Depth

I've been away for far too long to pretend I'm an authority on the Jays so this post is a much more interactive one.

Albert or Prince? Move Reyes to 2nd! TRADE FOR VOTTO!! Blue Jays fans love them some big name acquisitions. And hey, sometimes I do too. But when Rasmus went down with a wrist injury and AA had to (chose to?) re-acquire DeWayne Wise my mind wandered from ballplayers with a WAR of around 8 or 9 to those closer to 0. Can the We're Finally Going For It Blue Jays of 2012 handle the injuries that hit every team in a 162 game season? Or better yet, do they have the depth to replace a regular contributor putting up Aaron Hill type numbers throughout the season?

What I'm asking is this; who do you see as being the backup plans for the Jays next season (being realistic) when the inevitable happens?

First let's get this out of the way; we all love the Prime Minister of Standing Ovations. There. Now let's be a little more open.

Does the guy who comes in 2nd in the competition for Left Field automatically get a bench job? Is anyone interested in copying the Rays and only allowing Shortstops who can play every single position on their team?

Please. I need you to reassure me that if someone goes down with an injury that DeWayne Wise won't be flown in from Japan next season.

Asides:

- I want everyone who has watched Kyle Drabek come out of the bullpen at the end of this year and thought, even for a second, that the Jays should convert him to a reliever to put up their hand. Now, on behalf of Drew's new born baby I'd like to say you're an idiot. The Jays need to make sure he's not capable of being a 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th starter before they even let that thought creep into their heads. But he will be a starter so don't worry about it.

- There are already multiple Brett Lawrie tribute videos on youtube. But somehow none of them have him mashing over an Eminem track. What's the point then, you know?

- Could Aaron Cibia be more excited about where this night is going to go?

- Finally, the fact that Colby Rasmus was able to answer this question without laughing out loud makes him a better person (liar?) than I'll ever be.

Dave Burrows is the West Coast contributor to GROF. He is able to bring a different angle to the site because he can stay up later. Follow him on twitter.

Drabek down, Stewart up

Is it okay if I officially have doubts about Kyle Drabek now?

I haven't had much to say about Drabek's start to the season. Sure, he's been God-awful. But who cares? This is a growth year so let him grow, I thought. Can't find the strikezone? It's the same size in Vegas. Dominating quad-A bats? Couldn't it instill as much doubt as struggling at the big league level? As far as this move goes, I don't have too much of an opinion either way. Let him stay up and struggle wouldn't bother me just as sending him down does little to aggravate me.

Let me rewind for a second. I used the word "dominating" in reference to Kyle Drabek which isn't really fair. A name used — with more and more regularity — as a comp for Drabek is Clay Buchholz. And that terrifies me.

The Big Sell Job after the Halladay was with Drabek as a near top of the rotation guy. Maybe not a Number One Starter but an elite arm. Does that describe Buchholz? He doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence in me, aside from his ability to woo D List celebrities.

The more I think about it, the more I think the comparison flatters Drabek. Buchholz posted reasonable huge minor league numbers, never striking out fewer than 10 per nine innings on his ascent to the big leagues.

Consider Buchholz's numbers in his first full season with the Red Sox (as a 24 year old.) 8.53 K/9, 4.86 BB/9 1.30 HR/9, 47.7% GB, 14.7% HR/FB. 6.75 ERA, 4.82 FIP facing 357 batters.

Kyle Drabek as a 24 year old: 5.94 K/P, 6.44 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9, 44.8% GB, 12.3% HR/FB, 5.70 ERA, 5.44 FIP facing 335 batters.

Put another way...awful.

Buchholz went down for two months, came back, then started the following year in AAA. When he finally made it back to the big leagues, he dropped two strikeouts per nine from his repertoire but also shaved a walk. His best season was, not coincidentally, the year his HR/FB sat uncharacteristically low for most of the season.

Drabek doesn't really have the strikeouts to spare at this point. Not in the big leagues (when he nibbles and pouts) but not on his minor league resume either.

I can't pretend to know what kind of pitcher Kyle Drabek might be when he "figures it out" but as far as comps go, I'm a little worried. The areas of the Fangraphs leaderboard that Clay Buchholz hangs don't exactly teem with front of the rotation studs.

What kind of future can Drabek provide? I'm a little lost, to be honest. Feel free to let fly with your most optimistic and/or bitterly pessimistic guesses for the future. I'm all ears.

Defensive Alignment

Nestled north of the border and shrouded in relative obscurity there has always been something fun about cheering for one of the teams on the short list for "Most Forgotten About In Baseball". Passionate but polite and gleefully reinforcing the Canadian stereotype of being laid back and easy-going, the Jays fanbase isn't generally known for being quick to anger unless you speak ill of one of a small handful of players.

It's not a long list but here's a quick primer about how to get a Jays fan to get on the defensive and quick.

Player #1 - John McDonald

How to start the riot: Mention any offensive statistic in existence 

Responses you can expect: "There's more to baseball than hitting! He's the best defensive infielder in the world! He's got a huge heart! Stop being a dick!" 

Explanation: We all love John McDonald. We really really do. He's got so much scrappy hustle and heart™ that we ran David Eckstein out of town for stealing JMcD's gimmick. If you're going to take someone to task for wearing a "McDonald 6" jersey get ready for a lecture about the finer points of glovework and a story or two about what a great guy he is. As my friend Sarah has been quoted saying: "If you don't love John McDonald, Fuck You."

Player #2 - Kyle Drabek

How to start the riot: Bring up the fact his WHIP is nearly 1.70 or that he's on pace to set a record for his inability to throw strikes at an MLB level. Or hey maybe mention that he was a part of the Roy Halladay trade. We can never hear about that enough.

Responses you can expect: "He's 24! He's got killer 'stuff'! He'll work it out! It'll be fine! Shut up! Stop talking about Roy Halladay or I'm going to punch you." 

Explanation: Please stop talking about Roy Halladay. We know Drabek was involved in that trade, Drabek knows he was involved in that trade, EVERYONE knows he was involved in that trade. We're doing our best to be reasonable about the expectations on this kid but damn, sometimes seeing him pitch is intoxicating. Intoxicating in that it starts off loud and fun but then the next thing you know you're throwing up and swearing to never drink again. Whether the opinion is to keep him with the big club and let him work through the motions, or to send him down to continue eating AA alive, the important thing to remember is to not let the Jays fan you're pestering know that you don't believe in his "stuff". His stuff is great. His stuff is unhittiable. His stuff cannot be contained or defined. His stuff is very rarely thrown for strikes.  

Player #3 - Travis Snider  

How To Start The Riot: Show video of him swinging at 2-strike off-speed pitches in the dirt. Say the name Mike Stanton. Mention that you think his progress might have been haltered by being brought up through the system way too quickly and that he benefited from playing in the hitter friendly PCL. Say that he's not ready for the MLB level. Prove that meats clash.  

Responses You Can Expect: "One handed home runs! Opposite field bombs! Mike Stanton is a gigantic freak aberration! Improved fielding! He was smashing AAA pitching when they brought him up! Baseball players slump! Meats Don't Clash!" 

Explanation: One day we all woke up on the internet and caring about baseball prospects became the most important thing you can do as a 'real' fan of your team. With this precedent set Jays fans turned to the only player in the whole system that we'd been told to care about by Keith Law. I hate to get all factual with you here, but as a card-carrying Sniderville native I have to tell you that it is a complete 100% inevitability that Travis Snider will one day hit 35 home runs per year and lead the Jays to several AL East titles. Snider is the inspiration for this entire post, as I was watching last week's live Getting Streamed On vlogcast from the guys at Getting Blanked and the level of snark that emanated from someone doubting Travis' ability was hilariously palpable. It should be noted that this is the camp I find myself in as well. I won't stand for you doubting Travis Snider in my presence. Travis Snider is going to be fine. We're going to be fine. Everything is fine. Stop worrying. 

Player #4 - Jose Bautista 

How To Start The Riot: PED's. Brady Anderson. Unsustainable performance. Due for a reality check. He's not Barry Bonds.  

Responses To Expect: "He changed his swing and stance! He didn't find the singular magic PED that turns you into Babe Ruth! He's finally gotten a chance to get regular playing time!"  

Explanation: Y'all jealous as hell. 

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There you have it. A quick and painless plan to make any Jays fan get their back up against the wall. Feel free to let me know if I missed anyone that gets you totally defensive or, if you'd like, prove my point on any number of these by getting really defensive in the comments about how you don't get defensive at all about any of them.

{Follow Archi on twitter here}
{Photo courtesy Bojuka Self Defense Canada}

Kyle Drabek's Day at the Office

You would be hard-pressed to come up with a better season debut for Kyle Drabek. He held off a lineup featuring lefty powerhouses like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jim freaking Thome. He dominated the rest of the middling, often pathetic Twins lineup AL Central favorites using a variety of fastballs and a few other things thrown in for good measure.

Taking a look at the pitch f/x, I realize it is very difficult to categorize pitches when they're largely varieties of fastball thrown by an inexperienced pitcher. The algorithm "learns" to better categorize his offerings but for now the Gameday-issued classifications are largely a crapshoot. The good men of Mop Up Duty have a solid breakdown of Drabek's start here, below you'll find my own Pitch F/X take.

I tweaked the pitch classifications based on my years of experience and/or using a magic 8 ball. Even after "pouring" over the data, I'm still not 100% convinced I got it all right. The only hit Drabek allowed - a single to Denard Span - looked more like a two-seamer than the cutter it ended up classified as. It's an inexact science, but what you see below is a lot closer than the Gameday version.


A really nice mix, 9 whiffs on 101 pitches is really encouraging. As are the 11 groundballs (!) induced by the Jays young phenom. I'd attribute that largely to the cutter he threw with extreme prejudice. Another look at the pitch selection, as best as I can figure.


A little bit of bleed between two and four seam fastballs, but all-in-all a pretty clean look. The cutter is a trouble if you're a left-handed batter, me thinks. Expect to see it up under the hands of those lefties when he isn't dying that darting two seamer over the outside corner.

The change-up gives a decent change of pace from the straight two-seamer, I wonder if he won't incorporate it more his second time around the league?

In the end it was a great start from a very important player in 2011 and beyond. The strikeouts were a pleasure to see, his lack of minor league K's give me reason to pause but if his new/refined cutter change that, the sky is the limit. Woo! Baseball!

Pitch F/X data courtesy of Brooks Baseball, doin' work for another season. AP Photo courtesy of Daylife.

Well That was Exhilarating

Maybe not quite exhilarating, but it was certainly something. Working quickly, Kyle Drabek at least made some friends in the press box. Though he was thoroughly "outpitched" by Brad Bergesen and got hit pretty hard (it seemed), there is a lot to be excited about when number 4 takes the hill.

Enough exposition; make with the colored dots, monkey! (click to enlarge)



Before I get started, I should note that these are the pitch f/x designations. During the broadcast (h/t Mop Up Duty) the pitch described below as a slider was outed as a cutter. You could then assume what I have labelled as a cutter is a four-seam fastball, making the final fastball a two-seamer. Let's just work with what we've got, yeah?

I'll be honest, I'm quite surprised the difference between the curve and "slider" is so pronounced. The curve is thrown hard and breaks dramatically, while the slutter breaks enough to confuse everybody (myself included.) The little-used change up is a "work in progress" as described by Bruce Walton.

If my willy nilly circles are to be believed, it looks like Drabek goes to his fastballs a lot. And so he should, if he's rushing two different-style fastballs up there at the same speed. Most Drabek scouting reports tout his "late life" and some of the chatter on Twitter confirmed this. The Pitch F/X algorithm didn't view the pitch as a two seam fastball but it takes time to get a grasp on pitchers.

How about a look at the strike zone? Swinging strikes make the grass grow.


Again, these are the automatically generated pitch types. What you can see is that Drabek does have the ability to throw that nasty curve for strikes. Always a good thing, especially when you're throwing a pitch nobody really has a hope against. The slutter gets tonnes of whiffs too. Never a bad thing, two bat missing pitches.

Good to see that the bulk of the offspeed stuff is down in the zone. Drabek did a great job getting the Orioles to keep the ball on the ground (11 grounders on the night) though they certainly found their share of holes (9 hits on 18 balls in play.)

Overall, a pretty successful nights work. Maybe the Orioles took advantage of the first-time starter wanting to get ahead by swinging early in the count, but the skills are clearly there. I don't think many of us could ask for much more.

Data via Brooks Baseball, image from TV Addict.

Gird Your Loins

Giving hope to the hopeless is risky business. Rest assured, they didn't get hopeless overnight. Many before attempted to bridge the gap, to put the fate of the franchise on their shoulders for the long drag towards the Promised Land.

When the hope grows so faint, the despair so deep that anything — literally anything — is enough to grab the hopes and dreams of a downtrodden fanbase. The knee-jerk reaction that Kyle Drabek was somehow traded straight-up for Roy Halladay makes an essential meaningless start against a woeful, cellar-dwelling opponent a quickie litmus test for the fate of the franchise.

Convenient and guarded as that statement may be, the emergence of Kyle Drabek means something to Jays fans whether we like it or not. The likelihood of him becoming a starter the quality of Brandon Morrow or Ricky Romero is even a long shot, let alone Roy Halladay. But guarded enthusiasm doesn't work for sports fans, especially in this moribund town.

Recent reviews of Drabek's development are more than a little encouraging, though a closer look at his double-A numbers reveal results not quite up to snuff with the likes of Brett Cecil. Can we draw many conclusions from this? No, I don't think so. But some might try to anyway.

Hopefully everyone can enjoy the first big league start of Kyle Drabek's career without attaching too much importance. God only knows the type of lineup card Clarence will fill out to support the young starter, though we can assume it won't be an airtight defensive ship.

One doesn't have to look much further than the home dugout to see what can happen to the best laid plans and the highest hopes for young starting pitching. Sometimes it doesn't come together as you'd like. I plan on enjoying the show and leaving it at that.

AP image courtesy of Daylife.