Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Burn After Reading

The cabal of eggheads that run Fangraphs recently added pitching win values to the sundry high-quality stats they provide. Wins above average combined with the going rate of approx $6 million per win (going, going gone with a little collusive lubrication), we can determine a player's value on the open market. The math behind these numbers is dizzying, so I'll make like your sister's prick "boyfriend du jour" that shows up unannounced at your Christmas dinner and take only the white meat.

Here's hoping that nobody from Rogers happens to glance at this collection of values, as Roy Halladay's value over the last few years has been at or above $20 million per season, including a dizzying $27 million bucks after his stellar 2008. Remember, he took a substantial hometown discount so he was only* paid $12 million in 2008. Holy shit, if they realize signing him to an extension will cost them in AT LEAST $20 million per year, he'll be shipped out for the first bag of balls they're offered.

A.J. Burnett's standout opt-out season netted him a big raise from the Yankees, averaging $18.5 million per year. According to FG's numbers, his 2008 season would have been worth......$18.3 million dollars. That Cashman is crazy like a fox.

Though he represents a reasonable bargain, Scott Downs's excellence still doesn't yield too big a difference (+1 win) from an "average player". Even though he generally pitches in high leverage situations, he ranked 0.7 wins behind similar LOOGY J.P. Howell. Many of the Jays young arms are signed to cheap entry-level deals, so anything they give you above replacement is money in your pocket. Jesse Litsch's decent season was worth 1.4 wins or $6.2 million bucks, a far cry from his $400 000 salary.

So please Rogers suits, don't read up on Win Values or do any investigating about Roy Halladay's true worth. Think about the crisis of confidence all your consumers would have if you shipped him out! Cost benefit analysis, you MBA shmuck! For the love of god, just give him what he deserves!

* - Yes, $12 million dollars is an ungodly amount of money. But skill sets, revenue, supply/demand. You know all this stuff. If you don't, write a letter to the editor of your local Sun Media publication.


  1. An iPhone is a cartoon version of a Blackberry.

    Would it be lame if I wrote Doc a thank you letter?

  2. Hallday is priceless. He SHOULD be making atleast 20 million per year - it will be interesting to see what kind of contract extension package they come up with.

  3. Just pay him. He's fun to watch. It's all I want to do.

  4. Cloning Roy Halladay should be looked at closely by the Jays brass.

  5. He IS the perfect specimen. Just in case, Roy and Brandy better start pumping out some future Cy Young winners.

  6. Damn, I can't get Scott Downs to do squat in '2k8. After reading that, I'm going to up his allowance.


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