Tracking Aaron Cibia

J.P. Arencibia is tough to figure out. I've come to quite like him this year, his power is as legit as advertised. I was weirdly down on Aaron Cibia this spring but he's doing a fine job as a rookie catcher - playing every day for the first time at the big league level.

Looking at his tendencies a few weeks ago I found he has trouble with right-handed pitching. This obvious deficiency still didn't sour me, even though his numbers are slightly terrible.

It is true - Arencibia's putting up some rather unsightly offensive numbers (.222/.287/.427 for a .311 wOBA). The home runs are not only nice, they're his only saving grace. If I were an unfair man, I'd point out JPA's crazy Vegas stats and suggest anyone wondering why David Cooper isn't on the next flight back to Toronto do the same.

Luckily, I'm all about fairness. Fairness and balance. Which is why I'm prepared to make boatloads of excuses for Aaron Cibia, but with handy charts to make it seem like I'm not groping for a reason to defend him. Below you see a rolling 10-day wOBA of the Jays catcher's first half. You may recognize this goofy chart from Getting Blanked last week and Travis Snider this winter.

What this rolling weighted on-base average (calculated with 2010 linear weights, for which I apologize but can't do much about) shows is a rather distinct drop off when Arencibia took his first (of many) pitches to the hands. Catching's hard, y'all!


Again, each bar indicates a 10 game chunk of Arencibia's season. The orange line is his wOBA as I calculated it (.303) while the black lines indicate one standard deviation above and below that figure.

The magenta section is the first to include the games after taking foul balls off his thumb and knuckles. The red section is the first to include only games after that injury. The green section indicates games after the incident captured above, when he took a pitch thrown by Jonathon Papelbon to his gnarled fist.

Thoughts? Tools of ignorance, indeed. The beating taken behind the plate is nearly inhuman. Arencibia is a good hitter (for a catcher) and was likely to slow down slightly after a decent start but it seems like his slide began immediately after his hands started looking like an old dock worker's.

One source of concern that might not be injury related: when he went into the tank in June, JPA took his patience with him. Monthly walk rates of 8.4%, 8.5%, 4.1% scare me some. He did, however, manage 4 walks in 8 games in July (compared to just three in June.)

On the whole, I am pleased with Aaron Cibia as an everyday catcher. He's good...enough. But he's young and homegrown and soon to be pushed by Travis D'Arnaud (listen here as Keith Law suggests D'Arnaud is the better prospect). Competition is good because catchers are rare. Other than the bumps and bruises, JPA seems healthy enough to maintain his value until D'Arnaud (or Carlos Perez?) comes for his job.

Reuters image courtesy of Daylife

Aaron Cibia is the Mayor of Split City

You know what's awesome? Being wrong. The value of being dead wrong is two-fold for someone as ironically detached as myself:

1. When you're constantly negative, being wrong means things actually went well!
2. Something something learning.

Astute readers may remember me expressing concern with J.P. Arencibia's offensive potential. Quite clearly, I was wrong. Which is great, because it means JPA is having a fine season. Third among rookies in home runs and not a single pitcher died under his watch. Way to go JPA!

All was well until the calender turned to June. This month, Aaron Cibia's gone in the tank some. Tired? Maybe, but he's 25 and it's only June. Maybe the league figured something out about the studly catcher. Like, maybe, I dunno, he can't hit a slider?

Arencibia currently sports some pretty gaudy left/right splits. His exposure to left-handed pitching is pretty minimal but he's smacking it around with extreme prejudice. 5 of his 10 home runs came from southpaws in 1/3 the PAs.

His OPS is nearly double versus lefties, his ISO 200 points higher. The numbers are eye-popping but, we must remember, the sample is small and neither side is an accurate representation of his true talent level. (As a weird aside, he displayed large reverse splits in the his final year at AAA. Can't predict baseball!)

Wait, hold on. What if these splits are indicative of a pattern, of a hole in his swing or the league figuring him out? Arencibia's wOBA by month tells a tale (.369, .341, .211). You know what else tells a similar tale? The percentage of sliders he sees from right handed pitchers, also by month.

Arencibia, percentage of sliders (from RHP) faced by month

• April 11%
• May 18%
• June 31%

Which would be fine if, well...

Whiff rate versus slider (from RHP) by month

• April 18%
• May 27%
• June 52%

Having watched Joe Carter and Vernon Wells play baseball for much of my natural life, I'm pretty confident I know how right-handers are pitching JPA these days. For the sake of showing our work, let's take a look at all his swinging strikes versus righties this year.



Sliders and slider-shaped items down and away with fastballs up in the zone? You don't say!

While J.P. Arencibia is far from the first right-handed batter to struggle with the slider down and away, it is now his duty to make an adjustment. Arencibia's young enough that there is plenty of learning and/or development time before we throw up our hands and declare him a one-trick pony. God only knows the last thing this team needs is another platoon player.

The Company You Keep

No sense burying the lede here: I'm legitimately concerned about J.P. Arencibia. I fear his offense might not be what we would consider "acceptable." Not for anything he has or hasn't done, it is just the nature of the beast.

This doesn't have anything to do with his piss-poor spring, either. I really don't care that he has 3 hits (but 5 walks!) in 35 plate appearances. Spring is spring. Whatever. I am seriously concerned he won't contribute anything in 2011 and very little at any point down the road.

His offensive profile is a little scary: boom or bust with patience only showing up during his most recent season at AAA. Not unusual for catchers but I don't get the sense that is what Jays fans expect.

Catching is hard, this we know. Catchers who can hit are rare, we know this too. Look at some of the other Catchers of the Future who posted much better numbers in the minors only to fizzle at the big league level.

You may remember Taylor Teagarden as the guy who ruined your 2009 fantasy team. Teagarden put up similar minor league numbers to Aaron Cibia before making a huge splash during a September call-up. His offense never materialized so he's a backup for life. Jarrod Saltalamaccia was a prized prospect now onto his third organization. Now he's just another player with solid numbers through the minors left to fight for every at bat as he's yet to produce in the show.

Even Matt freaking Wieters hasn't lined up his minor league numbers with big league production. Matt Wieters!

The cause of the Cibians isn't entirely without hope. Brian McCann posted less than stellar (though still respectable) minor league numbers and continued improving as he reached the big leagues. He, of course, made his big league début at age 21 after toughing it out in the pitcher-friendly Sally League. J.P Arencibia just turned 25, a full 2 years older than Travis Snider. The smart money is on most of his development being already, um, developed.

Any temptation to compare J.P. Arencibia to Buster Posey is laughable as Buster Posey is a demigod mixed with a superhero mixed with Jesus.

Look, I don't mean to piss on Aaron Cibia. I'm sure he will provide enjoyable power numbers coupled with some unsightly strikeout/contact/outmaking numbers. The marketing arm of the team wisely put him out front this offseason as he's good looking and "well spoken." Expecting him to put up numbers similar to his MVP season in Vegas just isn't fair. In a perfect world his play will match his marketability but I just don't see it that way. I hope I'm wrong.

Surely the focus this season won't be his offense. Will hear a lot about his ability to "handle the pitching staff" and how the team just wants him to feel comfortable behind the plate. Which, to an extent, is important. Not, apparently, as important as giving a good target. Hey, it's Spring Training for us all.



Image courtesy of Reuters via Daylife.