First Round Fleshbot

Everybody relaxxx. The randomly selected quote from one of Roy Halladay's advisers claims Halladay won't approve a trade once Spring Training is under way. While this may be (almost assuredly) false, we don't have to worry. See even if the Jays don't trade or re-sign Roy Halladay, they'll get draft picks for him! Picks are valuable you see. You turn nothing into something.

Except draft picks probably aren't nearly as valuable as we think. They definitely aren't as valuable as we want them to be. They say the baseball draft is an inexact science, different from the NBA or NFL drafts where young studs are widely acknowledged and impact their new teams almost immediately.

Except the baseball draft is a VERY exact science. Draft in the top half of the first round or else the talent is gone. Period. Just because the NCAA hasn't parlayed the luscious ting of aluminum bats into a national TV deal with a catchy name doesn't mean the future stars and contributors aren't as clear as day.

Look at the incredible amount of research done on the draft. Players taken outside the top 20 provide 0.24 WAR per year on average. Over 6 years that is a whopping 1.5 WAR. That, well, sucks. That is anything but a sure thing. Or consider this graph relating draft position to lifetime WAR. Any player taken outside the first round is lucky to provide the equivalent of two league-average years for their entire career.

The Jays own raft of picks in the up-coming draft. Is it a great opportunity to restock the minors? Of course. But hoping for the Jays to draft the entire 2015 starting lineup is nothing more than wishful thinking. The fact of the matter is any picks outside the top 10 or 15 end up being mostly trivial.

The teams look at the picks financially, fans can't or shouldn't waste their time with that. We should do some fanmath. Consider the emotionally investment you have in Roy Halladay, now create a dollar figure for it. What are the chances you will end up that invested in a future sandwich pick? Pretty slim. Subtract the resentment we'll all feel for whomever comes back for Halladay and I feel like we (I?) can't win. The appreciation and enjoyment we get from watching Roy Halladay pitch is a sunk cost. We're just going to swallow it.

So yeah, get mad that Halladay is on his way. We should be mad. A player that, by all accounts, loves playing in Toronto and always has is on his way out. Get mad at thought of him wearing pinstripes or a pink B hat because of the inability of his supporting cast to get him over the hump. Get madder still at the thought of douchebags booing him because of it. Looking on the bright side is one thing; failing to reflect on what we're losing is another, far too callous for even my tastes. We'll miss you Roy, even when we've still got you.