Fire When Ready (Which is Always)

Of all the wacky/injury-based batting order machinations, Yunel Escobar leadoff delights me to no end. I liked the way Escobar draws the odd walk and he seems to be closer to the 3/4 Win stud the Jays thought they were stealing from the Braves.

One nagging legacy of my time in the baseball dark ages is my personal unease when I see somebody swing at the first pitch. Mostly because I'm become so pro-walk (probably to a fault) and it stands to reason that nobody ever walked on the first pitch.

Thankfully, I'm an idiot. Hitters rake on the first pitch and Yunel is no different. His OPS rises high above 1.000 on first pitches this year and he has 9 first pitch home runs in his career.

The concern, as always, is pitchers taking advantage of this aggression and throwing him junk out of the zone in an attempt to get way ahead. Let's take a look to see if this is the case in 2011.


Other than a few two-seamers/sinkers tailing in on his hands, that is pretty impressive discipline from Escobar. He certainly doesn't expand the zone in an appreciable way.

In terms of the pitch distribution, it breaks down like this:

1. Fastballs (nearly a fifty/fifty split between two and four seam with a few cutters thrown in)
2. Curveballs
3. Sliders
4. Changeups

The even better news is Escobar takes the first pitch nearly 60% percent of the time. Again, refusing to expand the zone and waiting for a good pitch to hit.

Of his 9 first pitch-hits, he has three on changeups, three on fastballs, and one each on the slider and the curve.

What does this mean? I'm okay with Escobar swinging away on the first pitch. He is a smart enough hitter to wait for a good pitch to whack and whack it he does. If only I could say the same about half the other Punch & Judy's currently populating the lineup.

Pitch f/x data courtesy of Joe Lefkowitz, splits courtesy of Baseball Reference. Getty Image courtesy of Daylife

Start with Sliding, Move to the Dougie

If the Cali Swag District isn't available, perhaps we can get Davey Lopes, Cali Slide District - Bureau Chief, to swing by the Jays while they're in LA to teach Yunel Escobar how to slide.

Headfirst is risky, this much I know. But am I crazy in thinking that Yunel slides headfirst into a base in an, um, unorthodox manner? Take a look at the screencaps of varying quality below.





Two separate triples (first against the Twins last Saturday, the second the ominous concussion-causing slide from Wednesday), two God-awful slides. Is he doing some sort of Bill Madlock, rolling block homage? I don't get it.

Why on Earth does he come into the base on his side? I know Cuban baseball players pride themselves on being stylish and swagging out every single moment on the field, but Yunel's headfirst sliding is awkward & ugly.

Leaving aside the strained expressions of Escobar in flight — seriously, for such a slick fielder he doesn't appear especially athletic when chugging around the bases — sometimes needs to pull him aside and teach him how to slide. Headfirst or otherwise.

Not only might he get himself killed, he just looks bad. And that isn't what I've come to expect from the swaggering wonder. Keep swinging that mean stick though, first pitch destruction!

Introducing the ISO Challenge

There is a lot of talk about the new dimensions of the Blue Jays offense. I, for one, don't really buy it. The 2010 Jays clubbed baseballs like they were baby seals, outpacing the rest of the league in ISO by nearly 10%.

Going through the offensive projections over the past few weeks then reading the Tao's post yesterday (same guy!) I came to the realization this year's edition might be different.

Consider the projections I posted for Yunel Escobar and Rajai Davis - two players who figure to get into the lineup every day (top or bottom, does it really matter?) Both Davis & Escobar figure to post isolated power numbers right around the .100 mark. When league average is around .160, these two are staring Punch and/or Judy status right in the face.

The question I pose to you is this: which, if either, of these players will crack triple digits with the ISO? Both? Neither? The falling offensive stone that is Yescobar! or the bag-swiping urban-Ichiro Rajai Davis?

Based on his track record, Escobar seems like the safe bet. The man hit 14 home runs in 2009, though his ISO still lagged behind league average. A full season in the right handed cuddle-blanket that is the Rogers Centre should help, though his ISO as a Blue Jay was a paltry .081! His obsession with bunting runners over certainly won't help his cause.

Rajai Davis doesn't bunt quite as much as Escobar but he doesn't hit for power at all. Davis is yet to post a single-season slugging percentage above league average. He has but 12 career home runs! The one thing that might save Davis and put him over the triple digit threshold? His new ballpark.

Boon at power hitters as it might be, the Rogers Centre — by virtue of its very high fences and slow turf — is a triples haven. Though the rate at which Jays hitters leg out three baggers slowed in the past two years, it is still an above average place to see the "most exciting play in baseball."

So what do you think? Will some residual Citocity rub off on these two Marys or will one drink from the chalice of manliness? Cast your vote below!

Who will post an ISO > .100 in 2011?

Doing Work at the Bottom of the Ballot

The announcement of the always-enjoyable Fielding Bible awards is an exciting one. As I explained at The Score (read Getting Blanked y'all!), the list of winners is pretty much foolproof. Other than a few minor quibbles, the list produced by Rob Neyer, Bill James, the Nerd Herd et al is as close to a comprehensive list of the best fielders by position as you're ever going to find.

While no Blue Jays topped their positions, quite a few picked up some stray votes here and there. We bother with the down ballot stuff here because we're down ballot people and, frankly, the bottom of the ballots are the only place the Toronto Blue Jays are getting much love these days.

The Jays infield is well represented with Lyle Overbay ranking 7th among first basemen. The Albino Warlord even garnered a first place vote from Baseball Info Solutions Scout Todd Radcliffe. Overbay's superlative arm and nose for the ball are tough to lose, the Jays pitching staff will come to learn.

Though Lyle is moving on to greener pastures¹, the middle of the diamond looks good with both Aaron Hill and Yunel Escobar ranking decently on their respective lists. Esco sits a distant fourth behind Toronto heartbreaker Troy Tulowitki but manages to appear on all but two ballots. Aaron Hill sits in 8th place though Joe Posnanski found it in his infinite wisdom to rank Hill third. Good enough for Joe Poz's bronze is good enough for me.

The most curious yet exciting stray votes were cast for none other than Travis Snider. Having written about Snider's potential in the field, this excites me a great deal. The big man is figuring it out! Smart people around the league can see Snider's skill for what it is...wait, what does that say?

Does that say Pat Burrell picked up three points as well? Is Travis Snider really thought of, by this collection of esteemed baseball minds, to be Pat Burrell's equal in the field? Sigh. Back to the drawing board.

¹ - Specifically, Green Monstered pastures. Take that to the lake, tis written in the stars.

Image courtesy of Flickr user Asmythe

The Intangibles of the Improbable

Seeing Tim Collins traded sucks for a lot of reasons, the ongoing success of the Toronto Blue Jays being somewhere towards the bottom. Collins strikeout numbers suggest he has a future in the major league; the brightness of which is up for debate.

Tim Collins seems to be an interesting bi-product of an strange age in baseball fandom. Of all the people ruing his departure yesterday, very few (myself included) have ever seen him pitch or know much about him. His low-level strikeout numbers make him an anomaly, his tiny stature makes him a legend. It makes us root for him and hopefully his success continues as he climbs the ladder.

Everybody was bummed when Timmy 2.0 was lumped into the trade, but let's be real: he has a limited shelf life. I envision (not project or anything tangible, I just get a sense) that he'd be amazing once through the league. Some Eichhorn in '86 type shit, but then that'd be it.

But Tim Collins represented a whole lot of fun because of his (implied) ability to overcome the odds. A little guy who didn't just scrap and hustle his way into the show, a guy that got there because he is good. Those are fun stories, and eye-popping strikeout numbers move the needle and quicken the heartbeat.

Blair Leaps in Judgement

Other than bemoaning the loss of a possible one-year wonder, I haven't offered much on the Escobar/Gonzalez trade. Let me codify my feelings by taking my favorite Jays(ish) writer to task on a couple points that stuck out in his column earlier this week.

But the Braves have added a superior defensive shortstop having a blistering offensive year and playing to guarantee an option year in 2011. Gonzalez is a shortstop with postseason experience who, if he continues his offensive pace in the National League, will help address a worrying lack of offensive production out of Chipper Jones and Brian McCann, instead of exacerbating it as Escobar did.

While it is true that Alex Gonzalez is an excellent defensive shortstop who saved more than his share of outs, I wouldn't say in any way he's superior to Yunel Escobar. Superior compared to average, but Escobar is a defensive stud. Both UZR (4 runs saved this year, 4.4/150 for his career) and Dewan's +/- (a whopping 21 this year, +14 average over the last three seasons) favor the newest Blue Jay.

To me this is an example of contorting the truth to solidify your point. Yup, Alex is great in the field, but I defy you to find me anybody who thinks he's better than Esco. I don't believe you can.

The "if he continues his offensive production" line is a tricky one. Does anyone believe he will? Considering the way balls fly out to left in Toronto and die in the thick, hateful air in Atlanta, expecting Gonzo to continue mashing dingers and little else is wishful at best.

It goes on to be a classic "these three months are everything/these three months are nothing." Those who wish to paint the Jays as winners point to the track records over time, others look at the recent results and say "landslide." The truth is in the middle, if it exists at all. Like the Rolen/Glaus swap, crazy shit can happen and the pieces involved are three dimensional. Hopefully some of these moving parts fall into place in Toronto for once.

Image courtesy of Robin Thom's Flickrstream