Adam Lind is Moderately Unstoppable

If I asked who had the second highest June wOBA in baseball, would you answer Adam Lind? You just might and, strangely, you would be right on the money!

Lind's June slash goes a little like .429/.500/.976, good for a .604 wOBA. Which is insane, even though two weeks means not so much and his .423 BABIP and 43% HR/FB means more than not so much.

BUT STILL.

It is fun to watch. Adam Lind is Adam Lind again. Right? Maybe.

Long-time readers know me to be bullish on Lind because of his power to all fields. Then it went away. Then he was awful. Now he's back! Did he bring his all fields power with him?

Below is a strike zone plot (from the catcher's perspective. Left-handed Lind stands on the right side of the image) of all Lind's home runs in 2011. Two pitches on the inside part of the plate; the big tot he smashed off Kevin Gregg just this week and his Opening Day blast off Carl Pavano.

Other stuff: the bigger the dot, the harder the pitch. Ye olde legend lays out the colour scheme. Let's take a look.



Nice mix of offspeed and fastballs, though the bulk of them are right over the middle of the plate. But hey, what is wrong with that? A wise(?) man once said "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered." Which means...I'm not sure. I think it means take what you're given and do your worst with it. Right? Sure, whatever.

Anyway, I'm busting out an old trick - using the horizontal pitch postion from pitch f/x and the home run direction from Hit Tracker Online. Fun times!



Welcome back, Adam Lind. I almost forgot about that crazy home run off the left field foul pole in New York. Let's relieve it through the magic of embedded video!



No doubt all Jays fans are glad to have The Real Adam Lind back in the fold. To say the results this season are "encouraging" would be "redundant." He's great and it's great. Not in-play averages off-the-charts like he is right now, but it's fun to watch while it happens.

Reuters image courtesy of Daylife, pitch f/x stuffs from Joe Lefkowitz.

Jays Jumbo Gumbo

Sorry, not very many words available today, Grantland's using them all.

Adam Lind hit a grand slam last night but Ian from the Blue Jay Hunter focused in on the real story; why did Nathan Adlock point up as if the homer was just a lazy pop up? The question I want answered is whether in the history of baseball, a center fielder has ever looked back to the pitcher to figure out where the ball is... and then made the catch. Seems like a pretty pointless exercise to me.

2011 MLB draft? Go see The Boss Man's mistress for that. I prefer to look at what's going on with the Jays prospects getting close to playing with the big club. You'll be saddened to see that the style of clothing Adeiny Hechavarria has decided to wear, now that he is living in North America, glitters in the sunlight.

Speaking of prospects, Jays 1B prospect, K.C. Hobson, has hit 1 home run in 186 at bats this season in Lansing. Thankfully it was caught on video! Enjoy!

Are you aware there's a Blue Jays remix of Black and Yellow? "From ToronTO, we use to have Carlos DelgaDO." Amazing.

“It’s cool, you know,
hitting homers.
It’s nice.”

- Adam Lind, poet.

And finally, what would a Jays Jumbo Gumbo be without a video reminding you that your Toronto Blue Jays won championships in 1992 and 1993. Here we have Buck Martinez, working for TSN, interviewing beer soaked Blue Jays players after winning the 1992 ALCS. Dave Winfield! Robbie Alomar! JIMMY KEY!

(pic of Adam Lind popping out to the center field bleachers via daylife)

Dave Burrows is the West Coast contributor to GROF. He is able to bring a different angle to the site because he can stay up later. Follow him on twitter.

On Adam Lind's Swing

(The G in GROF also stands for Graph)

You’ll be forgiven if you’ve forgotten who am I. I’ve been off the grid for the last while fighting through a scary bout of possibly permanent dehydration. But I had to let someone know how much I enjoyed watching Adam Lind swing a baseball bat again.

This has been a tough season for me to watch. Sure Jose Baustista has allowed us to hold our heads high on the streets, and in the baseball blogosphere, as Blue Jay fans. And Jo-Jo Reye’s first win in however long was goddamn adorable. But when Travis Snider was sent down to AAA after not even hitting triple digits in plate appearances it was like a kick in the stomach to my enjoyment of this season.

For the past two years I have been telling my Vancouver homies (and myself!) over and over that it’s fine that the Jays are going to be just ok for the next few seasons. “They’re going to see what they have with some of these young kids and make a push in 2012” I said in my gnarly west coast accent. Then the greatest, and most rosey, of all Blue Jays prospects wasn’t given a chance to figure things out. What do we have in Travis Snider? Well, we did see he can play defense on a Major League level. That’s something I guess.

Then today, for the first time in a almost a month, I watched Adam Lind swing a bat. And it was beautiful. Bautista’s swing is great, no doubt. But it’s vicious and violent and full of hate. Lind’s swing makes you grin. It’s a swing you bring home to meet your mom.

I missed it. And not because he went 4 for 4 with a couple of what I like to call Buck Martinez mumble-yells (“That ball is hit.. and..hmmmgrrrffftt... outta here!”)

When you watch your favourite team tread water for a 162 games season after season sometimes you need reminders of why you watch baseball. Adam Lind’s swing was that for me yesterday.

And I feel good about Blue Jays baseball again. Though I don’t know how much longer I can wait for Travis Snider to be called out of exile.... #freeTravisSnider

Dave Burrows is the West Coast contributor to GROF. He is able to bring a different angle to the site because he can stay up later. Follow him on twitter.

Adam Lind, Genius

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox sports drops the puff piece of all times today, polling Major League players on who they believe to be the best player in baseball. Many sane ballplayers, Ricky Romero and Jose Bautista included, selected Albert Pujols as the best in the game.

Adam Lind and Corey Patterson don't play by your rules. They care not for Wins Above Replacement or other convenient boxes to cram your "five tool" studs off some South Florida assembly line. They see the big picture and focus on what is good and pure in the world. Namely, awesomeness.

Jays outfielder Corey Patterson named Ichiro Suzuki and Josh Hamilton. Adam Lind mentioned the same two players.

Josh Hamilton? Surefinewhatever. But selecting Ichiro! presents Lind and Patterson as Renaissance Men; able to appreciate the finer things in life. Kudos to them. I doff a Labatt 50 in their direction, but mostly towards Lind. Marrying a local girl wins you bonus points.

Getty Images photo courtesy of Daylife.

Reconsidering Lind

It wasn't even that long ago that I referred to Adam Lind's 2010 as a "season-long slump." While his numbers are disheartening when you take a broad look, looking at his season in chunks we see much more promising results. Promising in a bad way, perhaps. But at least we'd have a better idea of what Lind represents.

There is no disputing Lind's final 2010 line: .237/.287/.425. Good for a .712 OPS and a .302 wOBA. Down 100 points from the year prior. Of course, Lind did manage 58 extra bases hits but that is about it. But together we can make something of this. Let's grab hold of a passing arbitrary end point (the All Star break) and watch things improve drastically!

From the break to season's end, Adam Lind posts a downright respectable .267/.309/.498/.807 line. Include the entire month of July and you get and extra 20 points of OPS. Not catastrophic by any stretch of the imagination.

Despite the heroics of 2009 and the extensive minor league track record; by True Talent Adam Lind is probably a .830~ OPS guy. Combining Lind's good year and off-year you get a two year average of .825. A season-long number like that puts Lind in the top half for designated hitters in the, um, American League.

So case closed, right? Lind is a good not great hitter without a real position. Not so fast. As I've written before, I believe Adam Lind's all-fields approach and power the opposite way makes him a legit power threat in the American league. I went as far as declaring him slump-proof!

Looking at the previous few 'grafs, you can safely assume Adam Lind slumped at some point during 2010. How about a two month stretch, 200 plate appearances almost exactly, in which Adam Lind put forth one of the worst stretches in recent memory.

On May 1st, Adam Lind strode to the plate sporting his now-traditional .360ish wOBA and .200ish isolated power. 4 home runs to his name, he was in the groove. Fast forward two months; Adam Lind wakes up on Canada Day realizing he his slash line since that fateful May Day of .166/.219/.276! A .495 OPS over 200 at bats. How could this happen?

That's what I'm attempting to find out. What happened to Lind over this span that he can hopefully avoid. A 200 plate appearance sample isn't sufficient in writing off a 27 year old with 80 home runs in fewer than 500 games.

Let's get nerdy and see if we can't pinpoint Lind's spring struggles. First, a plot of all the pitches he faced in May/June. Fans of pitching inside, take cover!



When new manager John Farrell hosted his first press conference, he noted the Red Sox "had a pretty good idea" how to get Adam Lind out. Despite the oppo heroics of 2009, it sure looks like pounding the outside corner is the key to retiring Lind. Or does it. Consider below, comparing Lind's pitches by position during his nasty slump compared to his season on the whole.



Interesting. Lind actually saw fewer pitches on the outside third of the plate during his struggles. The next logical assumption (which may not be logical in any way) is Lind got a little pull happy.

Looking at the batted ball data (as best I can for this time period), Lind sprayed the ball evenly around the outfield but hit lots of balls on the ground to the left side of the infield. Did Lind run afoul of the teachings of Citocity? Trying to do too little with pitches thrown in the middle plate, going the opposite way with nearly every pitch he saw?

At this point, I'm going a long way to say Adam Lind had two crappy months and isn't nearly as awful as he showed in 2010. Lind experienced some criminally bad luck in June both by average on balls in play and home run per fly ball.

As I stated earlier, "future Adam Lind" is a lot more likely to put up strong (but not spectacular) numbers in the .850 OPS/.360 wOBA neighbourhood. The .390 wOBA we saw a year ago is what the kids call "a career year." It happens.

That doesn't mean getting him all the ABs he can handle and all the reps at first base he can stomach isn't Job 1 for 2011. If he struggles through another 200 at bat megaslump, giving the appearance of going out of his way to help pitchers get him out, only then might it be time to re-evaluate.

Lind's team-friendly, option-heavy deal provides the front office enough rope to bide their time and fairly assess if Lind is the right fit for the Jays and the eventual playoff push. If a cheaper or better option presents itself, so be it. Players with Lind's type of pop don't fall out of trees, but they're hardly endangered species either.

AP Image courtesy of Daylife. Pitch F/X data from the ever gracious Joe Lefkotwitz, splits courtesy of Fangraphs.

Lind Stricken with Virulent Anti-Citocity Fever

It's Friday and that's a good thing. The season is drawing to a close so the time for reflection and analysis is almost upon us. I hope to delve deeper into this issue more this winter, but for now I'll settle for a little theft.

Like most things you read here, I took this idea from the amazing Baseball Analysts. Yesterday Jeremy Greenhouse created spray charts and contrasted them from year to year. So simple yet so effective.

I took it upon myself to look at Adam Lind, a player I praised and believed slump-proof thanks to his ability to hit to all fields with power. Turns out he stopped doing that and promptly dove into a season-long slump! Read it and weep:



You'll notice the blue ellipse I added for effect. A total lack of hits to the left field power alley, a drastic reduction in opposite field home runs. Maybe teams got smarter by shading him to that alley, though he isn't even really making outs in those spots.

All in all, a thoroughly disappointing year for Lind, one I'm sure he can't wait to end. Expect a closer look during the long winter years, this will have to suffice as your nightmare fuel for the day.

Spray charts courtesy of Texas Leaguers, an amazing resource. Read Baseball Analysts every day.

Cruel to be Kind

This isn't going to be a normal baseball season. Look no further than the next sentence (fragment, I'm a hack after all) you read: leave Cito alone.

This season, as we've all said in various round tables or comment sections or social media outlets, isn't about wins and losses. It's about growth and development and kittens & puppies frolicking together on clouds fluffier and whiter than Brett Wallace's thighs. As such, sweating the minutia of Citocity isn't worth the effort.

The games are ultimately trivial and The Zombie Cito wasn't reanimated overnight. Guys are going to get their chance to hit and odd match-ups in the name of teambuilding are likely S.O.P. all year long. We all want to see Randy Ruiz get many more at bats than he will, but I'd rather see him get real PAs with real prep, not tossed off pinch hits in high leverage situations.

"Lose one to win two later" has a whole new meaning in 2010; those two wins are on indefinite layaway; don't expect Clarence to collect during his victory lap. Let Cito build their confidence or free agency cases or whatever a player's manager is supposed to do.

One Game Closer Controversy

Nice to see far too many people who know far better all set to hang Jason Frasor after one "bad" outing. He isn't good under pressure? Funny, as Baseball Reference and I see it, Jason Frasor struck out 21 while walking only 6 in high leverage situations last year. He held batters to a .620 OPS in giving up 1 home run and 1 double. What a bum.

The fifteen-hop infield single, the sliced/blooped seeing eye double, the intentional walk to one of baseball's least successful batters; those things are not controlled by the pitcher. He's fine. He's better than fine, he's a damn good reliever with a stellar track record and decent potential trade value. He'll throw the ball just like a dozen more times and record 12 saves. Relax.

Lind Deal Late Pass

Good for both parties. Let's remember something about Adam Lind, something less than comfortable. Adam Lind is a less patient, less powerful version of Adam Dunn. He's a DH who may have already put up his career season.

Those aren't slights on Lind, they're reasonable facsimiles of the truth. He's a great hitter and the team options make the deals convenient, but I don't believe for a second that the Jays somehow picked Adam Lind's pocket.

Speaking of picking pockets and/or cherries, how long until this creeping feeling the Jays gave up on Alex Rios too early goes away?

Leaderbeans

Here in the sober light of day, I'm much more accepting of the Alex Gonzalez move. It IS only a one year deal plus an option and his defense should save the pitching staff some outs. He projects as a 5/6 UZR fielder, which is good. Not too much better than Scutaro was for the bulk of the year, but better none the less. The one thing people are failing to remind me is where — especially after a Lyle Overbay trade — the rest of the defense is coming from. With an epic trifecta of defense fail in the outfield & the legend that is EE currently slotted in a third base; we're asking a lot of Gonzalez and Aaron Hill. If sparing the arms is the plan a lot of defense work needs to be done (coughMikeCameroncough).

One little click of a button threw cold water on my Mike McCoy hopes and dreams. They were exactly dreams of McCoy, but dreams of an white knight swooping in and stealing our hearts. It didn't HAVE to be McCoy, he was just the proxy. We all like to droll over his minor league line (.310/.404/.403/.807) but a sobering click on the Major League Equivalent button on minorleaguesplits.com and you see this ugliness: .252/.328/.320/.648. Wow. Not quite the same when you de-PCL that shit.

But Mike McCoy is the unknown commodity, that which modern fans cling to with incredible ferocity. Check out the prospect porn that runs rampantly through the majors right now. We in Toronto were guilty of it just last year. Adam Lind? Cast him out. I wrote a little more than 365 days ago that, if he was available as rumoured, the Jays should move heaven and Earth to acquire Billy Butler. At the time I said "I wasn't married to the idea of Adam Lind", especially with huge stud Travis Snider ready for his closeup. Then 2009 happened. Nobody went anywhere but Adam Lind and Billy Butler raked. Now Travis Snider is the one surrounded by questions, which is a shame because the answer to those questions is right there: Billy Butler.

Like Snider, Butler was a bad body player with a can't miss bat. Like Snider, Butler crushed all minor league competition and stormed through the system. Like Snider, Butler burst on the big league scene with a promising cameo, showing patience and pop. Like Snider, Butler struggled through his first full season, raising questions about his makeup and attitude.

Butler came into 2009 with something to prove, and proof is what he offered. 51 doubles, 21 home runs, .369 wOBA. A slightly better approach, one can only assume an increase in maturity, a more robust BABIP and off he went. Good news for Travis Snider and Travis Snider fans because, well, Travis Snider is WAY better than Billy Butler.

I don't need to remind you of his minor league numbers, they're insane. Even more insane when you realize he's younger than Butler. Almost all of Snider's numbers follow Butler's progression, with one year less seasoning. This doesn't mean we should go ahead and spot Snider 50 doubles and 20 tots now, but there is hope. There is a lot of hope because there is plenty of ability.

AA and the brass are making All The Right noises now with regard to Snider's future. "He has to play his way onto this team" they say, even though he has next to nothing left to prove in the minors (especially the PCL minors.) But we can all rest assured that the precedent for a guy just like Snider to bounce back and figure it out in year three exists. He's going to be just fine.

Image apparently courtesy of Porters Tahoe.

Aaron Hill, Adam Lind Pick Up MVP Votes

Awesome! For the most part. Whichever ink-stained wretch slotted Aaron Hill in as the fifth most valuable player in the American League, god love ya but come on. Hill had a wonderful season hitting the ball over the fence, but he's not the most valuable Blue Jay, is he? Roy Halladay failed to garner a single MVP vote once again, despite votes going to fellow hurlers Grienke, Verlander, Mo Rivera, Sabathia, and Hernandez.

The down-ballot stuff gets extra wacky on the MVP vote, as the 10 spots allow for lots of improvisation and/or wink wink nudge nudge bonus activation. Luckily Aaron Hill has no such provision in his contract, so the brave soul that tossed Hill a bone did so out of the goodness of his heart.

Nice to see Adam Lind MVP love, albeit on a smaller scale than Hill. Also interesting to see Kendry Morales, Jason Bay and Bobby Abreu rack up much higher tallies despite similar/inferior numbers. I'm loathe to do the player ABCD trick, but here goes.

1. 43 2B, 34 HR, 108 RBI, 7.5% BB, 20.7% K, .355 OBP, .569 SLG,.924 OPS, .263 ISO, .382 wOBA, +5 UZR, 4.2 WAR
   
   
2. 46 2B, 35 HR, 114 RBI, 9.0% BB, 18.7% K .370 OBP, .562 SLG, .932 OPS, .257 ISO, .394 wOBA, -8 UZR, 3.7 WAR
   
   
3. 29 2B, 36 HR, 119 RBI, 15.0% BB, 30.5% K, .384 OBP, .537 SLG, .921 OPS, .269 ISO, .397 wOBA, -13 UZR, 3.5 WAR
   
   
4. 29 2B, 15 HR, 103 RBI, 14.3% BB, 20.1% K, .390 OBP, .435 SLG, .825 OPS, .142 ISO, .367 wOBA, -11 UZR, 2.5 WAR

Needless to say, the MVP award is about more than just wins above replacement. I'm sure Bobby Abreu's influence on the Angels did increase his value to the team. That doesn't mean to suggest the gulf between this group of players (many of whom were surrounded by better players on winning teams) is as great as the writers would suggest.

That said, who cares. The down-ballot stuff isn't worth crying over, given how the right man got the award. Good to see the Jays silver sluggers getting a little bit more due.

In case you weren't sure ABCD = Morales, Lind, Bay, Abreu.

Sporting News to Adam Lind: Try Being Older

The venerable Sporting News announced their American League All Star team amidst little fanfare or shits given. The former staple of North American sports fans' bathrooms and place I used to play fantasy sports quickly announced their irrelevance by naming Hideki Matsui as their all-AL Designated Hitter.

An understandable choice, considering Adam Lind merely bested Matsui in home runs, doubles, RBI, runs scored, plate appearances, intentional walks, average, on base, slugging, OPS, wOBA, batting average with RISP, OBI% (rate of runners on base driven in) runs above average, isolated power, leverage-neutral win probability, wins above replacement, VORP, and meters gaily skipped.

Matsui did best Lind in walks, walk rate, K/BB, hat size, porn collected above replacement, games missed due to injury, AARP contributions, bats stared at intently, goldfish tended, sandals worn, panties purchased from vending machines, and games played in front of Sporting News editors.

To be fair the good people of TSN, they DID elect Aaron Hill to the team for second base, which is awesome. Hill lead American League second sackers in a host of categories yet one could argue Hill is less deserving of inclusion than Adam Lind. So you win some and you lose some. Consider this a major win as it prevented weasel-faced ratman Dustin Pedroia from one more second of undeserved attention.

Lindependence Day!

Let me make two quick apologies: firstly to you the dear reader for subjecting you to such a cheesy and predictable title and submitting this post a day late. I know one day is forever in internet time but I hope you'll bare with me. And secondly to Adam Lind, whom I've shamefully ignored this season.

There is no good excuse for the lack of credit given to Adam Lind, both here and the greater Blue Jays universe. I haven't used the "Adam Lind" tag since APRIL, for crying out loud. During the offseason Lind was a forgotten man after a quiet ending to 2008 and the emergence of Travis Snider, who took up all the hope space in my thoughthole.

Last year, as Lind wiled away in Syracuse, we at Ghostrunner on First dubbed him the OPS EXPRESS. We waited with baited breath for him to arrive on the scene and save the day. And that he did, until he slumped through the second half. We weren't alone in expressing some skepticism over Lind's credentials.

The numbers in 2009 speak for themselves, his .932 OPS and .394 wOBA are impressive in ways I'm not quiet comfortable with. That he's gone unmentioned around here says a lot about the way I think about baseball and players and I don't think I'm alone. We take the here and now for granted while coveting the youth and future, hoping they're the answer to all our prayers. Adam Lind as been that and MORE, a fuck load more. He exceeded any and all projections in 2009 while continuing to provide hope for the future.

Where does that hope come from? This. Adam Lind's Hit Tracker profile. Lind uses all fields with power. He takes what you throw him and mashes it at will. Let's take a look at the pitches he saw Tuesday and what he did with them.



In the first inning he waits on a curveball and drives it to deep center. Next he rides a 94 mph fastball out to center again. Finally he spins on a slider inside, yanking it down the line for cheapy. (Video of all three here.) Pure hitting mastery. What a pro. If I had code-crunching skills I'd do a graph like those found at the bottom of this amazing post, but I have no such R skills and the only guy who could probably help me is having computer meltdown challenges. So my breathless praise will have to do.

Update: I'm asleep at wheel it would seem. Dave Allen created the very graph I longed for today at Fangraphs. Check it out here. Plate coverage like a motherfucker.

Displays like this will keep my faith in Adam Lind. He won't hit 35+ every year but he is a true master at the plate. Sure, he runs like a 8 year at recess and plays the field like a drunk on a unicycle, but he can hit like no other. Well some others, but nobody we've seen around here since Carlos Delgado. The power to all fields, the quick bat. Yum. I promise I won't overlook you ever again Mr. Lind.

Thanks to the usual victims of my theft Daylife, Brooks Baseball, Fangraphs, and Hit Tracker Online

Hail Ants

Unfortunately life has kept me from seeing much of this week's games. Despite the scarcity of highlights, I saw Jesse Litsch leaving the ball where Jesse Litsch can't afford to leave it. And that was that.

The worst part, for me, about not seeing the games in real time is the dearth of defensive information. I know! Wilner mentions a great stab by Scott Rolen the other night. Did I see it? Of course not. Fuck my life! Worse yet, I own a PVR! Was I recording tonight's game? Of course not. I'm an idiot (FML).

So, I've decided to quit fighting off our inevitable robot overlords and let the machines run my life. For games I don't see much of, I'll rely on numbers and witchcraft to assign my Mechanical Goat of the Night/Simulated Hero-figure depending on the outcome of the game. I'll use Fangraph's WPA data and do it coldly and dispassionately like Charles fucking Bronson.

Mechanical Goats for 5-1 Loss to Detroit: Adam Lind, WPA -0.135; Jesse Litsch WPA -0.256.

Update! After some errors in the live boxscore last night, the cruel light of day has let Adam Lind somewhatoff the hook. The fly out/throw out double play has been attributed to Scott Rolen, much to my dismay. Lind still did the most damage offensively, but Litsch's punished mistake mean he took the most off the table. So go ahead and ignore the below paragraph.

Well isn't this interesting? I turn myself over my algorithmic foes and they immediately fuck up. Adam Lind's WPA is calculated incorrectly, as a quick scan of the play log shows him being dinged for an "out advancing" with 2 outs in the first. Alex Rios was put out on that particular play, so he should be docked the 0.76 WPAs, whatever they are. After Lind, little Litschy and his gopher ball delivery service would wear the Kevlar hooves. The robots tell me Vernon Wells's GIDP in the third with two on and one out was the single most damaging play of the night. Stop me if you've heard that one before.

Other Stuff of Varying Value

• Alex Rios has three walks in three games. I'll start polishing my lobo, the zombies can't be far behind.
  
• Travis Snider listens to Paul Wall? All the maturity in the world can't stop a 21 year old white dude from being a 21 year old white dude.
  
• The Tigers may not be a great team, but they do feature a lot of excellent right handed bats. What better place for the Jays to debut a young lefty for the second year in a row. Good luck Ricky, I hope your dodge bullets as well as Purcey did last year.
  
• I should have mentioned it yesterday, but they let us do a second edition of the Walkoff Walk Furious Five podcast this week. You can find it on iTunes if you search podcasts for Walkoff Walk. My soup recipe is killer!
  
• Any left coasters, alcoholics, night owls, or criminals looking for something to do tonight can join me as I live blog the Angels/A's tilt on theScore.com. Grab yer phone and comment from the comfort of your own slumber! Sadly, tonight's game has been postponed due to the untimely death of Nick Adenhart. My thoughts are with his family and friends.

Amazing Update

Ummm, there really are mechanical goats!!

Mixed Precipitation Thrown on the Fire

I like 6 RBI games as much as the next guy, but two of those hits were humpbacked fliners that happened to find holes. Don't even get me started on the pitch Halladay grooved to Inge. Let's have a little perspective here, okay?





FUCK THAT. PENNANT!!

Just so we're all clear, the road to rookie of the year awards and future stardom is paved with opposite field home runs. Big ones make up huge chunks of the pavement.

A few things to make us all smile: Aaron Hill ranging far behind the bag and Lyle Overbay driving the ball to the left field power alley, Alex Rios working a walk, and Adam Lind squaring one up for once. Finally!

GROF Exclusive: Adam Lind's New Years Twitter Feed

Like most young people that refuse to get off my lawn, up and coming Blue Jays slugger Adam Lind combined his always-at-the-ready Blackberry and his desire to record his most mundane thoughts into a Twitter feed. Seems Lind brought some of his boys from back home down to Vegas for New Years Eve. Unfortunately, he's since taken his page down (DON'T BOTHER LOOKING) but my unprecedented access will show lowly scum like us how the big timers do it in Vegas.



Lindiana's Finest





Headed home, we ran this shit. I wuz straight juiced last night! Next time I holla atch ya, I'll be chillin in Flo-Rida! LOL
10:27PM Jan 1 2009 from Twitterberry

Loks liek nobodee pulled, dis place dead NEway. 2:32AM Jan 1 2009 from Twitterberry

Man, don't these girls know who I iz? Once I get that arbitration paper, they recognize!!!11! 1:14AM Jan 1 2009 from Twitterberry

POP THA BOTTLEZ! Happy New Year bicthes!! 2009 Linds blowin up. Fuck the hattters, Imma big leagurr!!! 12:07 AM Jan 1 2009 from Twitterberry

500 for a bottle of Patron???/? We'll stick with Bud Lite. Hoosiers reprazent!!! 11:23 Dec 31 2008 from Twitterberry

Headed out 2 da club. Couple mexican dudes onna Strip told me Weezys gonna be there. We big timin! 11:11 PM Dec 31 2008 from Twitterberry

I cant believe we staying at the Trop. Big extenshun = Hard Rock Suite baby 10:41 Dec 31 2008 from Twitterberry

@Sniderman You needs to relax broseph, LOL @ watching tape on New Yearzzzzzzz 10:12 Dec 31 2008 from Twitterberry

Me an teh crew watching a little Entourage LOl @ Turtle, hes just like my boy D-Rob 9:59 PM Dec 31 2008 from Twitterberry

Imma get so laid tonight, deez ladies know how we do 9:14 PM Dec 31 2008 from Twitterberry

Dinn3r time * big steaks for da big dogz 6:30 PM Dec 31 2008 from Twitterberry

Just got a message from lil Jess, hes running shit @ Circus Circus 3:45 PM Dec 31 2008 from Twitterberry

Last nite was sickness, we gonna do it up big time this NYE! INDIANS FINEST!!!! 2:07 PM Dec 31 2008 from Twitterberry

Marcel the Projector Can See Inside Your Soul

If you thought the only benefit of the baseball stats revolution was nerdclusters emerging twice a year from their basement lairs to prop up the stripper and ear medicine industries, you'd be wrong. The real fun: projections!

Imagine the Farmer's Almanac if it were, much like the farmer and his children, on crystal meth. Take a wide range of rate stats, age curves, monkey blood stains and voila! Bill James accurately predicts Vernon Wells's slugging percentage to within 20 points! Add all the individual projections up, you can simulate the entire season! Why even bother playing??? These numbers make for good fun and the occasional fistfight, but how much stock should we place in them? More importantly, who should we believe?

The good men and women at Bluebird Banter tackled the Bill James and ZiPS projections earlier in the year. It would seem Bill James is quite the Blue Jays booster. Fangraphs also makes the Marcel projections available, and they got my attention for a number of reasons. Mostly because they differ from the other two so profoundly on two of the most important Jays in 2009: Travis Snider and Adam Lind.

Travis Snider	At Bats	Home Runs	OPS	wOBA
Bill James	448	19	.804	.351
Marcel	213	7	.820	.355
Adam Lind	At Bats	Home Runs	OPS	wOBA
Bill James	597	23	.843	.365
Marcel	374	12	.755	.326

Encouraging signs? They both agree that Travis Snider is a raking machine. Discouraging? Marcel only gives him 213 at bats, and only 374 to Lind! Does this algorithm have secret access to JP's inner sanctum? Does the mythical Marcel and tangotiger's mathematical machinations foresee a high profile DH riding into town, depriving these young studs of plate appearances? Also, why the disparity? Marcel sees Adam Lind producing 2.1 runs below average, while Bill James believes in 10 runs above! What about the 30 point difference between their projected averages on balls into play? Does Marcel believe Adam Lind will suddenly stop hitting line drives all together?


In all seriousness, this is a big year for Adam Lind. Much like Vernon Wells and Alex Rios before him, this spring presents itself as the long hyped phenom's opportunity to prove he belongs. In some respects, they all are similar hitters. Not particularly patient (though Vernon is much better at getting the bat on the ball), similar line drive and home run/fly ball rates. An outfield of the three of them wouldn't lead the league in home runs, but hardly a weak spot among them.

There is another player that comes to mind when I think of Adam Lind, a player that we can all agree would be a nice ceiling for a player like Lind: Garret Anderson. As the linked chart shows, Garret Anderson didn't really take off as a player until his 26 year old season. They're both left handed left fielders without much patience but enough pop to hold down an outfield spot. If Adam Lind can develop Garret Anderson's consistent production, I for one would be content.

So which projection do we put the most stock in? Which is the profit and which is the lunatic screaming on the streetcorner? Perhaps I will just take the optimistic route for each, project them both as 5 win players and camp out for playoff tickets. For argument's sake; Marcel projected Alex Rios as a .354 wOBA player with 18 home runs and 35 doubles. Rios actually put up 15 home runs, a not-talked-about-enough 47 doubles (tying him with Aaron Hill for the fourth highest Blue Jay total ever) and a .350 wOBA. Pretty accurate, more so than Bill James who overestimated Rios' OPS by 40 points. So we're fucked.

I Didn't Mean it Adam Lind

I'm sorry Adam Lind, baby I didn't mean it. I know you've heard about me coveting Billy Butler, the first of many young things to shake their OPS at me. I'm only human sugar, but you know how I really feel. Adam Lind, you're the only one for me.

Remember our courtship in the spring, how I longed for you? You were our WORLD Adam Lind, we knew you would come along and make it all right. We watched you from afar, knowing our time would come. And you did Adam Lind, you did.

The honeymoon phase was a long and glorious time, my friend. You kept swinging and you looked like the answer. You were the missing bat in the lineup, performing so far above the slags that filled that spot before you arrived. They meant nothing Adam Lind, nothing! It was only physical, they were just a warm body to hold us over until we could finally consummate our true devotion to you.

It isn't hard to figure out what attracted me in the first place. You came up through the system faster than a Merchant Marine on shore leave, turning all the boys' heads and making believers of us all. You stumbled once, kids makes mistakes, but we knew you'd be back. Everyone goes through that phase right after college. They need to experiment, they need to get out there in the world. Somehow those that matter most get left behind, but you always come back, Adam Lind. We know where your heart lies.

After the honeymoon stage, we cooled. The inevitable hangover set in, and we started looking around. It's only natural. Hell, we started noticing your sister at family functions, growing from her chubby teenage years into a nice little package herself. She really filled out! She looked good, but we wouldn't dare trying to pull off the unprecedented-outside-a-trailer-park Sister Swap?

But that isn't what we want Adam. You're the one for us, despite our looking down your sister's shirt across the Thanksgiving table. We'd NEVER attempt to come between sisters, especially two as close as you.


But this whole Billy Butler thing, we must apologize. We were talking with some guys at the bar, you know how those conversations go. We mentioned, casually, that we'd like to see Billy Butler come to town. We may have said something to the effect of not being married to you any more, and referred to you as a dangle piece. We didn't mean it, we SWEAR! We don't want to replace you with a younger, sleeker model. We hear he's on the wrong side of the crazy/hot scale anyway (at least he's white, guaranteeing not one single team will factor his craziness in any way).

Yes, he's younger. When the seasons start changing like this, everybody looks around, considers their options. We're always on the lookout for the next big thing, thinking it might wrestle us out of our winter doldrums. It's no fun being a known commodity, not with so much scattered ass freely available on the Internet and in our minds.

Yes, he looks a lot like your sister. We don't want to squeeze you out Adam Lind, we want Billy to enhance our relationship. You know your faults Adam, and you're no Rocco in the outfield. But this guy is like a Manny! We see a big future for you, for Travis and Billy in this crazy family. Uncle Lyle? There is still room for him too! I think it's too soon for your sister, maybe she should go back to the kid's table in the kitchen. I know I've been feeding her wine coolers all night, so fucking what? She's entitled to a little fun too, dammit. Stop trying to control me. No, I think YOU'VE had too much to drink. Fuck, your mother hates me.

Gone to Seed

They aren't kidding with this offseason stuff, are they? Jays news has completely dried up, sham postseason awards are being handed out (not to Rocco, which just ain't right) in celebration of players going from just okay to really good. Cliff Lee is determined to haunt my dreams.

What is left in Blue Jay land? Postmortems! Fangraphs Blue Jays season in review finds disparity between the Jays excellent run differential and their team balance. In other words, rather than being a balanced attack of offense and defense, the Jays underwhelming offense was covered up by their overwhelming run prevention. Fangraphs uses a figure called BaseRuns, a modified version of Runs Created. Using the Baseruns model, Fangraphs suggests that the Jays should have expected to win just under 92 games this year, down from their 93 win Pythagorean record. What does that mean? The Jays lack of situational hitting during the first half really hurt them. They scored and prevented enough runs to be right in the mix. Moral victories etc.

The CBC kicked it old school on their website; old school and arbitrary! Wanna do a season in review? Wanna keep your editors at bay? Nobody cares about stats or numbers or any of the real talk under the surface. Bust out the letter grades Sally, we're mass-communicating here!! I'll give the author of this piece credit, he slid some run differential in there, praised Roy Halladay's secondary numbers and quality of opponents. Seems like a guy that knows what's up. As for the letter grades, I'm sure the suits forced your hand.

Unsurprisingly, this brave scribe goes out on a limb and gives the Jays pitchers an A+. Cool man, I'm with you so far. What's next? Defense? Word. The Jays are a great defensive team, and you even used a sweet picture of Scott Rolen droppin' fundamentals in Spring Training. Right on Jesse Campigotto, you and I are boys. Yeah, Alex Rios is great, Dr. Hale agrees. Wait, what is this? Adam Lind is a solid young left-fielder? Adam Lind is a solid young left-fielder??

Oh Jesse, you had me. I was right there with you, and now you've gone and ruined it. Adam Lind is a lot of things; excellent to above-average hitter, Indiana finest, and a mediocre (at best) left fielder. He's the second-best up & coming left fielder of the two up & coming left fielders at the Jays disposal. According to the numbers, he isn't even as good as Shannon Stewart.

Stewart - 48 balls in zone, 43 plays, 14 out of zone plays, .896 RZR
Lind - 108 balls in zone, 96 plays, 17 out of zone plays, .889 RZR

Ugh. It's cool though, I'll let the overall A grade for the defense slide. D for the hitting, B+ for the coaching? The classic vote split, I assume. Good marks for the pitching coach, bad marks for the hitting coach? Nobody likes the good cop/bad cop routine, sir. B for the management? Alright, I'm sure you'll get some flack for that but whatever. Full marks to the guy in the comment section that announced JP should get an O because he's just going around and around in a circle. Gold.

Message Received

Update: This aborted, half-assed post has been somewhat fleshed out. It still sucks though.

As much as I enjoy beating Boston so fully and impressively, I still won't waver from my hard and fast date to start looking upwards. But I will make an exception: I will deem the season a failure unless the Jays can finish above the Yankees. That is something I will pay particular attention to, and will not accept any less.

Did you learn from your chiding Alex Rio? 5 for 6, and a Major League record tying 4 doubles indicates so. His said after the game that he was trying to be more aggressive at the plate, that he hadn't strung a few good days together all season. That would be swell Alex. Two or three simultaneous hot streaks would be a first for this season, and certainly welcome.

Remember one week and one day ago, when I essential said that Adam Lind is now at point where I expect him to hit mistakes out, not just hit the ball hard somewhere. He is now doing that. It is unreal to watch.

Slap-hitting John MacDonald is now to be referred to as power-stricken 'roid monkey John MacDonald. He's certainly holding up his end of the bargain, taking some heat off Cito. The team improves to 21-13 with Johnny Mac in the starting lineup. Interesting.

Stewart packs his shit, Jays defeat Tigers

Shannon Stewart was the latest victim of the Jays' season-long chess match with .500. The Jays activated Stewart from the DL and promptly released him. Oh yes, it's been an awesome season for him. The acquisition of Stewart eventually led to the release of Reed Johnson, which proved unpopular with a certain segment of Jays fans. Stewart struggled most of the season while Reed sort of did okay, making the move seem that much worse. With the OPS Express continuing his reign over the city and a cast of other mediocre outfielders on the roster, there simply wasn't room for Shannon. Oh well.

It looks like time for Gregg Zaun to get on his way too. In addition to losing the ability to throw the baseball that well, he can't seem to put the barrel of the bat on it either. Barajas looked the part of the starter tonight, slamming his tenth dinger of the season, a lot for this team. Shaun Marcum is returning to the form he showed before being sidelined earlier this season. Fucking right.

Don't You Fuck This Up Cito Gaston

Too much, too soon Cito. We were humming along nicely, Adam Lind was slowly climbing the order, getting his at bats without a sudden influx of pressure. But no, Cito, you had to slot him in as your clean-up hitter today. Why Cito? Why?

I know that Lyle Overbay's been struggling but still getting on base, and you've been reduced to hitting Brad Wilkerson 7th for christ's sake! Times are tough for this offense once again. But you've set Adam Lind up to fail. Adam Lind mashes hard stuff, but against Byrd he won't see fastball one!

Adam Lind can flat out hit. You know this and I know this. It is to the point now with Lind that I expect him to do better. In the fourth inning last night, Lind lashed a pitch down and in to centerfield for a single. My immediate thought: he should have hit that out of the ballpark. That is how quickly expectations rise Cito.

Meanwhile on the Farm
Rehabbing Vernon Wells and prehabbing Travis Snider both went 0-4 last night, Snider with 3 Ks. Ricky Romero struck out 10 in 7.2 innings, only allowing 5 hits. The Southpaw has a nice "fuck you" post to the haters that called Romero a flop at the age of 23. I will not hesitate to admit that I am guilty of Tulowitki-longing, but added a nice safety corollary of "I know pitchers take longer to develop." Which is true, unless they are David Price.