Doom, Gloom, and Sponging Up the Fun

It looks more and more likely that Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays will reach a long-term agreement, especially after postponing their arbitration hearing until Friday. That, I think, could be a good thing for the Blue Jays in the future, provided the length and terms are agreeable.

Just about everything looks good for the future of the Blue Jays. The present...not so much. It isn't that the upcoming season is already lost or that I don't eagerly await Opening Day. I just think there are many short-term potholes between the Jays and a steady cycle of success.

I said as much during my turn at the helm of the ESPN Sweet Spot blog over the weekend. The Jays are in great shape for the future, unencumbered by regrettable contracts with a nice pipeline of talent streaming towards the big leagues. Too bad not enough of that talent is ready to salvage 2011.

The 2010 rotation was alarmingly durable, not missing a start until the Jays shut Brandon Morrow down. Can that continue? I know I'd like to think pitchers progress in a linear fashion but there is a real chance either Ricky Romero or Morrow suffer setbacks at some point of their career. If anything, shouldn't we hope this happens in 2011?

Adam Lind and Aaron Hill were very bad in 2010 at doing anything other than hitting one home run a week. They were much better in 2009 as you well know. Which season was the fluke? Adam Lind has the minor league track record and all but Hill is the human outlier. Assuming this duo fills the productivity hole left with Vernon Wells' departure & Jose Bautista's return to Earth is reckless indeed.

Frankly, I'm scared. I'm afraid 2011 will be ugly enough to kill all the good vibes Alex Anthopoulos accrued this winter. I don't even know why. What does it matter to superfans like us? (That's me writing this and you reading it.) The fairweather fans are only going to be there in fair weather, it's right there in the name! Maybe I like the idea of bloggers and fans of other teams coveting our wonder boy and his Ichiro-esque batting average.

As warily cynical as I am about the two items discussed above, I am completely bullish and hopelessly positive about Travis Snider in 2011. Nothing I see or read this spring can dissuade me from believing, for no real reason, that this is the year he goes off. Even if he doesn't, he sure seems like a swell dude to hang out with, which is more than any of us have any right asking for.

Building on the 85 wins Cito's magic potion rung from the Jays in 2010? We cannot get greedy. Enjoy the growth, enjoy the sun and enjoy the ups and downs. I think it is important we take the downs in stride because I've written this post too many times and at some point need to sack up and demand Playoffs!!1! like a real fan should.

Reuters Image courtesy of Daylife

Surprise! Wins are Useless

It was early last week when the good men of Infield Fly put up a poll, encouraging Jays fans to cast a vote for their favorite of the four main starting pitchers. Judging by the use of tags on this very website, you'd have to assume my answer would be Brett Cecil¹.

It's true I am a big believer in what Brett Cecil can do, but I'm quietly becoming concerned with that he is doing. Yes, he's tied for the team lead with 12 big wins. Unfortunately, outside a superlative month of May, he hasn't pitched especially well at any point this year.

That isn't entirely true. Cecil's ground out an excellent number of innings, driving his WAR up to 2.4 for the year. But of the four starters, Cecil trails in most key component stats. I last wondered about the Cecil condition at the end of June, a month in which his strikeouts nose-dived and his fastball seemed flat. A bunch of home runs and a lousy strand rate shoved his ERA over 5 and his W-L to 2-3 for the month.

July saw Cecil pitch, well, worse. His strikeouts slunk lower while his walks nearly doubled. Much to Cecil's benefit/credit, he kept the ball in the ballpark and the gloves of his mates, riding a very low BABIP and a sky-high strand rate to a 1-0 record and a sparkling 2.23 ERA. Arbitrary end points as they might be, two consecutive bad months is two consecutive bad months.

Brett Cecil improved his won loss record in August (going 3-2) by pitching much better, nearly as well as his great month of May. The walks fell off sharply, allowing Cecil to weather the normalization of his home run rate, his BABIP, and his strand rate. His ground ball rate went up again and, while not nearly as high as in the minors, nearly reached the excellent 50% plateau.

Again, I don't mean to diminish the contributions of Brett Cecil. Outings like his start against the Rays, in which he lasted 8 long innings after giving up 5 early runs are invaluable and the reason innings pitched is included in all worthwhile counting stats. It speaks to the fluky nature of starting pitching, where an ill-timed home run can turn the context of an entire start completely around.

To me, it is another example of the triumph of process over result. Comparing Cecil's last two starts is a pretty stark reminder of the cruel nature of his profession. A little bad defense behind you, one poorly located pitch at the worst time and you've got a loss and 5 runs tallied against you. Some people might not care that you cruised for the next 5 (lower leveraged) innings, but dancing between the raindrops for 6 innings — like Cecil did against the Yankees — is a very dangerous game. But one is a win and one is a loss, only the optics say any differently.

What am I saying here? I'm a little worried about Cecil moving into next year. I worry he has a better chance of taking a step back rather than forward. I worry his new love for the change up might turn him into a fly-ball thrower, most unfortunately in a homer haven for right-handed hitters. Basically, I'm worried that the not-great months outnumber the good.

All the talk of the 4 great starters gets the blood moving but at least two of them still have much to prove. Let us learn from the very immediate past and remain guarded (just a little) in our optimism.

¹ - The correct answer is Team Romero.

Splits courtesy of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. Image courtesy of Reuters.