A Study in Contrasts

This strapping young man is Mike Stanton. Mike Stanton is an outfielder for the Florida Marlins. He's a stud. Certifiable. We see him here at the tail end of a tater trot, something he's done 18 times this year, including three in three games earlier this week. Mike Stanton turns 21 in 2 months.

Mike Stanton started this season in double A, where he tuned up pitchers until early June. With an OPS over 1.100 and his arbitration clock officially stalled for one year, the Fish wisely called him up. And what did the Marlins do after calling up this can't miss stud? THEY PLAYED HIM EVERYDAY FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.

Mike Stanton — after spending two full months of 2010 in the minor leagues — has amassed more than 300 plate appearances at the major league level this year. The first month of Stanton's big league career was rough, sporting a .635 OPS even when buoyed by a very high in-play average.

What did the Marlins do? Send him down? Scale back his playing time? Nope, they left him in to find his way. Which he did in a hurry, knocking out a .900 OPS in July. He came back to Earth in August but still produced well above league average offense. Now September is here and he's destroying baseballs and (I'm sure) more than a few dreams of virginal Cuban weddings.

Meanwhile, the Jays have certainly given Travis Snider his chances, though I don't think I'm alone in feeling he hasn't really had a job to lose. Travis Snider missed 6 weeks with a wrist injury before languishing (with a small L) in the minors for another two weeks. Either way, Travis Snider will get fewer at bats this year than Mike Stanton.

All the talk of "we don't know what we have in Travis Snider" and "I don't feel we know anymore about Snider than we knew two years ago" comes back, just as Alan Ashby said, to letting him go out and play. Every day. Against tough lefties and shitballing righties. The Marlins don't hide Stanton from tough NL right-handers (facing Halladay, Wainwright, Oswalt et al in his rookie year) yet Clarence insists on burying Snider in the order and against top pitchers.

This is a well-worn trope already but I can't shake it. I don't understand. It's easy and logical (and fun!) to blame The Manager but how can the front office allow the squandering of a valuable resource?

Can't we assume they believe one of two things: this doesn't impact his development or they've re-evaluated his ceiling? Maybe I'm grossly oversimplifying, but looking at his monthly splits, I see a guy who struggled out of the gate, then found his way, then got hurt. He came back, struggled, then started to come around. Until his playing time gets jerked around again.

Looking at their roster and track record, I'd say the Marlins know a thing or two about developing young players. Would it be crazy to follow their lead in this most-important situation?

Surprise! Wins are Useless

It was early last week when the good men of Infield Fly put up a poll, encouraging Jays fans to cast a vote for their favorite of the four main starting pitchers. Judging by the use of tags on this very website, you'd have to assume my answer would be Brett Cecil¹.

It's true I am a big believer in what Brett Cecil can do, but I'm quietly becoming concerned with that he is doing. Yes, he's tied for the team lead with 12 big wins. Unfortunately, outside a superlative month of May, he hasn't pitched especially well at any point this year.

That isn't entirely true. Cecil's ground out an excellent number of innings, driving his WAR up to 2.4 for the year. But of the four starters, Cecil trails in most key component stats. I last wondered about the Cecil condition at the end of June, a month in which his strikeouts nose-dived and his fastball seemed flat. A bunch of home runs and a lousy strand rate shoved his ERA over 5 and his W-L to 2-3 for the month.

July saw Cecil pitch, well, worse. His strikeouts slunk lower while his walks nearly doubled. Much to Cecil's benefit/credit, he kept the ball in the ballpark and the gloves of his mates, riding a very low BABIP and a sky-high strand rate to a 1-0 record and a sparkling 2.23 ERA. Arbitrary end points as they might be, two consecutive bad months is two consecutive bad months.

Brett Cecil improved his won loss record in August (going 3-2) by pitching much better, nearly as well as his great month of May. The walks fell off sharply, allowing Cecil to weather the normalization of his home run rate, his BABIP, and his strand rate. His ground ball rate went up again and, while not nearly as high as in the minors, nearly reached the excellent 50% plateau.

Again, I don't mean to diminish the contributions of Brett Cecil. Outings like his start against the Rays, in which he lasted 8 long innings after giving up 5 early runs are invaluable and the reason innings pitched is included in all worthwhile counting stats. It speaks to the fluky nature of starting pitching, where an ill-timed home run can turn the context of an entire start completely around.

To me, it is another example of the triumph of process over result. Comparing Cecil's last two starts is a pretty stark reminder of the cruel nature of his profession. A little bad defense behind you, one poorly located pitch at the worst time and you've got a loss and 5 runs tallied against you. Some people might not care that you cruised for the next 5 (lower leveraged) innings, but dancing between the raindrops for 6 innings — like Cecil did against the Yankees — is a very dangerous game. But one is a win and one is a loss, only the optics say any differently.

What am I saying here? I'm a little worried about Cecil moving into next year. I worry he has a better chance of taking a step back rather than forward. I worry his new love for the change up might turn him into a fly-ball thrower, most unfortunately in a homer haven for right-handed hitters. Basically, I'm worried that the not-great months outnumber the good.

All the talk of the 4 great starters gets the blood moving but at least two of them still have much to prove. Let us learn from the very immediate past and remain guarded (just a little) in our optimism.

¹ - The correct answer is Team Romero.

Splits courtesy of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. Image courtesy of Reuters.

The Bear Gets De-clawed

Despite the dizzying heights of September call-up time, I'm unplugging this weekend. Rather than lament Player X's playing time; I'm going to Vegas for a spousing ceremony with my old lady. She's a patient one, putting up with more baseball than the law allows. Not to mention endless keyboard clacking/iPhone devotion. Why not make an honest woman out of her?

As a result, it'll slow around here until next week. Sadly, the Area 51s are out of town. That means no opportunity for me to "scout" Brad Eamus or any other marginal prospects bench-warming utility fodder still left to dry on the end-of-season vine. Instead, I'll be post-oak bluffing sheet rock salesmen and donkeys in backwards hats. Stay real!

Grindin'

A very telling quote, culled from Mr. Bastian's gamer after last night's tough luck loss.

Hill declined to speak with reporters.

Aaron Hill, maker of a crucial error, did not make himself available to the media. Not a big deal in some eyes, signs of petulance and a serious no-no in the eyes of others. It makes me think of one thing, the same thing I thought about yesterday: Travis Snider needs to play every day.

Obviously Aaron Hill is balls-deep in a terrible season at the plate. Aaron Hill is thought of by many, Jeff Blair most notably, as an awesome guy who is always honest and available. After 5 months of struggles and what I can only imagine is a sickening feeling of not pulling one's weight, Aaron Hill clearly had enough. Last night he didn't want to talk about it. He didn't want to say my bad a dozen different ways. He wanted to have a shower and get the hell out of there. Can't say that I blame him, but it's noteworthy either way.

What does this uncharacteristic have to do with Travis Snider? He needs to play every day, through the bad times. He must, like quasi-phenom Brennan Boesch in Detroit, face some tough lefties and pick up the pieces afterwards. He needs to face the music and deal with the psychological burden of slumps, without a three-day weekend to twist in the wind or a sabbatical in Vegas to bash some confidence out of triple A fodder.

Will a month of steady at bats on an also-ran provide this experience? Not on its own, but you must start somewhere. If the Jays plan on competing with Snider as a key piece, he needs to start making these adjustments immediately. Whenever it is the Jays make their real, concerted push towards the post-season, they won't have any kind of cushion to screw around with. Everything needs to be right, there is no margin for error.

Snider's also picked up a few injuries during these nascent stages of his career. His body is still adjusting to the grind and —all together now—playing with pain. Hill's anguish is proof this never goes away, just like the gruesome quotes from John Lott's excellent piece on Lyle Overbay's early season struggles. They always doubt, they always wonder. Get Snider out there every day to experience these trials. The sooner, the better. It isn't about at bats or reps in the field, it's about experience.

The Highly Movable Object

When pining for Fred Lewis lo those many months ago, I hoped he'd provide league average to above average play at nominal rate. I hoped he'd walk and steal a bag or two and maybe rope some doubles. As 2010 progresses, it is clear to see that Fred Lewis can do all those things, with his walk rate increasing. (Though all his other rates decrease.)

Remember, going into 2010 league average play out of the left fielder was far from a foregone conclusion. The Menchersons of the world were fresh in our heads; and the difference between league average and replacement level is much larger than we realize. And into this fray stepped Fred Lewis, doing an admirable¹ job. He hasn't set the world on fire, but he did a job very few Blue Jays were qualified to do. Until now.

At this juncture of the season, with all the moving parts at play, Clarence needs to sit Fred Lewis so Travis Snider can play every day. Not a popular choice — especially with Lewis, who seems to believe himself an everyday kinda guy — but this is the only piece that fits both a) the Jays future plans for their young players and b) the ideology of the current skipper.

Lyle Overbay is playing for a contract, meaning Clarence must do right by his veteran. Jose Bautista fills in at third base but The Manager loves him in right field. When healthy, Clarence can't get away from E5. Even without EE, Clarence often finds ways to keep Bautista in the outfield and one of the young outfielders on the bench.

Foolish as it might be to assume The Manager is in tune with the contract status of all his players, he has to know Lewis is due but a modest raise next year. If something has to give, it must be Lewis. League average is nice but this team has bigger fish to fry, as I'm sure I've said a million times. Travis Snider is a special talent and his at bats should be paramount.

Hardly breaking new ground, but this seems like the only way to work it. If Overbay must play every day, let him DH a bunch with Lind at first. If Bautista isn't playing right field, plug John MacDonald or McCoy or whomever in a third. Just leave Snider in left. Every night, every day. Tough lefty or shitballing righty. All Snider, all the time.

¹ - Admirable is a relative thing. Over his last 200 PAs, Lewis has an OPS a hair over .725. He's a streaky dude but that ain't too hot. Walks are good but the doubles have all but disappeared.


Reuters picture from Daylife

Alex Anthopoulos' First Real Decision

Alex Anthopoulos inherited quite a situation. Tasked with trading his team's best player, AA did about as well as one could ask. A tough chore but not a tough choice. Signing John Buck and Alex Gonzalez? Wise decisions but not especially trying. Acquiring Fred Lewis and Yunel Escobar? No brainers. Contract decisions aren't easy with so many moving pieces but that doesn't make them tough the way I'm thinking about them.

As Jeff Blair and Mike Wilner discussed during Prime Time Sports Thursday (look for it on iTunes as it isn't on The Fan's site proper. 4 o'clock hour, second segment), Aaron Hill's contract options are now far from a forgone conclusion. Hill's deal contract calls for $4 mil this year and $5 mil next. The next three years are club options; three of which can be activated at the end of this season with only two available at the end of 2011.

Blair intimates that Blue Jays high-ups considered re-jigging Hill's deal at some point this season, sewing up the option years to avoid the ugliness. Aaron Hill's precipitous 2010 dropoff pretty much silenced all that talk in a hurry. Wilner goes as far as to suggest he might be a non-tender candidate were the contract situation a little different.

For a little perspective on how bad/shocking Hill's line continues to be in 2010, continue this comparison:

1. .208/.280/.386/.292 wOBA
   
2. .231/.274/.435/.301 wOBA

Player A is of course Aaron Hill, while player B? None other than waiver-clearer Rod Barajas. Barajas seems like a jovial lad but his offensive contribution amounts to 20 home runs and that's it. That is a scary company for Hill to keep, as I don't think the offensive skillset that excited us all was "all-or-nothing replacement level catcher."

Wilner and Blair both agree the team almost certainly cannot pick up all three option years, a thought which mildly shocked me. Is this a road AA and the brain trust want to go down? What kind of fallout can we expect if the Jays tell Aaron Hill to prove, in no uncertain terms, that 2009 wasn't a fluke.

That isn't especially fair, since 2009 was almost certainly a fluke. Not a lucky fluke but a once-in-a-career, unrepeatable fluke. He can still pull himself together and have a fine career but 36 home runs again is a pretty tall order.

As Stoeten pointed out, the Jays seem to send out very mixed messages (via their manager) when it comes to veteran players. "Come to Toronto, we'll let you play!" might not be the official mantra of the Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club, but the implication exists in the minds of Jays watchers. While I'm not above requiring young players to earn their large cheques, the Jays politely asking one of the franchise cornerstones to play it out and show that he's worth it can only disquiet the next generation of talent.

Hill is sure to say All the Right Things in the press, talking about earning his contract and understanding the official position. I don't know that this kind of pressure is the type that all players thrive under. Hill performed beautifully with his deal in hand last year. Will putting him under the gun help or harm that?

There are a lot of questions arising from Hill's off year. How Alex Anthopoulos and his cohorts handle this sends a loud message through the clubhouse. Will a guy like Travis Snider (should he ever get any at bats again) be less inclined to a sign a similar deal, preferring to take his chances or demand guaranteed years? You can bet Kyle Drabek's agent is watching this whole situation very, very closely.

Reuters image courtesy of Daylife

Once Again, Just Sayin'

Whenever the "he's only _______ short of the cycle" talk starts and names like Kelly Gruber and Jeff Frye bounce around; my thoughts turn, as usual, to Carlos Delgado. And how much more badass (and noteworthy) his four home run game is than the cycle. 16 total bases son, that ain't nothing to fuck with.

Re-defining Quintessential

Ian the Blue Jay Hunter provided an excellent service and, in term, a excellent window into the mindset of a fanbase. Voting Joe Carter the quintessential Blue Jay by a decent margin shows Jays fans great love of the glory days.

Unfortunately for me, my overwhelming cynicism causes me to think this way: there's been a lot more quoteunquote heartbreak through the Jays storied history than triumph. What better epitomizes the true Blue Jays spirit than excellence toiling away in relative obscurity? Ten years of Carlos Delgado and Roy Halladay grabbing individual awards (or having them grabbed from them) while the team futilely trudged along.

The unending brilliance of Tony Fernandez might have ruined a generation's throwing arms¹, the indifferent achievement of Delgado and Halladay is truly the quintessential Blue Jays experience.

¹ - "Throw it overhand, dammit. Your arm won't get any stronger throwing it sidearm like that!" Many dads, 1984-2000 inclusive.

Image courtesy of the New York Daily News.

The Saddest Cowboy

Aaron Hill is struggling. Badly. I thought I'd help him with this handy dandy map to the plate, pointing out the best route as he looks so damn lost up there, he likely needs the heads up.

Walk up the steps bro, and stand by the white dot. Grab something heavier than your normal bat and swing it a bunch of times. Focus or relax or eat or love or pray or whatever the hell you need to do, then do it.

After the guy ahead of you makes an out, hits a home run, or walks (lulz!), walk up to the plate. Let the glorious strains of Foghat wash over you, make it a slow ride as your saunter up to take your turn. Maybe change it up, seek out a deeper cut from the Dazed and Confused soundtrack. You really — seriously — cannot go wrong with Black Sabbath. At any time of the day or your life.

To say Aaron Hill looks lost at the plate is an understatement. Dude looks completely out of sorts and that helpless feeling manifests itself in the saddest panda on the Blue Jays. Moping to the plate (and quickly back to the dugout) after doing his very best to work in concert with the pitcher's plan to retire him. Swinging at pitches out of the zone (which he sees more than ever) and making contact with balls thrown off the plate (again, at a career high.)

I don't know what I'm advocating as a plan to get Hill back on track. Just like great years, shitty years happen. Hill's BABIP is criminally low and, as a huge driver of his offensive performance, a little luck is due to come his way. Moving him down in the order seems the likely move but to what end?

Maybe give him a few days off here and there. I can't pretend to know what will snap his funk. Hill certainly seems like (based on reputation and limited video evidence) a good dude and a key part of this team in the future. I'm a lot more worried about his rebound than Adam Lind, as I believe Adam Lind is a far better hitter caught in a transitional year in his career (marriage, new contract and the associated expectations¹.) I just know that Aaron Hill is a fun player to watch, just not when he clearly isn't having any fun at all.

Travis Snider, Fred Lewis, and Confirmation Bias

During last night's gong show, Travis Snider legged out 1.5 infield hits. One was clearly an error on the pitcher (whom Snider trucked as gingerly as a refrigerator shaped man can) and another that found a hole. Travis Snider, it would seem, is pretty fast.

When a professional pundit makes an assertion that is nearly impossible to prove, he is likely to hear about it. Especially from those with an ax to grind against him. So Mike Wilner's personal belief — that Travis Snider is a faster runner than Fred Lewis — met with some resistance.

Fred Lewis has more stolen bases and a higher speed score (a counting stat, it should be noted. Lewis has more than double the plate appearances of Snider.) Also, Fred Lewis is a lean, athletic black guy while Travis Snider is a thick white dude who played fullback in high school.

It's a lot easier to assume Fred Lewis is faster because he looks like a fast runner. Travis Snider does not. That's more than enough reason to deride Wilner for making a seemingly questionable yet perfectly valid point.

I guess my question is: why is it so batshit crazy to suggest Travis Snider is a faster runner than Fred Lewis? Because of what you see on TV or because of what your brain conditions² you to assume?

¹ - Hahah, there's no context to a player's performance. DRUGS!

² - By no fault of your brain; that's just what brains do.

On Changing the Approach

I'm not about to link to the bait post written by a certain high-profile columnist on a certain major league home run leader. I won't name him either, lest his hourly self-Googling register another notch on his trollbelt. A classic case of a column turned in drenched with smirking self-satisfaction. Goading bloggers and commenters to take the bait as he proudly turns heel, much to the delight of his editors. A true tourist who likely needs a map to find the Rogers Centre, I don't think his words carry a lot of weight in the Blue Jays clubhouse.

The frustrating part, for me, is that he's a quarter right when he says it's baseball's fault. Baseball's fault for doing nothing to alter the pre-determined narrative that steroids help home runs hitters hit more home runs, ignoring the burden of proof and jumping past the obvious benefactors (pitchers) to cast a pall on a generation of highly-tuned athletes.

We're to ignore a generation that, instead of playing baseball in between harvests at Pa's wheat farm, grew up with specialized trainers and hitting coaches from the age of 13. Ignore the shrinking ballparks and tightly-wound balls and complete irresponsibility of teams when it came to protecting their young arms. Ignore advances in video technology that made everyone a better hitter. At the same time, ignore the ban on amphetamines when anointing this The Year of the Pitcher.

None of that stuff matters because a significant chunk of the writer's association feels — at the behest of their readership, it should be said — that steroids are cheating and cheating is bad. It cheats the game and the fans, and anything that could be described as random must be fishy.

The stupid thing is baseball is the only sport burdened by the "guilty 'til proven innocent, and then still assumed guilty" attitude. Chris Johnson added 50 yards to his yard/game from one year to the next - is he on drugs? Are there whispers? No.

Which brings me to the idea of "changing one's approach." I came into this season doubting Jose Bautista's ability to put up the kind of numbers over time. We're currently approaching one full calender year and some 700-odd of sustained, eye-popping success. At some point a hot streak becomes a little bit more.

I like to think my cynicism had more to do with true talent level not matching performance, so I sought more information. I looked for holes in his game and stayed guarded about his power surge, though the thought of "he must be juicing" never once entered my head. Mostly because I don't care, but I figured muscles aren't the be all and end all. If they were, wouldn't Gabe Kapler win the Triple Crown every year?

When you're a big-time columnist spread thin, you don't have time to look things up or fashion crude MS Paint diagrams. You shoot from the hip and wait for the red light to come on so you can re-iterate the same points. You spent enough time spitting up half-baked thoughts on TV, you can't expect accountability for them all.

Back to Jose Bautista - there is a great deal to be said for his change in approach. As a young player battling for playing time, a guy like Bautista isn't exactly empowered to go for broke in every at bat. Teams smartly discourage their young bats from giving away at bats - put a guy with a quick bat in the midst of enablers who don't mind the odd whiff and strange things happen.

Putting a similar spin on other sports, imagine if a grinder like Steve Begin or Max Talbot suddenly starting playing like Phil Kessel; lingering around the blue line waiting for breakouts, shooting from all angles and at all times. Now imagine a coach sees talent in said glue guy and plays him on the powerplay and pairs him with a setup man of some regard. Suddenly, his numbers skyrocket! HE MUST BE ON DRUGS! Of course not, not when considered within the context provided.

To spit in the ocean a little further, imagine Jose Calderon fancied himself a Spanish version of Allen Iverson circa-2001. He broke down the defense at every opportunity, took 45% of his teams' shots and turned the ball over with reckless abandon. But he averages 28 a night! DRUGS!

Nope, nobody would ever say that about two guys who would certainly benefit a lot more from additional strength and power than somebody trying to decide which pitch thrown at 90 mph from 60 feet away is suitable to hit.

But if you're a "questionable" baseball slugger, you don't get context. You don't get the benefit of thought, let alone doubt. Sudden boost or power? DRUGS. More home runs for the Jays? DRUGS DRUGS DRUGS EVERYBODY! Don't waste your time with details like fly ball rates (increased!), contact rates (increased!), or mechanical adjustments. If a guy like Bautista can hit this many home runs, he'd have been doing it all along! It's that simple, and it's that lazy.

Jose Bautista may never have a season like this again, and we all saw this backlash coming, but that doesn't make what this goof did any less cheap or lazy. Congrats to the editors who reveal in such cynical fan-baiting and encouragement of such insincere bullshit. You must be so proud of your author's willingness to brush aside calls for proof or evidence as "too funny." Considering the source, I'll do well in the future to always assume the worst.

Image courtesy of Reuters via Daylife.

What's a Rzepczynski Worth?

The endless debate that is Marc Rzepczynski rages on within the Blue Jays blogosphere. In the previous post on this very site, the talk went back and forth between "I think R-Zep makes a fine swingman" and "I think he's a great 5th starter." As you likely know by now, I'm firmly in the latter camp. In fact, I think he's better than a fifth starter. Whether he gets a chance to prove it in Toronto is another story.

Marc Rzepczynski showed his best stuff last weekend in a start against the Angels. The two-seamer was diving and the ground balls rolled like heads at Sportsnet One if Bell doesn't sign on. It was a virtuoso performance.

One start later, R-Zep struggled badly against the weirdest team in baseball aka the Oakland A's. (Seriously, what an odd collection of oddities. ) What was the problem? Not enough sink in the sinker? Let's take a look, though I think the answer is much more obvious.



Remember this is our movement chart, plotting horizontal movement against vertical. I moved away from using this plot because it gets quite muddy. We see a little less horizontal break on the curve, for what that's worth. The fastball/sinker/changeup area looks a little muddy. Let's try to clean it up by measuring vertical break against the velocity of the pitch.



A little more clear, but nothing jumps out as being an obvious cause of his struggles. Am I overthinking? Looking for flat fastballs when the culprit lies elsewhere? It wouldn't be the first time I look for something cool and gimmicky when the answer is just good, old-fashioned, suckiness. Allow me to present what will have to stand in for The Smoking Gun.

	Angels	A's
Batters Faced	25	21
Ahead 0-1	13	8
Ahead 0-2	5	2
Behind 2-0	ZERO!!!	6
Whiffs	8	2

There really isn't much more to add. Get ahead. R-Zep already gets life-saving ground balls (50% of the time) and misses a few bats here and there. Just get ahead. Strike one - the most important pitch in baseball. Simple but effective.

If it was as easy to throw strike one as it is to say "get ahead", this wouldn't be an issue. But, again, all this stuff adds up to a guy like Marc Rzepczynski being a valuable guy as the Jays move forward. If Jesse Litsch was a good fifth starter then somebody with R-Zep's skill set can be much more. People love to focus on big righties like Chad Jenkins or Henderson Alvarez, but I think Marc Rzepczynski might be one to hold on to.