Expansive Thinking

Brave men and ESPN buddies Bill TPA and The Common Man, the high-quality dudes behind The Platoon Advantage as well as weekend Getting Blankards, recently undertook a daunting but interesting exercise. In their infinite wisdom, they went ahead and added two big league teams for the 2012 season. Not content to simply realign the leagues, the decided to fill the rosters of the new teams. 25 players per team aren't going to come out of thin air so...expansion draft time!

The guys asked us to protect 15 players ahead of the first round, then pull three exposed players back. Another round of picks then another three get protected. Read the introductory post, the first round of picks and the second/third rounds.

As this is a 'real team', contracts count as does age, I suppose (read the rules here). The Jays have so few albratross contracts so I didn't have much to worry about on that front. I simply tried to protect as much talent as possible.

With no further ado, here is my list with some general commentary following.

1. Jose Bautista
   
2. Ricky Romero
   
3. Brandon Morrow
   
4. Travis Snider
   
5. Brett Lawrie
   
6. Yunel Escobar
   
7. Kyle Drabek
   
8. Marc Rzepcyznski
   
9. Adam Lind
   
10. Zach Stewart
    
11. J.P. Arencibia
    
12. Anthony Gose
    
13. Rajai Davis
    
14. Henderson Alverez
    
15. Travis D'Arnaud

With the 21st pick in the first round, the Portland Webfoots select Brett Cecil of the Toronto Blue Jays. And the crowd booed Toronto's inept GM lustily.

Time for round two! My protected players:

1. Carlos Villanueva
   
2. Aaron Hill
   
3. Deck McGuire

And with the first selection of the second round, the Portland Webfoots select Eric Thames of the Toronto Blue Jays. And I feel shame. To the third and final round!

1. Adeiny Hechavarria
   
2. Carlos Perez
   
3. Jake Marisnick

Finally, with the sixth pick of the third round, the Brooklyn Hipsters select Brad Mills. Whatever.

And that's it. I fear protecting Rajai Davis was a mistake. In light of his play (both recent and historical) and two players I lost, I regret it. Leaving Davis exposed while protecting Cecil and then exposing Hill while protecting Thames probably helps me sleep at night.

On the other hand, I feel like Thames-type players are exactly the kind to move in an expansion draft. Maybe he could be the Webfoots' Al Woods? Sucks to see him go but players like him are not too hard to find. Hopefully, he proves me wrong.

In the end, not bad. Too mid-rotation lefties and a decent-if-defensively challenged power bat lost. The pitching depth makes the first two losses easier to swallow, the outfield competition and Bautista contract make Thames a little easier to take.

What are your thoughts? Always a good exercise to help realize other fans don't value your prospects quite like you do.

Make sure you click over and check out the full rosters, it's good stuff. Awesomely Keith Law compares the rosters and breaks down their merits. Once you finish taking in their entire project, come back here and tear a strip off yours truly in the comments.

Sad image of a happy guy courtesy of Reuters via Daylife.

Fun to Watch (Half the Game)

In selling the current iteration of the Toronto Blue Jays, we fans were told over and again how much "fun to watch" this team would be. An exciting brand of baseball was promised, with all manner of hustle, heart, and hyperolic cliches.

While it is true the Jays are exciting to watch, especially if you are partial to guys running around like their hair is on fire or you enjoy the feeling of your stomach and/or bile entering your mouth with each potentially squandered out. But that's only one side of the ball. The other side, the pitching, is a laborious chore.

The Jays starters currently rank last among starting staffs in walk rate, putting on an unsettling 4.35 per 9 via the free pass. As you might assume, they also trail in strikes thrown, meaning not only to they create their own baserunners but fall behind in the count all the time as well.

Taking a quick look at Fangraphs' pace numbers (measuring average time between pitches), you'll find nearly all Jays pitchers rank as below average. Jason Frasor leads the way, as you might imagine, with a whooping 28.5 seconds between his pitches.

It isn't as though the staff is missing as part of some greater organizational philosophy. The pitchers they're trotting out are simply struggling, none more than Brett Cecil.

Reader and frequent commenter Gil Fisher sent me some pitch f/x graphs from Brett Cecil's start last night that he couldn't make any sense of. After looking at the Brooks info and some of my own, I'm just as confused.

It really seems like Cecil is struggling with something — possibly his mechanics — that keeps him from throwing anything with conviction. The same inability to throw his changeup for strikes that plagued him last start continued last night - with a lack of fastball command joining the fun.

If something mechanically prevents him from throwing effectively, we can only hope Papi and friends will fix it straight away. Brandon Morrow might ride in to save the day but Cecil has another 30 starts to make this year, I can't stomach too many more 4 walk, 5 inning performances.

AP image courtesy of Daylife.

Strikeouts are Good

I assure you that strikeouts are, in fact, essential. One might link the struggles of a certain lefty back to his complete inability to strike people out.

Poor Brett Cecil notched 3 strikeouts in both his troubled & belabored 5 inning outings this year. He looks very ungood on the mound, grinding his way to 15 outs amid a hail of line drives and befuddled looks.

Why might this be? What is killing Cecil early this season? The lack of velocity certainly doesn't help but allow me to focus on his changeup. The serendipitous pitch that suddenly allowed Cecil to retire right handed batters and keyed his strong 2010.

In a mere two outings, right handed batters are bashing Cecil around pretty good. Not that we should expect a left-hander with less-than electric stuff pitching in his first April to run over glove-sided batters, but the results are not pretty.

As we saw at times last year, when guys like Cecil (and to a lesser extent Ricky Romero) struggle, it tends to be the changeup that lets them down. Either the offspeed offerings get pounded up in the zone or hitters stay patient with pitches off the plate, designed to elicit swings-and-misses. The bi-product of the latter is more fastballs from guys better served going with junk, the former simply results in line drives that don't get caught.

So I looked at what's become of Cecil's changeups this season compared to last and where in the zone he's putting them. These figures are versus right-handed pitching only. Click to enlarge, pitch f/x data courtesy of Joe Lefkowitz.


I'm mildly surprised to see the swinging strikes so similar, even in a tiny 10 inning sample. The only thing that stands out is gains made in the "in play, tears" section. The dreaded "wild in the zone?" Say it ain't so!


That is pretty much what "wild in the zone" looks like. Lots of pitches in hittable places. Too many thigh-high pitches in the middle of the plate. Again, troubling.

It don't mean to suggest Brett Cecil is a lost cause - he certainly is not. His swing-and-miss changeup makes him a viable starter for any team, let alone this rebuilding unit. I don't know if it is confidence or mechanics but if Brett Cecil cannot command this vital pitch, he's back to being a man without a real weapon against right handed pitching.

Picking 10 early season innings to hold up as proof of deep flaws is not my intention: I'm simply looking for what's gone wrong so far. For his and all our sake, let's hope it's something a few minor adjustments can rectify.

A.P. Photo courtesy of Daylife, pitch f/x stuffs from Joe as mentioned.

An Inning in the Life of Brett Cecil

All minor league pitchers should have to watch Brett Cecil's 1st IP. Struck out the side with location and changing speeds.

— Marc Hulet (@marchulet) April 3, 2011

An innocent tweet from Marc Hulet (of Fangraphs fame) got me thinking about a few things. First, I thought of Cecil's rapid evolution towards a cagey, soft-tossing lefty before his time.

Then I thought of the old Medical School posts I wrote on Halladay's sequencing. Then I thought of delicious sandwiches.

After lamenting the first and enjoying the third, I came back to the second. Why not take a look at what Cecil did against the Twins on Sunday? See if he actually changed speeds and angles or whatever.

Everything started out well enough, right up until I realized that GAMEDAY HATES BRETT CECIL. The biggest casualty of Cecil's disappearing velocity is the ability of these poor, overworked robots to discern what in the Hell Brett Cecil throws.

After some time I'll never get back and a little tweaking (with Excel 2003 at home, sad face) I took Marc's tweet literally and laid out Brett Cecil's first inning below. Let's travel along with the increasingly crafty lefty and see what worked for him against the Twins during the opening frame.

As a refresher: to properly read these graphs, imagine you are the catcher or umpire. The pitches are coming towards you (from the right hand-side of the image in this case, as Brett Cecil throws with his left hand.)

The RED dots are four seam fastballs, the BLUE dots are two seamers/sinkers, and the green dealies are change ups. Swinging strikes are X'd, called strikes boxed, and balls circled. Foul balls are starred and indicated as such. The bigger the point, the slower the pitch.

The batters are Denard Span (L), Tsuyoshi Nishioka (R), and Delmon Young (R). The strike zone is standardized...mostly. It is pretty much Span's zone for all three bros, which only affects Nishioka in any real way. Here we go.


Great start for Cecil! A Brett Cecil Attempted Four Seamer starts Span off 0-1. First pitch of the game, not a bad time to groove one. Next, Cecil opts for the sinking two seamer under the hands, which Span swings right through. Awesome. 0-2 on the leadoff man is a great way to live.

Cecil (and Arencibia, it should be noted) then attempt to trick poor Denard. Throwing a similar-looking pitch — the change up — in the same spot. The pitch is too far inside and too low, so Denard takes. 1-2.

Rather than waste a pitch, Cecil crosses Span up by coming with one of his "fast-balls" down and away. Span freezes, strike three. Cue cheering, ball thrown around the horn, goggle adjustments. Up next is Tsuyoshi Nishioka, a.k.a. Not Ichiro.



Again, the bottom of Nishioka's strike zone is a little higher than shown here, making the first pitch fastball down and away a clear-cut ball. Cecil then pounds the same spot again and gets the call, evening the count at one.

The slappy Nishioka figures to get defensive with the next pitch so Cecil and Cibia come way inside with a two seamer, a pitch that likely started on the edge of the plate. Nishioka takes and jumps ahead 2-1.

Cecil doesn't want to fall behind a guy without much power (he and I assume, because we're probably racist) so he comes back over the plate. But, as he plays in the American League East, it is a change-up, not a fastball. Nishioka swings through it and immediately regrets many decisions made over the last six months.

With the count now even at two, Cecil throws his BFF change-up on the inner half, freezing the Twins second baseman. Great job of keeping an inexperienced hitter off balance. Two down and up steps the free-swinging Delmon Young.


Despite my "free-swinging" billing, Cecil throws two straight sinkers up and over the plate to Young. Delmon fouls them both away, finding himself in a 0-2 hole.

Cecil then dials up his four seamer, buzzing Young's tower with the highest velo'd fastball he threw all afternoon. Good job of giving Young something to think about and "changing his eye level", as they often say.

Still in the driver's seat against a guy allergic to walking, Cecil goes to his new out-pitch: the change-up. For the second straight time, he throws the change in search of the strikeout.

And a strikeout is exactly what he gets as Young swings through the well-placed change down in the zone. Inning over! Parade planning under way!

This was, sadly, the high point of Cecil's day. He didn't look great at points on Sunday, seeming to battle fatigue as his velocity slipped as the day wore on.

If this is mechanical issue as the Tao and Cal from MUD discussed on Twitter, perhaps Walton and the new bossman can fix it. As he showed in this snapshot, he can mix it up and miss bats in a real way. If it is a health issue...getting it figured out sooner rather than later is preferable. This team will need him come October.

Pitch F/X data courtesy of Brooks Baseball. Get used to reading that.

Surprise! Wins are Useless

It was early last week when the good men of Infield Fly put up a poll, encouraging Jays fans to cast a vote for their favorite of the four main starting pitchers. Judging by the use of tags on this very website, you'd have to assume my answer would be Brett Cecil¹.

It's true I am a big believer in what Brett Cecil can do, but I'm quietly becoming concerned with that he is doing. Yes, he's tied for the team lead with 12 big wins. Unfortunately, outside a superlative month of May, he hasn't pitched especially well at any point this year.

That isn't entirely true. Cecil's ground out an excellent number of innings, driving his WAR up to 2.4 for the year. But of the four starters, Cecil trails in most key component stats. I last wondered about the Cecil condition at the end of June, a month in which his strikeouts nose-dived and his fastball seemed flat. A bunch of home runs and a lousy strand rate shoved his ERA over 5 and his W-L to 2-3 for the month.

July saw Cecil pitch, well, worse. His strikeouts slunk lower while his walks nearly doubled. Much to Cecil's benefit/credit, he kept the ball in the ballpark and the gloves of his mates, riding a very low BABIP and a sky-high strand rate to a 1-0 record and a sparkling 2.23 ERA. Arbitrary end points as they might be, two consecutive bad months is two consecutive bad months.

Brett Cecil improved his won loss record in August (going 3-2) by pitching much better, nearly as well as his great month of May. The walks fell off sharply, allowing Cecil to weather the normalization of his home run rate, his BABIP, and his strand rate. His ground ball rate went up again and, while not nearly as high as in the minors, nearly reached the excellent 50% plateau.

Again, I don't mean to diminish the contributions of Brett Cecil. Outings like his start against the Rays, in which he lasted 8 long innings after giving up 5 early runs are invaluable and the reason innings pitched is included in all worthwhile counting stats. It speaks to the fluky nature of starting pitching, where an ill-timed home run can turn the context of an entire start completely around.

To me, it is another example of the triumph of process over result. Comparing Cecil's last two starts is a pretty stark reminder of the cruel nature of his profession. A little bad defense behind you, one poorly located pitch at the worst time and you've got a loss and 5 runs tallied against you. Some people might not care that you cruised for the next 5 (lower leveraged) innings, but dancing between the raindrops for 6 innings — like Cecil did against the Yankees — is a very dangerous game. But one is a win and one is a loss, only the optics say any differently.

What am I saying here? I'm a little worried about Cecil moving into next year. I worry he has a better chance of taking a step back rather than forward. I worry his new love for the change up might turn him into a fly-ball thrower, most unfortunately in a homer haven for right-handed hitters. Basically, I'm worried that the not-great months outnumber the good.

All the talk of the 4 great starters gets the blood moving but at least two of them still have much to prove. Let us learn from the very immediate past and remain guarded (just a little) in our optimism.

¹ - The correct answer is Team Romero.

Splits courtesy of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. Image courtesy of Reuters.

What's Up with Brett Cecil?

Why beat around the bush? Brett Cecil's last three starts haven't been pretty. It's simple - his change up just isn't getting it done like it was. People aren't swinging at it, he isn't throwing it for strikes. The totality of the problem? Of course not. But I think the beginning of this season proved he needs it to get right handed hitters out.



The first thing you should notice is the lack of swinging strikes. He only registered one against the Padres and none versus the Phillies. His start against the Cardinals actually featured 6 whiffs, but very little tangible success. He also threw it far less against the Cards than usual.

The change can be a tough pitch to control, as Keith Foulke can attest. Sometimes it just refuses to stay in the strike zone long enough to force hitters to respect it. It is the only problem but I feel like many of Cecil's problems can be traced back to it.

His strike outs are down in June, his already-low strand rate is teeny tiny. His home runs are to a manageable-but-not-enviable level. Interestingly, or depressingly, Cecil's xFIP is exactly the same for May and June. 4.00. Still good, but a slight uptick in batting average on balls in play, a slight decrease in runners stranded and boom: trouble.

My biggest concern with Brett Cecil is his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark and strike dudes out. Cecil keeps it in the park much more this year, but the Ks just aren't really there. He struck out tons in the low minors but hasn't kept it up in the big leagues.

This isn't to suggest I think Brett Cecil is a 4.00 FIP third starter and that's that. Call me crazy but I believe he can continue to improve in the future, adding strikeouts and further limiting walks while maintaining his current groundball attack. Does that mean we'll keep seeing 4.00 ERA/FIP Cecil in 2010? Probably. He won't be this bad for long, a couple bounces and he's good. We're all good.

Splits from Fangraphs, Gameday data from Joe Lefkowitz.

Brett Cecil is a Really Good Starter

Like, really REALLY good. Like sixth in the American League in FIP, ninth in xFIP, seventh in strikeout per walk good. His splits show him to be nearly unhittable for left-handed batters (1.18 FIP) and decidedly excellent against right-handed hitters (3.84 FIP.) I could go on, if you'd like.

Since the famous finger injury which shoved his change up to the fore of his attack, the 57+ big league innings have each been thoroughly awesome. Of his 9 starts, only two ended with negative WPA totals; a fancy way of saying he puts his team in a position to win.

Those 57 innings are an interesting total. 57.2 innings is the same amount (or more) tossed in 2009 by MLB save leader Brian Fuentes, Mexicutioner Joakim Soria, Hillbilly Dynamo Bobby Jenks, Ageless Bon Scott fan Trevor Hoffman. All closers, all guys who provided the valuable service of recording the final three outs of a winning baseball game.

If any of one of the Angels, Royals, White Sox, or Brewers called up your Toronto Blue Jays and said: "hey, we'll trade you our 57 inning guy for your 57 inning guy," what do you think the Jays would say? The Jays most logical answer:

Today is June 7th. He figures to throw at least another 90 innings this year, giving him about 140 total. 140 innings is way more than 57! Even after his home run per fly ball and line drive rates come up to a more sustainable level, the 140 innings we get from a guy making 400 grand are much, much more important than figuring out who gets the last three outs of a close game.

Honestly, I respect Blair and Griff a ton, but suggesting (or even considering, as they did on the Sportsnet pre-game Saturday) making Cecil the closer is absolutely asinine.

Blair mentioned (via Twitter) that the conversation behind closed Jays doors references Cecil's experience closing in college. To which I say: who cares? Since that time Brett Cecil developed a great outpitch against any and all comers not to mention proving his ability to pitch deep into games. THAT IS A GOOD THING!

The "he closed in college" thought process seems lazy to me. To paraphrase a tweet by the occasionally great/occasionally annoying Matt Klaasen

Shaun Marcum played shortstop in college, should they move him there?

A bit dramatic but I can't disagree with the thinking. Yup, Brett Cecil was a closer in college. He's much better now at a much more important job, why waste his talents in a limited role?

Please please please, keep Brett Cecil out of the bullpen and out of the closer discussion entirely. I don't want to write this post again, you hear me?!? While there are many other internal rotation options, how many of them represent an upgrade over Cecil? At what point would devaluing a prospect/starter by moving him to the bullpen be better than simply trading that piece for something else of value? I don't get thinking like this, please don't make me waste more time on it in the future.

Thanks to Reuters/Daylife for the photo, Fangraphs for the data, and Brett Cecil's overwhelming clumsiness for the grip shown in the photo

Art

Sitting down to right another post (one that'll hopefully surface later today) I quickly learned Brett Cecil was pretty effing special tonight. His ongoing study in the advanced art of change-uppery is a site to behold.

The moderately hapless Indians were rendered completely without hap by Cecil's changeup, thrown in nearly equal measure to his fastball(s). The magic of Pitch F/x let's us appreciate an incredible start like this on another level. Strike zone plots help Jimmy play, and show how staying out of the middle of the plate is a very good thing.

A couple things to remember: the strike zone isn't actually shaped this way. Again I rounded the corners to give a better representation of what umps actually call, but the strikezone isn't wider than it is tall. I just do that to fill the frame a little more and give a better sense of where each pitch crossed. Again, we're looking from the catcher or ump's perspective, left handed batters stand on the right of the diagram.



So. Awesome. Cecil had incredible control of all his pitches Monday night; throwing his change almost exclusively to the righties in the Tribe's lineup, keeping them off-balance with his sinking fastball, thrown to the same half of the plate. Cecil spotted his fastball decently and threw his nasty slider and a few curves against the tough lefties (Choo, Sizemore, & Hafner) and generally looked every bit the stud.

That he kept the ball down and away from righties with both his hard sinker and feathery changeup is incredible. Cecil earned 5 big whiffs with his change, 12 total raising his season rate. That's how you amass 10 Ks in 8 innings, bringing that season total to 21. Against 3 walks. In 20+ innings. Bonertown.

Interesting: Cecil threw 29 four seamers, 27 two seam or sinking fastballs, 24 changeups, and 20 sliders. Wacky. That is some Shaun Marcum, any pitch in any count shit right there.

Further to that point, Cecil dangled his vaunted changeup in any number of counts.

• First pitch change: 4 times.
  
• 1-0 change: 4 times.
  
• 1-1 change: 4 times.
  
• 2-1 change: Twice.
  
• 0-1 change: 3 times.
  
• 0-2 change: Once.

He also (awesomely) threw a changeup in a full count and while behind 2-1 twice. He threw it in 2-2 counts twice, once ringing up a strikeout and once missing the zone. He doesn't give a damn, he just throws it.

He worked quickly and he worked well. We're all better for it. The Brett Cecil that crushed the Tribe last night isn't the same pitcher that crushed the Tribe last year: he's a new man with a terrible new weapon.

Pitch f/x data courtesy of good old Brooks Baseball. Check out their new forum & blog, they do an invaluable service. Image courtesy of Surfer Mag. THEY COULD BE BROTHERS AT LEAST

Abdicate the Throne

Foolish as it is to completely write-off Jason Frasor, we have to believe something is up. He's missing a couple ticks off his fastball and leaning on his foshy thing more than ever. He isn't missing bats and it looks like he isn't nibbling as a dignified king should. More than anything, finally, he's getting hit hard. Lots of line drives and far too many base runners. It isn't fun to watch (he grinds the proceedings to a halt faster than an impromptu marching band-version of Twist and Shout) and hopefully it won't continue.

The scuttletweet skews towards injured, the reactionary conjecture almost laughable at this time. Worth noting is Frasor's sky high early season BABIP of .467, a number sure to make any BP tosser proud. Hopefully somebody within Castle Ted can set Frasor right; as one of the longest-serving Jays, fans should fight the urge to toss him aside so quickly.

Not to parrot Wilner too closely, but assuming Jason Frasor and/or Scott Downs are now officially useless is plain crazytalk. They obviously aren't firing on all cylinders, and perhaps 5+ years of warming up and high-leverage stress and strain are starting to show, but it doesn't all come apart at once like this. The ground balls will return, the walks will dissipate, these two bullpen stalwarts will ride off into the distance at the end of the year knowing they pitched really well as members of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Brett Cecil - Bat Missing Fool

Man, Brett Cecil is pretty awesome. He'll battle the long ball forever since he isn't really overpowering, but he pitched his ass off on Saturday night. 11 big whiffs (8 ks) in less than 7 innings of work is a welcome change to the guy with spotty control in 2009.

The Jays starters — Brandon Morrow excepted — continue to throw strikes at very impressive rates, walking only 2.75 hitters per 9. If this is the legacy of Bruce Walton, he'll be a rich, rich man in a very short period of time.

Interesting to hear Cecil interviewed on Wilner's pregame show*, discussing his new change, a discovery from his thumb-slicing incident in the spring. Cecil marveled at the effectiveness of the pitch when thrown at full power, rather than making a conscious effort to heave it at 80% effectiveness. Call me crazy, but that just makes sense. The grip on the ball should slow it down as much as you'd need, shouldn't it? Anyway, Cecil reiterated what everybody should know by now: the change up is the best pitch in baseball right now. Throw one or suffer the consequences.

* - I use the word interesting here very, very liberally. Cecil dropped enough "yuh knows" in the 2 minute interview to make me think I'd suddenly turned to HockeyCentral. He did mention he was a big Caps fan, so he's not perfect.

Have All the Donuts in the World!

So Lyle Overbay finally got a day off, after putting together his best offensive day of the season. I'm willing to believe almost anything about The Manager, but accusing him of punishing Overbay for complaining about his playing time last year seems a little extreme. Not beyond the realm of possibility, mind you, but far enough out there that I won't give it too much thought.

One would hope a man who prides himself on treating players the way he wished to be treated wouldn't stoop so low as to allow petty grudges into his professional decision making. Then again, there must be SOME explanation for the ongoing Citocity.

Saturday News Noms

When news is what you're after, ordinarily GROF isn't the place to come. But I'm stuck at work tonight and a few quasi-interesting news bits leaked from Twitter like braincells from a Red Patch Boy.

Eye Chart Tries on a Necktie

With Marc Rzepcynski all but assured a starting slot from nearly the start of spring, I'd all but counted out Brett Cecil's chances to make the big club out of spring. Not so fast, completely uninformed guy 3000 kilometers away from the action. Jordan Bastian says otherwise:

One battle that is not drawing much attention right now is the quiet competition between young lefties Marc Rzepczynski and Brett Cecil for a rotation spot. It has been assumed all spring that Rzepcynski — a favorite of Gaston's — was a virtual lock. It's worth noting that general manager Alex Anthopoulos made the near three-hour drive to Fort Myers on Friday to watch Cecil spin a strong five-inning outing.

Alex Anthopoulos must have some dirty-ass fingernails from turning over every last stone in Florida. Driving for three hours in Florida counts as six hours of driving in Ontario, as every mile driven along a Florida highway brings you that much closer to death.

Before I get my Brett Cecil boner all engorged once again, I might balk at the viability of this battle. Unless Rzepcynski forgot how to throw strikes, I'd let him start the year at the big league level. It would make sense if, as Hugo at Bluebird Banter suggests, that Cecil is a part of The Plan while Rzepcynski is just a happy accident. Should the roles reverse and RZep starts the year in Vegas while Cecil's clock runs, would it be reckless it assume the opposite, that the Jays think they've got something special in Rzepcynski? Or is it just good old-fashioned baseball "who's throwing the best right now" thinking? The answers to theses questions say a lot about the direction of the Blue Jays; luckily I haven't a clue to those answers.

Branded!

The drugged up Dude singing in the back of the Malibu squad car is one of the funniest moments of The Big Lebowski. Though I'm sure Paul Beeston both makes a mean Caucasian and enjoys treating objects like women; I doubt he had a hand in branding Jason Frasor the closer. A report on Fox Sports by Jon Paul Morosi claims "Frasor is the guy they (ed. the Jays) seem to be peddling," attributing the quote to Bob Elliott's infamous "NL scout".

Could AA and friends market Frasor as their closer in an attempt to drive up his value? Would this even work? "He's our closer to start the season, YOU'D REALLY HAVE TO BOWL US OVER" hardly seems like the best way to extract maximum value for guy in the last year of his deal. Just as the rotational battles were likely over long before they began, I seriously doubt any team changed their valuation of Jason Frasor because Clarence deigned to name him The Closer.

Unless...added counting stats (like saves) could goose Frasor's value into Type A territory. If so, bravo Alex. You're a fucking genius.

Image of the last thing left-handed hitters of the AL East in 2011 will ever see courtesy of Getty Images via Daylife.

High Ceiling Deathmatch

The Blue Jays glut of pitching prospects, inning eaters, and AAAA roster filler gives rise to a very specific type of prospect porn. Where once there was rosterbation there is now auto-rotative arousal. The only thing longer than the boners of auto-rotational arousers is the list of potential starting pitchers for the Jays in 2010 and beyond. Morrow! Drabek! Chapman! McGowanCumPurMilRayLitMondet! It is a nice problem to have, and a lot of fun to image what happens if and when half these guys come of age. Two names from 2009 seem to split the opinions of Jays watchers: Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero.

Romero picked up some early Rookie of the Year buzz thanks to impressive months of June and July. Sadly he tired and struggled as the season wore on, posting much uglier numbers than I realized. 1.52 WHIP, 4 walks per 9 innings. While some pencil Ricky Roma in as the Opening Day starter, others (myself included) aren't so sure.

Brett Cecil rushed his way to the majors on the back of his excellent minor league lines. While in the big show he had some good starts and some very bad ones. He ended up with similar numbers to Romero in some respects; slightly better K/BB though fewer Ks. A worse WHIP with too many home runs surrendered. But how to they stack up? Who will be the better pitcher in 2010? 2011? The not-too-distant future in which the machines are self-aware but peaceful? Why don't we take a look see at what the bring to the table, pitchwise? I grabbed the data for three strong starts each. First: spin-deflection also known as break. Click to enlarge, full explanation below.


A couple things stand out to me: Ricky Romero's change up IS that good. It's usually the first thing people discuss when they break RR down and with good reason. Cecil's slider seems to clump up nicely, a good sign in terms of command me thinks. We can see another large cluster of black around -8 inches, representing Cecil's two seam fastball. He throws it often and with some success. Perhaps the two-seamer could emerge as the pitch to bolster his slightly lackluster ground ball numbers. In this admittedly small sample (three starts), Cecil induced nearly 40% of his grounders with the two seamer.

Romero gets a fuck ton of ground balls in his own way, mostly by pounding the zone with his fastball. One can only assume Romero's ability to change speeds forces a lot of roll overs and ground outs.

The erratic nature of both curves suggests these guys shouldn't really throw curveballs. Romero relies on his fastball and change up with a couple curves, sliders, and mixed-grip fastballs tossed in to keep hitters honest. Cecil is four seamer, two seamer and slider; with a pretty bad curve and occasional change up for good measure. How about a closer look?


Ahh, the spin versus velocity graph reveals all. Lots of fastballs and changeups from Romero, more variety from Cecil. Cecil's inability to throw his curveball consistently really shows here also. The angle & direction on which the ball spins sure goes a long way to tell us how and where it will break. Cecil's is all over the place, so is his curveball.

So what does this all mean? By my eye they seem to have pretty similar stuff. Each man reaches the mid-nineties with his fastball and offsets it with a good secondary pitch. Both guys need to throw more strikes and keep the ball in the park better. As for the future, well, deep exhale.

Not to go all intangibles on you here, but Ricky Romero scares me. One too many times I saw him staring into the dugout like a frightened rabbit looking for The Manager to come and rescue him. And that's not good. Brett Cecil has the reputation of a bulldog, a former closer with the swagger you like to see and desire to achieve. When I consider that he's two years younger than Romero and flew through the minors, I think he's only going to get better.

Romero struggled throughout his minor league career with make-up issues and the inability to trust his stuff. I don't know if that will haunt him forever, but when I watch him on the mound it informs my opinion of him. His shoulders slump forward and that's it for Ricky. Cecil showed the same vulnerability in Boston last year, a brutal start he basically quit on. But from what I see (and truthful, what I want to see) he wants to get better and perform. That's all well and good for a marginally talented player, but Cecil has the body and arsenal of a guy made to do this.

Brett Cecil serves as a good example of why teams aggressively promote some players while holding others back. In the lower minors he could get guys out simply by locating his fastball or throwing strikes with his slider. He still needs to learn to pitch, something Ricky Romero spent the extra seasons in the minors doing.

So yeah, I'm bullish on Cecil. I think he'll be a rotation mainstay for years to come, not just because I gave him a cool nickname. Which isn't to say I'm down on Romero or think poorly of him. When all is said and done, I feel Cecil will be the better player, it might even happen this season. No amount of time in the bullpen or working with The Manager can teach Romero what he already knows. Maybe he will take a big step this season. Develop his curveball further and become the Johan Santana clone he might just be. Which, I don't need to tell you, would be awesome.

Image courtesy of Wikipedia, Pitch F/X data courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Add It Up

It didn't take too many ringing line drives careening around a 80% empty Rogers Centre before I dove headlong into something interesting: win probability added. WPA is a wonderful thing, one I wish would gain more traction outside the Nerd Herd. Unfortunately, if ever a stat was in need of a rebrand, it's WPA. Click here if you'd like a full definition of Win Probability Added. Old school types should eat it up for its ability to elevate the clutch while de-emphasizing the usual counting stat nonsense.

Again, a rebrand is in order. Drop the tweedy "probability" from the name and go with something that pops like "grititude" or "total awesomesness." Total Awesomeness Added is a stat I can get behind. Perhaps take it in a more bonered direction; like Overall Engorgement Factor or EDHM (Equivalent Dry Hump Minutes.)

Johnny Mac's big home run the other day got me thinking and looking at individual WPA contributions this year. That context is the main driver behind WPA cuts both ways. It can undermine an otherwise dominant performance (as you'll see below) because the game just isn't close enough. But this is a "team game" after all and winning is everything. So just which hitter made the biggest single contribution to a Jays win thus far in 2009?

Name	WPA	W5
Aaron Hill	0.728	May 2, 5-4 (11) v. Baltimore
Adam Lind	0.721	May 5, 10-6 v. Cleveland
Still the GBOAT	0.630	June 16, 8-3 (10) v. Philadelphia
Aaron Hill	0.611	April 7, 5-4 v. Detroit
Lyle Overbay	0.475	April 18, 4-2 (12) v. Oakland
Rod Barajas	0.473	August 26 3-2 v. Tampa Bay
Aaron Hill	0.413	August 1, 6-5 v. Oakland
Aaron Hill(!)	0.396	May 27, 10-12 v. Baltimore
Travis Snider	0.390	April 13, 8-6 v. Minnesota

Thoughts or concerns? Lots of extra innings as the added leverage really jacks up the win probability. Also, Aaron Hill is apparently vastly underpaid. 5 of the offense's top 10 games this season, including one loss? Shocking. I am shocked. Barajas accomplished his 0.473 of a win in just one at bat, a pinch hit, game tying affair with the Rays. Remember when Travis Snider hit those two home runs that one game? Yeah, that was awesome. How about the pitchers?

Name	WPA	W5
Roy Halladay	0.458	May 22, 0-1 v. Atlanta
Ricky Romero	0.443	April 19, 1-0 v. Oakland
Roy Halladay	0.430	July 19, 3-1 v. Boston
Ricky Romero	0.423	July 1, 5-0 v. Tampa Bay
Brett Cecil	0.421	July 21, 1-2 v. Cleveland
Brett Cecil	0.414	May 10, 5-0 v. Oakland
Roy Halladay	0.398	July 24, 2-4 (10) v. Tampa Bay
Brett Cecil	0.385	July 10, 2-0 v. Baltimore
Brian Tallet	0.385	August 8, 3-2 (10) v. Baltimore

Holy shit, Brett Cecil! Interesting to see Cecil & Romero up here so many times. I guess pitching yourself into and straight out of jams will keep your games tight and your WPA high. 3 losses among the top 10 games, which really says a lot about the amount of context given to WPA. Pitch to the score my ass. Brian Tallet pitching 5 innings of scoreless relief is enough to let the big man amble into the top 10.

Do you notice anything when comparing the contributions of pitchers relative to hitters? The hitting performances carry much, much more weight than solid starts. Again, context is king. Creating a positive event weights that much heavily than preempting negative events before they occur. In other words, it takes a lot to build a large WPA pitching while for hitters it comes in bunches. Again, extra innings helps a lot. Consider Brandon League's three innings of ol'time killin in extra innings against the Yanks ranks ahead of Roy Halladay's one hit masterpiece (which I gave a pitch f/xing earlier this week). Two early runs and the Doc's complete domination worked against him, as it relates to WPA.

Check the list as I compiled it here. I basically took the best performances from each guy this year to a limit. I've also included something else interesting: how hugely a bad pitching performance impacts a win. Seems obvious but I was still surprised. Sadly, Brandon League has 2 of the biggest negative WPA outings of the year. A severe bed-shitting by Tallet in which he repeatedly gave away leads the offense handed him is the worst of the lot, totaling -0.681 WPA.

Thanks to Fangraphs for the WPA info and Baseball Reference for the game logs.

Overblown

Let's not climb all over ourselves in an mad dash to bury Lyle Overbay. Lyle Overbay is an amazing first baseman who made a difficult play look impossible. I'm a little uncomfortable with my apologist position here, but I think about it this way: isolated sucking is one thing, sustained sucking is another. Sustained sucking with no hope of improvement is where I draw the line and start casting aspersions. Like Jose Bautista! Remember when he walked all the time? That's kinda the only thing he offers, and even that is regressing. His on base is slowly making its way back to Earth, along with his bloated wOBA. The less said about Kevin Millar the better. Complaining about him is like complaining about Canadian winters or the GST.

Like Elliott Ness

Speaking of overblown, the most overused word this time of the year is "untouchable." Such and such a prospect is untouchable, he's on our untouchable list. This is the used car salesman coming out of every GM. He's only untouchable because it drives up his value. I recently acquired a list of "untouchable" prospects from baseball GMs, it looks like this:

• Self doubt
  
• Self awareness
  
• Style
  
• Humility

Those are the only things a baseball GM can't offer you for any price. Anything else that may save their job, improve their team, or make ownership money is fair game. Kyle Drabek is not untouchable, but labeling him so creates a lot of intrigue and perceived value. Stephen Strasburg, Matt Weiters, Tommy Hanson and David Price are the only guys that come close to being untouchable.

Overthrown

That said, if anyone came knocking for Brett Cecil, would you say yes? His future is as bright as his present is muddied by poor control. Playing with fire and generally pissing around against the god-awful Racist Nicknames is one thing, against a real time you'll be in trouble. But this too will pass and, as Mike Wilner said, he'll be a damn fine number 2 starter in this league.

God Bless the Orioles

The meth-addicted cousin that can't hold a job. The drunk guy on the subway that missed his stop. The friend that unironically quotes Austin Powers and insists on playing poker although he can barely count to 13. There is always someone around to make you feel better about yourself when you're feeling down.

One thing I'll say about the OriLOLs, they sure look good in a nice necktie.

Good thing hitting streaks are utterly pointless and silly, or else I'd be bummed that Scott Rolen's ended. Good thing.

Erectus Interuptus

The Brett Cecil love is coming fast and furious, but "win two tomorrow" Cito had to go and ruin it:

Don't forget, Cecil was a closer in college, so he can pitch out of the bullpen, too....But I can't say enough how (Cecil) pitched," Gaston continued. He went out and threw strikes. You hope it's the start of something good for him.

Seriously Cito? IT IS a good START for him, in his career as a potential number 2 STARTER.

Never mind that your bullpen is already one of the best in the game. How can you advocate wasting a talent like Cecil's in the bullpen? Just look at the Jays bullpen, for example. All scrapheap finds and reclamation projects. No place for a highly-touted draft pick. The last thing I need in my life is play Canadian J from 3:10; explaining over and over (and over again) how much more valuable an arm like Cecil's is in the starting rotation. 140 innings versus 60 innings, not a debate.

Perhaps you'd move Cecil into the bullpen after the all star break, as an anonymous commenter suggested. Acting under the assumption the Jays will still be contending at that time (p!), the team simply doesn't benefit for a list of reasons. Adding another lefty back there serves no real purpose. I love the way Tallet's pitched; but if the choice is between him and Cecil I'll take the kid until the numbers tell me other wise. If you are simply going to showcase another of the fringe starters, I guess I'll understand. Once again it comes back to skills and ceilings. Right now Cecil's is higher than any of the young pitchers, he deserves the best shot to succeed.

Awesome Stuff from the Fangraphs Institute of Baseball & Divorce

Who knew? The good people at Fangraphs recently added two new features to suck your life away. Firstly, they've added in-season ZIPS projections. Adding the rest of season projection to what Aaron Hill's already done, you get a line of .311/.358/.466 or a .824 OPS. So he'll slow down but only drop 80 points from his current OPS? Sold. ZIPS figures Alex Rios will pick it up and OPS .809 over the remainder of the season. Sold again. Check out each player's ZIPS on their individual pages.

You'll also notice they added Bill Jame's speed score to the advanced stats tab. The speed score is "an average of Stolen Base Percentage, Frequency of Stolen Base Attempts, Percentage of Triples, and Runs Scored Percentage." Unsurprisingly, the Jays speediest players this season have been Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. Somewhat surprising to see very, very large man (or Manmountain) Scott Rolen rank fourth this season and fifth in 2008. This isn't a baserunning metric remember, a distinction clearly embodied by the Blissfully Oblivious Gazelle's (TM Tao) speed score ranking significantly higher than his "do you have any idea what you're doing out there" metric. The oft pinch-run-for and slightly wooden Adam Lind once again ranks as a great Jays baserunner.

A Moment of Perspective

Nope. Sorry. I've got none. My Necktie is tied so tight, I can barely breathe. Not that I mind, what's a little auto-erotic asphyxiation between friends?

Seriously though: Read The Mockingbird's take on Brett Cecil (based only on his first start, mind you) and tell me he shouldn't hit his Verducci Number (approx. 140 IP) in the big leagues this year. Tell me Brian Tallet doesn't deserve to stay in the rotation until he proves he doesn't belong. Tell me Jesse Litsch, lovable as he may be, deserves a rotation spot no questions asked upon his return (you can't.) It's not about the next big thing, it's about stuff. Missing bats, changing speeds, genetic defects (being left handed is good? Now I've heard everything!), and surviving mistakes. Put another way: repeatable skills crucial to long-term success.

Will the league figure out Richmond's nasty slider after another go around the league? Will the league take note of Cecil tipping his pitches behind his back? They just might, but either way the Jays are in an enviable position as you well know.

But I don't want to get carried way.

Various & Sundry Bonerdom

I don't care how soft their schedule's been; how bad the various pitching staffs they've faced are: the Jays will worsening the fuck out of you and everything you hold dear. Some bullpen hiccups, some luck (some bad but mostly overwhelmingly good), games both given and taken away, it all adds up to an entertaining first week of May. Some thoughts from all over.

Brett Cecil: Heaven Sent

Soooo, Brett Cecil is pretty good, I'd say. Some strangely poor defense behind him and the ridiculous offensive strategy the Indians went with "Hey, let's see what happens if I stick my arm in front of this curveball!" Fuck them. Cecil was much bigger than I expected, wore more jewelery on the mound than Mr. T, and changed speeds better than a drunk through a radar trap. Brooks Baseball's Pitch fx tells us he brings the heat (topped out at 95!) and threw all his pitches for strikes. Very impressive. He wasn't afraid to pitch inside and generally impressed more 10 to 15 times more than I thought he would. I wonder if he's up for the duration? He'll certainly be given a chance to pitch himself out of a job.

One last thing we will note now and forever more: Vegas stats mean less than nothing.

Life Above Replacement

The always excellent Yankees Replacement Level Blog calculated the WAR (wins above replacement) for each team at each position in the American League. Unsurprisingly, the Jays are at or above replacement level at every single position around the diamond. Somewhat surprisingly, thanks to poor defense (!?), the Jays outfield has barely played above replacement level. The amazing infield play is manifested in a first place ranking for shortstops, third place for third basemen (fuck you, haters), surprising seventh for second basemen (negative defense, what gives?) and second place WAR for first basemen. Really interesting stuff, I highly recommend clicking on through.

More Crap

• Make sure you check out Walkoff Walk every day, I'm posting regularly through the week for while. There is inevitably Jays content shoehorned into every post.
  
• Adam Lind ranks third in pitches/plate appearance in all of baseball. Guess what, he's awesome.
  
• Jays are on the West Coast which means I'll finally be able to liveblog a Jays game on the Score! Check it out tonight at 10pm! PS Follow me on Twitter.
  
• Lots of "is Toronto for real" stuff floating around. The strength of schedule? The strength of my boner will tell you all you need to know.

Chin Chin

A tough, extra innings loss can really weigh on your conscience. No matter how it went wrong, you can always point to a moment where it could have turned around. Best to wake up early, make sure your shit's tight (hair, beard, hobo novelty sideburns, or whatever), pull on your best suit and look forward with purpose. A positive mental outlook makes it easy to soldier on.

One note on your suit. Styles change with time. Ties get short and fat, long and skinny, short and skinny, long and fat (like yer moms) but one thing will always be true: when you're wearing A CECILLIAN NECKTIE, nothing bad will ever happen.

The future is now friends, best look the part.

Inconvenient Truths and the Shape of Things to Come

Baseball's version of the New Deal is nearly upon us. The good men at Mop Up Duty lay the awful truth on the table, exposing the Jays sudden interest in Ricky Romero as a cynical way to keep from starting the clocks of Messers Cecil and Mills. The money quote from Kman:

In-fact, I’d say that Mills would have made the team if he was LESS impressive. Brad upped his stock so much this spring that the Jays want another year of control.

Ugh. You pitched well, congrats. We're sending you to Vegas for two months to get knocked around in the hot, thin air when you're hung over and haven't slept for three days. PS. Don't get robbed. (h/t Iracane Sir)

The ever-informative Bart Given posed this question with regard to Travis Snider as well. While I agree that maintaining that extra year of control is a good idea, I think that ship has sailed. Why wouldn't they have called him in September, rather than on August 29th? That started his clock, while waiting three days would have spared the Jays those 30 days of service time.

While he seems like a pre-arb Sizemore/Longoria deal candidate, some think this isn't a sure thing. With these extra years of control being so valuable, agents recognize everyone is trying to weasel a below market deal. Sometimes they work out, like Sizemore. Sometimes they end up like Manny Corpas or Troy Tulowitzki, good ideas at the time that beging to look less attractive as the injuries mount. Attractiveness is of course relative; and an $18 million bust is certainly preferable to a $60 million dollar one.

Sad and Unfortunate Update: Best regards, Mr. Brattain. You'll be missed.

Sports Math

A quick study of the general sporting landscaping reveals one ultimate truth: there is a direct correlation between casual gambling and general interest. Hardly earth-shattering, but vest people's interest and you've got their attention. March Madness is fun, but I've been so immersed in fantasy drafts I haven't really given more than a passing thought. Maybe baseball should develop a more cheek-to-cheek relationship with bookies to increase it's TV exposure? That went so well last time, right? On the most basic, fundamental level betting on baseball is pure insanity. You get what you deserve if that's how you get your pulse racing.

Regarding fantasy drafts; twenty people in a pool with twenty roster spots will take years off your life.

Sporadic Information Relayed Quickly

• 3:10 to Joba's Better Know a Prospect series keeps rolling on, and I was lucky enough to contribute! Everyone's 2010 mancrush Brett Cecil was my subject, check it out and make sure those Yankee fans keep their slimy digits off Cecil until at least 2018.
  
• Rocco plays the bass? Who knew? I'm sure he's a straight up U2 guy, though a small part of me thinks about him playing the intro to Impact in front of his locker.
  
• I don't think not pitching for Canada will cost Scott Richmond his shot in the rotation, I think Scott Richmond's inexperience, lack of stuff, and the presence of better options will keep him out of the rotation.
  
• Too bad for Cuba. Couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of guys who rely on distraction and mindgames to win. Fuck. Them.