Introducing the ISO Challenge

There is a lot of talk about the new dimensions of the Blue Jays offense. I, for one, don't really buy it. The 2010 Jays clubbed baseballs like they were baby seals, outpacing the rest of the league in ISO by nearly 10%.

Going through the offensive projections over the past few weeks then reading the Tao's post yesterday (same guy!) I came to the realization this year's edition might be different.

Consider the projections I posted for Yunel Escobar and Rajai Davis - two players who figure to get into the lineup every day (top or bottom, does it really matter?) Both Davis & Escobar figure to post isolated power numbers right around the .100 mark. When league average is around .160, these two are staring Punch and/or Judy status right in the face.

The question I pose to you is this: which, if either, of these players will crack triple digits with the ISO? Both? Neither? The falling offensive stone that is Yescobar! or the bag-swiping urban-Ichiro Rajai Davis?

Based on his track record, Escobar seems like the safe bet. The man hit 14 home runs in 2009, though his ISO still lagged behind league average. A full season in the right handed cuddle-blanket that is the Rogers Centre should help, though his ISO as a Blue Jay was a paltry .081! His obsession with bunting runners over certainly won't help his cause.

Rajai Davis doesn't bunt quite as much as Escobar but he doesn't hit for power at all. Davis is yet to post a single-season slugging percentage above league average. He has but 12 career home runs! The one thing that might save Davis and put him over the triple digit threshold? His new ballpark.

Boon at power hitters as it might be, the Rogers Centre — by virtue of its very high fences and slow turf — is a triples haven. Though the rate at which Jays hitters leg out three baggers slowed in the past two years, it is still an above average place to see the "most exciting play in baseball."

So what do you think? Will some residual Citocity rub off on these two Marys or will one drink from the chalice of manliness? Cast your vote below!

Who will post an ISO > .100 in 2011?

Addressing Speed, Quickly

Considering all the smart takes already filling the Google Readers of the Blue Jays blogosphere, there isn't much insight I can add to the Rajai Davis acquisition. That hasn't stopped me from chiming in before, and it surely won't stop me this time.

There isn't a lot of outrage over giving up two right handed relievers for a fourth outfielder/pinch runner/defensive replacement at worst, starting outfielder at worst. Many are quick to note speed as something sorely lacking from the Jays offensive punch since, oh, forever.

As one of the loudest "you can't steal first" advocates, I'm often quick to denigrate the value of a thief like Davis. Thankfully, the good people at the Red Sox Beacon are much smarter than I and put a useful modern stat - wRC+ or weighted runs created plus - to show value in baserunning. Patrick Sullivan of RSB compared wRC+ to OPS+ to show what a difference speed can make when evaluating players. While OPS+ simply takes on base, smashes it into slugging then adjusts for park; wRC+ uses wOBA (already a superior metric) while incorporating base running.

While their example of Carl Crawford is more extreme (because Crawford is extremely good) a quick look at most Blue Jays shows little variance. Iron Lyle Overbay matches his wRC+ to his OPS+ because by not trying anything on the bases, he doesn't add nor take away. Might this impact the way we view young Rajai?

Year	OPS+	wRC+
2007	91	105
2008	66	77
2008	107	120
2010	90	103

Once you factor in baserunning, Davis' career year in 2009 looks less like Lyle Overbay circa 2010 (slightly above league average, meh) and a lot more like Scott Rolen circa 2009 (20% above my swooning heart).

This not-so simple tool demonstrates that, yes, speed does have value. The ability to steal bases efficiently does rate with the cold-hearted Nerd Herd. I don't mean to suggest that Davis should play every day. He's as much a right fielder as Fred Lewis, so we should stop the "he can play all three positions!" talk.

If this move hints at bigger plays to come, cool. If not, Davis is still a player able to contribute to the greater Blue Jays good with a skill set quite uncommon in that dressing room.

Image courtesy of Vitascope and excellent idea courtesy of Red Sox Beacon. Numbers courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.