The Cult of Roy Halladay

Everyone here could do much, much, much worse than replicate every last thing they see Halladay do. On the mound or otherwise.

Not for nothing

• Mike Maroth is terrible. Send him on his way. Aaron Hill, conversely, is great.
  
• Rob Neyer suggests the Brewers should re-tool and make some moves. How does Brad Mills and Brian Jeroloman for J.J. Hardy sound?
• If I can get my slide rule out of the shop this week, I might take another crack at Alex Rios's numbers. Mop Up Duty did some good work on him in February, and I outsourced some common sense.
• I haven't seen Watchmen yet. I'm not good at life. Check out Let the Right One In if you're into movies that are awesome.
• I have my first of many fantasy drafts on Sunday. I'm dead in the water. Should be fun!

Photo courtesy of Daylife

Lloyd Reads JP's Shopping List

The free agent frenzy has now begun, and the only thing I feel is dread. Dreading a desperation signing, dreading a one year hold-over or perceived quick fix. So here is some valuable information I whispered into JP's ear and/or gleaned by peaking over his shoulder.

For 2009 and beyond, this is JP's To Do list:

• A young shortstop with a high ceiling, preferably named J.J. Hardy. Khalil Greene will do here too. There is are three years to fill before the in-house option is ready. Fill it properly. Possible cost? Brad Mills, one or both Romeros, even Adam Lind.
• A.J. Burnett to fall in love with the great city of Atlanta. It's swell there A.J. I've heard a lot of great things about the great Delta hub of the South. All the Coke you can drink! Just go A.J, they'll even let you swing the bat!
• An established arm who will eat innings on the cheap. This has great potential to end in tears, but Brad Penny will make it much easier to break in some of the kids, without the pressure of asking them to make 15-20 starts. Improbably, Carl Pavano could fit here too. Possible cost? $4-5 million guaranteed + numerous incentives. The more you pay the better it worked.
• A DH for 2+ seasons. If the Giambi rumours persist, it had better be for a very similar contract to Frank Thomas's. Not too much guaranteed money, but if he performs he'll be around for the ever-important 2010 season. Possible cost? Anything more than $12 a season here cancels out too many other possibilities. My thinking here is highly wishful.
• Humility. I think the stores in JP's neighbourhood are sold out. I bet he could get some on craigslist.
• A DH for many, many seasons. Acquire Billy Butler, giving the Blue Jays the lumpiest, rakiest dynamic duo in the league. The Royals seem to have fallen out of love with him, ideally bringing down the price. Very unlikely. Possible Cost? Mills or a Romaro with Brian Tallet for good measure? I'm likely on drugs.

Break the Bank

The clock struck horseshit this week, bringing another uneventful series of GM meetings to a close. Nothing noteworthy happened, but nothing noteworthy ever does. This setting is for laying groundwork. Hopefully much was laid, we'll never know. Tim Dierkes has built quite a cottage industry of tracking and aggregating these trade rumours, the bulk of which come to nothing. Take Troy Glaus for example. A whisper about his possible availability, a quick mention from Blair connecting Rolen in the Lincecum sweepstakes last year, but nothing real. Next thing you know, he's gone.

Armed with this convenient and anecdotal evidence I, with a delightful mix of cynicism and hope, believe the dearth of fleshy stories linking J.J. Hardy and the Jays is a good thing. For I believe he to be the ideal get for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Hardy won't be the answer to all the Blue Jays ills, but he is a good place to start. With the nearest shortstop prospect still better than 3 years away, the Jays need a more suitable stopgap than the Scutaros of the world. J.J. Hardy is all that and then some.

Contractually, Hardy is still under team control for 2 more years, meaning he would be a reasonably priced contributor during the pivotal 2010 season (more on that in the coming weeks.) Hardy is young enough to continue improving, he is big and he is good.

He, in stark contrast to the 2008 Blue Jays, kills both finesse pitching and left handed pitching. He's as patient as the most laconic Blue Jay (4.0 p/pa), has a lot of pop (14% home run/fly ball) without hitting a ton of balls in the air. In fact, his 2008 batted ball numbers look suspiciously like the Jays best hitter of 2008, Vernon Wells.

Defensively, he's awesome. Leading all shortstops with 72 out of zone plays, he amassed an excellent +19 defensive +/- in 2008. He was even awarded narrowly voted the runner up for a prestigious Gilded Leather Award recently on a website of high regard.

The Blue Jay he reminds me of most is his would-be double play partner, Aaron Hill. While that Fangraphs link will provide visual evidence of their similarity in age and production, I'll use their slash lines for simplicity's sake:

Aaron Hill, career (475 games) - .284/.339/.409/.748
J.J. Hardy, career (456 games) - .270/.329/.446/.775

Above-average contributors on the whole, well above replacement for their position with bright futures and supple gloves o'plenty. (How does a middle infield with +45 and +33 from 06-08 grab ya?) For the money, you couldn't do much better.

It is my contention that the JPs should pony up here. Short of Brett Cecil, nearly any (one) pitching prospect should be fair game. Three, even four years of Hardy will serve as an excellent bridge to Jackson. His GROFappeal is high, what with the pop and the slick fielding and obvious broad-bangery. I'm now officially in the tank for Hardy, and will be quite disappointed when it doesn't happen. Fire JP!