Wednesday, March 16, 2011

So it Gose


Mind the hacky pun but I've thought a lot about Anthony Gose this week. Yesterday at Getting Blanked I compared him to Jacoby Ellsbury, which some readers thought unfair. "Gose is the number three position player in the Jays system!" I heard.

It is true, Baseball America ranked Gose third in the Jays system, also rating him as the best defensive outfielder, best outfield arm and fastest runner. Clearly Gose is a great natural athlete with, judging by early spring reports, the ability to step in and play defense at the big league level today.

To say his bat is a question mark is a little on the cruel side to question marks the world over. Gose is still very young and very raw so any leap to base judgement on his ability is misguided.

Consider, once again, Jacoby Ellsbury. His 2010 was forgettable but his 2009 was quite decent, 70 steals are fun to look at no matter how many outs he made at the plate. Consider for a second that Ellsbury was the Red Sox number one prospect in 2007, according to Baseball America.

At that time Ellsbury ranked as the fastest runner, best athlete, best defensive outfielder and best hitter for average. Yikes. How things change. Ellsbury is a league-average offensive player with exceptional speed, a strong arm and so-so defense. Uncomfortable as the comparison may be, I don't think it is wildly off-base.

Perhaps another comparison suits you better, like Michael Bourn by chance? Bourn is a great fielder (across the board) and a feared base runner. Ed Wade dragged him to Houston and Bourn broke out, posting two consecutive seasons worth more than 4 WAR each.

Bourn always sported strong walk rates, both in the minors at as a struggling Major Leaguer. If anything, Bourn is too much like Brett Gardner (a.k.a. the player we all want Gose to be but know he isn't likely to replicate) for the comparison to be fair. So I guess we'll have to hope for Ellsbury.

I'm interested in your reactions to this comparison. Does this excite or terrify you? What is Gose's absolute ceiling, in your mind? Are back to back 4 WAR seasons the kind of "high ceiling" Alex Anthopoulos had in mind when he acquired Gose?

Image courtesy of Reuters via Daylife.

24 comments:

  1. Yeah, I think it's exactly what he had in mind, given that the guy he was traded for was projected as what, 2-3 WAR at 1B?

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  2. I dunno if the trade is measured only against what was given up. Not to casually toss aside a 4 Win centerfielder, but to me high ceiling is 5 or 6 WAR seasons, lots of them.

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  3. I think the comparisons are absolutely fair. Ellsbury offers the best comp to Gose's skill set and Bourn represents the high end. If the Jays can coach Gose to either outcome, they will be in good shape (I am firmly in the camp that Ellsbury will rebound from injuries with a strong 2011); a 3-4.5 WAR CF is something most teams will dream of.

    In comparison, Wallace's upside is probably 2-3 WAR - at a position that demands higher WAR. That's not enough to help the Jays win in the AL East.

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  4. Compare Gose's age to Ellsbury's age in the minors. Ellsbury started in short season A ball at age 21 while Gose was an 18 year old in full season low A ball. Gose doesn't turn 21 until August. Gose has time to prove he's better than Ellsbury as a hitter. At the very least he has a better arm than Ellsbury ever did and can stick in CF.

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  5. I agree Daniel, I touched on the age aspect a little more in the Getting Blanked post/comments. Good point though, lots of room for Gose to develop BABIP-driven average skills.

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  6. Remember, Vernon Wells (let's not focus on the contract, just the 2010 numbers) produced a 4.0 WAR; while Ellsbury/Bourn/Gose composition of WAR may be different (less power, more SBs, better defense), I think we'd all be happy with a CF that consistently produces that level of output.

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  7. Time to prove he's better than Ellsbury as a hitter.

    Much as I would love to see this, let's first build time into his development to become AS GOOD as hitter as these comps...the reason we're having this discussion in the first place is that his BABIP skills are very raw.

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  8. I think with Gose, I'd be perfectly content with his speed, fielding ability and league-average hitting. And if Gose can hit anywhere around .300, that would just be gravy.

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  9. With the caveat that Spring numbers mean very little, nonetheless Gose has shown well this spring in all areas. With such a young player, we can perhaps be more hopeful that these signs augur a significant step forward.

    Gose is already by all accounts a very good Centre fielder, and extremely fast. He's showing good power potential (7 HRs last year, ISO of ~ .140). There's still much improvement needed as a hitter, but his profile is very favourable. I'd say his best comp is Franklin Gutierrez (higher K rate than Bourn or Ellsbury, more power) and Gutierrez has a 6 WAR season under his belt.

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  10. It neither excites nor terrifies me. Gose is a prospect; he's 20. Projecting how he will play in the majors is pure guesswork - particularly when it comes to hitting.

    I'm happy that the Jays traded Wallace, who didn't seem to run or defend well and projected to be only passable at the plate, for Gose, who runs and defends well. In the end, they're both prospects, but Gose seems to have better natural athleticism to back up his baseball skills.

    In terms of Gose's ceiling... I figure you can't trade for a 20 year old in the expectation that he'll turn into a 6 WAR player. 4 WAR/season would be a great outcome for the Jays.

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  11. And it may be worth noting that the Jays have only had 12 6-WAR seasons from offensive players in the team's history. No player has had more than two. So... 6 WAR is setting the bar awfully high.

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  12. I find the comparison reassuring. Gose's ceiling might be higher than Ellsbury's but I would think his floor is considerably lower (as in never becomes a serviceable hitter). I'd take Ellsbury type offense and better CF defense to the bank any day from Gose.

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  13. I imagine Anthopolous' projected "high-upside" for Gose is based largely on defensive contribution. It's long been asserted that defense is currently underrated in how we measure WAR (largely because it's so damn hard to measure).

    To bank on a hitter learning to hit at an above-average level this late in the game is a stretch I think. I know the speed comp doesn't work, but a Franklin Guittierez type of contribution I think is his upside. (Elite defense with league average offense, perhaps with more speed upside than the seattle centerfielder)

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  14. Didn't read that Gabriel had already made the Gutierrez comp. I clearly agree with his oppinion.

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  15. I gladly accept Death to Flying Things as a comp, though he's the best defensive CF around. Those goals are equally lofty.

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  17. It's quite possible that the organization was more down on Wallace than they let on. His offense was stagnating and the move to first base really hurt his value. It was much more respectful to the Astros and a better sell from a PR standpoint to hype up Gose's offensive potential than to admit that they wanted to wipe the slate clean and start again with another prospect. AA has never shied away from the fact that positional scarcity was a consideration in the trade. I suspect it was a bigger factor than offensive upside.

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  18. How long before you use 'There Gose the neighbourhood' as a post title?

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  19. God, I'm so embarrassed. Though that would give me an excuse to post a Body Count video, so it isn't all bad.

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  20. Curious as to the reasoning for the doom and gloom over Gose's offensive upside. As raw as he is, Gose just held his own as a 19 year old in the FSL (average age 22.7 years). Ellsbury put up a .797 OPS in half a season in the Carolina league as a 22 year old. For what it is worth (sample size caveats not withstanding) Gose put up a similar OPS in his time with Dunedin and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he easily eclipses that production in his time in Dunedin this season.

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  21. I don't know if "doom and gloom" is fair. I think Ellsbury is a realistic comp. Do we really expect Gose to suddenly hit like Grady Sizemore out of the blue?

    Consider, for future reference, Matt Kemp. As a 20 year old in the FSL, Kemp hit 27 home runs and stole 25 bases, good for a .917 OPS. Do we think Gose will approach these type numbers?

    I simply advocate being realistic when projecting a young player into the future.

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  22. Doom and Gloom were more in response to a couple of comments made earlier in the thread:

    "AA has never shied away from the fact that positional scarcity was a consideration in the trade. I suspect it was a bigger factor than offensive upside."

    and

    "To bank on a hitter learning to hit at an above-average level this late in the game is a stretch I think."

    Advocating realistic expectations of prospects is what I would expect, I was simply surprised that some people either forget how young Gose was last year or conversely believe that at the ripe old age of 19 his offensive profile has been determined. I just feel that relative age is something that is too commonly overlooked when assessing performance in the minors.

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  23. Ken Rosenthal just wrote an article with a frightening line about one of Gose's favourite players being Juan Pierre. THAT's a scary comp, right there.

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  24. This a little late for a post on this thread, but I figure better late than never. I think the comparisons between gose and ellsbury are way off. On paper they may look similar; because they are strong fielders, fast etc. But in reality if you actually watch Gose take an ab, I don't think there is as much to compare as you all seem to think. Gose is a 5-tool potential player. With three elite tools [speed, fielding, arm] and the potential to develop power and contact. Ellsbury is not- he never had the power or the arm to be consider anywhere near elite in those categories. Im not trying to say Gose is a better talent- hes just different. Ellsbury as a minor leaguer was known for his excellent contact rates, good defense and speed. Gose is know for his defense, arm and speed.
    II think its too easy to make a comparison between two players because they are both have elite speed.
    I agree with Gabriel though, I think his best comp would be franklin guittierez because of his elite defence and power, one exception is that guittierez is nowhere near the basestealer gose should become.

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