You Mean They Play Baseball?

Lost in the constant din of HalladayHalladayHallday was the Jays losing two out of three to a game but terrible Mariners team. The lineup they sent out on Wednesday was borderline embarrassing. Nearly as embarrassing as Cito sending Roy Halladay back out into the heat, as the good men of Bluebird Banter point out. Last year there was some debate around Halladay's ability to pitch in the heat (proved to be nonsense by General Hale, but there was chatter none the less.) All reports point towards the man being spent. Even after he loaded the bases, he was still out there. Bring in a lefty and Griffy may as well swing a rolling pin. But nope, it was Doc's penultimate game before his second-to-last home start, he must finish what he starts.

Sadly, it is that time of year again and now the time of day to sift through the sadness we see before us. You guessed it, it's underperformance o'clock! The fun game where we point to the Jays brutal underperformance of all their expected or third order records. Firstly we look at the cold, hard, indisputable truth. The Jays have 49 wins and 53 losses. But now the fun begins.

The run differential is +42, good for 9th in all of baseball. That means their pythag record is 55-47. Boo. The good people at Baseball Prospectus provide second and third order wins which are calculated to be "luck neutral." Both second and third order wins put the Jays on 54 or 55 wins. The only team with a greater difference between their actual record and these theoretical numbers are the Washington Nationals. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't want to be associated with them in any way, shape, or form.

Beyond the Box Score offer their weekly power rankings based on a myriad of calculations based on offense, run prevention (including defense!) adding in adjustments for strength of schedule and league. The Toronto Blue Jays &mdash the team many local fans want to "blow up" and "start over"&mdash currently sit fifth in the BtB rankings. The Jays just keep on underperforming their expected records. But how???

Once again, the Jays stink in the clutch. We aren't all imagining it, the Jays are the worst offensive team in basball under high-leverage pressure. By a long shot. The pitching doesn't perform nearly as badly in those high-leverage situations, though it hasn't been great overall. Gross. The main offenders? Vernon Wells natch, Aaron Hill, Lyle Overbay, Marco Scutaro and Adam Lind! All put up much worse numbers when the leverage is high. Rod Barajas and Alex Rios rank as the only Jays with positive clutch numbers. That says a lot, Rod Barajas should lead your team in exactly zero offensive categories. Two rookies are the best high leverage pitchers for the Jays, Romero and Cecil wiggling out of their own jams on a regular basis. The worst? Let's not talk about it.

Don't forget one run games? The games you're supposed to win half the time? The Jays wins 1 out of 3. Those same Mariners, with their awful offense and not great pitching, have won 25 out of 38 one-run games. Guess which team has a better record? Are the Mariners a better team than the Jays? Not even a little bit. At least the Jays have lost 10 extra inning games already!

No wonder this fanbase is so fed up, so ready for change. I made the point in the winter: for the Jays to compete they need to get (or be) lucky. They haven't (and aren't). Blame the GM if you must, but a slight reversal of sacking direction (up rather than down) and we're all singing a whole new tune. One that sounds like PLAYOFFS!

Reuters photo courtesy of Daylife, Rogers promotional photo courtesy of Eye On Springfield

Fortune Resumes Hiding

I was ready. The early season signs were unmistakable. Games the Jays seems bound and determined to lose, they pulled out of the fire. Odd and/or questionable managerial choices worked out, the Ws are on the board for time immaterial. By divine providence and the benevolent guidance of one Clarence Gaston, the Jays are in first place without any indication of leaving. This was it!!! Slightly outperforming their Pythagorean record, winning one run games, coming from behind!! Who knew? Hell, the Jays are sixth in baseball with runners in scoring position (2nd in RISP OPS!!!) Sure, they're not exactly putting up 2008 Angels-level numbers in the clutch, but they're still winning! In November I said the only way the Jays can reasonably expect to compete for the playoffs (!) was a little bit of luck. Luck they are experiencing a most profound way: they're winning games they shouldn't. And it's awesome. No way am I going to fuck this gift horse in the mouth!

Alas, some luck seems to have run out. Injuries are now piling up. Some are fortunate; preventing any, as the Tao Tweeted, "kabuki nonsense" over the next few weeks in search of a competent replacement. The Ricky Romero injury is not fortunate. While it will usher in the Brett Cecil era, it will also prolong the Scott Richmond (not as bad as I'd think, says Wilner) and the Brian Tallet Found Money era. A rotation peopled with never-wases is slightly frightening, but it's okay. They're still in first place, and will be for a minimum of one more full day! If the Jays are in first place on May 1st, consider this season a rousing success. Far too many people that I care to admit have told me how excited they are for this Jays team and baseball in general. Which is great. I just hope they all stay on the ride when the inevitable (or not, PLAYOFFS!) turbulence hits.

Deep Sigh Update: Apparently it is not time for the Cecil era to begin. Instead the Brian Burres shitshow will roll into town just to piss me off. FREE BRYAN BULLINGTON!

Hopeful Exhale Update: BRYAN BULLINGTON MIGHT JUST BE FREE AFTER ALL!!

Tuesdays are for Whoring

Do you ever feel as though you've stumbled upon the set of a hacky hidden camera show? I was on the subway the other day and I came across a guy that took the "nerd" archetype to new heights. This poor bastard looked like every shitty sketch comedy cliche heaped on top of one another. The ferret-like posture, the mustache/goatee of dried and cracked skin, the Issac Asimov reader (not a book underlined; clearly something that picked up at an event that's title ended in -CON), all the way down to glasses that resembled, in both thickness and aesthetic appeal, the headlights of 1986 K Car. I don't know that I felt bad for him, but I definitely couldn't take my eyes off him.

With that self righteousness out of the way, I encourage everyone to read my Jays season preview over at 3:10 to Joba. These fine fellows are previewing every team in the league, and they asked me to address the desperation felt by Jays fans. The only thing I'm really desperate for is acceptance of the Jays as a good team. I hate that they're swept aside as a "non-contender" despite being such a good team. A little respect is all we ask for, AMIRITE?

Speaking of respect, Walkoff Walk celebrated it's one year anniversary on Saturday. This week kicked off with some best of lists, and today was my turn. It's truly a pleasure to work with those fine gentleman, and I thank them for the opportunity to spread my Clooneyness.

If you are a Mariners fan, there is good reason for excitement. A new GM has taken the club in new and modern directions, giving hope to the pointy heads at USS Mariner. Recently they used the 2003 Mariners as a successful model that the 2009 Mariners could follow. While I don't care too much for the M's, I certainly see connections between the 2003 Mariners team that won 93 games (Pythaged for 98!) and the 2009 Toronto Blue Jays.

In fact, the 2008 or 2009 Jays stack up very favorably to the 2003 Mariners. That year the Mariners had a pretty meager offense, solid pitching and excellent defense. Looking around the diamond, they got next to no production from 4 positions (C, 3B, LF, 1B). The Jays aren't likely to match the 3 offensive wins at DH and 2B, but they can more than make up the slack at the previously mentioned spots. Lyle Overbay should easily match the output of 36 year old John Olerud offensively while providing the same high level of defense.

As the USSers point out, they were one of the top defensive clubs with a +55 for the season. The Jays were +72 last year, and could improve in a few ways. A full season of Aaron Hill, no Mench-Wilkerson-Stairs shaped holes in the outfield, a hopefully recovered (or relocated) Vernon Wells could all contribute to improving the Jays already excellent defense.

Even with big seasons from Bret Boone & Edgar Martinez, an Ichiro-sized season from uh, Ichiro, and average contributions from the rest, that Mariners offense was almost identical to the 2008 Jays. 20 extra points of team OPS, a little higher isolated power (4 points) yet the Mariners were worth almost 50 more runs above average than the 2008 Jays. How could this be? Get the vomitsacks ready, it's all about situational hitting.

The 2003 M's lead the league with a 3.74 "clutch rating", or how much the performed in high leverage situations versus their calculated context neutral rates (WPA/LI). That is a very high number, but not nearly as out of this world lucky as the 2008 Angels, who's unsustainable 7.32 dominated the American League in unnatural ways. As you may know, the 2008 Jays were a terrible situational or clutch team, notching a pathetic -1.65 clutch measurement. The main offenders predictably were Lyle Overbay and Alex Rios, each struggling in high leverage situations.

So a few bounces, continued glove work, the kids make up AJ's 3 wins - boom the Jays win 90 games. Right?? Right??? Why not debate it tonight with the Blue Jay Hunter, he's hosting a live chat over his way at 9pm. Swing by and check it out!

Jays Unable to Sign Key Free Agent

No, not Manny. Not A.J. either. Not Milton Bradley, nor Adam Dunn. There isn't a single free agent, nobody that Tao's wondering eye has found, that could swoop in and throw the Jays over the back of his white horse and lead them to playoffs. The only thing that will get them there: luck.

Not even that much. The Blue Jays, as currently constituted without A.J. Burnett's three wins above replacement, are a good team. Good enough to win 86 games, good enough for a three digit positive run differential, good enough for between 90 and 92 third order/Pythagorean wins. Not good enough to make the playoffs. Why is that?

Simple: luck. The Yankees spent lots of cash, but got unlucky with free agent signings (both sound and ill-advised) and haven't won the World Series in 8 years. The Dodgers payroll was $120 million before they added Manny and he lead them to the promised land. The Tigers spent $140 million bucks and finished behind the Royals.

All 30 teams need some luck to get to the post season. The Rockies got red hot in September 2007 on the backs of young stars like Troy Tulowitzki, Jeff Francis, Manny Corpas and Ubaldo Jimenez only to see 2008 complete fall apart through injuries and generally shitty play from those very same players. The San Diego Padres were one blown call away from knocking said Rockies out of the one game playoff, and they lost 99 games in 2008. These teams are among the 25 Major League teams that don't require the mountain of luck in order to overcome the two biggest payrolls in baseball

Yes, the Rays performed this Herculean feat in 2008, but let's consider their case.

• They outperformed all their expected records. It was only one run, but the Jays had a greater run differential than the Rays. The difference in the standings? 11 games.
• They got huge numbers from two non-roster invitees. In successive years, Carlos Pena and Eric Hinkse came to Rays camp looking for jobs and ended up hitting 46 and 20 home runs respectively. Carlos Pena is an obviously talented player that just couldn't get it right previously, but ERIC FUCKING HINSKE CAME OUT OF NOWHERE TO HIT 20 HOME RUNS. That, more than anything in the world, is luck.
• They got career years out of 80% of their bullpen. In a very similar fashion to the 2005 Chicago White Sox, they built a bullpen out of decent guys, deployed them well and got career numbers out of them. Will any of these guys repeat these numbers? Perhaps, but if the World Series taught us anything, old K/BB rates die hard.

I'm not here to bury the Rays, I praise the excellent core they built through trades, the draft, and a few shrewd free agent signings. A few bad bounces though, and they're still the same old Rays.

The Jays should obviously look to improve their club, both for 2009 and the future. But one guy ain't going to do it on his own. No matter what kind of bat they bring to town, it will take more than one player with a 1.000 OPS for the Jays to play October baseball. And that is alright. That is what makes the ride that much more enjoyable, that is the beauty of a 162 game schedule. Round bat, round ball, George Will, sepia toned whatever.