A Growing Menace

Menace. When Brett Lawrie stands at the plate, waving his bat with exteme prejudice, I can only think about the word menace. He is a menacing figure, with his cartoon traps and barely-simmering intensity. I fear for pitchers, standing but 60 feet away from a quaking mass of broed up energy.

He is also a menace because that level of energy — when wholly expelled after an orgiastic grand slam — is going to get someone killed. Be it an errant high five-cum-Ric Flair knife-edge chop to the neck or a pointed fastball between the numbers from a jilted pitcher, somebody is coming away bruised. Consider it collateral damage.

Brett Lawrie is not alone in his menacing ways. The swagger, youth, and confidence that permeates this team belies its fourth place standing. This collection of cast-offs and unwanted middle children has a massive chip on its collective shoulder - nobody believed in them individually and now, facing long odds even as they stockpile talent, nobody believes in them collectively.

Which is foolish for the nobodys. Fools will count this team out, both now and in the future. Not because of the attitude or the swagger but because of the talent.

Good God Damn, there is a lot of talent. Even if the talent can't look eye to eye with the competition today, there are still a whole lot of age 27 seasons waiting to happen in that clubhouse.

Failing that, the league is lousy with potential problem children to absorb into the fiery womb. There are plenty of tarnished dollar bills remaining for Gordious Dougolous to acquire for two shiny quarters.

There is promise and there is hope. There is entertainment and there is pride in the offing. Get in on the ground floor while you still can. Tell a friend. Act like you knew.

Image of Edwin Encarnacion's punctured lung by Fred Thornhill courtesy of Reuters via Daylife Fred Thornhill! Gordie Dougie life!

Covetous Eyes

As you may have heard, the Los Angeles Angels of Fiduciary Restraint called up one of the finest prospects in baseball, Mike Trout. Mike Trout is an outfielder and exemplary human being. He is also younger than this.

With Vernon Wells in LOLeft and Torii Hunter in right, the Angels have lots of money tied up in two outfielders in dire need of plate appearances to justify their contracts. Trout must play because calling up a 19-year-old from Double-A only to sit him on the bench too ludicrous for even the Angels to consider.

As such, the not great but certainly not awful Peter Bourjos is just sort of...hanging out. Perhaps there is a team — a team without a proper center fielder on the immediate horizon ‐ who might dash in and steal him away. Can you think of a such a team?

Bourjos might be proto-Anthony Gose. Is he an improvement over Rajai Davis? I think so. A better fielder and, this year, better hitter. Under team control for another decade or so, he won't come cheap.

Just a thought. Bourjos is crazy exciting and fun to watch. If Tony Reagins even takes AA's call, it could be a nice preview of the player Anthony Gose may one day become.

Image courtesy of Halo Hangout.

Addressing Speed, Quickly

Considering all the smart takes already filling the Google Readers of the Blue Jays blogosphere, there isn't much insight I can add to the Rajai Davis acquisition. That hasn't stopped me from chiming in before, and it surely won't stop me this time.

There isn't a lot of outrage over giving up two right handed relievers for a fourth outfielder/pinch runner/defensive replacement at worst, starting outfielder at worst. Many are quick to note speed as something sorely lacking from the Jays offensive punch since, oh, forever.

As one of the loudest "you can't steal first" advocates, I'm often quick to denigrate the value of a thief like Davis. Thankfully, the good people at the Red Sox Beacon are much smarter than I and put a useful modern stat - wRC+ or weighted runs created plus - to show value in baserunning. Patrick Sullivan of RSB compared wRC+ to OPS+ to show what a difference speed can make when evaluating players. While OPS+ simply takes on base, smashes it into slugging then adjusts for park; wRC+ uses wOBA (already a superior metric) while incorporating base running.

While their example of Carl Crawford is more extreme (because Crawford is extremely good) a quick look at most Blue Jays shows little variance. Iron Lyle Overbay matches his wRC+ to his OPS+ because by not trying anything on the bases, he doesn't add nor take away. Might this impact the way we view young Rajai?

Year	OPS+	wRC+
2007	91	105
2008	66	77
2008	107	120
2010	90	103

Once you factor in baserunning, Davis' career year in 2009 looks less like Lyle Overbay circa 2010 (slightly above league average, meh) and a lot more like Scott Rolen circa 2009 (20% above my swooning heart).

This not-so simple tool demonstrates that, yes, speed does have value. The ability to steal bases efficiently does rate with the cold-hearted Nerd Herd. I don't mean to suggest that Davis should play every day. He's as much a right fielder as Fred Lewis, so we should stop the "he can play all three positions!" talk.

If this move hints at bigger plays to come, cool. If not, Davis is still a player able to contribute to the greater Blue Jays good with a skill set quite uncommon in that dressing room.

Image courtesy of Vitascope and excellent idea courtesy of Red Sox Beacon. Numbers courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.