Crestfallen

Fuck this. No seriously, fuck this.

Masochistic Update: This season Edwin Encarnacion has 5 home runs and a .318 wOBA. His UZR/150 at third base is a stunning -23.1. Those are both significantly below his career averages of .350 and -12.2. Congratulations Rogers, I may not pay my bill again this decade. Fuck.

You Mean They Play Baseball?

Lost in the constant din of HalladayHalladayHallday was the Jays losing two out of three to a game but terrible Mariners team. The lineup they sent out on Wednesday was borderline embarrassing. Nearly as embarrassing as Cito sending Roy Halladay back out into the heat, as the good men of Bluebird Banter point out. Last year there was some debate around Halladay's ability to pitch in the heat (proved to be nonsense by General Hale, but there was chatter none the less.) All reports point towards the man being spent. Even after he loaded the bases, he was still out there. Bring in a lefty and Griffy may as well swing a rolling pin. But nope, it was Doc's penultimate game before his second-to-last home start, he must finish what he starts.

Sadly, it is that time of year again and now the time of day to sift through the sadness we see before us. You guessed it, it's underperformance o'clock! The fun game where we point to the Jays brutal underperformance of all their expected or third order records. Firstly we look at the cold, hard, indisputable truth. The Jays have 49 wins and 53 losses. But now the fun begins.

The run differential is +42, good for 9th in all of baseball. That means their pythag record is 55-47. Boo. The good people at Baseball Prospectus provide second and third order wins which are calculated to be "luck neutral." Both second and third order wins put the Jays on 54 or 55 wins. The only team with a greater difference between their actual record and these theoretical numbers are the Washington Nationals. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't want to be associated with them in any way, shape, or form.

Beyond the Box Score offer their weekly power rankings based on a myriad of calculations based on offense, run prevention (including defense!) adding in adjustments for strength of schedule and league. The Toronto Blue Jays &mdash the team many local fans want to "blow up" and "start over"&mdash currently sit fifth in the BtB rankings. The Jays just keep on underperforming their expected records. But how???

Once again, the Jays stink in the clutch. We aren't all imagining it, the Jays are the worst offensive team in basball under high-leverage pressure. By a long shot. The pitching doesn't perform nearly as badly in those high-leverage situations, though it hasn't been great overall. Gross. The main offenders? Vernon Wells natch, Aaron Hill, Lyle Overbay, Marco Scutaro and Adam Lind! All put up much worse numbers when the leverage is high. Rod Barajas and Alex Rios rank as the only Jays with positive clutch numbers. That says a lot, Rod Barajas should lead your team in exactly zero offensive categories. Two rookies are the best high leverage pitchers for the Jays, Romero and Cecil wiggling out of their own jams on a regular basis. The worst? Let's not talk about it.

Don't forget one run games? The games you're supposed to win half the time? The Jays wins 1 out of 3. Those same Mariners, with their awful offense and not great pitching, have won 25 out of 38 one-run games. Guess which team has a better record? Are the Mariners a better team than the Jays? Not even a little bit. At least the Jays have lost 10 extra inning games already!

No wonder this fanbase is so fed up, so ready for change. I made the point in the winter: for the Jays to compete they need to get (or be) lucky. They haven't (and aren't). Blame the GM if you must, but a slight reversal of sacking direction (up rather than down) and we're all singing a whole new tune. One that sounds like PLAYOFFS!

Reuters photo courtesy of Daylife, Rogers promotional photo courtesy of Eye On Springfield

Raping the Corpse of the Golden Goose

I recognize marketing or advertising or whatever you call it is a tough racket. I know I can barely get through my 11am meeting without a bracing shot of Wild Turkey. But the good people charged with marketing the Toronto Blue Jays have gone a little overboard.

During tonight's broadcast, I saw promos trumpeting tomorrow's Halladay start as "possibly his last." THE THIRD SUCH START IN TWO WEEKS. Look suits, you got two nice home dates out of this, a shit-tonne of media from outlets that would sooner cover curling rink de-thawings but enough is enough. The latest promo featured shots of a teenaged Roy Halladay slipping on a Blue Jays hat in his Denver-area kitchen. ENOUGH MANIPULATION.

Selling baseball to self-loathing Torontonians is a difficult ask, yes. But could you at least get past the obvious inferiority complex and stop brazenly picking our scabs right in front of us? It somehow makes the entire publicity stunt look cheaper and more contrived, something J.P. is capable of doing all on his own.

Tangentially related image courtesy of Warming Glow

Life Vests Float, Kids Don't

With all the trade bullshit coming to a head and the seemingly unanimous sentiment that JP Ricciardi's days are numbered in Toronto I find it interesting that the Jays are pulling into Seattle. The Seattle Mariners and the Toronto Blue Jays have many things in common, the least of which being their simultaneous entry to the American League. The Mariners overachieved with a poorly conceived roster only to historically fall to Earth in 2008 as the only $100 million dollar team to lose 100 games. The Jays always seem to underachieve both their optical expectations (the ifs ands & buts) as well as their numerical expectations (will you look at that, they're doing it again!)

The single most important difference between these two teams right now is at General Manager. The Mariners made a move to bring in a new man this year (though it almost wasn't a man), Jack Zduriencik, and he quickly made an impression. Jack Z's moves continue to trim incredible amounts of fat from the M's roster. A few bold trades, a vital fleecing of the Royals and the Mariners are headed in the right direction. They're by no means there, but they seem to have a plan. Which brings me back to JP.

To believe that any one man or organization has a master plan, takes an incredibly wide view of move A begets move B begets move C begets PLAYOFFS! is, in my mind, a little naive. Equally naivete is required to look at the Jays on field product, farm system and draft record and deny this team, this organization has a distinct PHILOSOPHY of what they feel Blue Jays baseball is and how much it will cost. I'll get into that a little deeper in the future if the powers-that-be find it in their infinite wisdom to allow it.

While touristy columnists love to take shots at JP's lack of a plan, I don't think it's true, on a macro scale anyway. The true failings of JP Ricciardi are the microplans; the individual pieces here and there that added up to missed opportunity or stubborn refusal to cut bait. We all love to point to Tampa's minor league contract successes as ways JP fails. To paraphrase Mike Wilner; not all minor league deals are created equal. When Tampa invites Carlos Pena to camp it is the promise of a full time job that gets him there. If JP pledges a starting role to Travis Snider, he can't offer any veteran bat of substance any guarantees beyond "we'll call you if we need you." It isn't an inability to find adequate diamonds in the rough, it's shoving Snider out there without any sort of contingency plan. JP, Arnsberg, and the lot do an exception job of this within the pitching ranks, creating a constant state of competition for 5 precious rotation spots. If health isn't a factor, there could well be 10 pitchers (Marcum, Listch, Cecil, Mills, Purcey, McGowan, Rzepczynski, Romero, Ray, Janssen) competing for 4 starting slots next year. We all know where the other one is going.

PS. Any more "make Cecil the closer" talk and I'll probably lose my mind. Stop it. Just stop. I don't care who you are, you sound like an idiot. You don't turn a big tall lefty with a four pitch mix into a closer unless you are burning money. If you don't think League can do it fine, but don't send good money after bad by wasting Cecil.

I pay pretty close attention to the Mariners; there is no better way to do so than by reading U.S.S Mariner. One tidbit I gleaned from their site earlier this season was this: all players have limitations. Putting players into situations you know they can't succeed in isn't their fault, it's yours. Part of having a "plan" is making use of all 25 spots to craft a successful team. In an ideal world you'd have a team full of 5 tool studs without handedness splits, but that doesn't happen. Not on a budget, not with all the money in the world.

If you have a weakness, be it a player's inability to hit same handed pitching, put together a decent enough hot streak to hide his inadequacies, or field one position well, you'd better have a complimentary or off-setting piece ready to plug in that instance. Jose Bautista's ability to play numerous positions coupled with his ability to stand at the plate and hope for a walk is something, Kevin Millar's ability to run into a fastball a month is nothing. Teams like the Red Sox do this exceptionally well because they can afford to and because players will take less to play there. How many teams would Rocco start for (health aside)? He's just an example of their ability to get the most out of all their pieces, both in his contributions and the ability for he and JD Drew to spare each others brittle bones.

Last year we saw the inability to acknowledge Mencherson's obvious failings hurt the team in the long run. We learned that cutting Frank Thomas lose was a fair bit of business and an understandable move. If you don't see the value in this move and are willing to criticize it, please stop. The deal Thomas signed was very team-friendly and was executed exactly to plan. But the refusal of Blue Jays management and their inability to move on past "their guys" is a hindrance. Make no mistake, whether JP drafted them or not, the moment they sign a new contract under him they become his guys. His choices, his problem.

What is all this about? Am I advocating replacing JP with someone that can make better decisions on a micro scale while building on the strong base provided? Maybe. A glorywhore like Pat Gillick could ride in, pull the trigger on one significant trade and be thought of as the white knight that saved baseball once again. But make no mistake, whoever is chosen as the replacement is set up for future success by the philosophy of the current regime. It is just too bad we're left to "suffer" the consequences of failing to sweat the small stuff.

The Spoils of Failure

The Tao has his Friday Rock Out and Joanna of Hum & Chuck responded in turn. Your boy Eyebeleaf posted an inspiration video earlier this week, mustering up the gumption to get through this trying season. In the name of brand positioning and disappointment over losing the boobie video, I must throw my dirty hat in the ring. With a catch, of course.

This video isn't to make me feel better about the season or make sense of the seemingly senseless misinformation emanating from the front office. I don't care if JP stays or goes, no manner of ball washing of Gillick or lusting for Theo could have changed many of JP's choices. Every single team is attempting the same feat as the Jays, some are a little further up the curve than the Jays. Many, many teams are far behind. None of that matters in the end, because there isn't a damn thing we can do about it. But this video is not for them, or for me. It is for Roy Halladay.

If Roy Halladay really is to make his final start tonight against the reeling Rays, I want him to hurt them. I want him to listen to some of the doomiest, heaviest metal to ever come from Canada and go out with hate in his heart. I want him to stomp the life from their bodies and cut new orifices in which to violate them. When he walks off the field, I want him not to doff his hat, but give the official Roy Halladay cuteye to the nearest camera. Do it for yourself Roy, because no one else will.

I'm liveblogging the events tonight. Do stop by and make it a memorable one. Love to the Te of Inglett for the original image below.


The Blue Jays world will shout up "save us" and Roy will whisper "no."

The Phillies Aren't Phighting Phair

I'll have something intelligent to say soon about, um, something? But until then we need to recognize the depths to which the covetous-eyed corpse rapers (the body is still warm!) are willing to sink to land Roy Halladay.

Your move, fanboys. Turn this mother out.

Like any good moving picture, this comes courtesy of Meech and The Fightins!

UPDATE: Because that video will make you a little dumber, I encourage you read The Mockingbird's Jonathan Hale doing some amazing work at The Hardball Times. Marrying Pitch f/x and Hit f/x to determine what causes infield pop flys? That is some next-level shit, and I salute him for it. Must. Read.

Update number 2: Well, she took her video down. Instead I present a 12 year old kid from Jersey talking to the camera. His words, regarding the possibility of Roy Halladay becoming a Phillie:

That is fucking awesome.

It just might be, it just might be.

Overblown

Let's not climb all over ourselves in an mad dash to bury Lyle Overbay. Lyle Overbay is an amazing first baseman who made a difficult play look impossible. I'm a little uncomfortable with my apologist position here, but I think about it this way: isolated sucking is one thing, sustained sucking is another. Sustained sucking with no hope of improvement is where I draw the line and start casting aspersions. Like Jose Bautista! Remember when he walked all the time? That's kinda the only thing he offers, and even that is regressing. His on base is slowly making its way back to Earth, along with his bloated wOBA. The less said about Kevin Millar the better. Complaining about him is like complaining about Canadian winters or the GST.

Like Elliott Ness

Speaking of overblown, the most overused word this time of the year is "untouchable." Such and such a prospect is untouchable, he's on our untouchable list. This is the used car salesman coming out of every GM. He's only untouchable because it drives up his value. I recently acquired a list of "untouchable" prospects from baseball GMs, it looks like this:

• Self doubt
  
• Self awareness
  
• Style
  
• Humility

Those are the only things a baseball GM can't offer you for any price. Anything else that may save their job, improve their team, or make ownership money is fair game. Kyle Drabek is not untouchable, but labeling him so creates a lot of intrigue and perceived value. Stephen Strasburg, Matt Weiters, Tommy Hanson and David Price are the only guys that come close to being untouchable.

Overthrown

That said, if anyone came knocking for Brett Cecil, would you say yes? His future is as bright as his present is muddied by poor control. Playing with fire and generally pissing around against the god-awful Racist Nicknames is one thing, against a real time you'll be in trouble. But this too will pass and, as Mike Wilner said, he'll be a damn fine number 2 starter in this league.

A Moment in Time

I know it took place about 1000 years ago in blogging/internet time, but I witnessed something special on Friday night during the Jays/Red Sox game (which I was liveblogging.) Love and love collided when Brandon League came in to pitch the 7th inning with the outcome of the game hardly in doubt. It didn't matter though, as the first batter he faced was none other than Rocco Baldelli. ZOMG!

I was very conflicted; what should I hope to happen? The game was pretty much over given the Sox bullpen dominance and Rocco was having a tough time at the plate. A meaningless insurance home run wouldn't hurt anybody, right? I think the best scenario would be the the one laid out by Ian the Blue Jay Hunter, who said (allow me to embellish) that Rocco should go down and get a tough League fastball, ripping it down the third base line for Scott Rolen to make an incredible diving play! This website would have spontaneously combusted and ceased to be. It didn't really play out that way, because Brandon League was AMAZING on Friday night. To the graph paper!


Your eyes do not deceive you. Brandon League threw only 1 fastball to Rocco, right down the middle. The other four pitches were his off speed pitch, whatever you believe it to be. Sinker? Slider? Curve? Change? The pitch f/x algorithm sure can't figure it out. Neither could Rocco, who swung at two nice whatevertheyares just below the strike zone after League threw one that even the ump couldn't make sense of so he called it a ball. How about we look at League's velocity versus horizontal movement for the whole inning, which included a two pitch ground out and a strike out of JD Drew?


I'm not very smart, so I don't know what to label the breaking pitch. Is it a changeup? Sort of, it moves laterally at a speed similar to Halladay's change, though the vertical movement is all different. Sometimes Pitch f/x thinks it's a cutter, sure whatever, though I don't think Brandon League throws with his left hand half the time. Is is the very same pitch he heaves normally, just at 80% effort? Brandon League is a pretty eXXXtreme dude, I don't think he does anything at 80% effort. TO THE MAX!

It could be anything, but whatever it was against the Red Sox on Friday, it worked. It was highly effective because it was thrown around the strikezone! Will wonders ever cease?

You may suggest this is an asinine waste of time, getting excited over an 11 pitch sample. You'd be correct, but I still wouldn't care. Rocco went down against a better man on this day, one I hope we'll see again soon.

Let's Start the Second Half Off Right

With a little nightmare fuel, via our friends at 3:10 to Joba. Read the post if you want to re-experience your lunch mid-digestion.

The Jays face criminal minded-party animal Clay Buchholz tonight. Ricky Romaro goes for the Jays - something we should all be thankful for.

Have thoughts of RR cleansed the JobaJay ugliness from your mind yet? Hopefully, because Beyond the Boxscore has another massive serving of nightmare fuel to cram down your gullet. If the plan is to include Vernon in any possible Halladay trade scenarios, you'd better be dealing with Dayton Moore-level moron. Not likely.

I'm liveblogging tonight's Jays - Red Sox tilt for the Score. Swing by and watch the second half start in style.

Brief Thoughts on the Business of Sports

Just a quick addendum to my previous post and some comments following the Tao's incredible take on the prospect of trading Halladay: I don't give a damn about business. I don't care if Rogers survives or fails (jokes, current employers!) and I don't spend much time thinking about the business side of the Toronto Blue Jays baseball club. That said, we can't ignore it. We can bluster all day about passionate fandom and losing yourself in the game, but when it comes to brainstorming and/or spitballin' ideas for why JP should stay/go, we'd be fools to ignore it.

Which is why we must all promise to cease begging Rogers to dump the Laotian GNP into payroll or demanding Vernon Wells humbly reorder his contract for the good of the team. These are pie in the sky hopes and dreams that have nothing to do with the beauty and poetry of baseball. We're asking publicly traded corporations and private citizens to forsake millions of dollars so our favorite TV show has a better ending. Not going to happen. Let's focus on baseball instead.