This is Going Swimmingly

There isn't a better description of the "Travis Snider to Centerfield" experiment better than the way Stoeten of Drunk Jays Fans presents it - if a commenter or Jays Talk caller suggested it, I would trip over myself trying to shoot it down. What? Snider in center??? THAT'S CRAZY TALK!

Yet here we are. The husky kid some worried might only be DH down the road started two of the last three games in centerfield. And the results, they aren't terrible!



The ball stung right at you is really tough to judge. Snider does well to take a decent route and add the stylish "lunge-dive" at the end for style. Like all good centerfielders do.

Snider's arm and positioning drew raves all season in left after his work with Jose Bautista, will it hold up in CF?



Not the strongest throw of all time but he got rid of it quickly and right on the money. I like the way he just powered off his back leg, not much of a crow hop to eat up valuable seconds.



While this catch stretches my "highlight" credulity a little, it does demonstrate Snider taking a very direct route to a fly ball hit over his head.

Drawing any sweeping conclusions from this tiny sample is folly, but with my eyes I can say he doesn't look out of place in center. Obviously more innings present more challenges but, for now, this experiment deserves to continue. I cannot say I object to Farrell moving Snider to left and bringing in a move experienced guy as a late-inning defensive replacement when the situation allows.

Because the bat, the bat plays anywhere. It plays quite deliciously in centerfield, that much I know.

Update: - According to Total Zone fielding stats, Snider is 6 for 6 on balls in his zone as a CFer with one out of zone play. +/- ranks him as a +2 in a totally-not-worthless 21 inning sample. USA! USA! USA!

AP Photo courtesy of Daylife. Video finally prized from the cold, dead hands of MLBAM.

Defense Matters Question Mark

Many smart and calm people are quick to point out that the Jays, despite all the hand wringing, sport a decent record and continue making a decent account of themselves in the AL East.

The offense, powered by the One Man Gang, is the only aspect of the team that rates evenly slightly above average. The pitching is middle of the road (with the bullpen ahead of the starters) and the defense is merely adequate.

Merely adequate isn't all bad, when the litany of injuries and Encarnacioning is considered. The Jays manage to put out a league-average defensive club at worst for most nights. Comically early as it is, I thought I'd take a look at how the advanced metrics view the Jays so far in 2011 with some commentary of my own to follow.


I cut off the innings played limit at 45 to, um, ensure John McDonald was included. Science!

Safe to say EE isn't a very good defender at third base. SHOCKING, I KNOW. Whoever could see that coming when the team shoehorned him in there with a week remaining in spring training? WILL WONDERS NEVER CEASE?!?

Okay, with that out of our systems, we can move on. John McDonald, good at things! There is some slight disagreement regarding his play at third base but the sample is so tiny as if to render it useless. Short and second show his skills once again. Does that mesh with our collective view of John McDonald? I'd say so.

So Jose Bautista is good at baseball. Even baserunning! His legendary throwing arm is stuff of, err, legends. It also rates slightly behind Eeyore Rivera according to both Dewan and UZR. That is...less believable.

Both systems value Rivera's defense highly, mostly on the strength of his arm. His range might be negligible but his arm seems accurate and his release quick. Hard to ask more of a guy brought in to be Not Vernon Wells.

Both systems cast Yunel Escobar in a negative light with UZR fingering his lackluster range as the culprit. I can't say I disagree with this too strongly. He's fun to watch but I think we might see him at third base before all is said and done.

The Travis Snider number really distresses me. He looked so good out there this year, limiting extra bases and showing off the great work he put in during the offseason. Luckily, this is a tiny enough sample size from which I can cherry pick the numbers that suit my agenda.

On an unrelated note: Rajai Davis just isn't that good.

Any other thoughts on what you see here or the Jays defense in general? The Gordie Dougie crowd can rest easy in knowing that even if the Jays bring up Lawrie and he's terrible, he won't be worse than the alternative!

I'd like ot know your best (yet most realistic) defensive lineup if the Jays had a one-run lead to protect in the 9th. Do your worst.

Bait and Switch

Are you kidding me?

One can only speculate what this means, platoon-wise. Does Corey Patterson play right field against left handed pitching, with EE moving to first and Adam Lind moving somewhere far, far from the batters box? Mike McCoy? JOHN MACDONALD? What hath you wrought, Jose?

Just when I thought the team bought your silence about preferring the outfield, there you go, starting in right field. Not only have you ruined my infield AND outfield previews, you're going to kill poor Adam Lind. There is blood on your hands Jose. BLOOD. ON YOUR HANDS.

On the other hand...he just might.

...And Far Away

Watching the internet grab hold of an idea, shaking it until death, really is a sight to behold. A current meme among Blue Jays fans which continuously irks is the "Move Aaron Hill to Third Base" movement. The arrival of the Langley Bard this week seems to say, to most people, that Aaron Hill should shuffle his out-making bones to the hot corner because, well, Brett Lawrie is shinier and newer.

Too many people in our Getting Blanked chats this week closed the book on Aaron Hill's time at thirdsecond base. While some part of this line of thinking could be construed as a compliment to Hill's versatility, I highly doubt it. People either undervalue the impact of defense (at your peril!) or don't appreciate how good Aaron Hill actually is with the glove.

While UZR doesn't love Aaron Hill, nearly all other defensive systems and rankings do. Over the last three years, Hill ranks 4th among second baseman in Dewan's +/-, third in revised zone rating. He ranks 5th in Fangraphs fan scouting report runs in addition to winning two Fielding Bible awards (2007 & 2009). Hill ranks well again this year in the panel vote, picking up first place consideration from the Baseball Info Solutions video scouts a.k.a. guys who watch an insane amount of video.

In other words, Aaron Hill is really good defensively at second. Why take away from that? Why add variables to the defensive mix? Alex Anthopoulos doesn't think much of that idea either:

"Right now, [Hill] is our second baseman," Anthopoulos said. "The only scenario that we would talk about moving him is if we felt that it was someone that was a significant piece."

If you'll permit me to read between the lines/graft my own opinion onto an Alex Anthopoulos quote; I take "significant piece" to mean:

1. better than Hill or
2. so bad at every other position as to present no alternative.

As this relates directly to Brett Lawrie, AA himself had a lot to say on Prime Time Sports earlier this week. Many have pointed to Brah-lie's poor footwork as proof of his positionless status, but AA insists The Player is such a strong athlete with great instincts and reflexes. Basically tailor-made for the hot corner.

But this isn't (yet) about finding a defensive home for Brett Lawrie. This is about the value of having a plus defender on your club. As it stands, Aaron Hill is one of a select few. Moving Aaron Hill is silly, because Aaron Hill is good.

While We're On the Topic

With the real Age of Field F/X Enlightenment just over the horizon, I noticed a real uptick in debate over the merits of defensive stats in the darkest, nerdiest corners of the blogoverse. Discussions of range bias skewing video-based metrics and the vagaries in batted ball information punch increasingly large holes in UZR and the like.

It is my view that these numbers, all of them, have value if used correctly. For me, UZR/150 works only when taking a large number and making it small. It is not an accurate or fair way to extrapolate tiny numbers. If you say "over the past three years, Player X has a UZR/150 of Y", you'll get my attention. If you say "in 10 games, Player Z has a UZR/150 of 40", I'm clicking away.

You won't see me use decimals in UZR numbers as that indicates a level of precision the metric simply cannot support. These numbers of course work best when paired with observed skills by your lying eyes.

It is important for all of us to use these tools fairly and honestly if we expect buy-in from the greater baseballing population. Which, I hope, is the goal. For a lot of us, advanced stats aren't anything by themselves, they simply deepen our appreciation and understanding of the game. Which leads to more informed people having more entertaining and interesting debates. Which is what brings most of us here in the first place, right?

Image courtesy of flickr user mittsuniverse via Renaissance Man Matias.

Doing Work at the Bottom of the Ballot

The announcement of the always-enjoyable Fielding Bible awards is an exciting one. As I explained at The Score (read Getting Blanked y'all!), the list of winners is pretty much foolproof. Other than a few minor quibbles, the list produced by Rob Neyer, Bill James, the Nerd Herd et al is as close to a comprehensive list of the best fielders by position as you're ever going to find.

While no Blue Jays topped their positions, quite a few picked up some stray votes here and there. We bother with the down ballot stuff here because we're down ballot people and, frankly, the bottom of the ballots are the only place the Toronto Blue Jays are getting much love these days.

The Jays infield is well represented with Lyle Overbay ranking 7th among first basemen. The Albino Warlord even garnered a first place vote from Baseball Info Solutions Scout Todd Radcliffe. Overbay's superlative arm and nose for the ball are tough to lose, the Jays pitching staff will come to learn.

Though Lyle is moving on to greener pastures¹, the middle of the diamond looks good with both Aaron Hill and Yunel Escobar ranking decently on their respective lists. Esco sits a distant fourth behind Toronto heartbreaker Troy Tulowitki but manages to appear on all but two ballots. Aaron Hill sits in 8th place though Joe Posnanski found it in his infinite wisdom to rank Hill third. Good enough for Joe Poz's bronze is good enough for me.

The most curious yet exciting stray votes were cast for none other than Travis Snider. Having written about Snider's potential in the field, this excites me a great deal. The big man is figuring it out! Smart people around the league can see Snider's skill for what it is...wait, what does that say?

Does that say Pat Burrell picked up three points as well? Is Travis Snider really thought of, by this collection of esteemed baseball minds, to be Pat Burrell's equal in the field? Sigh. Back to the drawing board.

¹ - Specifically, Green Monstered pastures. Take that to the lake, tis written in the stars.

Image courtesy of Flickr user Asmythe

That Which Cannot Be Undeleted

So I had a whole post written about the Jays defense, about how despite the team's ability to strike chumps out, take chumps deep, and change speeds on a chump; their bad habits will catch up. Especially if they commit all three of their egregious sins (walking guys, refusing to walk themselves, and playing slightly shitty defense) at the same time. Unfortunately, that post was track-padded into the internet ether (no thanks to YOU chromecacheview, you Russian piece of shit) so I'm left with this defensive tangent.

Instead, we will play the "What If?" game. Think back to Alex Gonzalez's excellent defensive play yesterday: the whole which saved the game. It saved the game briefly, but oh what could've been. Watch the video, play extra close attention to second base around the 30 second mark. Look for what you see below (screengrabbed from MLBAM.)



With the bases loaded and one out, Juan Rivera stopped between second and third base then RETURNED to second base. The throw obviously went home (to save the game) but what couldda shouldda wouldda happened next.

To recap: John BuckJose Molina prepares to throw to first to complete the double play, having recorded the force at home. Erick Aybar nearly reaches second base, Howie Kendrick takes off his batting gloves having reached first base an instant after making contact. But there is poor Juan Rivera, a mere 10 feet from from second base, 80 feet from safety. Our hero Aaron Hill unfortunately demonstrates the evils of ball watching.

A weird example for sure, but an interesting game of What If? What If Aaron Hill notices Juan Rivera standing frozen on the base path? What If his shouts and gestures catch BuckMolina's glance, even for a second? What If John BuckJose Molina sees Rivera's fat frame lumbering near the base out of the corner of his own eye?

Extremely unlikely during the tense potential last play of the game. It's entirely possible Edwin Encarnacion didn't move an inch when the ball was hit, he simply enjoyed the view just like Aaron Hill. But still, a toss to third gets Rivera by 40 feet, ends the inning, prolongs the game. O! Drama!

The Take

Poor, misguided soul Andrew wondered about the Halladay take in the comment section of the previous post. I can't even pretend to have any sort of prospect expertise/insight, but I'll offer my thoughts on the players coming this way based on the myriad reactions I've read online.

Brett Wallace

In my mind this pickup is impossible to dislike. As Keith Law said, he hits all pitches in all zones with no quarter given to lefties. There shouldn't be any concerns about his quote unquote bad body since it's nearly 2010. Guys that can hit are always important and will always have a home, no matter how bootylicious they might be. I doubt there's any question as to his ability to put up numbers at the big league level.

Defensively, I'm of two minds. Word is Wallace has steady hands, a strong arm and no range at third. Most people already have him playing first base. However, I'm not ready to close the book on him at the hot corner. If he develops into a "makes all the plays you expect" kind of guy, is that the worst thing in the world? Alex Gonzales isn't the rangiest shortstop around, but is it too much to hope for a plus shortstop to help take the burden off a league-average third baseman? Justin Jackson has decent Total Zone numbers in the minors, but will his bat allow him to rise to the big league level? (Answer: yes.)

The downside, and largest contributor to Wallace becoming the Jays shortstop third baseman of the future, is this. Put another way:

• Brett Cecil - Throws Left
  
• Marc Rzepczynski - Throws Left
  
• Ricky Romero - Throws Left
  
• Brad Mills - Throws Left
  
• Brian Tallet - Throws Left
  
• David Purcey - Throws Left

More left-handed pitching means more right handed batters faced. More righties = more importance of quality third base defense.

If the Jays move Adam Lind to first convert or anyone other than Wallace for 2011; they stand to have weak corner defense countered but excellence up the middle. While a decent idea, I'm not sure you can get away with two mediocre or less-than-rangy guys on the RC turf. One sure. Two, I dunno.

Kyle Drabek

Tommy John? A mere formality in this day and age. Temperament issues? He's a pitcher, who cares? Dave Stieb was the biggest prick in town, but dude was great. Stuff? Unless I read with much less prejudice in the winter than the summer, I think Drabek's stock rose as summer turned to autumn. People are projecting him as close to a top of the rotation kind of guy. Awesome! Two good pitches with a third on the way? A good Arnsberging will coach that third pitch up to speed two pitches are plenty!!!

There is a lot to like about Drabek. Pedigree (less than meaningless!), ground balls, home run suppression, control. All things you'd like to see from a 22 year old. Will he make the big club next year? I doubt it. I'm sure AA is a Super Two hawk and the earliest we'll see Drabek is September 2010.

Travis D'Arnaud

Catcher Of The Future! Who knows? Throw some chicken blood on the floor, smear in the some tea leaves. The COTF's RC+ will be revealed!

Like all COTF, he can hit but has shitty footwork and suspect mechanics. Alex Anthopoulos buys his first ticket in the COTF lottery.

Other Stuff

With this week consumed by Harry LeRoy Halladay, I put off a pretty cool post. Please check back Monday for some exclusive goodness here at Ghostrunner on First. I swear it will be worth it. You may look at The Manager in a whole new light.

Image courtesy of some Korean Website Friction Entertainment. Lube's on me.

In The Weeds

One thing you've certainly noticed if you read Ghostrunner on First at all this season is a certain affinity for Brandon League. I love him because he's unique and because he's awesome. Despite nearly giving up on League in August, by season's end I was convinced of his ability and feel he's ready to make The Leap. All signs point to a monster 2010 for League, for a million different reasons.

I've already drawn attention to his curiously low FIP and superbly low xFIP (lower than Zack fucking Greinke!) and his impressive uptick in strikeouts and strikeout ratio.

Another thing that could work in League's favor? His complete inability to get a call. Jeremy Greenhouse did some awesome work yesterday on Baseball Analysts looking at who "controls the zone" and which players face a larger strike zone. Who was right there at the bottom, with a whopping 35 balls that "should've" been strikes called against him? Why our Brandon League of course! It's an extension of the fine work done by our very own Jon Hale suggesting control pitchers get better calls than power guys. What if League gets even half his missed pitches called strikes? Brandon League is blowing up!

On Wells

So AA chooses to believe his eyes over the various cloak & dagger defensive metrics when it comes to Vernon Wells's defense. I get it, they're flawed. Many of the flaws come out when the reps get high enough (as Bastian points out - he's averaged -11 UZR over the past three seasons) but that's fine, they aren't the be-all or the end-all. What does AA see, other than a massive inherited contract?

My eyes see a guy that doesn't take terrific routes, for whatever reason. I see a guy chasing the ball rather than running to the spot. I made a similar comment on a DJF post in July, using this video as an example. Wells makes the catch there, but the last second hard right turn is troubling.

Does Franklin Gutierrez use evasive maneuvers at the last second? An extreme example, but no. He runs to the spot, stands around, waits, chats to Ichiro about the latest in tentacle rape porn, then makes the play. Outfielders typically begin declining after they hit 30, so we can't expect Wells to improve. I think he would make a fine right fielder, mostly because I don't have any thing else left to believe.

Portents of Defensive Doom

Projections are a weird beast. The grinding mathematical efficiency of the whole thing leaves a bad taste in many people's mouths. The wide range of offensive projections run the gamut and give hope to those searching for it, provided they search long enough. Jeff Zimmerman of Beyond the Box Score uses age regression and past performance (explained here) to project UZR for every player with at least 63 games played at a given position over the past 4 years. Guess what? It doesn't look good for our Blue Jays.

I've created three groups: Current Blue Jays, free agent Blue Jays, and potential Blue Jays as targeted by myself or the greater rumour mill.

Name	Position	Projected UZR	Number of Games at Position in Last 4 Years	Age on Opening Day
Adam Lind	LF	-2.0	208	26
Travis Snider	LF	-0.7	69	22
Vernon Wells	CF	-8.0	553	32
Aaron Hill	2B	1.9	483	28
	SS	-3.9	63	28
Lyle Overbay	1B	-0.3	550	33
Edwin Encarnacion	3B	-9.0	476	27
Jose Bautista	CF	-4.2	68	29
	RF	0.7	77	29
	3B	-5.7	284	29
Joe Inglett	2B	-2.3	122	29
Marco Scutaro	SS	-0.3	311	34
	3B	-0.5	89	34
	2B	-0.6	102	35
John McDonald	SS	1.4	290	35
Rocco Baldelli	CF	1.7	119	28
Brandon Phillips	2B	6.2	589	28
Carlos Gonzalez	CF	1.0	112	24
	LF	0.4	47	24
Dexter Fowler	CF	-7.6	136	24
Matt Murton	LF	0.8	190	28
Felipe Lopez	SS	-8.7	279	29
Adrian Beltre	3B	7.6	552	31
Brett Gardner	CF	3.0	121	26

Before we get into a big fight, let's get this out of the way.

• No, UZR is not perfect. What it does, especially with 3 years of data, is paint a pretty good picture of a player in the field.
  
• No, projections aren't perfect either. While the varieties of offensive or pitching projections swing wildly, I think defense is the type of thing that can project well. For most of these dudes, this is who they are.
  
• A lot of these guys, especially the young guys are close to average. This is because, well, that's how it gets to be the average. Young players require more games to truly show how crappy they can be, so they tend to get the benefit of the doubt.

Safe to say this bad defensive team isn't about to get much better. Some of these stiff corncobs will benefit from a healthy slathering of Butterfield, but let's not expect too much. EE displayed a strong arm at third base, but he is who he is. If anything, his rocket arm is detrimental to his chances of improvement as a fielder (his strong arm overcame other deficiencies, allowing bad habits to creep in at an early age.)

Had Jose Bautista done ANYTHING at the plate in the parts of 2009 that "mattered", I'd be tempted to give him the everyday rightfielder's job in 2009 2010. But he didn't so fuck him. Would a guy like Matt Murton be much better or worse? Probably not, but he'd be cheaper. Is he a non-tender candidate? Likely. The arbitration system is broken and I don't expect the Jays to Do The Right Thing by their journeyman.

As for the "targets", not much to choose from there. Rocco's best days in the field are behind him, Matt Murton is pretty much average all around. Brandon Philips is a fine second baseman but the Jays already have one of those. The numbers suggest both men are good where they are. Former Jay Felipe Lopez had an outstanding year with the bat though his defense is pretty much awful. Two of the young outfielders that would come to town at a terrible, terrible price are speedy glovemen with limited offensive upside (Gardner & Grand Theft Auto) while Fowler is a toolsy stud that is charitably described as raw (read: black dude!) with great potential.

Additionally, the Jays added a couple quad-A nawspects this month. Either of these guys could become another Marco Scutaro or Johnny Mac. Mike McCoy played all over the diamond with the bulk of his time coming at short. His defense was worth +7 runs according to TotalZone. He also pitched an inning in 2009, something I haven't seen a Blue Jays position player do in a long, long time. Jarrett Hoffpauir plays second base almost exclusively and doesn't appear to do it particularly well. So we can pretty much count him out.

I'm of two minds when it comes to shoring up the Jays potential defense. It would be foolish to overemphasize the impact of marginally better fielders. The difference between a good fielder and an average one (or an average fielder and a bad one) is rather slight. A large percentage of plays made are pretty routine, whomever you choose to send out there at the big league level has a pretty good shot of making a clean play on it.

That said, we must all recognize one thing: if Roy Halladay goes, so go a whole lot of strikeouts and a whole lot of groundballs. If Shaun Marcum is to step in and reclaim his place in the rotation, many flyballs come with him. Dustin McGowan has a GB/FB above 1, but he certainly puts his share of runners on base. Cecil, Romero, Rzepczynski, Purcey, Janssen&mdash none of them are as efficient as HALF of Roy Halladay. Defense will matter for this club now and in the future, to support the burgeoning pitching staff and give a team in need of every possible break slight edge.

Iron Age

It is only October 20th and yet the annual "offseason straw-grasp" is already in full swing in the blogosphere. New GM Alex Anthopolous's recent comments regarding the teams non-specific interest in resigning Marco Scutaro caused a few waves. Some considered them a waste of time, others thought they were a clear indication of AA's intent to to retain Scutaro.

I've said all along that I'm against resigning Scutaro. He did a terrific job; first as a utility guy then as the everyday shortstop. That J.P. acquired him for a song and paid him very little (just over $1.5 mil for 2009, less than Johnny Mac!) is very much icing on the cake. Scutaro did well to turn himself into a good leadoff man and an excellent fielding shortsto///////RECORD SCRATCH!!!!!!!!

Remember how we all raved over Scutaro's defense this year, how impressive he both looked and rated in the various metrics? A funny thing happened on the way to a silk glove: Marco Scutaro ran out of gas. Not only did Scutaro's offence go south as the season wore on, his defense did the very same.

Consider this post I wrote on August 5th. The content of the post doesn't look at Macro Scutaro's defensive runs: 16. Meaning his UZR on August 5th was 16.0 runs. Looking at his final season numbers we see a frightening total: 0.3 Over the final two months (6 weeks before his injury) Marco Scutaro played 16 runs below average.

Brian Joseph of Baseball Digest Daily compiled all defensive numbers for shortstops around the same time in August for his excellent Digging in the Dirt series. At that time Scutaro sported a UZR/150 of 7.0 (finished 0.1), a RZR of .825 (finished .799) with 48 out of zone plays (finished with 61) and so on and so forth.

I don't point this out to disparage Scutaro, more than anything I was shocked to see how far his defensive numbers fell. I also recognized this numbers aren't infallible, but they do represent a decline. A significant one, especially as it relates to signing an aging player to a multi-year contract. As each year passes, Scutaro will break down earlier and earlier. There is no guarantee he will ever rediscover his range or his legs as the innings mount.

One option, one I wouldn't oppose, is making Scutaro the everyday third baseman. Though his range declined, Scutaro remained incredibly sure-handed, making few errors on the balls he fielded (other than a few in high leverage situations) and fewer throwing errors. Offensively his skills are decidedly "old player" meaning Cito could slot him in at the top of the order and expect pretty similar production (just not EVERY day Cito, give the man a rest.

Would Scutaro agree to be the third baseman if other offers to play short every day exist? I don't know, though the lure of natural grass is just about enough to get anyone out of town. Hopefully the Jays recognize how "profit" they've already made off Scutaro and don't flush it all down the toilet on an aging player during his decline phase.

I Knew I Hated Jose Bautista for a Reason

The good men at Bluebird Banter are bringing us the goods more often this spring than a coke dealer to a strip club. After single-handedly trying to submarine Ricky Romaro's start yesterday, the BB boys clearly demonstrate with their around-the-diamond look at the Jays defense that Jose Bautista is good for nothing. Everywhere he plays. Corner infield? Sucks. Left field? Sieve-ish. I don't even want to think about Jose bumbling around at short stop. Speaking of SS, if Scutaro comes near his across-the-board excellent 2008, I'll be shocked. Shocked I say.

Speaking of defense, banned in Canada J from 3:10 to Joba uses our Toronto Blue Jays as a shining beacon of FIP and run prevention, an example he hopes his Jankees follow. I think he's on to something, the Yankees offense won't be much better in 2009, but even without the initialed wonders their rotation couldn't be worse. Only two starters made 25 starts? How did we finish behind them again? My shame grows.

Mop Up Duty hosted something of a blogger round table with an eye towards 2009 and beyond. There are even some of my answers peppered in there, do check it out. Good to see The Blue Jay Hunter join me on the J.J. Hardy train.

Team Building 1999

Business hours are over, bay-beeehh-heyyyy

I know the corpse is still warm, and I understand the number of available, competent bodies that are both willing AND able bodies was pretty low. But any team that knows it has pitching problems; knows that getting outs is going to be more difficult than creating runs must put a little bit of thought into fielding a better defensive club.

Sure, this is a short tournament in which anything can happen. But the little Italian club that could put the value of defensive on display. No team that trots Matt Stairs out in right field and Jason Bay out in center has defense in mind. The alternatives might have been few, but did Matt Stairs's bat really bring that much to the table?

The whole "we'll out slug them and win every game 11-10" went out in, oh, 1999 didn't it? One need only look at the 2006 US squad in this very tournament to realize building a "team" is paramount to lining sluggers from post to post. This year's edition of Team America featured Shane Victorino in right and Curtis Granderson in center at the close of the opening game. Sluggers they are not, but (all together now) speed doesn't slump. Hell, consider the lengths "dream teams" like USA Basketball and Hockey Canada have gone to ensure a balanced team (hello Tyson Chandler, Bruce Bowen, and Chris fucking Draper.)

Obviously I'm taking this a little far. Most of tonight's hits fell into holes that no fielder could close up. Never the less, the contrast between the two teams was too great to go unnoticed. Second guessing Ernie Whitt is easy because he looks go desperately overmatched, hopefully Baseball Canada will take a more complete approach to building their team next time rather than filling the roster with enough recognizable names to facilitate ticket sales. The sea of blue seats told me that didn't work long before the scoreboard did.

Weekend Buncheso'stuff

It's the weekend, it's almost Christmas; my least favorite time of year. At its heart, Christmas is a time to appreciate the under-appreciated, like hotter than you think Sinead O'Conner. An everlasting Irish agitator, she wrote some songs (no joke: nothing compares 2 U is a track. There's a lot there), is/was political defiantly, refused to perform on the same show as Andrew Dice Clay, tore up a picture of the Pope, and pissed people off at every turn. Here's to you Sinead, my pants are the real enemy.

Back to Baseball

The other day I wrote a post at Walkoff Walk about fielding being the new darling of Moneyball - underpriced and undervalued. The Mariners were my example of a team that shored up their defense at low cost. Turns out they're taking this whole run prevention thing seriously and hired the right manager. New boss Don Wakamatsu noticed poor results for groundball machine Roy Corcoran and wants to fix it (via U.S.S Mariner):

I look at Corcoran, and opposing hitters averaged .283 against him," Wakamatsu said. "But he had a four-to-one ratio of ground balls (to fly balls). Did they find every hole?

"The fact is that we have to catch more ground balls. I want to bring these kinds of statistics to the coaches and players. It's a way to get better. Maybe it just means we need to shade the middle more, or maybe we need to focus more on what specific hitters do against each of our specific pitchers.

Impressive talk from a manager, not the kind of thing I'd expect to hear out of Cito's mouth. Could it be that JP realized this years ago, thus assembling one of the best defensive squads in baseball? Nah, we wouldn't want to give him that kind of credit.

Speaking of defense, Raul Ibanez's comments regarding defensive stats are certainly interesting, if a little misguided. He offers the "I'm hitting it RIGHT AT people" rebuttal to his poor showing in each and every defensive metric. Sorry Raul, you come off intelligent and informed here, but slightly defensive. Ar Ar.

Weekend Links to Kill Some Time

• My boy David Chalk is counting down the 25 greatest Rays of all time. Rocco ranked 6th, which even I can't argue with. He also re-imagined my Divinity of Rocco Baldelli with a Christmas theme. He's much better with Photoshop than I am with Paint.
  
• I'm trying to put the Ghostrunner on First facebook page to some use. I wrote something completely unrelated to baseball and put it up. Become a friend and check it out!
  
• Noted badass Dock Ellis died this week. He had cirrhosis of the liver, pitched a no-hitter on acid and called Vida Blue his soul-brother. It's a shame that a man like him is doubly rare in today's game: an honest and politically engaged athlete that also happens to be a black pitcher. We need more of both.
  
• The Southpaw is moving on up and joined the MVN network. Good for them. Check out their fancy new space. Congrats to all those fine gentlemen.

FIPing Ain't Easy

Oh goodness me, the Yankees have spent so much money this off season, those of us that spend our winters in a Turkish coal mine might as well forgo returning to the AL East to compete with this juggernaut. I mean look at this rotation (or SUPER ROTATION, as Fangraphs describes it.) Who could possibly compete with that? Well for starters, the Yankees -as currently constructed- don't have the defensive team to support their seemingly robust pitching.

In 2008, the Yankees were a bad defensive team. The finished the year with a stellar -30 defensive plus/minus. A.J. Burnett is a lot of things, but a control pitcher is not one of them. He is going to put runners on, and no outfield combination of Johnny Damon (in 2008 he sported a -5.6 UZR in 30 games in center but a respectable 8.6 in left), Hideki Matsui (-15.5 UZR/150 for his career), Xavier Nady (0.5 UZR/150 games for his career in RF), and Melky Cabrera (-6.1 UZR/150 games for his career in the outfield) is going to help matters.

Losing the awful Abreu helps make them less bad, but they really aren't replacing him with much. They will miss his strong arm though, as only Melky Cabrera is above league average in this respect. You might ask; what about Nick Swisher? And I heard they're going to acquire Mike Cameron to shore up the outfield, you might say. Mike Cameron can still go and get it, responding with a fine 2008 after being swallowed whole by Petco Park in 2007. Nick Swisher is a lot of things and competent outfielder isn't really one of them. He can play all over the diamond, but only in right field does he do more good than harm. He'll most likely play first base for this team, heading up a wholly uninspiring collection of infield glovemen.

Piling on Jeter is tired and boring, and he showed a tremendous improvement from 2007 to 2008, according to his UZR. Sadly, he "improved" to a -0.4 UZR, so let's not start etching another Gold Glove quite yet. Robinson Cano's universally terrible 2008 saw him go from a +17 in 2007 to a -16 in 2008. Which is the real Cano? Considering 2007 has been his only season with a positive UZR, I'm going to go ahead and assume that he sucks. Alex Rodriquez offers league-average defense and far below average taste in women.

What does this mean for the Yankee hurlers? Only Chein Ming Wang is a true groundball artist counting on that less than airtight infield. Joba, AJ, and CC are all around 3/2 GB to FB. Last I heard, they aren't making the new Yankee Stadium any smaller, so they will suffer some slights at the hands of their bumbling outfield. While it would be ridiculous to suggest they haven't improved their team and their chances of returning to the post season, the team they've built around their world-beating rotation isn't helping the cause.

Fielding Bible as Worthless as Regular Bible

The Fielding Bible awards were announced today, and despite the Blue Jays being one of the best defensive teams in baseball, they were conspicuously absent from the list of winners. It's tough to argue most names on the list, but I'll place my homer blinders on and do it gladly.

Adrian Beltre and his +32 plus/minus was the third base winner, edging out Evan Longoria(!) according to Geoff Baker. Beltre's RZR wasn't nearly as good as local hero Scott Rolen, but he made an astounding 30 out of zone plays more than Rolen. Watching as many Mariners' games as I did, I observed Beltre charging weak ground balls and bunts nearly as well as Mt. Rolen, which is high praise as far as I'm concerned. Beltre was charged with 15 "errors", 5 throwing versus 10 fielding, similar to Rolen's 2 and 9 split. Numbers like that make sense for rangey guys, the type that will make an error on a ground ball most won't get to, but rarely throw the ball away.

In other words, it is hard to beef with Beltre. Longoria, however, I will contest. In almost identical innings to Rolen, Longroria got to fewer out of zone balls and made plays in his zone at a slightly lesser rate. Longroria started far more double plays, which I suspect is out of a third basemen's hands. Evan also made 4 more throwing errors, as I observed at 9:15 during Game 7 of the ALCS, likely attempting to throw across his body off one leg. A difficult play that perhaps 5 year veteran Evan Longoria chooses to eat rather than heave. The kid can play, but let's not play his rusty trombone quite yet.

The award for right field went to Ricky Guiterriez of the Cleveland Indians. Guiterriez displayed incredible range this season, getting to more out of zone balls than Alex Rios in fewer innings, all while making nearly 96% of the plays in his zone. Everybody loves Alex Rios, he of the (to paraphrase Jonathon Hale) incredibly long strides (range) to trump his bootybacked routes. One huge advantage for Rios is his arm. Over his career, Guiterriez has never shown to have anything but an average outfield arm, while Rios sports a rocketship powered by superlatives. Franky's arm has rated below league average at holding runners in place and creating outs on the basepaths. Were I to wager, I would assume Alex Rios slept with at least Bill James's daughters and wife. Minimum wife.



Lyle Overbay's long under-appreciated defense continues to lack appreciation and pigment. Overbay had another excellent year defensively, but it still didn't compare to Albert Pujols. Pujols is a freak of nature with the work ethic of a desperate Cape Bretoner, yearning to be free. Most fielding metrics have a hard time with first base and the ambiguity of infield throws in the dirt, and I haven't seen enough of Pujols defensively to make a fair assessment beyond the advantage he has in most basic statistical categories. I will say Albert deserved the award out of fear of him crushing my skull in anger.

Most of the selections make all sorts of sense, though Chutely showed during the World Series that he's all man. Bill James and his apostles fine work is appreciated by novices like me, despite my attempts to split the finest hairs. Luxurious hairs that smell of sweet talking points and numerical intrigue.