Be Ruizy

A few follow-up thoughts on Randy Ruiz and his ball-crushing goodness. I agree with most of the commenters: why not just run him out there to see what happens? What are the chances he's worse in the field than Adam Lind? Will he be drunk? Is his vision impaired? No? Then he has a fighting chance against our hero Adam Lind.

As promised yesterday, I examined Randy Ruiz's plate coverage. While not as well-rounded as lefties Snider and Lind, Ruiz appears quite adept at taking the outside pitch the other way with power. Or, if you remember his goofy foul pole shot off Joba Chamberlain, inside-outing a tough pitch the complete opposite way.

Once again, we're looking at the horizontal position of the pitches Ruiz hit out of the park. At the bottom of the image is home plate, the top is the relative position it left the bat. 90 degrees is dead center, 45 is the right field pole. I've shown Randy Ruiz in an awesome pink uniform on the same side of the plate as you'd see him. Pitches on the left of the diagram are inside to Randy.



A few things to note or remember: red lines where fastballs, green change ups, blue sliders and the pink line is the Tim Wakefield knuckler he waited on and deposited into the left field seats. We see Ruiz doing all kinds of goofy stuff here: jumping on an outside change and pulling it to left. Sitting back on a change up and driving it to center. The bulk of the pitches ended up in the same area of the park, that he hit such a variety of pitches there is telling.

While not as revelatory as yesterday's findings (to me, anyway), this only cements to me that Randy Ruiz handles a mean bat. That either makes him a fine stop-gap for this youthful team or an important bench bat for a contender. With The Manager's blessing there is no reason he couldn't be both next year.

Take it Ruizy

One thing I'm guilty of repeating ad nauseam is the old "don't believe anything you see in April or September". I still espouse this school of thought for my own good reasons. The level of competition is lowered as are the energy reserves and motivation levels of players, for a variety of reasons. When a handful of Jays regulars strung together impressive Septembers, hitting for power and padding their otherwise lackluster stats, I was skeptical. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion hit many bombs in September but, under my intense scrutiny, neither man's accomplishments quite passed the smell test. Not that their home runs and power numbers came cheaply, I'm simply less than moved by their combined efforts.

I don't think I've given Randy Ruiz a fair shake. I downplayed his success as a free-swinger; running into errant fastballs. A basic one-trick pony. I was reluctant to devote the time for the type of "analysis" I did for EE and JoeBau as I didn't believe Ruiz warranted a second look. But when word of his raking in the DR broke and reader AndyMc requested I take a look, I figured I would. And am I glad I did. How wrong I was on Randy Ruiz.

Before I shower Randy Ruiz with effusive praise, let's remember a few important details: he strikes out. A lot. Which isn't a bad thing in and of itself, but he strikes out a ton while only walking a little. Randy Ruiz hit home runs at an ungodly rate last year, sporting the highest home run per fly ball rate of any player with 100 PAs. That might be tough to sustain, considering his rate of 31.3% is 7% higher than JIMJAM Thome. The rest of the HR/FB list reads like a who's who of big time sluggers. Can Ruiz stay in their elite company? Let's get to the facts.

Scumbag	Hand	FIP	HR Allowed	HR/9	HR/FB
Jason Berken	R	5.31	19	1.43	11.7
Tim Wakefield	R	4.58	12	0.83	5.9
Manny Delcarmen	R	4.62	5	0.75	6.4
Ryan Perry	R	4.52	7	1.02	10.4
Andy Pettitte	L	4.15	20	0.92	8.9
Tommy Hunter	R	4.40	13	1.04	8.3
Dan Wheeler	R	4.48	11	1.72	12.2
Josh Beckett	R	3.63	25	1.06	12.8
A.J. Burnett	R	4.33	25	1.09	10.8
Joba Chamberlain	R	4.82	21	1.20	12.4

Uh, wow. Very, very few shitballers in that mix. Not a single shot off Jeremy Guthrie either!! Only Berken, Wheeler and Joba surrender homers at steady rate, though Josh Beckett coughed up a few in the second half of 2009 (five more in the second half over the first, in 30 fewer innings.) But the rest of the list is pretty legit. Tommy Hunter is a ground ball machine who turned in a decent 2009, Manny Delcarmen throws hard and keeps the ball in the park. Anybody who can put good wood to Tim Wakefield is either doing something right or something very, very wrong.

If I was to quickly don my skeptic's hat again, I'd see a lot of flamethrowers on this list and assume Ruiz saw a bunch of thigh-high fastballs from guys who didn't know enough about him yet. Guess what? I'd be dead wrong. Click to enlarge the image. It won't be the only thing getting bigger.


That, my friends, is impressive. A wide variety of pitches, thrown in every single zone imaginable. What the fungus is going on here!! Compare that to EE and Bautista's graphs. The difference is remarkable. Only two fastballs up and over the plate. Golfing sliders and driving change ups. Crazy.

Even crazier? Randy Ruiz's approach. Ruiz hits home runs no matter the count. In fact, five or Ruiz's ten home runs came in 0-1 counts. Get cheated on your own time bitches! He knocked two out of the park facing 2-2 counts, including an eight pitch battle with Tommy Hunter. Awesome stuff.

Want a little more boner fodder? Remember when I got all up in the pants about Travis Snider's plate coverage? Ruiz more than holds his own, but you'll have to wait for another day to see the proof. Trust me.

What does all this mean then? Randy Ruiz is some sort of hitting savant. There is NO reason he shouldn't see consistent at bats during a throw-away year like 2010. Worst case scenario, the league figures him out. The Jays scuttle him sooner rather than later to prevent AB deprivation among their future studs. Best case? He hits like a maniac all summer long, providing entertainment and perhaps a reasonable prospect at the deadline? He figures into the plans moving forward if he suddenly turns himself into a left field worth mentioning? His solid performance against right handed pitching all but eliminates him from platoon consideration, meaning that is exactly what will happen. Ruiz will grab a few at bats here and there while Bautista gets run out there 4 days a week. Ugh.

As always, praise to Brooks Baseball for pitch f/x data, Fangraphs for the pitcher numbers, Hit Tracker Online for all things tater tot. Reuters Image courtesy of Daylife.

The More Things Change

One year ago today, I celebrated one year of GROF goodness. That post leads with the rumors/whispers connecting the Jays with then disgruntled former Jay farmhand Michael Young. So here we are today, on the second anniversary of Ghostrunner on First, listening to more whispers and innuendo around a different former player.

Fortunately for all in involved, The Player in question isn't a spilled milk ex-prospect but one of the true faces of the franchise. Might the Jays make a nostalgia play for greatest slugger the team has known? At the risk of stunting the growth of certain prospects, yes.

First things first, no matter who AA brings in to flesh out the roster, ain't nobody taking at bats away from Adam Lind. He is as entrenched as it gets. He's no prospect; he's an every-dayer in The Manager's eyes. Second; while some commenters and bloggers alike worry about impeding the progress of legit blue chippers like Wallace and Snider, others rightfully point to Ruiz and Dopriak as stop-gaps all the same. Who cares if Randy Ruiz's progress is halted, he's Randy Ruiz. Do you have an emotional investment in Ruiz? Probably not. But I'll be damn surprised if you don't have at the very least fond feelings towards Delgado.

Another angle: maybe a glut of first basemen doesn't impact Wallace at all. As I've said before, perhaps the jury is not yet out on his potential as a third baseman. Taking at bats away from EE is hardly damaging and could end up a blessing.

Because the money will be manageable, and because controlling service time is right at the forefront of the new front office's mind, I don't think this is a bad thing at all. Which of course means it won't happen. Why can't we have nice things?

Thanks to Bill Kralovec for the image and every single person who reads, comments, emails, ignores, hates, enjoys, subscribes, dismisses, or even pretends to care about what they read here. I owe you all more than you know.

Odds, Ends, and Ugliness

A couple ominous notes and things I gleaned from the last few games. Spoiler Alert: I just dusted off the "we're fucked" tag. Look at the pretty picture before digging in the dirt. (Via the essential Go Jays Go)

The 2009/2010 Blue Jays are not/will not be good defensive teams.

Trading away Alex Rios and Scott Rolen will do that to anybody, but replacing them with Travis Snider (after a few weeks of infielder Joe Inglett in right) and Edwin Encarnacion makes this a bad defensive team. There is a lot of debate surrounding the validity and/or value of defensive metrics, so I'll cut through the shit and get to a difficult number to argue: defensive efficiency &mdash how well a team converts balls in play into outs.

From Baseball Prospectus, here are the Jays rankings in all of baseball since 2004.

• 2004 &mdash 6th
  
• 2005 &mdash 2nd
  
• 2006 &mdash 10th
  
• 2007 &mdash 7th
  
• 2008 &mdash 7th
  
• 2009 &mdash 24th

Ouch. I'm sure I don't need to impress upon anyone the value of converting balls in play into outs, especially with a young staff taught (forced?) to induce ground balls at the expense of their virgin tendons. If you're a disciple of Fangraphs, you already know UZR is no saving grace here either, establishing the 2009 Jays team defense a value of 15.4 runs below average. Bill James and John Dewan, only you can save us now!

I can't see how it will improve either. Losing Scutaro (as I expect they will) only drives this number down further. The three centerfielder outfield of Johnson Wells Rios from years gone by has given way to the three leftfielder outfield of Lind Wells Snider. 2009 seems to be a down year for Hill defensively, though his past performance indicates he can surely pick it back up. Even if the Jays DFA Encarnacion they're looking at nada internally or signing some sort of free agent and moving someone (Hill, as Wilner suggests) to the hot corner.

The umps didn't help matters the last two nights, but in no way are the Jays blameless. If Aaron Hill makes a routine throw; there is no blown call begetting a botched steal attempt begetting another blown call. Botched run downs, misplayed fly balls, they all add up. The only course of action to save the defence, nay the team, is acquiring J.J. Hardy and Carl Crawford. Another topic for another day, though.

Randy Ruiz &mdash One True Outcome

Hey guys, did you hear Randy Ruiz has a hit in every game he's played? Yeah, three home runs, too. He's playing for a job ya know. He's also playing with rabbit's feet dipped in barely legal cleavage sweat - his luck will soon run out. He's a nice story and certainly "doesn't get cheated", but his home run per fly ball rate is 60%! His walk to strike out ratio is 1:9. In his short time with the big club, he's profiled as a "free swinger." How free? Nearly 60% of pitches outside the zone, more than 2/3 of the total pitches he sees. He makes less contact than any other Blue Jay. In short, this won't last. Fun as it is, if word can even be bothered to get out on him, I'll have a better chance of getting within the court-order 1000 meter proximity to the local high school than Randy Ruiz will of seeing anything he can drive. I can drive too, girls. Would you like to go to the mall and try on somENOUGH.

While Randy Ruiz is a cute yet ultimately meaningless story (as far as the greater Blue Jays narrative goes, I suppose), the Jays inability to draw walks is becoming mildly alarming. Over the last month your Toronto Blue Jays pretty much stopped walking, drawing free passes at a slower rate than THE KANSAS CITY ROYALS. The Royals that just keep acquiring shitty middle infielders with no power but huge strikeout numbers. THOSE ROYALS. Lyle Overbay is the only hitter with the patience to draw a walk but that is all he wants to do. This is not what I had in mind when I coined the phrase Citocity, can someone please fix it? (so what if only I use it, it still gets to be a phrase)

Obligatory Travis Snider Positivity

Let me put the doom and gloom on hold for a second. Watch this video of Victor Martinez's home run off Brandon League (FML!). Go back and re-watch Travis Snider's home run from Tuesday night. Carbon damn copy, right? That, my friends, is a good sign. Why? Because Victor Martinez can fucking hit.

Victor's tater went further as it was propelled by the power of Kahuna, but the swing, the approach, even the stance is the same. V-Mart is a part-time catcher, but his offensive numbers are good (not great) for his career. .358 career wOBA (though two bad, injury-plagued seasons drag it down from good year levels around .370), 100 home runs, BB/K right around 1. I don't mean to suggest this is Snider's ceiling (he's still 21!!!) but the similarities exist. At this point, it's all we've got.