Saturday, May 16, 2009

A Nerdy Must Read

If you fashion yourself any kind of baseball nerd, I can't recommend this Beyond the Boxscore post on playoff probability added. It's like this: using third-order wins (luck and context neutral stats plus strength of schedule combine to establish a team's "true talent" record)and historical data (number of third order wins offers you a X% chance of making the playoffs) to get a percentage, based on WAR, that any given player gives his team to make the playoffs. Whew.

It's basically a way to sniff out the "he's the MVP because his team made the playoffs" argument. The Jays were a 92 win true talent team, meaning they had a 60% chance of making the playoffs. Roy Halladay, king of all creation, was a 7.6 win player in 2008. Remove Roy Halladay, you're left with a 84.4 win team with a 19% chance of making the playoffs. Badda boom, badda bing, Roy Halladay contributed 41% to the Blue Jays playoff chances, best in the American League. MVP Dustin Pedrioa only accounted for 16.42% of Boston's playoff team, the EXACT SAME amount as Jays shortstop Marco Scutaro. Scary stuff. I can't recommend a click through enough, but the author was kind enough to attach his/her giant spreadsheet with all the figures. I'll breakdown the Jays right here (PPA - Playoff Probability Added):

Offensive PlayerWARP.P.A.
Alex Rios5.532.17%
Scott Rolen2.917.63%
Marco Scutaro2.716.42%
Lyle Overbay1.810.91%
Joe Inglett1.710.30%
Vernon Wells1.27.23%
Rod Barajas/Gregg Zaun1.27.23%
Aaron Hill0.52.97%
Travis Snider/David Eckstein0.31.78%
Jose Bautista0.00.00%
Adam Lind-0.1-0.59%
Shannon Stewart/Kevin Mench-0.2-1.17%
John MacDonald-0.4-2.32%
Matt Stairs-0.5-2.90%
Brad Wilkerson-0.9-5.45%

Roy Halladay7.644.4%
AJ Burnett5.733.16%
Jesse Listch2.817.03%
Dustin McGowan2.414.60%
Shaun Marcum2.112.76%
Scott Downs1.48.45%
B.J. Ryan1.06.00%
Scott Richmond0.84.79%
David Purcey0.84.79%
Shawn Camp0.74.18%
Jesse Carlson/Brian Tallet0.74.18%
John Parrish/Brian Wolfe0.31.78%
Brandon League0.21.18%
Jason Frasor0.10.59%
Armando Benitez-0.2-1.17%

So yeah, Roy Halladay's good. Also, replacing Mencherson, Stewart & Stairs LLP with a full season of replacement level Adam Lind would increase the Jays chances of making the playoffs by nearly 10%. TEN PERCENT. Scary stuff. Please go forth and click the link to better understand the implications of this excellent research. Better yet, think of how high the Jays true talent will be for 2009! Boners.

Many thanks to the beyond incredible Eyes On Springfield Tumblr for the image


  1. What's the story behind Milpool - I don't recall that episode?

  2. Holy fuck. You know what this means: we're making the fucking playoffs.

  3. Anon,

    The Simpsons get a pool, everyone loves it. Bart breaks his leg and can't go in the pool. He asks Millhouse to sign his cast and he does so but then his thoughts go elsewhere.

    It's much funnier on T.V. than what I'm describing.

    Drew, I like how you bolded Rolen. And how you're visiting tumblrs :)

  4. That post (the one linked to at the start) was fucking epic. Thanks for making me a better person by bringing it to my attention.

  5. That was also the Rear Window parody ep--Lisa gave Bart a telescope she won at an Astronomy fair or something (she wasn't going to need it because she was popular thanks to the pool), and while spying on the neighbors with it Bart suspected Ned of murdering Maude and burying her in the backyard.


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