Spin Cycle

A couple really quick thoughts on this week of nightmarish P.R. for the Jays. Firstly, the attendance is pisspoor and there is no argument to be made otherwise. Beeston can spin it however he likes, but the fact remains: people aren't lining up to be pummeled with advertising in an antiseptic environment while watching a bad baseball team. That said, the entire "Doc was pitching!" rationale is faulty.

Walk ups are such a small part of the ticket sales, the vast majority of ticket buyers (the customers Rogers needs most) buy their tickets well in advance and make a day of it. The number of "hey, Doc's pitching why don't we head to the park" sales are minimal and likely viewed as free money by the team. As the Tao said with an assist to Malcolm Gladwell: Halladay himself won't make people buy tickets but his absence could certainly preclude them from doing so.

The local media really picked up the "smallest crowd" factoid and ran with it, an unfortunate and not entirely fair but understandable move. Beeston or whomever he dumps this Cleveland Steamer on have a hell of a P.R. task in front of them. If Paul and friends thought the caretaker business plan of trotting out the old dogs and riding the Cito Nostalgia Fixed Gear Bicycle of Wellness until his skinny jeans tore in the chain would buy him indefinite grace; boy was he wrong. My indifference (bordering on hostility) towards the wise and benevolent Beeston and his free pass is well documented, no need to compound the shitty feelings now.

Cito V. The Rod

Again, I call spin and think people are looking for ways to tear this team down. Would a player's manager like Cito really go out of his way to make a player look that bad in public? Considering only get pieces of the exchange, I interpret Cito's comments to mean "he's played so well, we won't be able to afford him next year." That would jibe with Cito's desire for the players to love him and his apparent disdain for the front office. It reminds of the situation in San Francisco, where manager Bruce Bochy defiantly refuses to play wunderkind Buster Posey to stick it to a front office that (may have) leveraged Posey to chase noted handful Bengie Molina back to work.

Managers like Cito and Bochy love to prove to the players how "on their side' they are by passively telling management to fuck off. I know I used to manage my team at my previous job(s) that exact way. Stealing minutes at the cracker factory is one thing, stealing fans money and will to live by sticking with Kevin Millar/Bengie Molina is bad business and bad form. For Cito to have shown up Rod in this manner would be completely out of character. I call shenanigans. Sadly I doubt we'll get the whole story.

Add It Up

It didn't take too many ringing line drives careening around a 80% empty Rogers Centre before I dove headlong into something interesting: win probability added. WPA is a wonderful thing, one I wish would gain more traction outside the Nerd Herd. Unfortunately, if ever a stat was in need of a rebrand, it's WPA. Click here if you'd like a full definition of Win Probability Added. Old school types should eat it up for its ability to elevate the clutch while de-emphasizing the usual counting stat nonsense.

Again, a rebrand is in order. Drop the tweedy "probability" from the name and go with something that pops like "grititude" or "total awesomesness." Total Awesomeness Added is a stat I can get behind. Perhaps take it in a more bonered direction; like Overall Engorgement Factor or EDHM (Equivalent Dry Hump Minutes.)

Johnny Mac's big home run the other day got me thinking and looking at individual WPA contributions this year. That context is the main driver behind WPA cuts both ways. It can undermine an otherwise dominant performance (as you'll see below) because the game just isn't close enough. But this is a "team game" after all and winning is everything. So just which hitter made the biggest single contribution to a Jays win thus far in 2009?

Name	WPA	W5
Aaron Hill	0.728	May 2, 5-4 (11) v. Baltimore
Adam Lind	0.721	May 5, 10-6 v. Cleveland
Still the GBOAT	0.630	June 16, 8-3 (10) v. Philadelphia
Aaron Hill	0.611	April 7, 5-4 v. Detroit
Lyle Overbay	0.475	April 18, 4-2 (12) v. Oakland
Rod Barajas	0.473	August 26 3-2 v. Tampa Bay
Aaron Hill	0.413	August 1, 6-5 v. Oakland
Aaron Hill(!)	0.396	May 27, 10-12 v. Baltimore
Travis Snider	0.390	April 13, 8-6 v. Minnesota

Thoughts or concerns? Lots of extra innings as the added leverage really jacks up the win probability. Also, Aaron Hill is apparently vastly underpaid. 5 of the offense's top 10 games this season, including one loss? Shocking. I am shocked. Barajas accomplished his 0.473 of a win in just one at bat, a pinch hit, game tying affair with the Rays. Remember when Travis Snider hit those two home runs that one game? Yeah, that was awesome. How about the pitchers?

Name	WPA	W5
Roy Halladay	0.458	May 22, 0-1 v. Atlanta
Ricky Romero	0.443	April 19, 1-0 v. Oakland
Roy Halladay	0.430	July 19, 3-1 v. Boston
Ricky Romero	0.423	July 1, 5-0 v. Tampa Bay
Brett Cecil	0.421	July 21, 1-2 v. Cleveland
Brett Cecil	0.414	May 10, 5-0 v. Oakland
Roy Halladay	0.398	July 24, 2-4 (10) v. Tampa Bay
Brett Cecil	0.385	July 10, 2-0 v. Baltimore
Brian Tallet	0.385	August 8, 3-2 (10) v. Baltimore

Holy shit, Brett Cecil! Interesting to see Cecil & Romero up here so many times. I guess pitching yourself into and straight out of jams will keep your games tight and your WPA high. 3 losses among the top 10 games, which really says a lot about the amount of context given to WPA. Pitch to the score my ass. Brian Tallet pitching 5 innings of scoreless relief is enough to let the big man amble into the top 10.

Do you notice anything when comparing the contributions of pitchers relative to hitters? The hitting performances carry much, much more weight than solid starts. Again, context is king. Creating a positive event weights that much heavily than preempting negative events before they occur. In other words, it takes a lot to build a large WPA pitching while for hitters it comes in bunches. Again, extra innings helps a lot. Consider Brandon League's three innings of ol'time killin in extra innings against the Yanks ranks ahead of Roy Halladay's one hit masterpiece (which I gave a pitch f/xing earlier this week). Two early runs and the Doc's complete domination worked against him, as it relates to WPA.

Check the list as I compiled it here. I basically took the best performances from each guy this year to a limit. I've also included something else interesting: how hugely a bad pitching performance impacts a win. Seems obvious but I was still surprised. Sadly, Brandon League has 2 of the biggest negative WPA outings of the year. A severe bed-shitting by Tallet in which he repeatedly gave away leads the offense handed him is the worst of the lot, totaling -0.681 WPA.

Thanks to Fangraphs for the WPA info and Baseball Reference for the game logs.

Wise Words of a Sage

Good old Bob Elliott, he of a zillion years of service to baseball in Canada, has an interesting feature that (apparently) only runs in the Edmonton Sun. I know! Like shouting at a deaf man. Anyway, Elliott turns to a wizened scout &mdash with whom he's surely shared numerous chili dogs and almost certainly witnessed acts of stripper degradation that would make the average Romanian wince &mdash for a feature called "The Book." Wouldn't you know it, Brandon League's turn came 'round and caught my eye. Take it away MAJOR LEAGUE SCOUT:

He has always been a perplexing guy to me. In Texas the other night, in the doubleheader, he was 94-95 m.p.h. He walks two and gives up two runs, one earned. He should be better than that.

Well yeah, that's sort of League's deal. He should indeed be better than that, but if he threw hard and that's it I'm sure he'd be done by now. Lots of people throw hard, very few throw it like a damn whiffleball. What else, holder of my dream job?

Then, I see him against the Yankees and he is 96-97 m.p.h., and he's clean. I know guys aren't machines, but it's like: 'Oh, it's the Yankees, we'll dial it up a notch.' That's been the case with Toronto for some time. They get excited when they play Boston or the Yankees. Other teams? It's like: 'Game today?' Alex Rios was like that, too.

This is slightly unsettling. That League dominates the Yankees isn't news (Tabby went on and on over the weekend, mere days after I posted this.) I recall a very similar charge being leveled against Vernon Wells. Other than this year, that held true. Troubling indeed. Back to League

WEAKNESS: "When you have that kind of an arm you expect better than five losses and seven blown saves. Maybe that's just me, but he can lose his focus."

The blown saves are unfortunate but a little misleading. Maybe not misleading, but they sound worse than they are. He isn't a ninth inning guy (yet!), so it isn't as though he blew saves in the Brad Lidge sense. Not being in a position to pick up wins too often (i.e. pitching in relief for the damn Blue Jays) doesn't help offset the optical burden of all the losses.

STRENGTHS: "The good Lord blessed his arm. He can be overpowering. Look at his strikeouts to innings. A lot of teams asked for him this year and last. I wouldn't deal him. Some day the light is going to go on, he'll figure it out."

A lot of teams asked for him? That's because a lot of teams are smart. Just like JP, as it turns out. The strikeouts to innings comment is bang on. League currently sports a career-high K/9 of 9.28 thanks to his whiff rate jumping through the roof into some pretty heady company.

Ol'Bob goes on to give Brandon League a not-subjective-or-meaningless-in-the-least 2 out of 5 rating this season. That sounds about right? Brandon League is almost "there" but hasn't quite reached the point where he's completely trustworthy or praiseworthy. The Jays have invested a great deal to this point; here's hoping they don't give up now.

Image obviously stolen from Eye On Springfield. P.S. I love Bob Elliott.

In Other Fetishized Bit Player News

Rocco returned to Tampa and hit a towering home run (hooray for video!) on the very first pitch he saw in his second ever start as a visitor. The 3 dozen Tampa fans and 20000 gathered Red Sox horde gave Rocco a nice standing ovation, something I'm sure he appreciated. Quietly (as quietly as a Red Sock can do anything, so about as loud as your kid sister after 4 Pomtinis) Rocco is coaxing his OPS back up over .800, with 7 home runs in 138 PAs.

Basically, Rocco offers a Rocco-sized contribution. Most of his rates are right on his career numbers though his home run per fly ball is still a little high. Rocco in Boston is working out almost exactly to plan with two unfortunate trips to the DL thrown in for good measure. Playing for the Red Sox put a slight damper on my all-consuming Rocco love but, considering the way things are looking around here ahead of this long weekend, this seemed like as good a time as any to resurrect the Rocco love train.

Yup, long weekend. Do something fun. Watch the Jays and appreciate whatever you can find to appreciated. Grab your damn glove and heave a ball at your best friend's head with Jerry & Alan on the radio. Read Jon Hale's continuing work with Hit F/x at The Hardball Times. Read Jimjam and Manny's ongoing adventures at the Dugout. Just enjoy baseball. This season is surely trying our last nerve, but we'll miss it like crazy when it's gone.

Photo by AP via Daylife with an assist to the Providence Journal

Niche Marketing

Everyone is good at something. Brandon League is good at confounding Blue Jays fans. For fun, let's check out Brandon League's splits by team. Who is he best again? Who has his number in 2009?

Split	G	PA	H	HR	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GDP	HBP	BAbip
California Angels	2	11	4	0		.364	.364	.364	.727	1	0	.400
Atlanta Braves	1	5	2	0		.400	.400	.600	1.000	0	0	.500
Baltimore Orioles	3	21	7	0	5.00	.350	.381	.450	.831	1	0	.467
Boston Red Sox	6	26	4	1	10.00	.167	.231	.292	.522	0	1	.231
Chicago White Sox	2	7	0	0	0.00	.000	.429	.000	.429	2	0	.000
Cincinnati Reds	2	10	2	0	1.00	.286	.444	.429	.873	0	1	.333
Cleveland Indians	4	25	9	1	1.00	.450	.542	.700	1.242	2	2	.471
Detroit Tigers	2	8	3	0		.375	.375	.375	.750	0	0	.429
Florida Marlins	2	15	7	2	3.00	.538	.600	1.154	1.754	0	1	.625
Kansas City Royals	2	9	0	0		.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	.000
Minnesota Twins	1	3	0	0		.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	.000
New York Yankees	8	35	6	0	6.00	.188	.235	.250	.485	1	0	.300
Oakland Athletics	2	13	3	0	0.00	.273	.385	.455	.839	0	0	.273
Philadelphia Phillies	4	16	4	1		.250	.250	.563	.813	0	0	.333
Seattle Mariners	1	3	0	0		.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	.000
Tampa Bay Rays	8	43	11	3	2.40	.297	.395	.595	.990	1	1	.364
Texas Rangers	4	15	2	0	2.50	.154	.267	.154	.421	1	0	.250
Washington Nationals	2	5	0	0		.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	.000
Inter-League	11	51	15	3	6.50	.326	.380	.652	1.032	0	2	.400

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/4/2009.

Wow. Somehow, Brandon League completely owns the Yankees. He has his entire career. The number one offense in baseball in terms of runs, home runs, wOBA, walks, pretty much any number you could use to evaluate an offense. Yet Brandon League holds them to .464 OPS. Also note his K/BB ratio of TEN TO ONE in 7 appearances versus the Red Sox. Try to ignore the savage beatings he took at the hands of the National League. How in God's name does this happen??

Last night he sandwiched a lonely double & sac bunt with a two fly outs and two strike outs (with the patented Brandon League wild pitch thrown in for flavor). He struck out Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira, a feat unto itself. It makes such a small amount of sense that a team traditionally chock full of power hitting lefties gets run over by League consistently while a more slap-dash team like the Rays completely owns him. Let's revive the speed * vertical break graph from a few weeks ago to see what he had last night.


So the blue dots are a combination of three separate outings; some good, some bad. Green was last night's outing against the Yankees, red is the legendary 3 inning ball gag and whips outing in the Bronx. What does this tell me? His stuff during the extra innings marathon was nuts. Insane. Last night he kept the Yankees at bay with pretty much is standard arsenal. None of this explains why League owns the Yanks or why he's so inconsistent though. What about spin?



That is a little messy. Generally, speed versus spin direction angle charts show much more distinct patterns (like this), grouping pitches nicely to ease identification. With Brandon League we get a typical clusterfuck that leaves me scratching my head. Apparently Brandon League can't do a couple things:

1. Maintain a consistent release point/arm angle to support a repeatable breaking ball or
2. He throws a second breaking pitch so badly it is nearly indistinguishable from his splitter.

I could be wrong, but I think it's the former. League's split fingered pitch is essentially to keeping hitters off his dangerous fastball, especially on days when it isn't doing what it's supposed to.

The real question is: will I ever "crack the case" on Brandon League? Will I one day discover the key to his future success, to dozens of saves and healthy paychecks? Probably not. But if you've been reading this site for long enough you know I'm having a great time trying to figure it out.

Thanks to Brooks for the pitch data, B-R for the splits, and Daylife for the photo

Cito's Beard

This is Kevin Millar. I'm sure you know all about Kevin Millar, as just about every single blog or media outlet has written a post decrying his continued employment this year. So it will come as no big shock to you that Kevin Millar sucks. Terribly. Awfully.

                                                   
Split         PA AB  H HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
April/March   38 35 12  1  3  4 .343 .395 .514 .909
May           60 55 12  2  5 12 .218 .283 .364 .647
June          57 50 10  1  7 11 .200 .298 .300 .598
July          50 45  8  1  4  8 .178 .260 .333 .593
August        29 25  6  1  4  5 .240 .345 .440 .785
Sept/Oct       4  2  0  0  2  0 .000 .500 .000 .500

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/4/2009.

Those are Kevin Millar's super swell monthly splits for 2009. Not news, not pretty. (Though the direct link BR stats are, thanks Baseball Reference for not making your tables work with blogger? I'm dumb.) Yet Cito continues to run Kevin Millar out there. With less frequency &mdash though he'll still throw in a pinch hit appearance in 5 run game with the tying run washing his balls in the clubhouse &mdash but he still finds his way in. Why? Because Kevin Millar is a built in "Get out of jail free" card.

How can Cito be held responsible for this mess given the meager tools he has before him? Is it Cito's fault Randy Ruiz wasn't called up until August? Of course not, though it was Cito's idea to start Adam Lind every day. For sure. Cito is made of magic you see, he only gets credit for things that go well while dodging all manner of shit.

Like Stoeten said yesterday, I really like the idea of Cito. But just like going to see movies based on toys of your youth is stupid and regressive, supporting Cito just cause isn't any wiser. It's quite telling that the Jays best hitter by far does so with a very non-Cito/Tennaci approach. Varied spray chart, patient, takes the first pitch almost without fail.

Obviously Cito isn't to blame for all the Jays misery, but at least some guilt must attach itself to the Teflon Glare. The offense is in the tank because the players aren't good enough, but isn't coaching'em up supposed to be his thing? I don't know, it just seems the odd lineup choices are a convenient way of washing one's hands of the whole fiasco.

The Blue Jays Offer Invaluable Service to Fans Everywhere

Replacements - Bastards Of Young
The concept of VORP or WAR or any of the various statistics which tout the mythical "replacement player" can be confusing to the casual fan or non-geek first toeing the SABR waters. Who is this replacement-level player? Who is he replacing? Is it like average?

The replacement player is the 26th man on any team; a guy freely available to any team for a very minimal investment. The proverbial "guy off the street/man out of the stands" filling in for a more capable player.

If this definition is still too hazy, too abstract for you to fully grasp the concept, allow me to introduce your 2009 Toronto Blue Jays. The late season edition of the 2009 Toronto Blue Jays any way. These Jays starting lineup featured 8 players at or near replacement level during their weekend series with the Rangers.

Westerberg in Question	WAR
Rod Barajas	0.8
Randy Ruiz	0.4
Jose Bautista	0.3
John MacDonald	0.1
Raul Chavez	0.1
Joe Inglett	-0.3
Kevin Millar	-0.4
Edwin Encarnacion	-0.4
Travis Snider	-0.4
Vernon Wells	-0.9

Now, not even I am dumb enough to suggest these are all "replacement players." Vernon Wells is having a terrible year and capable of much more, also his enormous contract makes him irreplaceable. Travis Snider is 21 and still learning his way, 9 Ks at a time. Randy Ruiz's boom or bust start to his Blue Jays career is only replacement level because of his limited at bats. Were he to play a full season at DH, he'd surely amass 200 strikeouts, 20 home runs and 10 doubles be worth 2 wins above replacement.

As I stated before, the moving target that is catcher's defensive evaluation keeps us from getting a true sense of Barajas's value. He's hit a bunch of home runs this week (two last night!) but don't get it twisted, he was terrible for a long, long time. Offensively he's been worse than many catchers that don't get nearly the at bats Rod does. Chavez doesn't get enough starts but he can't hit so what does it matter?

The rest? What's left is the true definition of replacement level. Guys with 50 PAs minimum (about 10 starts) that could easily be replaced by any available baseball talent. Millar, Inglett, Bautista, Johnny Mac, E5; they've seen reasonable amounts of playing time with as close to nothing to show for it as possible. Kinda sad.

The worst part of it is there isn't anyone beating down the door. The only players being blocked are Brian Dopriak aka Randy Ruiz 1.2 and quad A Buck Coats. All the food is on the table honey, looks like a lean Christmas this year.

A Few Random Thoughts

• I find it really interesting when Jays fans get all riled up over Sportsnet showing the Fenway Faithfuls singing "Sweet Caroline." The Jays are about the most soulless, bland, corporate, and guileless organization around. What's wrong with something with a bit of character? Don't we all constantly whine about the sterile atmosphere at the Dome? Let them sing and let Sportsnet broadcast it, it's a part of the game and that's the show you're watching.
  
  
• Another question along a similar line: are we fans unhappy with a lack of homerism from the Jays broadcast team? This shocks me, as nothing is worse than a cheerleader in the booth. Tom and Jerry never pretended only one team was on the field, I salute the numerous Jays broadcasters for avoiding the Hawk/Swirsk brand of blather. If Rod Black is praising Dustin Pedroia it's because he can play. We all hate on out-of-market announcers that do the same, we can't have it both ways.
  
  
• Listen to the Walkoff Walk Podcast. Seriously. We do it live every Monday, but you can download it after the fact via Itunes or by clicking the fancy button on the right. I mention the Blue jays every single show because I'm biased and my scope of knowledge is narrow.
  
  
• Not so narrow that I can't tell your 50 ways you could better live your life. I contributed A Handsome Man's Guide to Golf over at valued reader and rakish gadabout Archimedies home base; The Handsome Man's Guide to Life. I've played a lot of golf and done a lot of awesome stuff so consider yourself in good hands. Check it out and drop some valued golf/life nuggets of your own.

The Cult of the Unknown Commodity Strikes Again

Allow me to throw my hat in a very crowded ring by announcing the Jays should sign Matt Murton. I'd say at least half the "serious" team-specific baseball blogs around have already made such a claim for their moribund franchises, and while this site is anything but serious, I am both contractually and spiritually obligated to regurgitate anything Dave Cameron says 4 months after he says it. Murton was DFA'd by the streaking Rockies in favor of a middling middle reliever, which says plenty about the Rockies outfield depth as well as the impact of high altitude on your brain. I caught some of the Rockies-Giants game the other night and found myself eying both Ryan Spillboroughs (too old) and Seth Smith (too left-handed and too good) until I realized Murton is perfect for the Jays for a million reasons.

The greedy bastards at DRays Bay believe the Rays should acquire him (you've got Matt Joyce, bugger off), and it makes so much sense I'm surprised the smart men behind Bluebird Banter haven't already made a similar pitch. He's young, cheap, and can hit; much like the existing core of Blue Jays outfield talent. Unlike Snider and Lind, Murton is right handed and capable in the outfield. That, my friends, makes him a valuable Blue Jay.

That I've convinced myself of Matt Murton's greatness to a degree that not only should the Jays take steps to acquire him, in my brain they already have says a lot of this team's recent past. The Tao mentioned bad roster management as a source of major frustration and he's exactly right. I made a similar point a couple weeks ago, using a few more words and a lot less clarity, but the point remains: any team on a budget needs to get the most out of all 25 spots. This one doesn't. Worse yet, underusing players who appear capable and overusing abundantly incapable ones robs us fans of the one thing we're all so eager to share: hope.

There is no hope in a Millar, a Wilkerson, a Mench, or even a Bautista. There is only pleading. "Please, please do that thing you did before. You don't even have to do it as well, just a reasonable facsimile will suffice." The young studs offer glimpses to the future while the filler around them constantly remind us of the grim present.

A younger guy like Murton isn't a retread, isn't coasting on his professionalism or reputation. He'd have something to prove as a fourth outfielder/occasional DH. Lind, Snider, Murton alternating between DH, left and right until something better came along, a scenario JP exploits perfectly with the arms but fails to replicate with the bats.

Of course it sounds good, you'll say. Aren't you just fetishizing another AAAA bat with a decent outfield glove? A league average player cut loose by a team in the thick of a pennant race? If he was The Answer, the Jays couldn't pick him up for a song.

Simply put; he doesn't have to be The Answer, he just needs to be what he already is and play. Fill in, hit lefties, catch the ball, make a name rather than get by on one. He could be everything Reed Johnson was before he became too expensive to be it. Throw up one good season, have one year in which everything comes together and you'll be getting second chances for 5-6 years. This is your chance to be washed up one day! This is the year you transition from never-was to has-been!

The apparent and/or imminent youth movement needs more youth, since the Jays are one of the oldest teams in baseball. Hardly an enviable position when your window is somewhere between closing fast and re-opening on the other side. Bringing in a younger guy with a future, no matter how bleak, will always be preferable to the leather ass of a big league grinder with nothing left to give.

Image courtesy of Flickr user Rich Brome

Sado-Masochism: To Go!

The lively commentary in the post below is really inspiring and something I'm proud of. Awesome to see people come together and exchange ideas without a single person's sexuality being questioned. I chalk that up to my over-the-top Ace & Garyness. Anyway, two shaky points before I leave this topic for a while.

Team Salary Considerations

It is very true that six of baseball's playoff spots are currently inhabited by teams within the top 8 payrolls. BUT! Via Cots, we see the 13th and 21st ranked teams hold down the other two, with the 19th and 25th ranked teams within 3 games in the American League Wild Card and teams 12, 14, and 30 within shouting distance in the NL. The Rays - Rangers series this past weekend? Playoffs. The Rockies - Giants weekend tilt? Playoffs.

Meanwhile, in the salary capped NBA (from Hoopshype), three of the 4 teams contesting the conference finals fall inside the top 5 payrolls in the league. 6 of the 8 teams to reach the conference semis sit inside the top 10 ten.

Because I Can't Help Myself

2008 American League Angels Rays Red Sox Yankees White Sox Twins Blue Jays &mdash .531 Cleveland	2007 American League Red Sox Indians Angels Yankees Tigers Mariners Blue Jays &mdash .512 Twins	2006 American League Yankees Twins Tigers A's White Sox Angels Blue Jays &mdash .537 Red Sox
2009 NBA Eastern Conference Cleveland Boston Orlando Atlanta Miami Chicago/Philadelphia Detroit Toronto &mdash .402	2008 NBA Eastern Conference Boston Detroit Orlando Cleveland Washington Toronto &mdash .500 Philadelphia Atlanta	2007 NBA Eastern Conference Detroit Cleveland Toronto &mdash .573 Miami Chicago New Jersey Washington Orlando

Of course the Blue Jays currently sit 10th with a .463 winning percentage. Also, this pointless exercise makes no mention of run/point differentials over the same time frame. Well shit, why don't we dive right on in???

Team	Run/Point Differential	Rank
2009 Toronto Blue Jays	+15	12th
2008 Toronto Blue Jays	+104	4th
2007 Toronto Blue Jays	+54	T-11th
2009 Toronto Raptors	-2.81	23rd
2008 Toronto Raptors	+2.9	12th
2007 Toronto Raptors	+1.0	10th

I don't even know what I'm talking about anymore!

Playoffs!!! Fire JP! Make BC the mayor! Layoffs!!!1!

Quick Thoughts on the Playoffs

Vanguard of the blogosphere Eyebeleaf of Sports and the City posted a typically passionate piece this week, hoping for a salary cap/floor in baseball to help level the playing field. While it remains true that spending money is the best way to reach the post season, it isn't the only way. I sincerely fail to see how a salary cap benefits anyone, as though it is the key to competitive balance and renewed hope for the downtrodden.

Without getting too deeply into the vagaries of why using the NFL as a model is reckless, why dictating organizations spending habits simply doesn't help, why stupid organizations will always be stupid, I wanted to address another point attached to this debate: opening the playoffs to more teams. This idea, as it relates to baseball, makes me sad.

The playoffs, as currently constituted in the NBA & NHL, are a joke. As I said in the comments of the SATC post, they're a sop to fans too distracted to notice they're now being charged double for games that are no more meaningful that stretch drive games in September for a competitive team in baseball.

When the Rockies were charging down the stretch in 2007, how is that LESS significant than the Raptors being summarily dismissed by the Magic each and every year? When the Jays collapsed against the Tigers in 1987, are we to believe that weekend series meant less than the Cavaliers dismantling the Pistons this past spring?

Occasionally the rare instance of a Warriors/Mavericks or an Oilers run to the Cup final capture all our attention, but again I point to unlikely runs by the Marlins or Twins, reeling in the fast starting Tigers in 2006. Those ARE the playoffs, 30 games at a time, and you just don't have to pay double to see them. The baseball season is 162 games long, that should be plenty of time to separate the wheat from the chaff.

The salary-capped and playoff-free-for-all NBA can be one of the most frustrating leagues to watch due to its nebulous salary machinations combined with teams outright desire to tank or rig their playoff positioning. Teams actively putting out an inferior product night after night to avoid playing a tough 4 seed, hoping instead to catch a weak division winner propped up by the various playoff bracket restructurings.

I'm not pretending to dislike the notion of "making the playoffs" as a good thing, but you can't convince me the Leafs "making the playoffs" this season automatically makes it a successful year. Wow, they finished 8th and got dusted in the first round? Awesome. My Habs looked like legit Stanley Cup threats last year only to falter to a first round exit. Guess what? I don't care that they made the playoffs, they were supposed to be good. They weren't, we move on.

The recurring Blue Jays blogosphere meme "PLAYOFFS!" was fun for one good reason: making the playoffs in baseball means something and represents a legitimate success. Hopefully baseball doesn't make the same pathetic stab at placating entitled fans eager to buy a mouthful of shit packaged as Grade A steak.