A Nerdy Must Read

If you fashion yourself any kind of baseball nerd, I can't recommend this Beyond the Boxscore post on playoff probability added. It's like this: using third-order wins (luck and context neutral stats plus strength of schedule combine to establish a team's "true talent" record)and historical data (number of third order wins offers you a X% chance of making the playoffs) to get a percentage, based on WAR, that any given player gives his team to make the playoffs. Whew.

It's basically a way to sniff out the "he's the MVP because his team made the playoffs" argument. The Jays were a 92 win true talent team, meaning they had a 60% chance of making the playoffs. Roy Halladay, king of all creation, was a 7.6 win player in 2008. Remove Roy Halladay, you're left with a 84.4 win team with a 19% chance of making the playoffs. Badda boom, badda bing, Roy Halladay contributed 41% to the Blue Jays playoff chances, best in the American League. MVP Dustin Pedrioa only accounted for 16.42% of Boston's playoff team, the EXACT SAME amount as Jays shortstop Marco Scutaro. Scary stuff. I can't recommend a click through enough, but the author was kind enough to attach his/her giant spreadsheet with all the figures. I'll breakdown the Jays right here (PPA - Playoff Probability Added):

Offensive Player WAR P.P.A. Alex Rios 5.5 32.17% Scott Rolen 2.9 17.63% Marco Scutaro 2.7 16.42% Lyle Overbay 1.8 10.91% Joe Inglett 1.7 10.30% Vernon Wells 1.2 7.23% Rod Barajas/Gregg Zaun 1.2 7.23% Aaron Hill 0.5 2.97% Travis Snider/David Eckstein 0.3 1.78% Jose Bautista 0.0 0.00% Adam Lind -0.1 -0.59% Shannon Stewart/Kevin Mench -0.2 -1.17% John MacDonald -0.4 -2.32% Matt Stairs -0.5 -2.90% Brad Wilkerson -0.9 -5.45%

Pitcher WAR P.P.A. Roy Halladay 7.6 44.4% AJ Burnett 5.7 33.16% Jesse Listch 2.8 17.03% Dustin McGowan 2.4 14.60% Shaun Marcum 2.1 12.76% Scott Downs 1.4 8.45% B.J. Ryan 1.0 6.00% Scott Richmond 0.8 4.79% David Purcey 0.8 4.79% Shawn Camp 0.7 4.18% Jesse Carlson/Brian Tallet 0.7 4.18% John Parrish/Brian Wolfe 0.3 1.78% Brandon League 0.2 1.18% Jason Frasor 0.1 0.59% Armando Benitez -0.2 -1.17%

So yeah, Roy Halladay's good. Also, replacing Mencherson, Stewart & Stairs LLP with a full season of replacement level Adam Lind would increase the Jays chances of making the playoffs by nearly 10%. TEN PERCENT. Scary stuff. Please go forth and click the link to better understand the implications of this excellent research. Better yet, think of how high the Jays true talent will be for 2009! Boners.

Many thanks to the beyond incredible Eyes On Springfield Tumblr for the image