Dustin McGowan -- Total Recall

One of the most tiresome questions of spring has become: Who will replace the innings of Marcum, McGowan, and the other guy? I continually come back to something ever-present commenter and Jays superfan Torgen said months ago: McGowan will replace his own innings. All 111 that he pitched last year. Even if he doesn't start until June, he'll have three months to make up that lost time. The question the three-boobed hooker demands answered is a simple one: when McGowan returns, will he be a mild-mannered Quaid or criminal mastermind Hauser?

Dustin McGowan, we've all seen, has a dazzling repertoire of pitches yet hasn't registered the results we should expect. His plus fastball averages over 94 mph for his career, his slider/curve/changeup combination should miss many bats, but he's been a 4.00 FIP pitcher during his starting career. (A 4.00 FIP isn't awful by any stretch, I'd say it equates nicely to a 2/3 level starter.) He's never quite been able to put it all together, aside from the second half of 2007. Even then, a few interesting things stick out:

• He went 3-1 in July of 2007 with an 2.78 ERA. Awesome, though his FIP was closer to 5, indicating a lot of luck that month.
  
• He pitched the exact same number of innings (32.1) in August 2007 as July. He struck out 10 more batters, walked 4 fewer, and surrendered the same number (4) home runs. The result? A record of 1-3, and ERA increase of more than a run but a FIP decrease by that same full run.
  
• League Average strand rate runs around 73%. McGowan's never really approached that number. Check out this graph, matching him with Justin Verlander. Similar names, similar heaters, slightly different perceptions and track records. Verlander stranded more runners than average twice. Two seasons in which he won 17 and 18 games.

What does this tell us? For one, wins are horseshit and ERA paints a tiny corner of a giant picture. Secondly, it tells us what we knew already: Dustin McGowan cruises, cruises, cruises...explodes. That was always the rap on him before 2007, and it seemed to hold true in 2008.

The other problem McGowan had is similar to the challenges facing David Purcey, wildness in and out of the strike zone. Too many walks some days, but he can battle with his excellent stuff. Few walks other days, but a couple misplaced breaking pitches leave the yard and his day is done quickly.

So what was the point of this whole thing in the first place? Ah yes, Dustin McGowan wasn't that great in 2008, not quite irreplaceable anyway. David Purcey and McGowan are very similar pitchers, and The M-Bird pointed out last year. Same age, similar K numbers, similar fly ball tendencies, sadly familiar walk rates. Eventually they project around two thirds of a run differently, the edge going to McGowan.

So we can bemoan the loss of McGowan for most of the first half, but let's remember he missed just as much of 2008, and when he stuck around he didn't dominate as we'd like. A guy like Purcey can stand in nicely for McGowan's heartbreaking ways.