The Most Well-Earned Off Day in History

In a time of such insanity, when making sense of the senseless no longer seems possible, now is the time for true positivity. The three game series against the Red Sox has the potential to galvanize the Jays like no other. What better way to regroup after the worst road trip in club history than a relatively full house against the dreaded Sox?

A few quick facts that may indicate the worst is over:

• Aaron Hill's home run yesterday was the first in 8 games. EIGHT!
  
• It was also the only positive thing done by a Blue Jay in a high leverage situation for two weeks. They've been terribly un-clutch during this streak, but surprisingly not too far off their regular amount of unclutchedness.
  
• The bullpen finally regressed. At least we can stop holding our breath!
  
• Lyle Overbay's hitting well. That's something!
  
• So desperate is Cito that he almost, kinda, sorta, juggled the lineup. Signs of life!
  
• As Stoeten points out; the Jays lost 3 one run games and two games that were essentailly one run games. A tiny amount of luck and we're talking about a bad road trip, not a cataclysmic one.
  
• They played a bunch of these games in the rain. The dome has a roof! Advantage: nullified.
  
• The starting pitching's been phenomenal. Honestly. The relief pitching, while sort of terrible, deserves a better fate. The strand rate will come up, the BABIP will go down, the ERA-FIP differential will get Rolen'd up real good.

Wilner's right. This is rock bottom. Cito's world-renowned manmanagment will come shining through. The Jays--imbued by the confidence of Citocity--will band together and shoot forth into June. That's just what happens now.

Jays Fans Express Relief Over Recent Losing Streak

Long-suffering Jays fans everywhere quietly rejoiced over the team's recent 7 game losing skid, ashamedly admitting their relief over the ability to "enjoy the summer" by escaping four months of "apprehensive fingernail chewing"

While the hot start to the season increased interest in the team, unfortunate drawbacks such as the "infusion of douchiness" around the Rogers Centre and "inability to steal a decent seat" caused dismay among loyal fans. Freeing an entire fanbase saddled with 15 years worth of disappointment that long grew "comfortable with their also-ran status" is no small victory in a town full of increasing bitter and nervous individuals.

All Jays fans paid lipservice to the first place standing at the end of May will quietly wishing for a reality check to complain about. The chorus of boos sure to rain down on Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, or anyone else unfortunate enough to not be white give less than 100% in a losing effort will be a welcome return from the chorus of boos that accompanies panic and self-doubt borne of a first place team.

Local radio analyst Mike Wilner noted recent calls place to his post-game show hadn't changed much in tenor, the tone merely resembled grasping at straws rather than the caller grasping at his own inadequacies.

The Jays oddly stacked schedule combined with streaking divisional opponents should allow the Jays to slip out of the race long enough for their now-inevitable 85 win season reach satisfying "moral victory" levels. Smartassed bloggers and other degenerates rejoice over entire winter's worth of bloviating to come!

Drag the Lake

"I take a lot of responsibility for what's going on," Wells said. "It's frustrating for everyone. When things are going poorly, guys want to do too much to get everybody out of what we're going through. It's just a matter of taking a deep breath and getting back to our approaches."

About those approaches...is the Citocity wearing off?

Vernon Wells, the much maligned star of Sunday's loss, has exactly zero hits to the opposite field this year. Zero. Nil. On balls hit up the middle, his OPS is .533. That is some extreme shit.

Consider Aaron Hill, team leader in OPS. When the ball goes up the middle, his OPS is .884. He has 36 hits in that direction. Lyle Overbay is second on the team in overall OPS thanks to his .977 mark up the middle. Alex Rios's up the middle/opposite field OPS are .590/.636. Maybe Rios & Wells could try something other than dead pull. Just try.

Daylife for the picture and Bastian for the quote

Calm, Soothing Words & Images

Let's all take a knee, shall we? All is not lost, the past can soothe our wounds!

First the Good

The 2008 AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays waltzed into Fenway park on June 3rd in first place. They were 13 games over .500, sported a run differential of +26 and a divisional edge of one half game.

They promptly lost 3 straight to the Sox to slip into second place. The Rays then split their next 6 games before destroying interleague to regain their divisional edge. They lost in the World Series.

The 2006 Detroit Tigers sort of came out of nowhere, lead their division all year long until they stumbled, losing their final 6 regular season games--including 2 of 3 to the Toronto Blue Jays--but winning enough games to claim the wildcard.

They went into a mini tailspin at the end of May losing 4 in a row and 8 of 10. Included in that swoon were 3 losses in 4 home games versus the Yankees, losing 2 of 3 at home to the Red Sox and 2 of 3 to the White Sox. They went on to win 20 games in June and lose the World Series.

The Other Kind of Good, the "Not Bad"

The 2005 Baltimore Orioles ran out to a crazy start. They were alone in first place until the end of June. At the end of May however, they were swept at home by the Detroit Tigers.

The Orioles managed to hang on for another month before losing 3 of 4 to the mighty Toronto Blue Jays sent them into a predictable yet pathetic tailspin. Those Orioles gave considerable innings to Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen and Danial fucking Cabrera which eliminates them for worthy comparison. But still, another month of first place? I'll take that.

The 2007 Milwaukee Brewers were in first place on May 21st with a 27-17 record. They went on a West Coast road trip and lost 7 in a row and 8 of 9. They were still in first place when it was over, staying there until the middle of August. The Brew Crew made a return to the top of the division mid-September before faltering down the stretch. They made the playoffs the following year (aka their for it all 2010). Again, I'll take that.

The Future

The Braves and the Orioles? That shit is good for what ails you. Then Red Sox Revenge! LET'S ALL RELAX!

Blah blah Daylife pictures blah

Shooting Donkeys in a Barrell

Adam Dunn just can't resist a little shot at Toronto when discussing interleague play:

I say just stick to the rivalry games and eliminate all the useless interleague games...people don't care about Washington against Toronto. They do care about Washington against Baltimore. So keep them and dump the rest.

Nobody cares about the Nationals Adam. Only soulless mercenaries looking for the best one year deal they can muster give a shit about the Washington Nationals shitshow. At least Dunn has the good sense to come correct later in the Stark's piece:

"It gets you out of your comfort zone," Dunn said. "You've got to learn new pitchers, and, personally, I don't like that. Believe me, I could do without seeing Roy Halladay. But I've got a feeling I'm going to have to face him."

Face him and get pwned you will, fat man.

Around the Way

• Speaking of Halladay, check out Mop Up Duty's awesome retrospective on his evolution.
  
• Bluebird Banter has a nice piece on Cito. As I think about it, I like that Cito just lets the guys go out and play, for the most part. I'm not necessarily in favor of pinch hitting but defensive subs I'm all for. I don't like his refusal to jostle the lineup from time to time because I don't think it hurts. Not for nothing, Alex Rios and Vernon Wells are 2-3 in the league in outs made. Sayin'
  
• Joe Posnanski believes Roy Halladay can win 30 games this year. WHO ARE WE TO ARGUE?
  
• According to Rutger Hauer Claws, Vernon Wells is damn near the nicest guy around. I swore I read somewhere that Vernon's greatest athletic achievement was leading his high school football team onto the field at Texas Stadium. I should now swear that I'm an idiot because it's not true. There was a "wacky" interview of Vernon by Nicki Reyes recently in which Vernon stated he hasn't had a career baseball highlight yet. I found that interesting. All the reasons people dislike Wells around here seem to be the same reasons I do. He doesn't take himself too seriously and clearly focuses on team success. Had he said "Mo Rivera walk-off in 2006" I wouldn't have been mad.
  
• Thinking of listening to L'Homme Du Sport's podcast in which he discusses Lost? Don't. Love Simmons, but his steadfast refusal to "get" Lost belies his obvious intelligence (then again, he watches a shit-tonne of idiotically exploitative "reality" TV.) Really Bill, Jack's lack of post-concussion symptoms is a sticking point for you? THE FUCKING ISLAND MOVES IN AND OUT OF TIME AND YOU NEED TO CRASH A PLANE TO GET THERE. There's more going on there Billy boy, try to keep up.

Internal Affairs

There's been a lot of talk recently surrounding the issue of booing and hating on players. I feel like my position on this is quite clear, no need to rehash it again today. The other side of this coin is the blind faith and/or limitless rope phenomenon - player X is a "valued contributor" that merely needs time to get on track. I don't exactly subscribe to this school of thought either.

As I see it, building a team/contender/profitable on-field commodity is a never-ending process. Those in charge must constantly consider and reconsider if the man they're paying to do a job is the best choice at in that role. It started this winter, when the "Scott Rolen is overpaid" chorus grew loudest. After I made my impassioned case that Scott Rolen earned his paycheck and more, wundercommenter Torgen pointed out that not only is Scott Rolen great, there isn't an immediate option that would step in to that role even remotely as well.

Stoeten of Drunk Jays Fans today brought up a very interesting point regarding Brian Tallet's tenuous spot in the rotation. (A point I was bouncing around my head on the subway ride to work. Damn you speedy Dutch bastards!) He may not last long there for two reasons: there is another role he can fill better than the current placeholder while there are plenty of people behind him that can do his job nearly as well.

Jesse Carlon's pitched exceptionally well for the Jays these last two seasons though he's run into a rough patch of late. For the season the defense has propped him up a little, shaving a full run off his ERA. Here in May however, his ERA and FIP are nearly identical, sitting right on 6.00. Carlson's a fly ball pitcher who's strikeouts are down, contact is up and whiffy swings are down. His BABIP is still too low though his strand rate is coming back to the norm. In other words, he's becoming a regular, run-of-the-mill bullpen arm rather than a Blue Jays penbot from beyond the moon.

I don't come to bury Jesse Carlson, but if the Jays are to continue their success; they must make tough decisions like this. We as fans--especially as it relates to joyless roles such as spot starter or lefty specialist--can only hope the organization makes the right one that will ensure continuous improvement. Keeping Scott Rolen made sense as he's a gift from god, one not easily replaced internally, externally, or galactically. Jesse Carlson is easily replaceable, as are Brian Tallet's starts. For the good of the club we should be willing to consider it.

Other Stuff Quickly

• The psychopaths at Fangraphs have done it again. Now freely available for your perusal: pitch type linear weights! What this tells us: basically how good many runs a given pitch provides compared to average. As usually, I have no idea where they derive these numbers but they're sure fun to look at! Roy Halladay saves 3 runs per 100 snaps of his mighty curveball for example. His fastball's been his worst pitch this year according to these findings. Same with Scott Richmond: excellent results with his slider are often given right back with his fastball. Wanna know why Brett Cecil's here to stay? Positive results with all four of his pitches, most notably his curveball. His sample size is tiny but I surely don't care.
  
• Lesley Visser hates fun and shrimp.
  
• Beyond the Box Score tracks UZR by age. Just a quick reminder that Alex Rios is 28 and Vernon Wells is 30. Their best defensive days are behind them. So much for moving Rios to centerfield. Dammit.
  
• On the Walkoff Walk Furious Five podcast this week we discussed Steve Phillips inane comments regarding Carlos Beltran. I may be of the opinion that Carlos Beltran is amazing. The playoff probability added post from the weekend featured THREE Mets in the top 5 in the NL. The Mets have an unbelievable core surrounded by shitty, replacement level players. That doesn't mean they aren't fun to watch though! In fact, I'll be live blogging their game against the mighty Dodgers tonight for the Score. Come by and say demeaning things about Juan Pierre. It's good for the soul.

And Then We All Bought Yachts

I don't have much to offer beyond directing you to Jordan Bastian's excellent piece on the defensive wizardry of the Manmountain yesterday. A brief sampling of the fine yeoman's work:

The fans inside the stadium, after being hushed in awe for a few seconds, began cheering loudly and the crowd moved to its feet. Rolen, the old-school player that he is, stood stone-faced and moved back into position for the next batter. He wasn't about to let the reaction inside the Dome break his concentration.

According to the ever-impressive Yankees Replacement Level blog, Rolen's already saved four runs with his glove this year; equal to the 17 run pace (based on 162 games) set by Evan "Universal Slurpjob" Longoria. The RLYWeblog's list features fountain-of-youth Scutaro firmly at the top and silk glove winner Lyle Overbay right alongside Rolen with 17 runs saved over a 162 season. It was my slightly held belief that the Jays defense was slipping slightly this season, but the numbers don't support it. As a unit they rank 7th in UZR and third in defensive efficiency. That the Jays even rank that high in UZR is slightly shocking considering how much the system hates Vernon Wells, though it gives his arm positive marks thus far. Either way, the defense will continue to support the burgeoning pitching staff in delightful ways.

I can't give any shout outs to Scott Rolen without a nod to his apparent nemesis Jeff Blair for his fine job subbing for Bob McCowan on Prime Time Sports yesterday.

On the Sox

They kinda suck. Well they're not playing great baseball. Mostly because of Rocco's struggles. Oh how he's struggled. Some awful numbers including 5.4% walk rate, 37.1% K rate (!!!!) for a BB/K rate of 0.15. Ugh. It adds up to an unsightly .529 OPS. Poor Rocco. You'll come around next week sir. Offensively Jason Bay has carried the Yookless Sox. Defensively he's worse than Manny. Dustin Pedroia is playing well but frankly, he can fuck right off. I'm going to say what every Jays fan knows: Aaron Hill + Green Monster = 50 doubles a year. Aaron Hill's quick swing is BUILT for that ballpark, unfortunately for him and his agent he only plays there as a visitor. Get your necktie Dustin, I'm sure they'll make them in size 6x.

A Nerdy Must Read

If you fashion yourself any kind of baseball nerd, I can't recommend this Beyond the Boxscore post on playoff probability added. It's like this: using third-order wins (luck and context neutral stats plus strength of schedule combine to establish a team's "true talent" record)and historical data (number of third order wins offers you a X% chance of making the playoffs) to get a percentage, based on WAR, that any given player gives his team to make the playoffs. Whew.

It's basically a way to sniff out the "he's the MVP because his team made the playoffs" argument. The Jays were a 92 win true talent team, meaning they had a 60% chance of making the playoffs. Roy Halladay, king of all creation, was a 7.6 win player in 2008. Remove Roy Halladay, you're left with a 84.4 win team with a 19% chance of making the playoffs. Badda boom, badda bing, Roy Halladay contributed 41% to the Blue Jays playoff chances, best in the American League. MVP Dustin Pedrioa only accounted for 16.42% of Boston's playoff team, the EXACT SAME amount as Jays shortstop Marco Scutaro. Scary stuff. I can't recommend a click through enough, but the author was kind enough to attach his/her giant spreadsheet with all the figures. I'll breakdown the Jays right here (PPA - Playoff Probability Added):

Offensive Player WAR P.P.A. Alex Rios 5.5 32.17% Scott Rolen 2.9 17.63% Marco Scutaro 2.7 16.42% Lyle Overbay 1.8 10.91% Joe Inglett 1.7 10.30% Vernon Wells 1.2 7.23% Rod Barajas/Gregg Zaun 1.2 7.23% Aaron Hill 0.5 2.97% Travis Snider/David Eckstein 0.3 1.78% Jose Bautista 0.0 0.00% Adam Lind -0.1 -0.59% Shannon Stewart/Kevin Mench -0.2 -1.17% John MacDonald -0.4 -2.32% Matt Stairs -0.5 -2.90% Brad Wilkerson -0.9 -5.45%

Pitcher WAR P.P.A. Roy Halladay 7.6 44.4% AJ Burnett 5.7 33.16% Jesse Listch 2.8 17.03% Dustin McGowan 2.4 14.60% Shaun Marcum 2.1 12.76% Scott Downs 1.4 8.45% B.J. Ryan 1.0 6.00% Scott Richmond 0.8 4.79% David Purcey 0.8 4.79% Shawn Camp 0.7 4.18% Jesse Carlson/Brian Tallet 0.7 4.18% John Parrish/Brian Wolfe 0.3 1.78% Brandon League 0.2 1.18% Jason Frasor 0.1 0.59% Armando Benitez -0.2 -1.17%

So yeah, Roy Halladay's good. Also, replacing Mencherson, Stewart & Stairs LLP with a full season of replacement level Adam Lind would increase the Jays chances of making the playoffs by nearly 10%. TEN PERCENT. Scary stuff. Please go forth and click the link to better understand the implications of this excellent research. Better yet, think of how high the Jays true talent will be for 2009! Boners.

Many thanks to the beyond incredible Eyes On Springfield Tumblr for the image

We're on a Mission from God

Once again, with the Chicago White Sox in town, we turn to our trusted Second City advisor Andrew Reilly of The 35th Street Review for some perspective on the Good Guys. Read my corresponding piece here.

I looked at the standings today, took note of who sat atop my fair city's geographic predecessor and chuckled out loud at what I saw. The papers, it seems, had erroneously printed those Blue Jaybirds of Toronto City as having won twenty-three games - two more than their competitor Red Stockings.

This is incorrect.

As you may recall, several weeks ago your Blue Jays stomped on a certain lighter-hued brand of stocking on the shank-or-be-shanked South Side of Chicago. It was quite the ugly affair, with the White Sox first embarrassed and then just made to look stupid. Fourteen to nothing? Four to three? Whatever. The 2009 White Sox are nothing if not flexible. Any of you Ghostreaders privied to the Chicago-based broadcasts probably heard our dear ambassador Ken "The Hawk" Harrelson and his partner Steve Stone explain the dynamics and complexities of the series to us, the layviewer.

"I tell you what," Hawk may have said, "that Rod Barajas, he might just be one of the best catchers I've ever seen at hitting a baseball."

This may or may not have occurred after Barajas drove in either of those two runs he contributed to your Jays' 14-0 shellacking of my White Sox, but that's irrelevant anyway. The Jays obliterated struggling Sox RHP Gavin Floyd, then two days later laughed in the Sox' collective faces as they couldn't capitalize on Roy Halladay's surrender of three earned runs. Three! Three runs against Halladay is like me getting 100 points in a game of one-on-one against LeBron James in a race to 105: you'll still probably lose, and badly at that, but the amount of room you've been given to work with is magnified considerably given the circumstances.

And those two games, I'm sorry to have to tell you, are why the Blue Jays are not in first place and also why they won't be come Tuesday morning after their probable inevitable series victory over the White Sox. Perhaps you don't pay as close attention to the Pale Hose as I do, and honestly I don't blame you. They are normally mostly ignorable, but so far this season have taken it a step further; the White Sox, at this point, simply don't count. To defeat them is worth no more than taking the day off, in both statistics and in won-loss records.

I want to take a second to encapsulate everything you need to know about this weekend's series, courtesy of the Sox' PR office's preview of Sunday's game:

White Sox: For the fourth time in seven trips to the mound, Floyd failed to post a coveted quality start. Monday's start against the Indians was actually well below the quality cut-off, as the right-hander gave up eight runs on 11 hits over five-plus innings, including two batters faced in the sixth. Floyd has a 0-2 record with a 9.74 ERA in his past four starts and has allowed more double-digit-hit games this season (two) then he did in all of 2008. Floyd already has a 0-1 record with a 10.38 ERA against the Blue Jays this year and stands at 0-2 lifetime against the Blue Jays. But Floyd has never worked at Rogers Centre.

Blue Jays: Halladay threw his first complete game of the year against the Yankees at Rogers Centre on Tuesday. He gave up one run on five hits -- matching his lowest total this season -- and struck out five. For the third time in his eight starts this year, he did not walk a single batter. He got 16 outs via ground ball, and gave up only two extra base hits, both doubles.

An epic 113 words to explain how Gavin "Wave of the Future" Floyd has fluctuated between bad and awful; seventy-one to say Halladay will either cut you up or kill you outright. I suspect this will set a record for Worst Game of All Time.

"But!" you may counter, "the White Sox aren't in last place! How bad can they be?"

A technically accurate statement, but one that breaks down upon closer inspection. Of the three basement dwellers, the Sox have lost series to two and have yet to face the third. The last series they won was a one-game homestand against the Detroit Tigers.

One game.

Detroit Tigers.

The White Sox, they of the much-vaunted offense and theoretical All-Legends Softball roster, are thirteenth in the American League in team batting average; hard to call them "sluggers" when they're twelfth in slugging, trailing even the likes of the last-in-the-East Baltimore Orioles who, by the way, beat the Sox 10-3 and 6-2 last month. Twelfth in on-base percentage, thirteenth in total bases, last in runs scored. Once upon a time, the bats were going to save them. Those were gentler times. Kinder. Sweeter, almost.

I want to go back to our much-maligned Hawk Harrelson for a second. He's going to say a lot of wacky things on the air this weekend, things about how Kevin Millar is a great professional hitter, how John McDonald reminds him of a young Derek Jeter and how baseball is really just a game where you want to make the other guy not let you get beat at the game of outguessing how that team is going to make the other not lose, and you may scratch your head for a second.

And for years I have cursed this man publicly and privately for such ramblings, questioning how he can be so oblivious to what's happening on the field and in the league to spout off such nonsense and non sequiturs instead of dispensing with actual useful, sensible information. But at times like these, I think I understand. Talk about Rod Barajas. Talk about what an honor it is to be iced by Roy Halladay. Talk about Adam Lind, Cito Gaston and a failed Ontario golf trip from twenty years ago.

Anything but the White Sox.

I suppose the Blue Jays will take at least a few games from the Sox this weekend. Worse things will happen, and I wish you no ill will, but I do ask this: please, please Blue Jays, please be the real thing. Do not let my attempted understanding of Hawkeroo go in vain; I will have died so that you may live.

CC you in Hell

Yesterday's hangover game left me feeling ambivalent about tonight's affair. Johnny Mac gets a start as Cito goes with all lefties? Sweet. I'm sure Adam Lind needs a day off after his vigorous start to the year. Another series win would certainly be a good thing. Against CC it seems less likely, except he's been damn near mortal this season.

Not true, actually. Sabathia demolished the OriLOLs with a complete game last time out. On the whole; his Ks are a little down as are his strand rate and home runs allowed. His contact numbers are slightly higher but the Jays have their hands full either way. Thus the appearance of secret offensive machine John MacDonald.

Assorted Randomness

• Holy fucking shit, The Road finally has a release date AND A TRAILER. Bonerbonerbonerboner. I'll admit I don't love the style of the trailer, but it'll likely do a better job of selling the movie to those yet to read the book than shouting "THIS MOVIE WILL INJURE YOUR SOUL AND CRUSH YOUR WILL TO LIVE." Release date is October 16th, judging by the tone of the trailer it will be a nice depressing counterpoint to the elation of the Jays playoff run. P!
  
• The good people at Beyond the Boxscore are doing what good nerds do: searching for newer and better ways to evaluate pitchers. Whiff rates, IWZ (rate of pitches inside a wider zone at the top & bottom of the strike zone), chase rates and ratio of 0-1 counts to 1-0 counts. Awesome stuff, and good indications of quality pitching. Unsurprisingly, Roy Halladay pounds the bottom and corners of the strikezone, ranking high in IWZ and A:B counts. Good to see Scott Downs all over the relievers side of things, scoring high Definitely click through and check it out.
  
• The Padres are planning a firesale. If only their roster featured something of value. Kouzmanoff for a song might be a nice complimentary piece for 2010 in exchange for a somewhat superfluous starting arm.
  
• The Baseball Analysts look at run value based on pitch type. Lots of pretty graphs and Roy Halladay's name caught my attention. I'm simple that way.

That's it for now, look for a welcome visit from a regular guest here tomorrow.

DVP image courtesy of Ace Showbiz