Teeny Tiny Doses of Context

Coming into tonight, the Jays bullpen ranked 10th in baseball for xFIP with the ninth most shutdowns, the eighth fewest meltdowns, the ninth best strikeout to walk ratio and the eighth best shutdown-to-meltdown ratio. They haven't been that bad, at all.

None of which means a damn thing when Frank Francisco cannot record a single out and poor Luiz Perez is left to face the Zombie Pronk while Rzepcynski eats cold cuts and cubes of cheese in the clubhouse.

I defended you, Frank Francisco! And you stabbed me in the back. You're officially dead to me. I would start a "Rzepczynski for Closer" movement but I don't think his poor left arm survives the season in that role.

The answer is obvious. The answer isn't pretty. The answer is the Sausage King of the Bullpen. Again.

I'm already working on a buddy film about Jason Frasor and John McDonald touring the continent, stealing jobs from overpaid and underperforming scumbags. It will be great, like Up in the Air but the opposite. Clooney as Johnny Mac? Sold.

Borepen

Far be it from me to criticize Alex Anthopoulos and his great love of compensatory draft picks. As you're read numerous times, it is a good bit of business to snag these picks before the league closes the loophole. AA and his crack staff did a great job acquiring both players in this boat and other decent stop gaps.

The pen is jammed with right-handed arms of varying levels of competency, all that remains is sorting out the roles and responsibilities. Which bums me out. The last few years the Jays have a few intriguing bullpen pieces, guys with an intoxicating mix of youth and plain stuff who I hoped would one day figure it out. This year's pen has none of that.

These guys all are what they are. An injury or trade might move them up or down the leverage ladder but expecting anything shocking from anybody currently slated for the Jays bullpen is foolish. David Purcey still owns a significant chunk of my heart though I worry for the quality and quantity of innings tossed his way.

Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel, Jason Frasor, Frank Francisco might pitch well or they might pitch poorly but all the steps in their career are behind them. They can either hold on to levels achieved in the past or decline. If they all pitch well, it is something. If they all struggle badly, it is something not too different. I guess this is the price to pay for the wise foresight of not overpaying for a closer.

Image courtesy of flickr user roopez123

Frasor Follow Up

The temptation to throw a million data points up on a graph to granular all over Jason Frasor's declining ass is strong, but unnecessary. We can sum up the former closer's struggles (flatter, slower pitches) in convenient listicle form and be done before Monday's endless dirge reaches the seventh inning stretch.

• Fastball velocity down nearly 2 mph.
  
• "Change Up" (splitter/fosh) velocity down 1.5 mph.
  
• Fastball horizontal movement down 1.5 inches.
  
• Splitter/Fosh/Change Up vertical movement down 2 inches
  
• Fastball "rise" decreased by 2 inches.

One and a half inches of horizontal movement may not seem like too much, but it represents a drop of 30%. A straighter, slower, flatter fastball is a pitch that is hammered. A slower, straighter, floaty-er change up thrown more often is a pitch either ignored or hammered.

Jason Frasor just ain't right. His less-than dynamic pitches are increasing ending up in the upper half of the strike zone too. He gets squared up well behind his career rate, cutting into his normally decent ground ball rate. His BABIP is absurdly high but throwing as many hittable pitches as he does, what does one expect?

Again I'll state there's more to Jason Frasor's struggles than "he sucks now." They'll find a tear or a flaw in his mechanics or get inside his slightly troubled head and he'll return to league-average. But for right now Bruce Walton can spare us all the bland niceties about bad luck and bad bounces.

Image courtesy of Reuters/Daylife, data from Fangraphs and Joe Lefkowitz.

Abdicate the Throne

Foolish as it is to completely write-off Jason Frasor, we have to believe something is up. He's missing a couple ticks off his fastball and leaning on his foshy thing more than ever. He isn't missing bats and it looks like he isn't nibbling as a dignified king should. More than anything, finally, he's getting hit hard. Lots of line drives and far too many base runners. It isn't fun to watch (he grinds the proceedings to a halt faster than an impromptu marching band-version of Twist and Shout) and hopefully it won't continue.

The scuttletweet skews towards injured, the reactionary conjecture almost laughable at this time. Worth noting is Frasor's sky high early season BABIP of .467, a number sure to make any BP tosser proud. Hopefully somebody within Castle Ted can set Frasor right; as one of the longest-serving Jays, fans should fight the urge to toss him aside so quickly.

Not to parrot Wilner too closely, but assuming Jason Frasor and/or Scott Downs are now officially useless is plain crazytalk. They obviously aren't firing on all cylinders, and perhaps 5+ years of warming up and high-leverage stress and strain are starting to show, but it doesn't all come apart at once like this. The ground balls will return, the walks will dissipate, these two bullpen stalwarts will ride off into the distance at the end of the year knowing they pitched really well as members of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Brett Cecil - Bat Missing Fool

Man, Brett Cecil is pretty awesome. He'll battle the long ball forever since he isn't really overpowering, but he pitched his ass off on Saturday night. 11 big whiffs (8 ks) in less than 7 innings of work is a welcome change to the guy with spotty control in 2009.

The Jays starters — Brandon Morrow excepted — continue to throw strikes at very impressive rates, walking only 2.75 hitters per 9. If this is the legacy of Bruce Walton, he'll be a rich, rich man in a very short period of time.

Interesting to hear Cecil interviewed on Wilner's pregame show*, discussing his new change, a discovery from his thumb-slicing incident in the spring. Cecil marveled at the effectiveness of the pitch when thrown at full power, rather than making a conscious effort to heave it at 80% effectiveness. Call me crazy, but that just makes sense. The grip on the ball should slow it down as much as you'd need, shouldn't it? Anyway, Cecil reiterated what everybody should know by now: the change up is the best pitch in baseball right now. Throw one or suffer the consequences.

* - I use the word interesting here very, very liberally. Cecil dropped enough "yuh knows" in the 2 minute interview to make me think I'd suddenly turned to HockeyCentral. He did mention he was a big Caps fan, so he's not perfect.

Have All the Donuts in the World!

So Lyle Overbay finally got a day off, after putting together his best offensive day of the season. I'm willing to believe almost anything about The Manager, but accusing him of punishing Overbay for complaining about his playing time last year seems a little extreme. Not beyond the realm of possibility, mind you, but far enough out there that I won't give it too much thought.

One would hope a man who prides himself on treating players the way he wished to be treated wouldn't stoop so low as to allow petty grudges into his professional decision making. Then again, there must be SOME explanation for the ongoing Citocity.

Process Versus Result

If I could play the role of apologist for a few more minutes, I'd point out that once again Jason Frasor pitched fine. The pitch he threw to Teahen wasn't quite as bad as he described, but it wasn't much better.

Worse than the pitch itself was whom he threw it to. Mark Teahen is a lot of things—Canadian not among them—and opposite field power threat counts as one of his skills. Teahen hit 8 opposite field home runs last, 7 the year before. Mark Teahen, in fact, is an excellent opposite field hitter, which makes Frasor's belt high offering that much worse.



Again, not terrible but not great. A little higher or a little further outside and I think he's fine. But it wasn't and now "everyone" believes Jason Frasor should lose his job. And he probably will. There are too many worthy candidates waiting behind him to pick up some cool counting stats that agents love so much.

One area of Frasor's game worth watching is his whiffs, or lack thereof. In 5 outings this year, Frasor's only missed 4 bats. In 88 pitches. Quite early to sound the alarm bells, and missing tonnes of bats was never The Sausage King's thing, but it's still worth watching. Frasor living and dying on the outside corner coupled with his pained, distressed facial expressions don't instill a great deal of confidence.

The Fastball Travails of the Toronto Blue Jays

Will be an interesting subplot during this 2010 season. Early on, Jake Peavy fed the Jays a steady diet of heaters and sinkers, many of which they sent flying in the opposite direction. Later in the game, however, the fastballs increased in pedigree and the swinging strikes a-followed.

Matt Thornton, who might be the best left-handed reliever in the American League, threw fastballs in places you can't hit them, even if know it is coming. (And want it to!) Sergio Santos came in firing smoke before deftly switching gears to the slider. The Jays were so geared up they whiffed like madmen at the 85 mph spinner. Bobby Jenks and J.J. Putz may not be who they once were, but there hard-throwing ways and scintilla of offspeed control took care of the Jays through the late innings.

Will it continue? It might be lazy and convenient of me to say so, but the Jays can be a powerful offensive team but they can also be an easy team to pitch. One junkballing lefty or control specialist might keep them tied in knots for days. God help them when they have to face Wakefield.

Opening Day - Spectacle.

Read my thoughts about Opening Day over at The Blue Jay Hunter. Because Ian's awesome and works hard for his money. I very well could be bitter because I was home liveblogging while everyone else got to drink beer. Not that I was home liveblogging in lieu of drinking beer, I would've been home anyway. If anyone ever asks you if you want to have kids; say no. Then turn a chair upside-down and jump on each leg crotch first. You'll thank me eventually.

Pitch F/X data courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Cruel to be Kind

This isn't going to be a normal baseball season. Look no further than the next sentence (fragment, I'm a hack after all) you read: leave Cito alone.

This season, as we've all said in various round tables or comment sections or social media outlets, isn't about wins and losses. It's about growth and development and kittens & puppies frolicking together on clouds fluffier and whiter than Brett Wallace's thighs. As such, sweating the minutia of Citocity isn't worth the effort.

The games are ultimately trivial and The Zombie Cito wasn't reanimated overnight. Guys are going to get their chance to hit and odd match-ups in the name of teambuilding are likely S.O.P. all year long. We all want to see Randy Ruiz get many more at bats than he will, but I'd rather see him get real PAs with real prep, not tossed off pinch hits in high leverage situations.

"Lose one to win two later" has a whole new meaning in 2010; those two wins are on indefinite layaway; don't expect Clarence to collect during his victory lap. Let Cito build their confidence or free agency cases or whatever a player's manager is supposed to do.

One Game Closer Controversy

Nice to see far too many people who know far better all set to hang Jason Frasor after one "bad" outing. He isn't good under pressure? Funny, as Baseball Reference and I see it, Jason Frasor struck out 21 while walking only 6 in high leverage situations last year. He held batters to a .620 OPS in giving up 1 home run and 1 double. What a bum.

The fifteen-hop infield single, the sliced/blooped seeing eye double, the intentional walk to one of baseball's least successful batters; those things are not controlled by the pitcher. He's fine. He's better than fine, he's a damn good reliever with a stellar track record and decent potential trade value. He'll throw the ball just like a dozen more times and record 12 saves. Relax.

Lind Deal Late Pass

Good for both parties. Let's remember something about Adam Lind, something less than comfortable. Adam Lind is a less patient, less powerful version of Adam Dunn. He's a DH who may have already put up his career season.

Those aren't slights on Lind, they're reasonable facsimiles of the truth. He's a great hitter and the team options make the deals convenient, but I don't believe for a second that the Jays somehow picked Adam Lind's pocket.

Speaking of picking pockets and/or cherries, how long until this creeping feeling the Jays gave up on Alex Rios too early goes away?

Saturday News Noms

When news is what you're after, ordinarily GROF isn't the place to come. But I'm stuck at work tonight and a few quasi-interesting news bits leaked from Twitter like braincells from a Red Patch Boy.

Eye Chart Tries on a Necktie

With Marc Rzepcynski all but assured a starting slot from nearly the start of spring, I'd all but counted out Brett Cecil's chances to make the big club out of spring. Not so fast, completely uninformed guy 3000 kilometers away from the action. Jordan Bastian says otherwise:

One battle that is not drawing much attention right now is the quiet competition between young lefties Marc Rzepczynski and Brett Cecil for a rotation spot. It has been assumed all spring that Rzepcynski — a favorite of Gaston's — was a virtual lock. It's worth noting that general manager Alex Anthopoulos made the near three-hour drive to Fort Myers on Friday to watch Cecil spin a strong five-inning outing.

Alex Anthopoulos must have some dirty-ass fingernails from turning over every last stone in Florida. Driving for three hours in Florida counts as six hours of driving in Ontario, as every mile driven along a Florida highway brings you that much closer to death.

Before I get my Brett Cecil boner all engorged once again, I might balk at the viability of this battle. Unless Rzepcynski forgot how to throw strikes, I'd let him start the year at the big league level. It would make sense if, as Hugo at Bluebird Banter suggests, that Cecil is a part of The Plan while Rzepcynski is just a happy accident. Should the roles reverse and RZep starts the year in Vegas while Cecil's clock runs, would it be reckless it assume the opposite, that the Jays think they've got something special in Rzepcynski? Or is it just good old-fashioned baseball "who's throwing the best right now" thinking? The answers to theses questions say a lot about the direction of the Blue Jays; luckily I haven't a clue to those answers.

Branded!

The drugged up Dude singing in the back of the Malibu squad car is one of the funniest moments of The Big Lebowski. Though I'm sure Paul Beeston both makes a mean Caucasian and enjoys treating objects like women; I doubt he had a hand in branding Jason Frasor the closer. A report on Fox Sports by Jon Paul Morosi claims "Frasor is the guy they (ed. the Jays) seem to be peddling," attributing the quote to Bob Elliott's infamous "NL scout".

Could AA and friends market Frasor as their closer in an attempt to drive up his value? Would this even work? "He's our closer to start the season, YOU'D REALLY HAVE TO BOWL US OVER" hardly seems like the best way to extract maximum value for guy in the last year of his deal. Just as the rotational battles were likely over long before they began, I seriously doubt any team changed their valuation of Jason Frasor because Clarence deigned to name him The Closer.

Unless...added counting stats (like saves) could goose Frasor's value into Type A territory. If so, bravo Alex. You're a fucking genius.

Image of the last thing left-handed hitters of the AL East in 2011 will ever see courtesy of Getty Images via Daylife.

Relax and Take Notes

Far behind and out of the loop is where you'll find me, thus the two day-old obvious reference in the title. How about a quick-ish spin around the Jaysdial?

Brett Cecil and the Futility of Spring

So Brett Cecil chopped up his finger, can't throw his curve and now finds himself on the outside looking in? For some reason I really don't buy this. There is much to be said for the Grand Plan of AA and his cohorts, none of which likely boils down to "who pitches the best in three inning intervals in March."

Call me crazy or just a guy restating the obvious, but spring seems to be about health more than anything. As in, they know who's coming north and who's destined for the PCL or worse long before spring pitches are thrown in anger. What kind of business decision is made on the strength of 12-15 pointless innings? No good kind, that's for sure.

The supposed drama is good for column inches and motivating the players with the fear of God; there's no way one bad, chicken-impaired start by Brett Cecil is the lone factor between him making the big club. I suppose that goes for hitters, too. Can they (or should they) make big decisions based on the smattering of fine-tuning at bats in the spring? I'd like to assume the legwork on these decisions is long finished.

Frasor Rumors Persist, Grow Silly

As enjoyable and relatively valuable as the foshed-up Sausage King is; no way the Cubs trade a stud shortstop prospect for him. Sorry friends, as exciting as that thought may be, nobody, NOT EVEN THE CUBS, is that stupid. Frasor throws strikes and would do well for a year in the NL Central. However, losing a player with success in the low minors at a young age is too scary for most teams to consider, even with a potential first rounder coming right back in compensation.

Not only does it seem silly to overpay for a highly replaceable (albeit talented) right-handed relieving arm, it represents a move in direct opposition to current convention baseball wisdom. In other words, look for a shrewd team to cobble together a roster out of graying thirty somethings working on below-market contracts and somehow steal the World Series in about three years.

Wellness!

With a serious hat tip to Vancouver Fan Boy #1 Dave from Go Jays Go, I present a very brief video of the Tiny Tim Collinsicum working out in a funky, unusual way. I expressed my interest in these new style exercises a few weeks ago, it's pretty exciting to see them put to good use by a young guy whose very survival in baseball depends on getting the very most out of his normal human-sized body.



You can learn a lot about a person by their reactions to specific, divisive items. If a person watches the power-building workouts and suggests "yo, grab some weight or sit down fag!" then we probably shouldn't hang out. If a man prefers the blandly obvious Tim "Tom" Collins nickname to the brimming-with-hope-and-awesomeness moniker "COLLINSICUM (c/o Drunk Jays Fans) we could still be friends, we just don't see things the same way.

Straight Up Listikillin

• In the wake of Frasor trade talk, the value of Jeremy Accardo and Casey Janssen came up on John Lott of the National Post's twitter. The value of Casey Janssen? Nil. Word is he's a real prince, but one that doesn't miss nearly enough bats for my liking. He was pretty dreadful last year, I'll be amazed if he makes this team. Though the power of remaining options can never be overstated.
  
• In spite of what I said above, could Mike McCoy play his way onto the Jays? No fucking way! Too many incumbents in front of him, including Randy Ruiz. Over Clarence's undead body.
  
• Aaron Ciba = Rod Barajas in a younger body? Go Deep of GTFO!
  
• This is pretty great.
  
• So was this, as much as it could be anyway.

AP image courtesy of Daylife

The Downside of Tubed & Cured Meats

As any ball fan knows; throwing down a couple nicely cooked sausages is a great idea. Fun to eat, easy to cook, exciting to garnish.

That said, one must always be wary of sausages (Royal or otherwise) as they generally contain by-products, fillers and all manner of false food items. One cannot gorge himself on sausages lest his afternoon be ruined by nauseau and meat sweats.

MLB.com: NSFW

Really MLB.com? "Scott Rolen has a good day against the Yankees" is your video teaser and you include TWO charge-and-throws and a rope that, in a delightful bit of irony, is a home run in almost every other park in the league? For shame, mlb.com video team. As US Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart famously said:

I can't define pornography, but I know it when I see it.

Those two charge-transition-throw plays were pretty much as good as it gets. Watching as many Mariners games as I did last season, I could have confessed at gun point to believing Adrian Beltre fielded the slow chopper/roller better than Scott Rolen. I've since seen the error of my ways, and I'm a better man for it.

The Antidote

The rare Monday getaway afternoon game did much more than stop the Jays losing skid; it scratched me where I itched. Every nook and cranny of baseball nerd got a good seeing to Monday. Ricky Romero is awesome. Johnny Mac's home run trot going over with grace & dignity unseen since my first confrontation with a front-clasping bra. Brandon League settling down to blow away two hitters worth in upwards of half a billion bucks. It was only one game but damn if games like that make up for a lack of Meaningful Baseball in September. Almost.