtive glances into the dugout are many, his gutted out innings are few. Maybe he needs a change of scenery, as they say. A wake up call demanding he stay focused with every pitch, ensuring he makes the most out of his abundant physical gifts.

So can he close, or be the high-leverage guy if that's how you get down? I think so. Purcey's strikeout numbers are strong and he doesn't give up too many home runs. The walks are what kill him, doubly so out of the bullpen. A refined repertoire and a renewed outlook could make David Purcey a completely new pitcher.

* - it isn't catchy but I hope it sticks! PDHUMTU!!!1!

Reuters Photo? Guess. Pitch F/X data? Joe Lefkowitz!

The True Victim of an Unbalanced Schedule

As Blue Jays fans, we're used to getting a raw deal from the unbalanced schedule. Beyond the fact that "our" team is 7 games over .500 against the rest of the league but 20 games under in the home division and so on and so forth, we getting robbed in a different way. Simply: not enough games against Detroit.

Playing the Tigers is great fun. The closest team geographically, an old rival of many battles and shared fans, a team with a great ballpark and nice uniforms. While I appreciate the tradition of pitting the Jays against the Tigers at the season's outset, it also means only one more series all year long. That blows.

As a collective, I'm sure we can muster up the support for the Jays and Major League Baseball to eschew one meaningless interleague series in favor an extra Tigers tilt. I can't help but think there's more revenue in it for all involved parties. If a return to a fair and balanced schedule were to surface, I'd gladly take an empty series in Kansas City or two in exchange for another trip to Comerica.

Irony Alert

The Jays close out the season series against the Tigers tonight with David Purcey making his first big league start since April. Despite what I've stated above, and despite David Purcey making a scant 17 big league starts; tonight's will be his FOURTH against the Tigers. That makes less sense than most things. Even more bizarrely, he's kind of owned the power hitting and right hand-heavy Tigers. Only 9 hits allowed in 17 innings (what? 13 walks. Hush your mouth.) While most seem to have completely written Purcey off, I'm excited to see what he can do. Big dudes with live arms will get more than their fair share of chances, hopefully Sweaty Dave can make the most of this one.

Skynet Begins to Learn at a Geometric Rate. It Becomes Self-Aware at 2:14 a.m

A little bit of hubris is to be expected, nay encouraged, in someone as great as Roy Halladay. The fact that he wants the ball, he needs the ball is admirable and part of what makes him great. Halladay's knowledge that he can get anyone out at any time is awesome, mostly because it's true.

That said, is pitching around Ian "streak hitter notorious for fast starts currently crushing the ball in April" Kinsler really a bad idea? Especially with the ghost of Michael Young, to that point 0-3 with 2 strikeouts on deck. It's easy to say after the fact, but the better part of valor is discretion or some shit. No way is Cito going to tell Roy Halladay has to do his business, and nor should he.

Cito's Decision Making

I'm not going to touch this hot potato simply because I can't be bothered. There is too much room for ifs and buts in any given baseball game. This is as polarizing an issue that exists around a 10-5 (p!) team and I think my position on it is pretty clear. The only question I have is this: people rush to use the Jays record under Cito has their One True Defense of his tactics. Ever thought the team achieves in spite of him? Heretical as it may seem, it gives a lot of credibility to the "managers don't do a damn thing" theory. Three hitting coaches do plenty, in game management tends to come out in the wash.

Tonight, Tonight

Time to break out lineup 1b as the Jays face another shitballing lefty in Matt Harrison. Four pitches, all thrown around the same speed, the stuff that used to give the Jays fits. David Purcey, he of consistently inconsistent release point (first is a good start, next two were bad) will lead the Jays into battle. I love David Purcey, for his weird inability to string good starts together and lights-out stuff. Here's hoping he can set down the lumberjacks in short order. The closer the game the more room for complaint and venom.

My Worst Fears Confirmed

Remember a week ago when I warned the bullpen could become a concern this year? Remember when I said the combination of starters with high pitch counts mixed with a bullpen primed for a regression could spell disaster?

It might have only been one game, but outings like yesterday's could haunt the Jays all season long. Brandon League will NOT be this bad going forward. He'll probably lose his "prime right handed set up guy" job to Jason Frasor's fosh, but he'll get to work out the kinks at the big league level. If I knew about such things, I'd be inclined to believe League's problems are a combination of mechanical and mental. Whatever the source, he forgot how to locate his pitches. That's bad. Moderately effective Shawn Camp couldn't find the plate either, and hasn't all week. That's not as bad, but it still isn't' good. The Jays pen has already allowed 16 walks. That sucks. The staff ERA is up around 4.75; a figure made worse by their (very early, of course) bloated FIP, currently hovering near 6.

Obviously getting hysterical about a 5-2 team isn't worth the effort (PLAYOFFS!), but the starters are going to continue to place the bullpen in tough situations. Just throw strikes people, it's really that simple.

Weekend Mechanical Goats/Simulated Hero-Figures

You'll be shocked to learn that Saturday's win came courtesy of real life Simulated Hero-Figure Roy Halladay. Aaron Hill's bases loaded single in the second inning matched Jason Frasor's strike out of Victor Martinez in the 9th in the race to become the game's biggest play.

The sweep didn't pan out and we have Marco Scutaro to blame? If the robots tell me so, it much be true. I suppose his strike out with runners on second and third with one out in the seventh inning of a one-run ballgame will do that. I can't stay mad at Scutaro as he's playing so far above his replacement-level head right now. This is all house money anyway.

Dustin McGowan -- Total Recall

One of the most tiresome questions of spring has become: Who will replace the innings of Marcum, McGowan, and the other guy? I continually come back to something ever-present commenter and Jays superfan Torgen said months ago: McGowan will replace his own innings. All 111 that he pitched last year. Even if he doesn't start until June, he'll have three months to make up that lost time. The question the three-boobed hooker demands answered is a simple one: when McGowan returns, will he be a mild-mannered Quaid or criminal mastermind Hauser?

Dustin McGowan, we've all seen, has a dazzling repertoire of pitches yet hasn't registered the results we should expect. His plus fastball averages over 94 mph for his career, his slider/curve/changeup combination should miss many bats, but he's been a 4.00 FIP pitcher during his starting career. (A 4.00 FIP isn't awful by any stretch, I'd say it equates nicely to a 2/3 level starter.) He's never quite been able to put it all together, aside from the second half of 2007. Even then, a few interesting things stick out:

• He went 3-1 in July of 2007 with an 2.78 ERA. Awesome, though his FIP was closer to 5, indicating a lot of luck that month.
  
• He pitched the exact same number of innings (32.1) in August 2007 as July. He struck out 10 more batters, walked 4 fewer, and surrendered the same number (4) home runs. The result? A record of 1-3, and ERA increase of more than a run but a FIP decrease by that same full run.
  
• League Average strand rate runs around 73%. McGowan's never really approached that number. Check out this graph, matching him with Justin Verlander. Similar names, similar heaters, slightly different perceptions and track records. Verlander stranded more runners than average twice. Two seasons in which he won 17 and 18 games.

What does this tell us? For one, wins are horseshit and ERA paints a tiny corner of a giant picture. Secondly, it tells us what we knew already: Dustin McGowan cruises, cruises, cruises...explodes. That was always the rap on him before 2007, and it seemed to hold true in 2008.

The other problem McGowan had is similar to the challenges facing David Purcey, wildness in and out of the strike zone. Too many walks some days, but he can battle with his excellent stuff. Few walks other days, but a couple misplaced breaking pitches leave the yard and his day is done quickly.

So what was the point of this whole thing in the first place? Ah yes, Dustin McGowan wasn't that great in 2008, not quite irreplaceable anyway. David Purcey and McGowan are very similar pitchers, and The M-Bird pointed out last year. Same age, similar K numbers, similar fly ball tendencies, sadly familiar walk rates. Eventually they project around two thirds of a run differently, the edge going to McGowan.

So we can bemoan the loss of McGowan for most of the first half, but let's remember he missed just as much of 2008, and when he stuck around he didn't dominate as we'd like. A guy like Purcey can stand in nicely for McGowan's heartbreaking ways.

David Purcey Makes a Statement

Loudly and proudly, the big lefty made a bold statement: Lloyd the Barber is an idiot.

I, for one, agree.

In his (my) defence, Brandon League is awesome. I claim complete ownership over his greatness. Ground floor! Ground floor!

I am very much afraid of Gary Sheffield, in both a baseball sense and a public safety sense.

Why am I longing for Eckstein? Is there anyway he and Inglett could play every day? I am experiencing strong yet conflicting feelings here. I'm nauseated and woozy. This is bad.

Wednesdays with JP! Mouthbreathers Unite!

I don't usually listen to JP's hour on the radio, but there it was on Wilner's blog, and here I am looking for an excuse to shoot my mouth off. I feel like I'm stealing numerous people's shtick here. For that I apologize.

First question: Why wouldn't you get Paul Byrd? Ya could've, ya know? Fer nothin!

JP's paraphrased answer: Because he sucks. He'd maybe be as good as our 4/5th starter, except he makes 5 times as much money. And he sucks. Yes, he pitched well against the Jays once. You know, the Jays team that can't score runs and has a terrible offense that you constantly complain about.

Unbeknownst to this "fan", the other Major League clubs don't play against the Jays exclusively. When Paul Byrd faces teams that don't have an offense that ranks in bottom third of the league, he gets lit. And he sucks.

Rational Human that likely works for the FAN: Bob McGowan wants to have a tête-à-tête. Will you?

Lloyd the Riccardi: Bob McGowan is a smart, entertaining guy. A smart, entertaining guy that hosts a drive-time radio program. Bob v. JP would be big business. And a futile lose-lose situation for JP.

Bob would say "You turned a .500 baseball team into a .500 baseball team." JP would say "We have an enough young, cheap pitching to fill two farm systems. We currently carry maybe three (Overbay, Ryan, and kinda, sorta, Wells) bad and/or questionable contracts. Team interest is at all time high. Our pitching keeps us in every game. We will contend for a playoff spot with even a slight offensive improvement." And Bob would say they didn't win enough games, and you've had 7 years. JP would agree, and say he wishes they won more. Bob would smugly point out that JP, by his own admission, is a failure. They'd go back and forth, without ever really discussing baseball (which Bob knows very little about) at all. Then they'd go off the air, and Bob would say "Thanks JP, that was really good radio." And JP will have wasted his time.

Earnest Youngster: I heart the Jays and you're doing a bang-up job. Good work JP.

JP: I value your opinion slightly less than that of the rosin bag. But thanks.

Another dummy: My friends and I think you should trade Halladay for a bat. lol!

What JP wanted to say: Fuck off.

What JP actually said: Seriously, fuck off. Go back to reading the same article Maxim has been publishing for 8 years.

Same dummy: You can pitch a no-hitter and have a Gold Glove defence, but if you don't put any runs across you are going to lose.

Lloyd the Apologist: Incorrect. At worst, you'd be tied. So THERE!

Hopeless dreamer: Grady Sizemore is good. Go get him!

JP the Barber: I'd love to, but I'm balls deep in Megan Fox right now. I was in the process of calling Mark Shapiro with an offer this afternoon; but Hemingway called and asked that I orate my memoirs to him. Then Megan came over. I'll get to it tomorrow.

Harsh Realist: Alex Rios is lazy and lacks motivation.

Bizarro JP: He hates his job, a job that maybe 120 people in the entire world are qualified to do. The job you'd kill a bus full of nuns to have. And he's richer than you could ever comprehend. Richer than you'll ever be, even if you lived a thousand lifetimes. You spend your Wednesday evening's calling me to complain about baseball players lack of heart; he's in bed with somebody's wife and daughter right now. At the same time! Like right this very minute! Sleep tight!

Show Me the Pink!

As you may well have heard, the Jays recalled Jesse Litsch to the big club. Just in time to face the Detroit Tigers. After AJ and his not-so-great-against-the-Tigers numbers finish tonight, the Jays will send David Purcey and the Pink against the big bad Tigers. This does not fill me with a great deal of confidence. Looking a Jesse's splits, we can see that he is the ultimate feast or famine guy. He's vulnerable on the road and has trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark. The Tigers have no problem whatsoever hitting the ball out of the ballpark. The Jays then send David Purcey against the Tigers for the second time. Before his big league debut, I predicted grave things for the big lefty's start against a team that destroys lefties. He kept it respectable that day, aside from the 7 free passes he issued. I believe in Purcey, but the potential for ugliness at the back end of this series is huge.

I do not understand why the team called up Litsch to start against the Tigers, pushing Halladay back a day to open the series against the Red Sox. The relative magnitude of these two series is the same, isn't it? Hell, why not send lil' Litschy at the Sox? His record against them isn't bad at all.

The Sox will have a new face in their midst as well, acquiring old-timey Jay killer Paul Byrd. It seems Tim Wakefield's shoulder can't hold up to the strain of flicking knuckleballs 65 mph for 20 years. All these deals after the non-waiver deadline, is nothing sacred anymore? Doesn't that mean the Jays could've had Adam Dunn for a song? (Note: Only if their record was worse than the D-Backs.) If they are truly going to shut down Accardo for the year, they could move him to the 60 day DL and clear up a spot on the 40 man roster. That would be some sweet spiting.

One thing that is certainly sacred; the legacy of the Montreal Expos. There is a nice retrospective on ESPN's page 2 today (Via Jonahkeri.com). My weekend overlords remind us that today is the 14th anniversary of the strike, and the Expos descent into hell that began that fateful day.

Our Home on Native Land

The racist nicknames are in town! The racist nicknames that were supposed to contend until all their big bats fell injured, so they blew out their roster of all expensive talent instead. The racist nicknames that haven't been playing very good baseball for the last two months. The racist nicknames that are looking up at Royals in the standings! Wow. This team isn't so great. And they still use that stupid racist nickname! A nickname so stupid it prompted our boy David Chalk to write an excellent piece last year calling for them to change it. Superstud Grady Sizemore has gone into a sympathy slump, quietly protesting the racist nickname. But who cares, they bring lovable dope Sal Fasano with them. The Indians send Cardinal Castoff Anthony Reyes against David Purcey tonight, Reyes' first start in the American League.

In the great Indian giving of 2008, the team got an excellent prospect who will partner with young players like Ben Francisco to improve their fortunes down the road. But for now, this team hasn't been good; putting together an impressive run of lose 2, win 1 stretches and coughing up huge leads to the god-forsaken Rays. Should David Purcey be able to keep the ball in the park, this is a good match up for a Blue Jays team looking to string some more wins together.

In Brief

• Micheal Silverman of the Boston Herald breaks down the race in the AL East. He only includes three teams. (via The Rays Index)
• Nothing sounds better than an 8-0-8 - Note: Bo Jackson in no way supports the Beastie Boys
• Someone finally realized that Melky Cabrera is terrible
• The Tao crushes all fakes

Enjoy the games, I'll be holding it down at Walkoff Walk again this weekend, swing by and see what kind of madcap hi jinks I can get myself into.

Jays Have Entire Night to Think of New Ways to Break Our Hearts

Mediocre headcase (who happens to be leading the AL in strikeouts) that is always hurt (yet is 7th in the AL in innings pitched this season and has started 5 times in 19 days) AJ Burnett was delivered another cosmic screwjob. He looked great, striking out the side in the bottom of 5. But he'll be forced into doing his best Erik Bedard impression for the rest of this one: watching from the dugout after 5 innings. Maybe he'll offer to start again on short rest? He's just the type of selfish prick to do that sort of thing. Jay fans are hilarious. Erik Bedard has been presented by the media as a selfish, aloof, me-first prick. Yet each of the last three off seasons featured people around here begging for his arrival. He would get standing ovations, he would have carte blache. But he's Canadian, just like free-pass holder Matt Stairs.

Wilner believes they won't finish this game tomorrow as it is getaway day. The Jays have to make the long flight to, uh, Toronto. While the Orioles are off to darkest...Baltimore? Bullshit. Turns out they are finish this game tomorrow before the getaway game. Halladay is starting so they won't even have to change flight times. The completion game is calling out for a Brandon League door-slamming. Go on Cito, what to you have to lose?

In a somewhat shocking move, the Jays slapped Jesse Litsch down to Syracuse like the red headed stepchild he had become. David Purcey is headed back up, which will no doubt send shivers across Avail tattoos all over Western Ontario. Hopefully he gets a start against a non-right hander-heavy juggernaut to give him a fighting chance. Seattle sounds just about right.

Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Whole Shit It's Hot

David Purcey, welcome aboard! Making your Major League debut tonight? Exciting innit? You've been lights out in the minors this year and the club expects big things from you. Here, try on this Gina Jumpsuit, it's Flashback Friday so we need you to look your best.

Here, Professor Arnsberg wants to go over the scouting report with you. I know, there sure are a lot of right handed hitters in this lineup. Yes, we are well aware that you throw with your left hand. Any chance you could change that in the next few minutes? No? It's alright, I'm sure you'll be fine.

Yeah, that does say Miguel Cabrera. You're right, he is a fat bastard, but he's only added 200 points to his slugging percentage, 100 to his average and 60 to his OBP this week. Don't worry, he's due to regress back into his slump. Edgar Renteria IS old, you're right. Ignore his career OPS+ of 125 against left handed pitching, it's a mirage. Magglio didn't win the batting title last year, that was a misprint. It was actually...uh...Ichiro. Yeah, Ichiro. Son of a bitch wins it every year.

Alright rook, you ready? At least the roof is open tonight! That will keep the ball in the ballpark. At least it should help. Just give us 5 and will call it even. Dear god why can't Halladay pitch every day?