Axiom to Grind

In my haste to assert my wide-reaching baseball knowledge, I fell victim to the classic/laziest blunder possible: axiomatic thinking. In the comment section of the post below, I prattled on and on about throwing change ups to same-handed hitters and what not.

Luckily wise commenter Peter Gentleman jumped in and set me straight with a great post from the Baseball Analyst Archives. It turns out change ups don't have real platoon splits, that right handed pitchers throwing change ups to right handed hitters isn't the end of the world.

But I got lazy, I fell victim to the same tired thinking that astute guys like Overmanagin Joe Maddon and the like exploit. Joe Maddon doesn't stack the lineup with righties against Marcum because it gives him an explicit advantage, he does it because Shaun Marcum thinks it gives the Rays an advantage. I imagine hitters to as well. One can assume they're more confident that they can handle that type of pitch from that type of pitcher, perhaps they incorporate it into their plan at the plate.

The issue of confidence is impossible to quantify, but it really plays into the game in innumerable ways. A seed of doubt is the goal of every pitcher, make the hitter keep something other than "see ball, hit ball" in the forefront of their minds. Which is why a guy like Marcum —changing speeds and locations at will—is so effective with such iffy stuff.

It's the same reason you don't bunt into the extreme lefty shift - you're playing into the other team's hands. Even the finest David Ortiz bunt has zero chance of turning into a home run; you can't say the same when he swings away. Just like numbers show most pitchers aren't much worse when from the stretch, they often believe that they are.

The same thoughts polluted my brain this week as I tried to think of the best possible batting order for the worsening Jays offense. Traditional thinking says your best hitter in the third spot, masher at 4, fast/OBP guy leads off. More recent research shows 1,2,4 as the spots for your best hitters.

I tried to apply that thinking to an optimized Jays lineup but couldn't get past the traditional thinking. Adam Lind looks so good as the number three hitter, who cares that he's often hitting with two outs? The Jays make outs/hit dingers at such a crazy rate anyway; I don't think the order matters too much anyway.

So please accept my apologies for the earlier post and credit to Peter Gentleman for calling me on it. Hopefully Shaun Marcum and the Jays brass realize a good change is a good change, no matter who stands in the box. Hopefully Travis Snider's return can return the offense to its unlikely rightful place as the most potent in baseball. Hopefully Alex Gonzalez staves off pumpkinhood for a little while longer. Hopefully somebody notices how awesome a cleanup hitter Vernon Wells is. Hopefully...

BAS Audit

It seems as though Jose Bautista and I got off on the wrong foot. I appreciate the things he does on the diamond, and I'm not even disappointed the Jays tendered him a contract. In this rebuilding year, who really cares how the team squanders their money? So long as JoeBau isn't blocking a worthwhile prospect (nope, the cupboard is bar-I MEAN ALL THE FOOD IS ON THE TABLE), why not let him get some reps in the outfield while offering capable backup for EE?

It's hard to deny that Jose Baustista killed the ball in the month of September, as Ian at the Blue Jay Hunter points out. If you've been following the BAS journey from the start, you realize I'm less than enamored with Baustista's September contribution. Back in September I stated my beleaf in the "Never Trust Anything That Happens in April or September" theory. It seems clear that teams eat innings with Brian Tallets and Sergio Mitres in hopes of sparing their bullpen, while good young arms are shut down to protect their development. Looking at Jose Bautista's record in September does nothing to dissuade that belief.

Below you'll see a list of the murderer's row Bautista victimized by way of the September long ball. Names accompanied by a star were September call-ups with very limited innings in 2009:

Scumbag	Hand	FIP	HR Allowed	HR/9	HR/FB
Jeremy Guthrie	R	5.31	35	1.58	10.9
Chris Ray	R	5.36	8	1.66	14.3
Hideki Okajima	L	4.20	8	1.18	8.5
Clay Buchholz	R	4.69	13	1.27	13.7
Hunter Jones *	L	6.65	3	2.13	13.0
Ian Snell	R	4.88	14	0.87	7.5
Chad Gaudin	R	4.16	14	0.86	9.0
Michael Dunn *	L	7.60	1	2.25	33.3
Scott Baker	R	4.08	28	1.26	9.7
Jeff Manship *	R	4.93	4	1.14	10.3

While hitting a major league pitch over a fence standing 300-odd feat away is certainly quite a feat, this list doesn't fill my heart with glee, other than the perverse glee associated with being right. Hitting a home run off of Jeremy Guthrie is a rite of passage, like carrying a Dora backpack to the bullpen or pissing on Don Zimmer in the shower. It's something every big leaguer does at least once in their career. Chris Ray is equally terrible. The three kids that Bautista took deep all struggled mightily during their cameos, Dunn's appearance being his only one of the year.

Interesting that the final 5 home runs of the season were hit on the road, including three over the Green Monster. Only recently did I realize why they call it the Green Monster. Not because of the paint, it's all the money it makes for right-handed hitters at Fenway.

The homers off Buchholz, Snell, Gaudin and Baker should be the real focus here. All are actual, serviceable, right-handed big league arms. Snell pitched well after coming to the American League and Gaudin gave the Yankees some useful innings. Any Blue Jays fan that watch Buchholz crush the Toronto lineup over and again knows what he can do. Let's take a quick look at what kind of pitches Bautista squared up (click and it grows!).



Almost all fastballs (one change, one two-seamer) and all on the inside half. Interesting that Jose jumped on the first pitch he saw three times! Confidence is a wonderful thing I think, hopefully it carries over into 2010.

Some of the projections for Bautista offer some reason for (guarded) optimism. Dinger-happy Bill James suggests Jose could smack 13 taters in 2010, while CHONE believes he's good for 15. The real question, other than the less than stellar rates projected, is plate appearances. Until the biggest other shoe in franchise history drops, there is a log jam at most positions Jose figures to play. I'd be quite surprised to see him grab 400 PAs as he did in 2009. If he plays good defense when given the chance and builds on these late-season successes against right handed pitching, Jose Bautista could prove a worthy signing for 2010. But please Cito, don't fall in love with him all over again.

Big thanks to Ian the Blue Jay Hunter for the image, Hit Tracker for the dong info, Fangraphs for the pitcher details, and Brooks Baseball for the Pitch F/X.

Pesky Hairs Refuse to Split

A good post at Batters Box got me thinking about the Jays continued failings in late innings, close games, or other such settings for inevitable heartbreak. The tenets of Blue Jays baseball under JP were clear, the bulk of which I agree with. Except one: the value of utility players.

The Jays seem to love guys they can plug into multiple positions with little or no notice. This does seem attractive and potentially valuable, but only to an extent. One thing you've seen here before is me pining for better use of all 25 roster spots. This is especially difficult under Cito, that doesn't mean it isn't important. The 2009 Jays weren't a great team, but at times they featured three guys (Johnny Mac, Joe Inglett, Jose Bautitsa) that could jump in and play any number of positions on the diamond. Not only does this give the team flexibility, it's a skill that comes cheaply. To make my point even more bluntly; the Jays keep these jacks of all trades around because they're cheap, not because they make winning games easier.

A popular thought making its way around the baseball world these days isn't all that new, its just expressed in modern terms. You'd rather have one 6 WAR player than two 3 WAR guys. That hold true at the ass-end of the bench, too. The Jays kept guys like Bautista, MacDonald, and Inglett (when healthy) around to perform a myriad of tasks at replacement level rather than employ one proper fourth outfielder. Sending Travis Snider in as a defensive replacement for Adam Lind is technically an upgrade, but going from "negligent" to "unfortunate" doesn't really help the team.

The Jays seem to lack specialists, guys that can come in and make the most of a late inning opportunity. There is something to be said for the team actually possessing the assets but if the manager is loath to use them&mdash inserting Overbay once the left-handed starter's gone or using Randy Ruiz in the reverse setting&mdash then there isn't much point.

Coming up with a list of names that will help fully flesh out a big league roster is easy (rosterbation - a victimless crime!) but getting them to fit into a real, live 25 man roster is not. The Jays seem to not have the same set of options that their divisional rivals have. Shit, a guy like Hinske would really help this team (power off the bench, corner outfield postions? FML).

I recognize these aren't the players that will make or break the Jays in 2010 or beyond. But meaningful contributions from bench and role players IS a key aspect of successful baseball teams. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays didn't make the World Series because Eric Hinske was on their team, but having a guy on their bench with specific skills and abilities helps a a lot more than a guy willing to run to any spot on the field. The Jays need production from guys (to go along with production from their marquee players, that is a given) like this if they hope to compete with teams that aren't forced to wring value out of every dollar spent.

The Blue Jays Offer Invaluable Service to Fans Everywhere

Replacements - Bastards Of Young
The concept of VORP or WAR or any of the various statistics which tout the mythical "replacement player" can be confusing to the casual fan or non-geek first toeing the SABR waters. Who is this replacement-level player? Who is he replacing? Is it like average?

The replacement player is the 26th man on any team; a guy freely available to any team for a very minimal investment. The proverbial "guy off the street/man out of the stands" filling in for a more capable player.

If this definition is still too hazy, too abstract for you to fully grasp the concept, allow me to introduce your 2009 Toronto Blue Jays. The late season edition of the 2009 Toronto Blue Jays any way. These Jays starting lineup featured 8 players at or near replacement level during their weekend series with the Rangers.

Westerberg in Question	WAR
Rod Barajas	0.8
Randy Ruiz	0.4
Jose Bautista	0.3
John MacDonald	0.1
Raul Chavez	0.1
Joe Inglett	-0.3
Kevin Millar	-0.4
Edwin Encarnacion	-0.4
Travis Snider	-0.4
Vernon Wells	-0.9

Now, not even I am dumb enough to suggest these are all "replacement players." Vernon Wells is having a terrible year and capable of much more, also his enormous contract makes him irreplaceable. Travis Snider is 21 and still learning his way, 9 Ks at a time. Randy Ruiz's boom or bust start to his Blue Jays career is only replacement level because of his limited at bats. Were he to play a full season at DH, he'd surely amass 200 strikeouts, 20 home runs and 10 doubles be worth 2 wins above replacement.

As I stated before, the moving target that is catcher's defensive evaluation keeps us from getting a true sense of Barajas's value. He's hit a bunch of home runs this week (two last night!) but don't get it twisted, he was terrible for a long, long time. Offensively he's been worse than many catchers that don't get nearly the at bats Rod does. Chavez doesn't get enough starts but he can't hit so what does it matter?

The rest? What's left is the true definition of replacement level. Guys with 50 PAs minimum (about 10 starts) that could easily be replaced by any available baseball talent. Millar, Inglett, Bautista, Johnny Mac, E5; they've seen reasonable amounts of playing time with as close to nothing to show for it as possible. Kinda sad.

The worst part of it is there isn't anyone beating down the door. The only players being blocked are Brian Dopriak aka Randy Ruiz 1.2 and quad A Buck Coats. All the food is on the table honey, looks like a lean Christmas this year.

A Few Random Thoughts

• I find it really interesting when Jays fans get all riled up over Sportsnet showing the Fenway Faithfuls singing "Sweet Caroline." The Jays are about the most soulless, bland, corporate, and guileless organization around. What's wrong with something with a bit of character? Don't we all constantly whine about the sterile atmosphere at the Dome? Let them sing and let Sportsnet broadcast it, it's a part of the game and that's the show you're watching.
  
  
• Another question along a similar line: are we fans unhappy with a lack of homerism from the Jays broadcast team? This shocks me, as nothing is worse than a cheerleader in the booth. Tom and Jerry never pretended only one team was on the field, I salute the numerous Jays broadcasters for avoiding the Hawk/Swirsk brand of blather. If Rod Black is praising Dustin Pedroia it's because he can play. We all hate on out-of-market announcers that do the same, we can't have it both ways.
  
  
• Listen to the Walkoff Walk Podcast. Seriously. We do it live every Monday, but you can download it after the fact via Itunes or by clicking the fancy button on the right. I mention the Blue jays every single show because I'm biased and my scope of knowledge is narrow.
  
  
• Not so narrow that I can't tell your 50 ways you could better live your life. I contributed A Handsome Man's Guide to Golf over at valued reader and rakish gadabout Archimedies home base; The Handsome Man's Guide to Life. I've played a lot of golf and done a lot of awesome stuff so consider yourself in good hands. Check it out and drop some valued golf/life nuggets of your own.