Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Scott Downs Joins the Chain Gang

During the late innings of last night's tilt with the Red Sox, Scott Downs pitched about as well as you can ask. He faced four hitters; striking out one and inducing three ground balls from the others. One man reached on an error but was quickly erased via a double play. Scott Downs is really, really good at his job - this much we know.

During my liveblog of the game, the question of re-signing Downs arose. We pondered what type of contract he might be offered (I prefer to think of Scott Downs as a gentleman of modest means. He wouldn't demand a big deal, he'd simply accept one of the many offers for his services.) Considering that, insanely, Brandon Lyon got a 3 year, $15 million dollar deal to not close for the worst team in baseball last winter, just about anything is in play. Lyon's pitched well enough this season (credit his wacky low HR rate), though not as well as Downs. How valuable does that make Downs? To the right team in the right (read: wrong) situation: very valuable. To the 2011 Blue Jays? Not so much.

The topic of reliever value is much debated around the nerdier end of the internet and known as bullpen chaining. I'll attempt to nutshell it: if you lose a reliever, his replacement doesn't come "off the street" in the form of a true replacement player.

If Kevin Gregg does down with an injury, you don't call up a Brad Mills or a Marc Rzepcynzki to be the closer, you call up Rommie Lewis or (God willing) Jeremy Accardo. When you call up that bullpen arm, they don't slot directly into the closer's role. Everybody just moves up the chain into a slightly higher leveraged role and you make due until the big man returns.

As such, unless the team finds itself requiring the extra boost a sure-thing stopper provides and is willing to pay for it, you have to let Scott Downs walk at the end of this season. The team is grooming David Purcey for a role similar to Downs' with a few other internal options and scrap heap finds lurking in the shadows. Even if a guy like Purcey comes in and doesn't pitch as well, the greater impact on the success of the season is minimal.

He's been a great Blue Jay for 5 years, but asking him leave big bags of money on the table is foolish and unlikely. He's 34 years old and this is his last deal. He might hang around for some Orosco years as he approaches 40, but his time in Toronto is nearly up.

Image courtesy of Reuters via Daylife

20 comments:

  1. Sad. This team has prided itself on its bullpen. I don't think it's such a sure bet that AA will let him walk. If he does, hopefully Accardo does get another shake. Putting up a decent season down in Vegas.

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  2. This team prides itself on building a bullpen from scraps. Paying market value for a reliever isn't a smart move, hoarding draft picks is.

    Accardo? I'm not sure. I'd much rather see Josh Roenicke get more chances.

    Drew

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  3. I wonder if teams will be even less willing to pay the first round pick price on type As with all the hype around this "loaded" draft. Potentially, as a strategic move, they could be less willing to take type Bs also.

    like you said, brandon lyon's contract means all is possible.

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  4. I'm on the fence on this one. If the Jays are contending possibly as early as next year and '12 and '13, do you keep a guy like Downs for then? Just asking cuz I don't have an answer.

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  5. I'll answer that question with a question: Do you think 36 & 37 year old Scott Downs will pitch to whatever contract he signs? Will he do the job better than a guy they can sign for much, much less?

    Drew

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  6. Question: the only way the Blue Jays get 2 draft picks is if Downs retains his Type A status and the Jays offer arbitration but Downs turns it down, right?

    Unless Downs is money-hungry and wants to test free agency, I think he accepts arb and there go the picks.

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  7. But I am ok with that. That's why it wasn't a must to deal him at the deadline.

    If he accepts arb, we get him for another year of Type A and offer him arb again next year. If he turns it down, someone is sure to sign him and we get picks. Win-Win.

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  8. Can I ask a question: why does looking for the best offer make him "money-hungry?"

    The amount of money relative to what you or I make doesn't matter. Would you turn down a 60% pay increase to work for a different company? Would doing so make you money-hungry?

    He earned the right to become a free agent and seek the best offer for his services. Doing so doesn't make him money-hungry, it makes him a human being.

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  9. Downs signed his expiring 3-year/$10 million deal after his then career best year in 2007 with no fuss at all. I don't think he's a hard re-sign; it's entirely possible he's one of those yanquis a la Darrin Fletcher who actually prefers playing in Canada and would consider a home town discount.

    Given that the "opt for picks" strategy failed pretty badly when the Yankees signed AJ Burnett, I'd be inclined to hang on to him if the price is right.

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  10. I'm with Drew.

    No way Downs declines arb - why would he accept a one-year arb deal when this is probably his last real shot to snag a lucrative multi-year deal? He'll never be in a better position to cash in.

    And much as I like Downs (quite a lot, actually)...there's also no way I'd join the bidding to dole out a 3 year deal.

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  11. Drew, maybe money-hungry wasn't the correct phrase to choose. I just get jealous when Blue Jays see some success with the team, then sign elsewhere (ex. Burnett).

    Just like you said ... eatin' ain't cheatin', right?

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  12. With Downs, declining arbitration is a no-brainer. It's not just that he could make slightly more money as a FA, it's job security -- accepting arbitration will only get him a one-year deal, but he can sign for a lot longer than that as a free agent. That protects him from having to worry about injury, a statistical off-year, and having to move his family multiple times.

    He's not going to accept arbitration.

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  13. oh shit - I meant no way Downs "accepts" arb. Obviously.

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  14. Also, according to MLBTR's latest Elias Rankings update (via somebody at DJF whose name I can't remember), Frasor is back down to Type B status. So that's good news.

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  15. "Orosco years" -- Christ, I love this blog.

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  16. Southpaws can chuck it forever. Barring career ending injury, this won't be Down's last contract. He could come back around like Darren Oliver.

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  17. with news that kc might be accepting inquiries on greinke, what could the jays package to pry him away? does arencibia, cecil and zach stewart do it?

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  18. I'm not sure what to think of Purcey. As an extreme FB pitcher he should be giving up more HR's, and given the high BB rate and the surprisingly low K rate (ie not high enough to offset the walks) I just don't see how he turns into a good reliever, let alone a replacement for Downs.

    He hasn't even been good against lefties over his career or in 2010, so it's not like he's been a good LOOGY. Obviously it's a small sample size, but you'd like to see some success at least lefty on lefty.

    I just don't see what Purcey has done to deserve a shot over Carlson who's become the forgotten man. He's got a 7.6 K/9 and a 2BB/9 in Vegas, and he's only a year older than Purcey. Plus Carlson's actually had some success here. I guess Purcey gets away with it because everyone sees him as a prospect though, even though he's going to be 29 next year.

    Which is why I'm still shocked that Tallet's still here. Get rid of him and give Carlson the spot he deserves. You still got Janssen and Purcey if you need help for a multi inning stint.

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  19. @plain_g I think they'd want a huge, huge package since his deal is pretty team-friendly.

    @anon - his strikeouts aren't bad and his walks are better but still not great. I like his ability to miss bats and his heavy fastball. Last night, obviously mop up, the Sox hitters he faced couldn't square anything up, another trait I love.

    You are right though - if he can't throw strikes he's no good to anybody. As for Carlson? One trick pony, once through the league and they had him figured out.

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  20. Your reasoning that Downs would turn down arbitration makes sense. I wasn't thinking about the "last chance to get a big payday" angle... I had mainly focused on the "he's 34, maybe a 4 year deal isn't out there" angle. And if Lyon got paid... there's no reason Downs wouldn't.

    I wouldn't be averse to seeing Downs come back on a 1-year arbitration deal (although eventually, the wheels will come off, so there is some risk to the team there), but the optimal outcome would be the 2 draft picks. As you say, Downs likely won't be pitching at this level by the time the team is truly making a run at the playoffs (2012? 2013?)

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