Contrast & Compare

After tackling the great WAR divide for positional players, it is only logical we examine the way value is determined for pitchers. Not nearly as uniform or tidy as batter Wins, as we will soon see.

The biggest difference between Fangraphs WAR and Rally WAR is FIP. Fangraphs attempts to isolate the factors controlled by the pitcher¹ (strikeouts, walks, and home runs) and work from there. They don't make "corrections" for defense because the figures they incorporate come pre-stripped of defensive meddling.

Rally WAR (pioneered by Sean Smith, a very smart guy who now works for an unnamed big league team) starts with runs allowed and works backwards. rWAR makes adjustment to the replacement level runs based on the quality of defense (Total Zone derived) and ballpark (derived using magic and answering the bridge troll's riddles three.)

While FIP and its brethren are good and runs against seems uncouth and cruel, it turns out run allowed per 9 innings pitched has the greatest correlation for year-to-year performance. So I can see value in each of these methods.

This schism within the nerd herd threatens to split the fraternal brotherhood like nothing since Princess Lea in the Gold Bikini versus the Canadian broad on BSG. The great love of over-complication called out by the simplistic. WHO WILL TRIUMPH???

As it turns out, us. The functionally nerdy benefit from the spastic yelps of socially-bereft savants lurking in dark corners of the computer supply store. Let's see how it shakes down. First is Baseball Reference's version with Fangraphs below. The rWAR sits on both for comparison purposes.

Name	IP	GS	R	Rrep	Rdef	aLI	RAR	rWAR
Brandon Morrow	146.1	26	76	92	0	1	16	1.6
Brett Cecil	172.2	28	87	109	0	0.9	22	2.2
Brian Tallet	77.1	5	60	45	0	0.8	-15	-1.4
Casey Janssen	68.2	0	29	38	0	0.4	9	0.7
Dana Eveland	44.2	9	35	27	0	1	-8	-0.8
David Purcey	34	0	16	19	0	0.4	3	0.2
Jason Frasor	63.2	0	30	36	0	1.1	6	0.6
Jesse Carlson	13.2	0	7	8	0	0.8	1	0.1
Kevin Gregg	59	0	24	32	0	2.1	8	1.3
Kyle Drabek	17	3	9	10	0	1	1	0.1
Marc Rzepczynski	63.2	12	37	39	0	1	2	0.2
Ricky Romero	210	32	98	130	0	1.1	32	3.4
Scott Downs	61.1	0	19	33	0	1.5	14	1.8
Shaun Marcum	195.1	31	84	121	0	1	37	3.8
Shawn Camp	72.1	0	26	40	0	1.2	14	1.5
Shawn Hill	20.2	4	8	12	0	1.1	4	0.4

Name	Start-IP	Relieving	Relief-IP	fWAR	(rWAR)
Brandon Morrow	146.3	0.0	0.0	3.7	1.6
Brett Cecil	172.7	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.2
Brian Tallet	27.3	-13.2	50	-1.5	-1.4
Casey Janssen	0.0	3.4	68.7	0.4	0.7
Dana Eveland	44.7	0.0	0.0	0.1	-0.8
David Purcey	0.0	2.4	34	0.2	0.2
Jason Frasor	0.0	8.6	63.7	0.9	0.6
Jesse Carlson	0.0	-2.6	13.7	-0.3	0.1
Kevin Gregg	0.0	7.8	59	0.8	1.3
Kyle Drabek	17	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1
Marc Rzepczynski	62.7	0.7	1	0.5	0.2
Ricky Romero	210	0.0	0.0	4	3.4
Scott Downs	0.0	11.8	61.3	1.2	1.8
Shaun Marcum	195.3	0.0	0.0	3.5	3.8
Shawn Camp	0.0	2.6	72.3	0.3	1.5
Shawn Hill	20.7	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.4

Weep for Brandon Morrow. Deprived of his gaudy components, Morrow is left to rot as a below-average starter. You know that isn't true, and I know that isn't true, but runs allowed shows no mercy.

Notice the lack of defensive adjustment afforded any Jays pitchers. Total Zone ranks the Jays as pretty much neutral, which is hard to argue unless you try. I can't imagine what sort of ballpark factor is included but if it doesn't cut the Jays plethora of lefties a break then consider me highly dubious.

Relievers who pitch loads high-leverage innings benefit greatly under the Rally system. The adjustment for leverage index/saving grace of runs allowed pumps up the value of both Shawn Camp and Kevin Gregg. I prefer to think of relievers as interchangeable, with the replacement bar set very high as other guys on the same staff can often step into bigger or higher-leveraged roles without issue.

One thing both systems — and all of humanity, I trust — can agree on: Brian Tallet is terrible. That Baseball Reference and Fangraphs can join in chorus proclaiming Brian Tallet is fundamentally awful gives me hope through this dark and gloomy holiday season. Hallelujah!

¹ - This is contentious assumption number 1 of many. But we soldier on.

Thanks again to Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for the data. And Modern Life is War for actually writing a song with a decent payoff.