Good for What Ails Ya

Would you look at that? The Mariners are in town, with their too-clever-by-a-half GM licking his wounds as this team of his creation engineers one of the worst offensive seasons in the modern era. The Mariners are spectacularly awful at the plate, hitting fewer home runs than Jose Bautista hits no-doubters.

The defense and pitching are still strong but this team does less than nothing at the plate. What a great way to imbue a young crew of starters with some late-season confidence.

The Mariners never walk (a Blue Jays-esque 7.8%!) so even struggling Marc Rzepcyznski might put together a decent outing. The M's are middle of the pack in terms of swinging strikes so we can't expect Drabukkah to become a Strasmas-esque Passover celebration. The Mariners are so popless that even tater tot enabler Shaun Marcum could face them and escape relatively unscathed (though he's too busy popping off to worry about the lack of people popping out.)

Though my great appreciation for all things Mariner is pure, this is a great chance for The Manager to cut the apron strings and let the kids out against a lackluster opponent. That said, the businessperson's special against King Felix seems like a great day for Aaron Ciba to pull up a slice of bench beside The Manager.

God only knows the amount of knowledge Clarence can share with his young charge, even if most of it is via osmosis.

All Star Break Thoughts

Heading into the break, I'm surely not alone in wondering where the first half of the season went? Not where it went wrong, but where it went in general. 89 games down already? Crazy. That means there are fewer Blue Jays games remaining than we've already seen. That's a bummer.

You know what else is a bummer? The Jays offense. Sure, home runs are fun and all, but the good people at Sportsnet put up a simple graphic during yesterday's game that sort of blew my mind. The Jays offense, for all its ding-donging, is performing worse than last year. As a team the Jays have scored 30 runs fewer than they scored at the exact same point last year, despite hitting an extra 35 home runs. That is....messed up.

How is that possible? Oh RIGHT, the outs. Making all the outs. Hitting the solo jone runs and what not. It got me thinking: which stat has the most direct relationship to runs scored? Rather than do actual, valuable research, I think I'll make a graph!

Here's what I did: I took all runs scored totals for each team thus far in 2010 and graphed it against their on-base, slugging, OPS, and weight on-base average (wOBA.) Then I added a trendline and took the R-squared or coefficient of determination. Basically I'm using this small, noisy sample to show which rate has the strongest relationship to runs scored. The higher the number (closer to 1), the stronger the relationship between that stat and scoring runs. Hardly scientific or ironclad, but worth a look either way. The results are below, click to enlarge.



Man, those nerds aren't just talking out of their collective, square-shaped asses. Does the Jays offense reflect this? They rank 15th in runs scored, 27th in OBP, 2nd in slugging, 9th in OPS, and 12th in wOBA. The conclusion? Despite what we all learned as starving bachelors; man cannot live on tater tots alone.

A couple interesting asides: the Jays are victims of the worst BABIP in baseball, though luck isn't the only one to blame. The incredible number of fly balls they hit make them easy to defend efficiently. Also having one of the lower line drive rates in baseball makes it hard to get people on base. The HR/FB% is super high but, as I've mentioned before, that might be by design.

The other exciting finding from this little experiment has to do with batting average. I gave good old baseball card average the same treatment against runs scored, and guess what I found? A R² of 0.4815. A mere 60% of the relationship between OPS, wOBA & runs scored. This surely isn't news to anyone who'd be interested in this kind of information but it certainly lays waste to the value of average for basically anything, doesn't it?

Image courtesy of Happy Hour Valley, data courtesy of Fangraphs

Credibility Pouring from Every Orifice

By now you've likely read about The Fan's curious decision to "bench" Mike Wilner for the weekend after an "altercation" with "The Manager" during a pre-game scrum. John Lott of the National Post has the story and it's a eye-opener. To wit:

Friday, Wilner was absent from the game and his usual post-game call-in show. A source close to the situation said management had “benched” him for the weekend. It was unclear when he would return to his post-game show.

“My only comment is that I have the weekend off,” Wilner said in response to an email seeking comment.

The Toronto chapter of the BBWAA expressed concern to Paul Beeston in a letter, which Beeston promptly ignited and used to light his $40 cigar. When asked for comment on the matter, Beeston claimed he would look into the matter as soon as he finished gazing longingly at the full-sized image of Cito (in full 1992 regalia) adorning his office wall.

It isn't all that surprising that a guy known for petty grudge-holding like Clarence would ask the media relations arm of the ROGERS TORONTO BLUE JAYS BASEBALL PARTNERSHIP to keep Wilner at a distance, but it is baffling that any of the witless suits at The Fan would acquiesce to such pathetic request. The flagship station is clearly more interested in stooges like Eric Smith, Roger Lajoie, and The Enunciator David Alter; who read the commercial copy on time and bend over backwards to agree with every caller.

Wilner certainly has his detractors, and I'm generally sympathetic to him here though I don't accept his version of the events as gospel. If a reporter wants to hector The Manager to his face, that's fine. Publishing a "full" record of the confrontation on his company blog leaves him exposed for this type of corporate backlash. Criticize Clarence the manager fine, but once you start encroaching on the Black Dad Brand, then you're in trouble.

Peep the Segue

The Brand that is Cito Gaston is a tricky thing to pin down. Call me crazy, but were we not sold his ability to coach and instruct young hitters? A guy that would teach them how to play the game at this level while offering his patented confidence boost via consistent playing time. Which makes this quote from The Manager about Fred Lewis a little odd:

“I can see sometimes that he needs some work here or there, but I think that’s something that whoever’s here next year will address,” Gaston said. “The only thing we’ve told Fred is that when the ball’s hit right at you, just make sure you go to your strong side.”

Umm, why wait until next year? Is this part of the lose one now, win two later" ethos? Is the concern filling Fred Lewis's head with so much knowledge that other important things like "remember to come to the ballpark before game time" and "shoes go on feet" might fall clean out of his head?

Lewis has shown, on a few occasions, lapses in judgment or attentiveness; his calling cards back in San Fran. I'm not going to lie to you: I don't give a good god damn. His routes are wacky bordering on cringe-worthy in the field (and his metrics back it up) but I'm having a grand old time with the Fred Lewis Era.

At the risk of venturing off on a dangerous tangent, does the lack of "heady" play by uber-athletic ballplayers like Lewis and Alex Rios speak to a lifetime of poor coaching? Not bad coaches necessarily, but as if often mentioned in the discussion of black quarterbacks, coaches don't devote the required time to guys who make the game look so easy.

Why spend 45 minutes working on outfield positioning minutiae with Fred Lewis when he'll just outrun the fly balls anyway? Why fix the million moving parts and bizarre weight shifts in Alex Rios's swing when he hits one-handed home runs off his back foot? Why teach Vernon Wells to lay off the high fastball when he gets on top of it and drives it out of the park? A dangerous can of worms indeed, one Cito has no interest upsetting.

Shout out to reader Kevin for the tip on the Globe piece. Follow him on twitter @allisauce24

Every Man for Himself

Whenever you hear a coach or player prattle on about individual results and accolades placing a distant second to wins for the team - they are lying. If you believe the players think stats don't mean anything other than double u's - you are mislead.

What other possible explanation could there be for The Manager's affinity for letting "his guys" acquire counting stats. Want Marcum to get the CG and win? Cool. Leave him out there after two balls were completely covered, absolutely smoked? Why? Do the contributions of Aaron Hill - the bug on the windshield seen above - mean less than Marcum's potential complete game? I know you got knocked around second base like a tender nipple ring Aaron, but it's important that Shaun gets his CG." Thanks for coming out!

Does the front office have a copy of the "Lose One to Win Two Later" flowchart? I'd love to see the exact hierarchy so I know who matters most inside the Blue Jays clubhouse. At least then I'll have some appreciation for the moves as they're made.

I know better than to sweat Clarence's wheelings and dealings, but once any and all logic falls apart, I'm at a loss. I found myself agreeing with Cito today as I caught the daily shitshow that is baseball talk on The Gameplan. "You can't yank the closer after to batters with a three run lead" I agreed. But leaving a tiring starter out as he flies past the 100 pitch mark is another matter all together.

Does Cito double as a player agent as part of a vast club-wide conspiracy to make Toronto a more inviting place to play? Does Clarence even strike you as the kind of man who cares what the players think of him? I'm sure he wants them to respect him, but as I said above, the "teacher's pet" target seems to move an awful lot from one guy to another.

It's only one game, but like everything, it is symptomatic of a deeper problem. Whether you believe these games to be "important" or not, that is the clear impression among the ticket buying public. I wonder how impressed the brass is with the potential ticket sale losses brought about by a pair of heartbreaking losses?

Image courtesy of the Steve Russell's awesome Toronto Star photoblog.

Say What You Like About the Tenets of Citocity, At Least it's An Ethos

or How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love the Bomb.

Last night's three solo home run outburst cinched it. The 2010 Blue Jays are a one trick pony who are going to have a hard time staying out of their own way. But you know what? That's okay.

I used to write a lot about style on this page, even though style and baseball are slightly dissonant ideas. This 2010 Blue Jays team, it has style. It's brash and obnoxious and its own worst enemy, but damn if it isn't fun to watch. The numbers are clear - this cannot sustain a ballclub over 162 games. But who cares?

"Plan your work, work your plan" an oft-repeated cliche. Clarence hardly planned this, claiming in a doddering moment this spring that the team would create offense and move runners around and all that good shit. This ran in direct opposition to a later (truer) claim that a bunch of guys could possibly knock a truckful of dingers.

The cruelest irony of the Jays free swinging ways, the greatest victim in the great paradigm shift of 2010: Aaron Hill.

So often chided for being a free-swinger, Bizarro Hill is now the most patient hitter on the team. The worst hitter, but the most patient. After we all wailed about his inability to talk a walk, he's now seeing next to nothing in the strike zone. The result? Sky-high walk totals and rock bottom line drive rates.

I wonder what this says about our desire to stretch players across all five tools? Did Aaron Hill hear the whispers of his impatience and change his entire approach? Is he now pressing; mad worse by the dearth of quality pitches he's offered to hit? It is a troubling time for Aaron Hill, for the most part. He is the streakiest man alive, so we have that to hang onto.

But these 2010 Jays, they are throw-your-hands-in-the-air-in-disbelief awesome. Bang-your-head-off-a-table-in-anger awesome. This-can't-possibly-work awesome. They are the bad movie you quickly realize is one of your all-time favorites. They are a bad team playing well. They are ours.

C'mon Down to the Great At Bat Giveaway!

Get your front foot down and get them while they're hot! We've got league-leading impatience available for you at rock bottom prices!

• Out of zone swings? WE GOT'EM
  
• League Worst On Base Percentage? WE'RE NEARLY THERE!
  
• Contact Rate on Pitches in the Hitting Zone? BOTTOM FIVE AND AIMING FOR THE CELLAR!
  
• Walk per Strike Out Rate? SO LOW, YOU'D THINK WE'VE SUFFERED BRAIN DAMAGE!!
  
• Fly Balls? LEAGUE MOST! More balls sent skyward than the Pride Parade!
  
• Infield Fly Balls aka Automatic Outs? CAN'T BEAT US IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE!

The era of patience and avoiding outs is over. This is the dawn of a new epoch, one of grips, rips, and sitting on the fastball come hell or high water. The time has come to to make Jon Lester & Clay Buchholz¹ look like Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale.

It's fine, we've got some big sticks on this club. We're so good, in fact, we aren't interested in getting into hitter's counts, the 2010 Toronto Blue Jays are all about trying to hit the pitcher's pitch. We'll flail at a thousand sliders low and away before we take one fastball off the plate. Aggression isn't just out motto, it's our way of life!

¹ To be fair, both these guys pitched brilliantly. Credit to them; though pitching against the Jays isn't exactly grounds for hazard pay these days.

Image courtesy of Flickr user Nep, depression courtesy of Fangraphs.

Abdicate the Throne

Foolish as it is to completely write-off Jason Frasor, we have to believe something is up. He's missing a couple ticks off his fastball and leaning on his foshy thing more than ever. He isn't missing bats and it looks like he isn't nibbling as a dignified king should. More than anything, finally, he's getting hit hard. Lots of line drives and far too many base runners. It isn't fun to watch (he grinds the proceedings to a halt faster than an impromptu marching band-version of Twist and Shout) and hopefully it won't continue.

The scuttletweet skews towards injured, the reactionary conjecture almost laughable at this time. Worth noting is Frasor's sky high early season BABIP of .467, a number sure to make any BP tosser proud. Hopefully somebody within Castle Ted can set Frasor right; as one of the longest-serving Jays, fans should fight the urge to toss him aside so quickly.

Not to parrot Wilner too closely, but assuming Jason Frasor and/or Scott Downs are now officially useless is plain crazytalk. They obviously aren't firing on all cylinders, and perhaps 5+ years of warming up and high-leverage stress and strain are starting to show, but it doesn't all come apart at once like this. The ground balls will return, the walks will dissipate, these two bullpen stalwarts will ride off into the distance at the end of the year knowing they pitched really well as members of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Brett Cecil - Bat Missing Fool

Man, Brett Cecil is pretty awesome. He'll battle the long ball forever since he isn't really overpowering, but he pitched his ass off on Saturday night. 11 big whiffs (8 ks) in less than 7 innings of work is a welcome change to the guy with spotty control in 2009.

The Jays starters — Brandon Morrow excepted — continue to throw strikes at very impressive rates, walking only 2.75 hitters per 9. If this is the legacy of Bruce Walton, he'll be a rich, rich man in a very short period of time.

Interesting to hear Cecil interviewed on Wilner's pregame show*, discussing his new change, a discovery from his thumb-slicing incident in the spring. Cecil marveled at the effectiveness of the pitch when thrown at full power, rather than making a conscious effort to heave it at 80% effectiveness. Call me crazy, but that just makes sense. The grip on the ball should slow it down as much as you'd need, shouldn't it? Anyway, Cecil reiterated what everybody should know by now: the change up is the best pitch in baseball right now. Throw one or suffer the consequences.

* - I use the word interesting here very, very liberally. Cecil dropped enough "yuh knows" in the 2 minute interview to make me think I'd suddenly turned to HockeyCentral. He did mention he was a big Caps fan, so he's not perfect.

Have All the Donuts in the World!

So Lyle Overbay finally got a day off, after putting together his best offensive day of the season. I'm willing to believe almost anything about The Manager, but accusing him of punishing Overbay for complaining about his playing time last year seems a little extreme. Not beyond the realm of possibility, mind you, but far enough out there that I won't give it too much thought.

One would hope a man who prides himself on treating players the way he wished to be treated wouldn't stoop so low as to allow petty grudges into his professional decision making. Then again, there must be SOME explanation for the ongoing Citocity.

Music to My Ears

Ricky Romero, speaking to Professor Griffin, on the benefits of getting work in against inexperienced hitters.

“I walked in the dugout and I said, I guess I can't throw first-pitch fastballs to these guys,” Romero chuckled. “They're just hacking. I think it's good because you have to work on those first-pitch off-speed pitches and we threw a lot of those. A lot of first-pitch strikes. A lot of first-pitch changeups. Later in the innings we worked on fastballs inside which is good.”

Good is what it is, Ricky. I love the thought of Ricky Romero throwing first pitch change ups — for strikes — against right-handed hitters. If RR, like Shaun Marcum, can plant the seed of doubt into hitter's heads, leave them trembling in fear of when that nasty change up might emerge again, I'm happy. Good for Ricky and good for Griff for doing his typical Yeoman's work in Dunedin.

Kill Your Idols

It's pretty easy to lose sight of why people become legendary in the Internet age. When someone like Bill James, the godfather of nerds, starts doing lots of press to pimp his new book, the questions come from all angles. James makes a few questionable comments and the existing cognoscenti, brought to life by his exciting thinking, leap down his through and proclaim his day done. "James has lost it!" was a pretty common thing to read on Twitter last week.

Another example of "what have you done for me lately" thinking is, of course, The Sports Guy. Simmons does what we all wish we could do, and he's been doing it for a long time. Admittedly, the more he talks about baseball the worse off he sounds. His podcast with Jonah Keri is highly entertaining and a worthy listen, so long as you don't put endless stock in what Bill says. He seems open-minded to new stats if a little underinformed.

It's sort of a shame, but it's also the way the world works. The very basis of what the Sports Guy is began with him rejecting the tired, lazy work of entitled columnists at the Globe and Herald. He did things his way, in his voice. The new generation weened on the internet share his voice but they (we?) use it in very different ways.

Not unlike Deadspin founder Will Leitch, who gave Simmons' bombast a slightly more cerebral and understated tone, changing the world with (as we live it, anyway) by launching Deadspin. Incredibly, Will examined The Manager and The Blue Jays today as part of his season preview/book promotion series. He, you may have noticed, caught Clarence-fever, and we're officially viral. I cannot pretend that I'm not a little shocked, a little embarrassed, and more than a little excited.

Long live Clarence, Cito is dead.

Reuters photo via Daylife

Spring Malaise

It's your fault, fucking up the kids

It could just be I'm a little busy, or that I spend so much time wrapped up in the online baseball world anyway; but the start of Spring Training hasn't moved my needle one iota. Perhaps I'm just insulating myself against a summer of losing, scuffling, uninspired baseball played by green kids and two year stop gaps, I just don't care.

I don't care about the 30 or so arms they've brought in, I don't care about Edwin Encarnacion's wrist or Vernon's delusions of grandeur, I don't care about Brandon Morrow's arbitration clock or giving back Zech Zincola for nothing.

Blame Clarence, blame boring writers cluttering my mind and Twitterfeed with trivial news bites and lineup minutiae, blame the Olympic culture bomb, blame poor, unfortunate Rocco, or blame my dissatisfaction with all the swashes being buckled on Lost. Just wake me when actual baseball starts. Until then, I've got 2 feet of snow on my front lawn and a persistent, hacking cough that no amount of 25 man rosterbation can cure.

One Surefire Contributing Factor

Call me sappy and sentimental if you will, but any Roy Halladay news item that splashes in front of my face instantly gets my full and undivided attention. Read this post I wrote for Walkoff Walk a few weeks ago, then consider this quote from CC Sabathia on our once and future King (courtesy of Todd Zolecki):

"I think it will be a pretty easy transition for him," Sabathia said. "He'll like facing the 7-8-9 guys in the National League. The type of pitcher he is, I expect him to go out and be even better than he was with the Blue Jays."

Remember when CC Sabathia pretty much demolished the National League for 3 months in 2008? Halladay is going to do that for 3 years. Hopefully the Phillies are wise enough to trade Ryan Howard before it's too late.

Dear Vernon Wells

Hey Vernon, I hope you had a nice relaxing off season. Glad to see you finally made it to camp, hopefully a kind clubby places this in your locker next to your hideous new hat.

Look Vernon, this is going to be a trying year for you. Another one. Which is too bad, as you seem like a pretty chill dude who doesn't need this stress and strain. So I want you to do two things in 2010: don't let the haters get you down, and remember how to hit left handed pitching.

They both seem so simple, yet so unattainable. The first one is especially tough considering you earn nearly as much money as all your teammates combined. This ordinarily wouldn't be too big a deal as you could pay a team of midgets to keep your unwashed teammates at a distance, but every single Blue Jays fan knows how much money your earn per annum. As such, they rain hatred down upon you in any and all situations. That I can't back, as it will only make you bitter and withdrawn. Bitter and withdrawn isn't the public persona of the veteran leader of a rebuilding team. Fun-loving Vernon is better for everyone involved. If Fun Loving Vernon is the only Vernon during the twilight of your career, you'll be fondly remembered by Blue Jays fans.

You see Vernon, you're important to this town and this team, whether you like it or not. With each passing day and each counting stat accumulated, your stature within the greater Blue Jays organization grows. You've been here a long time, the longest time of your teammates. I don't want to see you go out like your boss, burning every bridge in town. Additionally, people in Toronto are so wet for Americans to see Hogtown for the bustling cosmopolitan metropolis it is, if you leave town and never come back it will only hurt our collective ego.

Ah, your boss. A man &mdash Clarence as he's now known around here &mdash who does you zero favors. The curious decision to slot you into the cleanup spot before the season even starts reminds me (not unlike every single moment of daily life) of a Simpsons episode. The one when Homer becomes the coach of Bart's football team. The lack of a true Nelson on the Jays means you're likely to stay in the clean up spot for the year.

It's a role you're slightly underqualified for, especially based on recent results. Is it your shoulder, Vernon? Does bum equipment make it impossible to overcome your pre-disposition to pull everything?

I looked at every pitch you faced in 2009 in trying to find the answer. I focused on your at bats against lefties, since they gave you such a hard time. A wOBA of .267 against southpaws in 2009? Against a career mark of .370??? How could that be? For starters, pitching you away is a great place to generate outs. To wit:


Nearly 50% of the pitches you faced from lefties were on the outside 4 inches of the plate. And how did you fare on those pitches? Not well. A BABIP of .236. Four doubles, 1 home run, and 8 singles. A ground ball rate of 66%. An 8% whiff rate. There aren't even getting cute, nearly 66% of the pitches are fastballs. Basically: nothing good.

To be honest, I don't know what it means. It might just be your shoulder doesn't let you reach them and your great love of the roll over exacerbates it. At any length, maybe a new approach (your third in three years!) will help. Maybe The Manager will whisper some sweet nothings into your ear and you'll magically rediscover your old form.

All I really want to see is a solid year from you, Vernon. Reclaim some good will among the fanbase and serve as a solid bat in the middle of the lineup, for no reason other than your "every other year" template is so maddening. Remember how to hit left-handed pitching and rediscover a lost step in the outfield. Remember to have fun and don't let mouthy jackasses from Barrie get you down.

Daylife and shit with the Pitch F/X assist to Joe Lefkowitz.

Clarence Relents

According to the Mayor of Dunedin, Cito finally backed off his pledge to hit Hill and Lind in the 3/4 slots, instead returning them to their familiar 2 and 3 holes. Says the zen master:

Even though I said I would try it in spring training, then I'm messing with their minds. Hill would do it in a second, but he's just going to put more pressure on himself. I want him to be himself. When Lind gets here I'll make sure I talk to him.

Professor Griff then awesomely points out that Adam Lind arrived in camp a few weeks ago. Cito doesn't need a lot of help looking out to lunch on just about everything, but it's nice to see Griffin get in on the act.

Speaking of out to lunch, the blog post I lifted that quote from is called "Top Four in batting order set." Guess who's hitting cleanup? Vernon Wells, that's who. With Bautista holding the inside track on the leadoff spot. Hill, Wells, and Bautista taking the most at bats in the lineup? That's a lot of outs being made right there. News like that and pictures like this aren't exactly creating a lot of baseball excitement deep in belly these days.

Thank God I've got Ichiro around to keep me going.

Image courtesy of these awesome dudes.

Burn the Book or Turn the Page

As stated many times before, both here and around the greater blogoverse, hating on Cito Gaston is a difficult proposition. So many of the memories are so positive, his kindly black dad aura remains quite difficult to hate. With Spring Training opening, he's going to start saying some typically wacky shit, so we need to be ready. We must arm ourselves against his wily charms.

Without spending any time around The Man(ager), we aren't privy to his mood swings or grudges, his distance from the team and associates, or any of the other negative shit that floats around but refuses to stick to Cito. What is a die-hard armchair GM left to do? Change the angle. Tear down the brand. Start again. Lose the moniker.

Cito is a pretty sweet name, but it isn't The Manager's birth name. His real name is Clarence, and that's how we're going to refer to him from now on. Clarence Gaston means nothing to you, he sounds like the could even be your slightly rude co-worker from Quebec. You'd have no problem second guessing Clarence Gaston. I sure as shit hope Clarence Gaston gets run out of town on a rail. Beat it Clarence, Cito doesn't live here any more.

It might be just that simple. If, in all of our collective armchair GM minds, Clarence botches the development of any of the precious young talent; putting a new face to the name might get us over the hump. It won't be easy, I'm having a hard time even finishing this post. But it is necessary. Riding into the sunset during a lost season isn't a fate befitting a manager of his supposed stature. Might as well grease the wheels of acrimony while we still can.

Daylife stole it from Reuters and I stole if from them