Friday, January 8, 2010

Sometimes, Always, Never


Getting riled up by or dragged into an argument deep inside the Drunk Jays Fans comment section is never a good idea. Trolls live large and the regulars battle with the hosts on a daily basis. Reading yesterday and last night about the suddenly-polarizing figure of Alex Anthopoulos, I was mildly surprised but mostly annoyed. Praising AA as a prodigy poised to save the world is wishful thinking contrasted by those who seek to slam him and the mysterious Rogers board for the awful power they wield over the Blue Jays doesn't do much for me either. It made me think two, separate-yet-related thoughts.

Firstly, getting fired up over the acquisition of Brian Bocock is insane. Insane but understandable in our internet age. Back in the day, a move like this might register an entry in the transaction record printed towards the back of the sports section. No comment, just BLUE JAYS SIGN BRIAN BOCOCK TO MINOR LEAGUE DEAL. Instead, the good men of DFJ post the news with a flippant comment that boils down to "probably nothing, best case scenario he's the next Johnny Mac." This nothing roster-filling depth move sparks a flurry of debate and righteous anger among people that seem to agonize over the organizational minutia. Let me tell you, none of it is worth the energy.

Secondly, the doom and gloom squad view this as sign of the Jays continuing inability to acquire a major-league ready player at no cost. This leads to either cries of puppet regime, apologists, and Wilner-worship. All of which are wrong. If you really think signing Jason Bay and John Lackey gives the Jays the talent to compete with the Yankees for the division or the Red Sox for the Wild Card in 2010, you're misguided. If you think you can just open your wallet and a contender is sure to follow, you're misinformed and under-educated. Sorry.

To those patiently waiting for Anthopoulos's masterplan to fall into place while bemoaning 7 years of J.P.'s incompetence (they finally have a plan!), take heed. Consider, once again, the 2006 Jays.

J.P. shed some costly and ineffective contracts and sat poised with controllable homegrown talent all over the diamond. Three outfielders from within the system (Ash picks) all making better than 3 WAR contributions with a cheap pickup tossing in consistent 2 wins of his own, a hot young second baseman ready to take over for the arb-eligible vet who was moved to fill a hole at third base. The outfield glut afforded dumping a "can't miss bat" in Gabe Gross for a patient/slugging first base doubles machine. Two cheap young system arms in the rotation (Chacin & Towers) and a stable middle of the bullpen.

So Rogers opened the bank and the team added another top of the rotation starter and name closer to solidify the backend of the pen. They took on substantial salary in acquiring the slugging third baseman and took their shot. The result?

One of the top three offenses in baseball. One of the top three defenses in baseball. A middle of the road pitching staff. 87 wins. Which might have been okay had the Detroit Tigers not added 25 wins to their 2005 total.

The point? Shit happens. The best laid plans go awry. Is Anthopoulos on the right track? I think so, but we've been down this road before. The "sign free agents to flesh out the cheap/excellent core" route is wrought with potholes as well. Sometimes you sign a closer for two years too long, even though he goes off and gives you a 3 win season out of the gate. Sometimes you get swept by the Rockies and Marlins and don't realize how much it hurt your season. No matter how strong you think the foundation is, shit happens.

Images courtesy of Liza Lee Miller and Tireball

21 comments:

  1. Though I still read DJF religiously, I've vowed to stay out of the comments section, the trolls are just too deep.

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  2. Well written, and well put, mate. That last paragraph is a fucking beauty.

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  3. I LOVE the 2006 team. Reed walks off; Beav and I walk to Sneaky Dee's.

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  4. It has to be some sort of cruel irony that a guy like 2006 Reed Johnson is EXACTLY what they need for 2010. Good looking out Gathright.

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  5. Well put. It was a solid team, and the right time to go for it -- I've never felt there was reason to dump on JP for his overall accomplishments in Toronto. Too many things don't go how you expect -- So Vernon Wells sucks and Marco Scutaro is a Type A: SURPRISE!

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  6. Maybe I just don't know anything about building a baseball team but from my eyes it looks like AA is going about it the right way.

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  7. I didn't say otherwise. But he's not the first.

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  8. I think the optimism about AA comes from the fact that he's continuing to do many of the things that JP did right (signing low-risk/high-reward types, attempting to build a strong core of controllable talent), but he's also changing a lot of the things that JP did wrong (so far he's increased scouting, he's been keeping his cards closer to his chest with regards to trades/signings), and in all likelihood his less abraisive personality has probably helped his popularity as well. It'll all be moot if his plan ends up failing like JP's did, but at this point all fans can do is speculate, and so far the signs have all been good. Being cautiously optimistic seems an appropriate response at this point.

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  9. Long time reader, first time poster. This is an excellent post, Drew, but I have to agree with what Ty says with respect to AA. So far he's mostly been echoing the things that his predecessor got right and he seems like a more likeable guy who keeps his cards close to the vest. I too am cautiously optimistic.

    I felt similarly during the latter years of the J.P. Ricciardi regime. I never had a problem with the majority of moves that he made. The moves that really made me scratch my head even at the time were the Wells extension and the Ryan contract. With respect to Ryan it seemed like too much to pay for any reliever, even a very good one like The Beej. As for Wells, I figured they overpaid even if he continued to hit like he did in 2006 through 2014 (a very optimistic outlook) simply because there seemed to me to be very little chance he'd continue to stick in center past 2011 or so. Paying that much for a corner outfielder who hit like Wells in 2006 was a lot to pay from 2012 to 2014.

    To be worth that kind of money on the back end of the deal (2011 to 2014), Wells would need to stick in center and continue to play at least average defense while continuing to hit like he did in 2006. Even then the Jays would be overpaying, but that would be a reasonable consequence of getting him for a reasonable price in the earlier years of the contract. I didn't think this was very likely so I disagreed with the deal even at the time.

    Apart from those two contracts I thought most of J.P.'s other moves were very much defensible even if I didn't wholly agree with the logic with respect to some of them.

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  10. Thanks for commenting Nick, your excellent contribution is appreciated.

    I realize now this post comes off as more of an attack on AA than I planned. It was supposed to be more pro-JP, a reaction to the reactionaries who only look at the results of his tenure instead of the process, which we all agree was pretty sound.

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  11. Explaining to those reactionaries that JP's process was sound is akin to explaining to Richard Griffin that wins and RBI's are useless stats. The unfortunate truth in far too many situations is that there will always be simpletons who think results are the only real basis for judgement, and they're often the ones with the loudest voices.

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  12. @ Drew-I was agreeing with what you're saying about AA. So far he seems to be on the right track. The only track really unless you're going to spend like crazy. Even that guarantees nothing.

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  13. Shit can happen every year, so what's the point of reducing the percentage of years in which it not happening means you're successful?

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  14. Long time reader, first time poster, again. First post because this post, is exactly how I feel.

    I read DJF pretty regularly too and can't believe the comments, not just bocock, but mccoy and hauffpaueir post too. Before internet we would never have heard these deals, because they just don't matter (unless you're a 51's or Fishercat fan). Can't stand the trolls or all the negativity.

    I like what AA is doing, regardless of the Chapman outcome, but I think its an exciting time to be a Jays fan. Would like to see some more MLB moves done before SP but as it is this has been a pretty good offseason for following the Jays and can't wait for the draft either. THe seaon might be rough, but I'll still watch, and enjoy it.

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  15. I've long been an advocate of using context in judging GMs. This has caused people to label me a JP "apologist". I prefer "rationalist". I thought he did a fine job overall and his downfall was an insane amount of bad luck (injuries, offense/defense/pitching not clicking at the right time, or the competitive situation) and his personality, which I didn't mind as long unless it hurt the team, which it did in some cases. Like the others, I'm excited about AA because he seems to be the natural progression from Gillick and JP, combining both of their strengths.

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  16. Great post, Drew. How you can hear the voices in my head, I'll never know.

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  17. "Back in the day, a move like this might register an entry in the transaction record printed towards the back of the sports section. No comment, just BLUE JAYS SIGN BRIAN BOCOCK TO MINOR LEAGUE DEAL."

    More like - BLUE JAYS SIGN ex-GIANT BOCOCK.

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  18. I understand how AA has been treated like a saint by a lot of fans. His moves so far seem smart and offer a sense of optimism that we haven't seen in some time.

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  19. Hey. My ex-GF use to make me play Yahtzee with her once a week. I hated it. Never rolled a damn Yahtzee. Haven't rolled one for years. You'd think eventually I'd get some luck, right? RIGHT?!

    Today at work I rolled three Yahtzees... in consecutive turns.

    I think this is a good analogy of the Jays last 5 years and a prediction for their luck in the future. PLAYfuckingOFFS!!!

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  20. I think YAHTZEE!! is the new PLAYOFFS!

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