The Highly Movable Object

When pining for Fred Lewis lo those many months ago, I hoped he'd provide league average to above average play at nominal rate. I hoped he'd walk and steal a bag or two and maybe rope some doubles. As 2010 progresses, it is clear to see that Fred Lewis can do all those things, with his walk rate increasing. (Though all his other rates decrease.)

Remember, going into 2010 league average play out of the left fielder was far from a foregone conclusion. The Menchersons of the world were fresh in our heads; and the difference between league average and replacement level is much larger than we realize. And into this fray stepped Fred Lewis, doing an admirable¹ job. He hasn't set the world on fire, but he did a job very few Blue Jays were qualified to do. Until now.

At this juncture of the season, with all the moving parts at play, Clarence needs to sit Fred Lewis so Travis Snider can play every day. Not a popular choice — especially with Lewis, who seems to believe himself an everyday kinda guy — but this is the only piece that fits both a) the Jays future plans for their young players and b) the ideology of the current skipper.

Lyle Overbay is playing for a contract, meaning Clarence must do right by his veteran. Jose Bautista fills in at third base but The Manager loves him in right field. When healthy, Clarence can't get away from E5. Even without EE, Clarence often finds ways to keep Bautista in the outfield and one of the young outfielders on the bench.

Foolish as it might be to assume The Manager is in tune with the contract status of all his players, he has to know Lewis is due but a modest raise next year. If something has to give, it must be Lewis. League average is nice but this team has bigger fish to fry, as I'm sure I've said a million times. Travis Snider is a special talent and his at bats should be paramount.

Hardly breaking new ground, but this seems like the only way to work it. If Overbay must play every day, let him DH a bunch with Lind at first. If Bautista isn't playing right field, plug John MacDonald or McCoy or whomever in a third. Just leave Snider in left. Every night, every day. Tough lefty or shitballing righty. All Snider, all the time.

¹ - Admirable is a relative thing. Over his last 200 PAs, Lewis has an OPS a hair over .725. He's a streaky dude but that ain't too hot. Walks are good but the doubles have all but disappeared.


Reuters picture from Daylife

The Saddest Cowboy

Aaron Hill is struggling. Badly. I thought I'd help him with this handy dandy map to the plate, pointing out the best route as he looks so damn lost up there, he likely needs the heads up.

Walk up the steps bro, and stand by the white dot. Grab something heavier than your normal bat and swing it a bunch of times. Focus or relax or eat or love or pray or whatever the hell you need to do, then do it.

After the guy ahead of you makes an out, hits a home run, or walks (lulz!), walk up to the plate. Let the glorious strains of Foghat wash over you, make it a slow ride as your saunter up to take your turn. Maybe change it up, seek out a deeper cut from the Dazed and Confused soundtrack. You really — seriously — cannot go wrong with Black Sabbath. At any time of the day or your life.

To say Aaron Hill looks lost at the plate is an understatement. Dude looks completely out of sorts and that helpless feeling manifests itself in the saddest panda on the Blue Jays. Moping to the plate (and quickly back to the dugout) after doing his very best to work in concert with the pitcher's plan to retire him. Swinging at pitches out of the zone (which he sees more than ever) and making contact with balls thrown off the plate (again, at a career high.)

I don't know what I'm advocating as a plan to get Hill back on track. Just like great years, shitty years happen. Hill's BABIP is criminally low and, as a huge driver of his offensive performance, a little luck is due to come his way. Moving him down in the order seems the likely move but to what end?

Maybe give him a few days off here and there. I can't pretend to know what will snap his funk. Hill certainly seems like (based on reputation and limited video evidence) a good dude and a key part of this team in the future. I'm a lot more worried about his rebound than Adam Lind, as I believe Adam Lind is a far better hitter caught in a transitional year in his career (marriage, new contract and the associated expectations¹.) I just know that Aaron Hill is a fun player to watch, just not when he clearly isn't having any fun at all.

Travis Snider, Fred Lewis, and Confirmation Bias

During last night's gong show, Travis Snider legged out 1.5 infield hits. One was clearly an error on the pitcher (whom Snider trucked as gingerly as a refrigerator shaped man can) and another that found a hole. Travis Snider, it would seem, is pretty fast.

When a professional pundit makes an assertion that is nearly impossible to prove, he is likely to hear about it. Especially from those with an ax to grind against him. So Mike Wilner's personal belief — that Travis Snider is a faster runner than Fred Lewis — met with some resistance.

Fred Lewis has more stolen bases and a higher speed score (a counting stat, it should be noted. Lewis has more than double the plate appearances of Snider.) Also, Fred Lewis is a lean, athletic black guy while Travis Snider is a thick white dude who played fullback in high school.

It's a lot easier to assume Fred Lewis is faster because he looks like a fast runner. Travis Snider does not. That's more than enough reason to deride Wilner for making a seemingly questionable yet perfectly valid point.

I guess my question is: why is it so batshit crazy to suggest Travis Snider is a faster runner than Fred Lewis? Because of what you see on TV or because of what your brain conditions² you to assume?

¹ - Hahah, there's no context to a player's performance. DRUGS!

² - By no fault of your brain; that's just what brains do.

Fred Lewis and That Nagging Feeling

Will you look at the clock? It is time for my quarterly worry session over the future of Fred Lewis!

Maybe his combination of fortune and misfortune on Tuesday night is sticking in my head, but I (again) have concerns over the ongoing of viability of Fred Lewis playing every day. Tuesday night he picked up a lucky double after Scott Podsednik misplayed a fly ball, likely due to the video boards recently installed at The K. Later in the same game, Lewis laced bullet line drives on consecutive at bats, directly at the first and/or second baseman. He drew a walk so his day was a success; but still I worry.

There are positive signs in Fred Lewis' monthly splits. His walk rate rises each month, all the way to 11.4% here in July. His K's are on the way down too, with a season low 17% in July. Still, his swing rates and contact patterns show a man deep in the heart of an old fashioned Cito-ing.

Fred Lewis' out of zone swings are a career high of 27%, way up from 18/19% range of his last two seasons. He swings at more pitches overall and makes for more contact out side of the zone. Should we be worried?

Lewis came with the calling card of a patient gap-hitter, a speedy guy with a high BABIP. More infield pop ups and fewer infield hits yet he still outpaces his expected batting average on balls in play (.351 BABIP, .323 xBABIP.) There is a slump waiting to happen wearing number 15 for the Jays.

A slump he can't afford, considering the imminent return of Travis Snider and the large sunk cost of Edwin Encarnacion still moping around. As you might imagine, I'm pretty content with Fdot's offensive output thus far. The stolen bases are coming with a little more regularity (5 in July!) also nice to see.

Hopefully Lewis bounces back quickly from his ankle injury as he and Yunel Escobar make quite the tandem. Maybe, just maybe, having a legit number 2 guy behind him will free Lewis to swipe bags and take walks with impunity. Whatever that's worth.

Fred Lewis image courtesy of the goddamn Air Force.

Credibility Pouring from Every Orifice

By now you've likely read about The Fan's curious decision to "bench" Mike Wilner for the weekend after an "altercation" with "The Manager" during a pre-game scrum. John Lott of the National Post has the story and it's a eye-opener. To wit:

Friday, Wilner was absent from the game and his usual post-game call-in show. A source close to the situation said management had “benched” him for the weekend. It was unclear when he would return to his post-game show.

“My only comment is that I have the weekend off,” Wilner said in response to an email seeking comment.

The Toronto chapter of the BBWAA expressed concern to Paul Beeston in a letter, which Beeston promptly ignited and used to light his $40 cigar. When asked for comment on the matter, Beeston claimed he would look into the matter as soon as he finished gazing longingly at the full-sized image of Cito (in full 1992 regalia) adorning his office wall.

It isn't all that surprising that a guy known for petty grudge-holding like Clarence would ask the media relations arm of the ROGERS TORONTO BLUE JAYS BASEBALL PARTNERSHIP to keep Wilner at a distance, but it is baffling that any of the witless suits at The Fan would acquiesce to such pathetic request. The flagship station is clearly more interested in stooges like Eric Smith, Roger Lajoie, and The Enunciator David Alter; who read the commercial copy on time and bend over backwards to agree with every caller.

Wilner certainly has his detractors, and I'm generally sympathetic to him here though I don't accept his version of the events as gospel. If a reporter wants to hector The Manager to his face, that's fine. Publishing a "full" record of the confrontation on his company blog leaves him exposed for this type of corporate backlash. Criticize Clarence the manager fine, but once you start encroaching on the Black Dad Brand, then you're in trouble.

Peep the Segue

The Brand that is Cito Gaston is a tricky thing to pin down. Call me crazy, but were we not sold his ability to coach and instruct young hitters? A guy that would teach them how to play the game at this level while offering his patented confidence boost via consistent playing time. Which makes this quote from The Manager about Fred Lewis a little odd:

“I can see sometimes that he needs some work here or there, but I think that’s something that whoever’s here next year will address,” Gaston said. “The only thing we’ve told Fred is that when the ball’s hit right at you, just make sure you go to your strong side.”

Umm, why wait until next year? Is this part of the lose one now, win two later" ethos? Is the concern filling Fred Lewis's head with so much knowledge that other important things like "remember to come to the ballpark before game time" and "shoes go on feet" might fall clean out of his head?

Lewis has shown, on a few occasions, lapses in judgment or attentiveness; his calling cards back in San Fran. I'm not going to lie to you: I don't give a good god damn. His routes are wacky bordering on cringe-worthy in the field (and his metrics back it up) but I'm having a grand old time with the Fred Lewis Era.

At the risk of venturing off on a dangerous tangent, does the lack of "heady" play by uber-athletic ballplayers like Lewis and Alex Rios speak to a lifetime of poor coaching? Not bad coaches necessarily, but as if often mentioned in the discussion of black quarterbacks, coaches don't devote the required time to guys who make the game look so easy.

Why spend 45 minutes working on outfield positioning minutiae with Fred Lewis when he'll just outrun the fly balls anyway? Why fix the million moving parts and bizarre weight shifts in Alex Rios's swing when he hits one-handed home runs off his back foot? Why teach Vernon Wells to lay off the high fastball when he gets on top of it and drives it out of the park? A dangerous can of worms indeed, one Cito has no interest upsetting.

Shout out to reader Kevin for the tip on the Globe piece. Follow him on twitter @allisauce24

Fred Lewis Freedom Collective Disbands, Get Real Jobs

Just like the hippies who turned to the corporate world once they single-handedly pulled the troops out of The Nam, it is time for the Fred Lewis Freedom Collective to move on to bigger and better things. Unlike the hippies, we in the FLFC won't attempt to ban everything fun or take all pointy toys off the market, we'll just slink onto our next white whale. As it turns out, Fred Lewis has no need for us or our pan flute-playing, hemp-worn quiet wars. He fights his own battles, and fights them valiantly.

Fred Lewis is, currently, on fire. As a man with a horse in this race, I'm delighted. Lewis is driving the ball well and grabbing extra bags left, right, and centre. The walks creep up and the strikeouts, well, whatever. He's Fred Lewis! More encouraging news: his slightly swollen BABIP is normal for him. Lewis is the kind of player who sneaks his way on base thanks to his speed and all fields approach.

Because of my own self-interest in the success or failure of Fred Lewis, I take his every at bat to heart. I was a little concerned because isn't doing the Fred Lewis-ey things we in the Fred Lewis Freedom Collective come to expect (read: walk.) He's certainly provided a glimpse into the things that drove Giants fans to drink over the past few years (make the third out at third base, strike out looking times 5), but I'm reasonably satisfied that he gets a chance to play nearly every day.

The early season found money success of Fred Lewis and Dana Eveland are great signs for Blue Jays fans, for two reasons. It speaks volumes on the eyes for talent possessed by Alex Anthopoulos and his crack team of thousands. Secondly, it maybe-kinda-hopefully represents a change in fortune for the Toronto Blue Jays baseball club.

The Jays took the short end of various sticks for years. Beyond the futility of the AL East, they constantly underperform their Pythag records, couldn't score a decent reclamation project, and generally lived under a bad sign for years. A little good fortune can only grease the wheels back to respectability and full buildings. A little luck goes a long way, but the wily manouvering of Alex Anthopoulos pushes the old "you make your own luck" adage a little closer to truism.

Daylife and Reuters keep us alive

Jays Acquire Fred Lewis, Make My Day

What is this strange, alarming feeling? Is it...smug satisfaction?? Why yes, smugly satisfied is exactly how I feel after the Blue Jays went out and acquired Fred Lewis for cash or a non-roster swine to be named later.

If you recall the halcyon days of one month ago today, you'll recall me openly pining for the Jays to grab the speedy Lewis, on the outs with the brain trust in San Fran. And they did it! We can naturally assume the large army of scouts under the Jays employ have exactly nothing to do with this deal, instead it was Alex Anthopoulos lazily perusing the internet one afternoon in March. ME ME ME!!!

Lewis is as classic a "change of scenery" guy as you'll find. He plays fine outfield —with a knack for dramatic routes and lapses in sanity, I've heard—and should work out well on the fast turf in the symmetrical Phone Booth. His swing is sweet as candy though his eye is his calling card. Resigning Bengie Molina while Buster Posey rots in Fresno? You get what you deserve.

Lewis clashed with Giants manager Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean, which means he's okay in my books as those two guys are dummies. Lewis has the speed/on base combination of a lethal leadoff man, should Clarence play along. If Edwin Encarnacion is out for any length of time (he didn't play tonight with a bad shoulder), Fred Lewis might just get the chance to play every day.

Spoiler Alert: Fred Lewis isn't a major part of The Plan. Fred Lewis is, however, an excellent stopgap with enough potential and track record to insert himself into the conversation for 2011 if everything goes well.

Two extra reasons to be excited: hardcore Giants fans absolutely love him and are sad to see him go. He also comes complete with a tragic human-interest angle to make rooting for him that much easier. What more can we really ask of the general manager of a rebuilding team?

Image courtesy of the UPI. Hat tip to @22gigantes for the ESPN link.

Depth Charges

In stark contrast to the exciting news of high-priced Cuban imports is the battle for fourth and fifth outfield spots and, as an extension of that, the battle for Cito's heart. Jordan Bastian reports the job is basically Joey Gathright's to lose, something he's doing his darnedest to accomplish this spring. As Jordan points out, the possibility exists for Travis Snider to not make the team out Florida, opening spots for two of Mike McCoy, Jeremy Reed, and Gathright. Mike McCoy is an interesting player as we've all learned by now, but the other two? Not so much.

My biggest problem with Reed and Gathright is they're terrible baseball players. Replacement level flycatchers with zero upside. There must be better options for the Jays outfield, right? Turns out there just might be, in the interesting form of Fred Lewis.

Fred Lewis is out of options and out of time in San Francisco. Luckily for some team (hopefully the Jays), the Giants run their organization like JaysTalk caller with a bankroll. Which is to say: poorly.

The Giants don't value Fred Lewis's ability to produce level average offense at worst to go with strong to decent outfield play. The Giants will likely waive or trade Lewis for a bag of balls at the end of spring training, choosing to focus on journeymen who make lots of outs and hit the occasional home run.

Just like Reed and Gathright, Lewis hits left and can play most outfield spots. While he's not the most accomplished center fielder, he wouldn't be called upon too often to fill that role in Toronto. Lewis offers the same things as the other two, but better. Much, much, better. Even the most conservative projections for Lewis bring his wRC+ in just over league average, with the various systems all landing in the 102-106 range. Gathright projects in the 80s, coming on the heels of 45 wRC+ season. Reed rows to Dunedin in a similar boat, projecting between 76-87 wRC+ after his paltry 57 wRC+ in 2009. Enough esoteric numbers, how about some slo-mo swing porn?



Call me crazy or delusional, and maybe it's just the Giants jersey talking, but that swing looks enough like Barry Bonds to get me through the night.

Once reality sets in and I come to realize this move will never happen, I'll be sad but only a little. The job we're talking about here is the 23rd man on Clarence's bench, meaning whoever fills this role gets used with less frequency than a condom at a SABR conference. Fred Lewis is a good enough player that he should really play every day, and that opportunity is surely waiting with some team.

Then again, this is the Giants were talking about. You could dangle just about anything in front of them and they're likely to take it. I bet they'd do Jose Bautista for Fred Lewis straight up! Needless to say, I'd make that move in a heartbeat. Unfortunately, that heartbeat would be the final one of Clarence's life, as losing his BFFautista would surely be the last straw.

Fred Lewis photo courtesy of the Lancing Parish Council.