Tuesday, March 8, 2011
He Just Needs to Play
Before Travis Snider took over the world as The One True Twitter Follow and Consumer of All Meats, he was just another up-and-coming hitting phenom. Emphasis on phenom.
The jury, as they say, is still out on Snider at the big league hitter. If you're a naive fool, I say. Snider's shown me things at the plate I don't think I'll forget, I just want to see him get the right number of reps. Injuries and stubbornness stood in the way of that, derailing what looked like a Snider breaking out last May. He really seemed to get his offense going and down he went.
It made me think - Snider doesn't seem like a streaky hitter to me, most like a guy that builds and builds and suddenly you look down and he has 25 home runs and his OPS is over .900. So I took to the spreadsheets and internets and here we go.
Taking a cue from the great series on player volatility for Beyond the Box Score by Bill Petti, I then used Devil Finger's linear weights to calculate Snider's wOBA for rolling 10-day periods throughout the 2010 season. It was fun, let me tell you. The results are below (click to enlarge).
That looks, pretty much, exactly how I expected. Snider scuffled then made incredible progress, then fell off. It took him a while after returning from injury but eventually posted some big numbers to finish the season1.
By the grace of God Snider stays healthy enough to get a full season of at bats in 2011. He is only human so he will obviously slump, but avoiding the lulls and timing required to get back on track are really important for the Jays in 2011 and beyond. Beyond, like what beyond. That's what we're talking about here. Right?
Thanks to Beyond the Box Score for the inspiration and Matt Klaasen for the linear weights yeoman's work. The game data came from Fangraphs. Buy a shirt yo.