The Pains of Being Murph at Heart

Remember back in the halcyon days of the 2009 when Travis Snider was a can't miss 21 year old prospect with exciting power to all fields? I sure do.

A few things have changed since then. Snider is obviously a few years older (yet still very young) and while not quite a prospect, he is still a player with tremendous potential. One thing is conspicuous in its absence from the Travis Snider circa 2011's profile: the opposite field pop.

The image you see above is Travis Snider's season-by-season spray chart (courtesy of the good people at Texas Leaguers) giffed up for comparative goodness. Notice anything different? I know I do: the opposite field tater tots from 2009 are all but missing.

Snider hit 5 home runs to left field in 2009 then none last year. Why might that be? A lack of fastballs to drive the other way or a pull happy team influencing a struggling young hitter?

I miss opposite field home runs. They're great fun, they really are. Both Lind and Snider used to hit them with regularity but now...gone. Not only are they pleasing to the eye, they're a great way to keep pitchers honest.

With Snider struggling and seeing a steady diet of off-speed junk, maybe a policy of staying back on the soft stuff and riding the hard stuff to the opposite field could help him solve his early season woes at the plate. Not that I advocate straying from The Plan at the plate. Heaven forbid.

Strikeouts are Good

I assure you that strikeouts are, in fact, essential. One might link the struggles of a certain lefty back to his complete inability to strike people out.

Poor Brett Cecil notched 3 strikeouts in both his troubled & belabored 5 inning outings this year. He looks very ungood on the mound, grinding his way to 15 outs amid a hail of line drives and befuddled looks.

Why might this be? What is killing Cecil early this season? The lack of velocity certainly doesn't help but allow me to focus on his changeup. The serendipitous pitch that suddenly allowed Cecil to retire right handed batters and keyed his strong 2010.

In a mere two outings, right handed batters are bashing Cecil around pretty good. Not that we should expect a left-hander with less-than electric stuff pitching in his first April to run over glove-sided batters, but the results are not pretty.

As we saw at times last year, when guys like Cecil (and to a lesser extent Ricky Romero) struggle, it tends to be the changeup that lets them down. Either the offspeed offerings get pounded up in the zone or hitters stay patient with pitches off the plate, designed to elicit swings-and-misses. The bi-product of the latter is more fastballs from guys better served going with junk, the former simply results in line drives that don't get caught.

So I looked at what's become of Cecil's changeups this season compared to last and where in the zone he's putting them. These figures are versus right-handed pitching only. Click to enlarge, pitch f/x data courtesy of Joe Lefkowitz.


I'm mildly surprised to see the swinging strikes so similar, even in a tiny 10 inning sample. The only thing that stands out is gains made in the "in play, tears" section. The dreaded "wild in the zone?" Say it ain't so!


That is pretty much what "wild in the zone" looks like. Lots of pitches in hittable places. Too many thigh-high pitches in the middle of the plate. Again, troubling.

It don't mean to suggest Brett Cecil is a lost cause - he certainly is not. His swing-and-miss changeup makes him a viable starter for any team, let alone this rebuilding unit. I don't know if it is confidence or mechanics but if Brett Cecil cannot command this vital pitch, he's back to being a man without a real weapon against right handed pitching.

Picking 10 early season innings to hold up as proof of deep flaws is not my intention: I'm simply looking for what's gone wrong so far. For his and all our sake, let's hope it's something a few minor adjustments can rectify.

A.P. Photo courtesy of Daylife, pitch f/x stuffs from Joe as mentioned.

Knee Deep in the Dead

"The revamped bullpen looks great, leading MLB with 32 strikeouts compared to just 10 walks (two intentional). Strangely, the most significant contributions have come from holdovers Shawn Camp, Jason Frasor and Marc Rzepczynski." Some genius, ESPN Power Rankings.

Well that was unpleasant! 7 walks is no fun, nor is it anything worth dwelling on. Hoisting blame onto the manager seems easy enough though I can't entirely fault him, Octavio Dotel's ROOGY status notwithstanding. Walking 7 guys — seven SEATTLE FREAKING MARINERS — falls on those futilely hurling the pitches.

With that blame in mind...umm...wow...I knew this wouldn't be easy but..ummm Dave: we need to talk.

Look, Dave, Davey, bubby, you know nobody supports you like I do. I take lumps for you, I kill my credibility for you. I stumped to make you the freaking closer! Unfortunately, the time has come for you to go.

When Brandon Morrow is due to return to the rotation, this team has a difficult decision to make. Considering their ongoing infatuation with a pitcher best described as liquid, Jo-Jo "Loud Outs" Reyes is likely to lose his starter's role. He, like you, is out of options. He, unlike you, walks fewer than 12 guys per 9 innings. Pretty much making you the odd man out.

Perhaps you can go and live with the nice family on the farm. Perhaps another family in the neighbourhood sees the good in you. Me, I'm done. I hope you figure it out one day, that you realize gigantic left-handed dudes who throw 95 don't really need to do much else. Either way Davey, it's been a slice.

Start with Sliding, Move to the Dougie

If the Cali Swag District isn't available, perhaps we can get Davey Lopes, Cali Slide District - Bureau Chief, to swing by the Jays while they're in LA to teach Yunel Escobar how to slide.

Headfirst is risky, this much I know. But am I crazy in thinking that Yunel slides headfirst into a base in an, um, unorthodox manner? Take a look at the screencaps of varying quality below.





Two separate triples (first against the Twins last Saturday, the second the ominous concussion-causing slide from Wednesday), two God-awful slides. Is he doing some sort of Bill Madlock, rolling block homage? I don't get it.

Why on Earth does he come into the base on his side? I know Cuban baseball players pride themselves on being stylish and swagging out every single moment on the field, but Yunel's headfirst sliding is awkward & ugly.

Leaving aside the strained expressions of Escobar in flight — seriously, for such a slick fielder he doesn't appear especially athletic when chugging around the bases — sometimes needs to pull him aside and teach him how to slide. Headfirst or otherwise.

Not only might he get himself killed, he just looks bad. And that isn't what I've come to expect from the swaggering wonder. Keep swinging that mean stick though, first pitch destruction!

Old Habits Die Hard

It isn't that I plan to dump on Jesse Litsch's fine outing. Litsch did a great job moving his pitches around the (generous) zone, getting backwards K after backwards K. He only gave up 6 hits and 2 walks, a great start indeed. Credit to both him and JPA for keeping the A's hitters off-balance.

That said, when the A's batters did manage to get their bats on Jesse's offerings, MAN did they hit him hard. Much like Jo-Jo Reyes the night before, Litsch surrendered as many line drives (6) as he did ground balls (6). While Reyes took it upon himself to boost Travis Snider's UZR and arm scores, Jesse Litsch might just win Rajai Davis a Fielding Bible award. Stinging liner right to Rajai Davis in centerfield becomes a great over the shoulder catch. Long shot to the gap, Davis runs it down in the most spectacular manner possible.

Davis nearly made another great catch but, I feel, fell victim to the video boards in the gap and lost it off the end of his glove. Missing one liner is okay as Davis well on his way to fulfilling Parkes' prophecy and becoming your favorite baseball player, likely ever.

A dangerous game to play but Jesse Litsch played it very, very well last night. He did exactly what Jesse Litsch needs to do: scatter the hitters, avoid walks at all costs, keep the ball in the ballpark. I'll take a few ringing doubles if the strikeouts outnumber the walks, every time.

Speaking of strikeouts, Marc "Led Rzeplin" Rzepczynski pitched OFF HIS ASS last night. 6 batters faced, three strikeouts, another broken bat, two broken bats, one infield pop fly, no hits surrendered. It was awesome, even more awesome than David Purcey's outing the previous day. It is a good time to be a GROFavorite.

Almost as awesome as the manner in which manager John Farrell used Rzepczynski. "Fuck a save", the manager was (not) quoted as saying after the game. Anytime I'm only asked to buckle up for a two-out Rauchride, I'm on board.

AP Photo courtesy of Daylife.

Stepping Up to the Downs Spot

Please excuse my self-indulgence, but GROF favorite Marc Rzepczynski took the mound twice this weekend as a relief pitcher. No way is a momenteus occasion such as the emergence of The New Scott Downs going to slip past me.

Rzep contributed an inning to Kyle Drabek's masterpiece on Saturday and felt the sting of the luck dragon on Sunday. The results were good(ish) but the process was sound. See the strike zone plot below.


Breaking bats and breaking hearts! Rzepczynski, in limited action, stuck with the slider and sinker. Everything is down in the zone save the pitch that plunked that hump Jason Kubel.

Two broken bats, two GIDP, good stuff all around. Still early but encouraging, if Marc Rzepczynski succeeding as a reliever encourages you. Me? It bums me out, as the better he pitches in the pen, the less likely he is to return to the rotation.

I'll keep my complaining to a minimum and simply take what precious satisfaction I can muster from seeing a pitcher come (back?) into his own. Here's hoping the bullpen rigors don't wear him down too quickly.

AP Photo courtesy of Daylife, pitch f/x data from Joe Lefkowitz.

An Inning in the Life of Brett Cecil

All minor league pitchers should have to watch Brett Cecil's 1st IP. Struck out the side with location and changing speeds.

— Marc Hulet (@marchulet) April 3, 2011

An innocent tweet from Marc Hulet (of Fangraphs fame) got me thinking about a few things. First, I thought of Cecil's rapid evolution towards a cagey, soft-tossing lefty before his time.

Then I thought of the old Medical School posts I wrote on Halladay's sequencing. Then I thought of delicious sandwiches.

After lamenting the first and enjoying the third, I came back to the second. Why not take a look at what Cecil did against the Twins on Sunday? See if he actually changed speeds and angles or whatever.

Everything started out well enough, right up until I realized that GAMEDAY HATES BRETT CECIL. The biggest casualty of Cecil's disappearing velocity is the ability of these poor, overworked robots to discern what in the Hell Brett Cecil throws.

After some time I'll never get back and a little tweaking (with Excel 2003 at home, sad face) I took Marc's tweet literally and laid out Brett Cecil's first inning below. Let's travel along with the increasingly crafty lefty and see what worked for him against the Twins during the opening frame.

As a refresher: to properly read these graphs, imagine you are the catcher or umpire. The pitches are coming towards you (from the right hand-side of the image in this case, as Brett Cecil throws with his left hand.)

The RED dots are four seam fastballs, the BLUE dots are two seamers/sinkers, and the green dealies are change ups. Swinging strikes are X'd, called strikes boxed, and balls circled. Foul balls are starred and indicated as such. The bigger the point, the slower the pitch.

The batters are Denard Span (L), Tsuyoshi Nishioka (R), and Delmon Young (R). The strike zone is standardized...mostly. It is pretty much Span's zone for all three bros, which only affects Nishioka in any real way. Here we go.


Great start for Cecil! A Brett Cecil Attempted Four Seamer starts Span off 0-1. First pitch of the game, not a bad time to groove one. Next, Cecil opts for the sinking two seamer under the hands, which Span swings right through. Awesome. 0-2 on the leadoff man is a great way to live.

Cecil (and Arencibia, it should be noted) then attempt to trick poor Denard. Throwing a similar-looking pitch — the change up — in the same spot. The pitch is too far inside and too low, so Denard takes. 1-2.

Rather than waste a pitch, Cecil crosses Span up by coming with one of his "fast-balls" down and away. Span freezes, strike three. Cue cheering, ball thrown around the horn, goggle adjustments. Up next is Tsuyoshi Nishioka, a.k.a. Not Ichiro.



Again, the bottom of Nishioka's strike zone is a little higher than shown here, making the first pitch fastball down and away a clear-cut ball. Cecil then pounds the same spot again and gets the call, evening the count at one.

The slappy Nishioka figures to get defensive with the next pitch so Cecil and Cibia come way inside with a two seamer, a pitch that likely started on the edge of the plate. Nishioka takes and jumps ahead 2-1.

Cecil doesn't want to fall behind a guy without much power (he and I assume, because we're probably racist) so he comes back over the plate. But, as he plays in the American League East, it is a change-up, not a fastball. Nishioka swings through it and immediately regrets many decisions made over the last six months.

With the count now even at two, Cecil throws his BFF change-up on the inner half, freezing the Twins second baseman. Great job of keeping an inexperienced hitter off balance. Two down and up steps the free-swinging Delmon Young.


Despite my "free-swinging" billing, Cecil throws two straight sinkers up and over the plate to Young. Delmon fouls them both away, finding himself in a 0-2 hole.

Cecil then dials up his four seamer, buzzing Young's tower with the highest velo'd fastball he threw all afternoon. Good job of giving Young something to think about and "changing his eye level", as they often say.

Still in the driver's seat against a guy allergic to walking, Cecil goes to his new out-pitch: the change-up. For the second straight time, he throws the change in search of the strikeout.

And a strikeout is exactly what he gets as Young swings through the well-placed change down in the zone. Inning over! Parade planning under way!

This was, sadly, the high point of Cecil's day. He didn't look great at points on Sunday, seeming to battle fatigue as his velocity slipped as the day wore on.

If this is mechanical issue as the Tao and Cal from MUD discussed on Twitter, perhaps Walton and the new bossman can fix it. As he showed in this snapshot, he can mix it up and miss bats in a real way. If it is a health issue...getting it figured out sooner rather than later is preferable. This team will need him come October.

Pitch F/X data courtesy of Brooks Baseball. Get used to reading that.

Kyle Drabek's Day at the Office

You would be hard-pressed to come up with a better season debut for Kyle Drabek. He held off a lineup featuring lefty powerhouses like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jim freaking Thome. He dominated the rest of the middling, often pathetic Twins lineup AL Central favorites using a variety of fastballs and a few other things thrown in for good measure.

Taking a look at the pitch f/x, I realize it is very difficult to categorize pitches when they're largely varieties of fastball thrown by an inexperienced pitcher. The algorithm "learns" to better categorize his offerings but for now the Gameday-issued classifications are largely a crapshoot. The good men of Mop Up Duty have a solid breakdown of Drabek's start here, below you'll find my own Pitch F/X take.

I tweaked the pitch classifications based on my years of experience and/or using a magic 8 ball. Even after "pouring" over the data, I'm still not 100% convinced I got it all right. The only hit Drabek allowed - a single to Denard Span - looked more like a two-seamer than the cutter it ended up classified as. It's an inexact science, but what you see below is a lot closer than the Gameday version.


A really nice mix, 9 whiffs on 101 pitches is really encouraging. As are the 11 groundballs (!) induced by the Jays young phenom. I'd attribute that largely to the cutter he threw with extreme prejudice. Another look at the pitch selection, as best as I can figure.


A little bit of bleed between two and four seam fastballs, but all-in-all a pretty clean look. The cutter is a trouble if you're a left-handed batter, me thinks. Expect to see it up under the hands of those lefties when he isn't dying that darting two seamer over the outside corner.

The change-up gives a decent change of pace from the straight two-seamer, I wonder if he won't incorporate it more his second time around the league?

In the end it was a great start from a very important player in 2011 and beyond. The strikeouts were a pleasure to see, his lack of minor league K's give me reason to pause but if his new/refined cutter change that, the sky is the limit. Woo! Baseball!

Pitch F/X data courtesy of Brooks Baseball, doin' work for another season. AP Photo courtesy of Daylife.

Bait and Switch

Are you kidding me?

One can only speculate what this means, platoon-wise. Does Corey Patterson play right field against left handed pitching, with EE moving to first and Adam Lind moving somewhere far, far from the batters box? Mike McCoy? JOHN MACDONALD? What hath you wrought, Jose?

Just when I thought the team bought your silence about preferring the outfield, there you go, starting in right field. Not only have you ruined my infield AND outfield previews, you're going to kill poor Adam Lind. There is blood on your hands Jose. BLOOD. ON YOUR HANDS.

On the other hand...he just might.

Season Preview: Outfielders

Welcome to the Ghostrunner on First season preview series. Please bring your expectations to the fully reclined position. Focussing on a different aspect of the team, expect the unexpected! Or at least the uninspired.

Who are they?

• Travis Snider - binge eater with truly elite hitting tools. Team-leading affability skills, wide frame to carry the hopes and dreams of an entire fanbase.
• Rajai Davis - Speedy. Religious. Two things not usually seen in Godless Toronto.
• Juan Rivera - Molting corpse, gladly accepted in exchange for freedom from the tyrannical Vernon Wells regime.
• Scott Podsednik - Can't be any worse at baseball than he is at economics. Slap hitting base-stealer, if you can believe it.
• Corey Patterson - White guys drive like this, black guys drive like this.

What we want them to do

All we need from Travis Snider is to stay healthy and, perhaps, heal the world. Put the Epic Meal Time dudes on his payroll. Endeavor to hit lots and lots of home runs.

It would be nice for Rajai Davis to blossom into a hybrid of 2009 Rajai Davis and Ricky Henderson. Really, just Ricky Henderson will do. Get on, steal two bases, score on a delayed double steal. Small ball!

I would enjoy Juan Rivera lurching back to life in the most jarring way possible, clouting home runs while looking surprisingly spry in the outfield. Not keeling over dead during a walk back to the dugout will suffice.

Best case scenario: Scotty Pods spends just enough time with the big club to prompt a trip to the ballpark from his wife, even just once. Corey Patterson, should he make the club, can hit left-handed pitching hard and play a little corner outfield from time to time. Nothing crazy. NOTHING MORE.

Worst Case Scenario

A long winter of gorging finally catches up to the Lunch Box Hero, rendering Snider's bones too brittle and flesh too meat-sweaty to compete at the big league level. An inability to command the strike zone the way he commands our hearts would also be a drag.

Rajai Davis tragically learns he cannot steal first, no matter how hard he tries. Scott Podsednik loses his foot to gangrene, his wife to a member of the Gang Green. Somebody hits Corey Patterson lead-off.

Realistic Season Goals aka Results We Can Live With

Travis Snider gets 600 plate appearances. Good, bad, or indifferent, all he really needs to do is play. Decisions can be made after a full year's worth of (hopefully) uninterrupted play can be evaluated. Many people (myself included) have nearly unshakable belief in Snider's ability at the plate. He is the One True Barometer for 2011 - his progress is all that matters (more on this later.) The other guys are just guys - they're impact is negligible. It is all about Snider.

Reuters image courtesy of Daylife.