Feral Dogs Congregate Around Rogers Centre

Remember when the Jays traded away their likable and slick fielding second baseman to make room for a much younger, less likable (let's say less charismatic, to be fair), and most importantly much cheaper second basemen of equal glove slickness? Me too, that was a good deal. They got rid of a player as he became arbitration eligible to make room for a young, every-day contributor. Good work JP, sound as a motherfucking pound.

Fast forward 3 years, it seems that very same player is now a free agent. Guess that means it's time for Toronto sports fans, always in search of a kindly black dude with a recognizable name, to start crowing for Orlando Hudson's return. To which I, predictably, say no fucking way.

Orlando Hudson certainly earned a lot of fans in Toronto, with an easy smile and competent bat, all the while playing the living shit out of second base. JP shipped him off to make room for a younger, cheaper player as Hudson was due a raise. He took well the Senior Circuit, posting what we like to call The Joke League Bump (around 40 points of OPS) when he went to the fertile fields of the NL West. A big part of his JLB is owed to playing half his games at hitter- and old person-friendly Chase Field.



After his strong 2006, Hudson put up comparable numbers in fewer games in '07 & '08. Defensively though, Hudson shows his age. Hudson's Revised Zone Rating has gone down substantially since his time in Toronto, as have his out of zone plays. After posting +11 and +20 seasons in 2006 & 2007, Hudson was a highly pedestrian -2 in 2008. (Math, people!)

I don't think anyone seriously expects or wants to see Hudson back in Toronto, especially if he plans on bringing his ridiculous double ear flap helmet with him. Ignoring the fact that he's going to sign with the Mets for New York-level cash, and ignoring that fact that Aaron Hill isn't moving to shortstop (hopefully they've got somebody better in mind), and ignoring JP's fear of old and overpriced talent, this move still wouldn't make any sense. Thanks for the memories, Pinball Lite, but I don't need to see you in Baby Blue Pajamas.

Break the Bank

The clock struck horseshit this week, bringing another uneventful series of GM meetings to a close. Nothing noteworthy happened, but nothing noteworthy ever does. This setting is for laying groundwork. Hopefully much was laid, we'll never know. Tim Dierkes has built quite a cottage industry of tracking and aggregating these trade rumours, the bulk of which come to nothing. Take Troy Glaus for example. A whisper about his possible availability, a quick mention from Blair connecting Rolen in the Lincecum sweepstakes last year, but nothing real. Next thing you know, he's gone.

Armed with this convenient and anecdotal evidence I, with a delightful mix of cynicism and hope, believe the dearth of fleshy stories linking J.J. Hardy and the Jays is a good thing. For I believe he to be the ideal get for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Hardy won't be the answer to all the Blue Jays ills, but he is a good place to start. With the nearest shortstop prospect still better than 3 years away, the Jays need a more suitable stopgap than the Scutaros of the world. J.J. Hardy is all that and then some.

Contractually, Hardy is still under team control for 2 more years, meaning he would be a reasonably priced contributor during the pivotal 2010 season (more on that in the coming weeks.) Hardy is young enough to continue improving, he is big and he is good.

He, in stark contrast to the 2008 Blue Jays, kills both finesse pitching and left handed pitching. He's as patient as the most laconic Blue Jay (4.0 p/pa), has a lot of pop (14% home run/fly ball) without hitting a ton of balls in the air. In fact, his 2008 batted ball numbers look suspiciously like the Jays best hitter of 2008, Vernon Wells.

Defensively, he's awesome. Leading all shortstops with 72 out of zone plays, he amassed an excellent +19 defensive +/- in 2008. He was even awarded narrowly voted the runner up for a prestigious Gilded Leather Award recently on a website of high regard.

The Blue Jay he reminds me of most is his would-be double play partner, Aaron Hill. While that Fangraphs link will provide visual evidence of their similarity in age and production, I'll use their slash lines for simplicity's sake:

Aaron Hill, career (475 games) - .284/.339/.409/.748
J.J. Hardy, career (456 games) - .270/.329/.446/.775

Above-average contributors on the whole, well above replacement for their position with bright futures and supple gloves o'plenty. (How does a middle infield with +45 and +33 from 06-08 grab ya?) For the money, you couldn't do much better.

It is my contention that the JPs should pony up here. Short of Brett Cecil, nearly any (one) pitching prospect should be fair game. Three, even four years of Hardy will serve as an excellent bridge to Jackson. His GROFappeal is high, what with the pop and the slick fielding and obvious broad-bangery. I'm now officially in the tank for Hardy, and will be quite disappointed when it doesn't happen. Fire JP!

Understanding GROFappeal

This is a most interesting time of year. The GM meetings and all the rumours they entail nicely coincided with the dawning of a new epoch in North American politics and hopefully life. Watching a man do what he does best, what he does better than anyone else is what Ghostrunner on First is all about.

Yes, I love the Blue Jays and they are the base point and reason this space exists. I love when they win and die a little when they lose. But for me, it is really about the individuals. The players that jump off the screen and perform to the peak of their unique abilities. The convergence of skill and effort, the rare combination of skills that so few can claim as their own. These are the types of players I am often drawn to, the kind I wish I could watch every day.

The glorious bastards at The Southpaw have an excellent eye for talent. They're often proposing and suggesting potential Blue Jays targets that are either players I've considered myself or players that I've long admired. They were stumping for Milton Bradley all the way back in May. They share my great love of Khalil Greene. These players, despite their obvious differences, have one big thing in common: value added. Milton Bradley is more than just a guy with 160 OPS+, he's an enigmatic timebomb that has been misunderstood and maligned his entire career. Khalil Greene's potentially explosive bat and once great defense hit all my key points.

As I said, it is important to me that the Jays win, but perhaps more important is that they're interesting. They don't have to be "characters" to be interesting, they can just be great. Even at just one thing. John MacDonald is (or was) as one-dimensional a ballplayer as you'll find. One thing he is not? Boring. As this Hot Stove season wears on, I'll be hoping the Jays can land a key piece that might improve their fortunes. I'll also be hoping they bring in somebody that make me scratch my head and wonder if I believe my own eyes.

Quickly

As you might assume, there isn't much baseball happening on the weekends during the offseason, so I won't be doing my regular weekend gig at Walkoff Walk. I'll still be contributing regularly there all winter long, hopefully 3-4 posts during week until the horsehide is tossed in anger once again. So keep checking it out, every day!

Also, the good people at Mop Up Duty have launched a new look and a new, more Jaysy focus. The layout looks much better and the writing's as strong as ever. Head their way to learn what a real man looks like.

I Didn't Mean it Adam Lind

I'm sorry Adam Lind, baby I didn't mean it. I know you've heard about me coveting Billy Butler, the first of many young things to shake their OPS at me. I'm only human sugar, but you know how I really feel. Adam Lind, you're the only one for me.

Remember our courtship in the spring, how I longed for you? You were our WORLD Adam Lind, we knew you would come along and make it all right. We watched you from afar, knowing our time would come. And you did Adam Lind, you did.

The honeymoon phase was a long and glorious time, my friend. You kept swinging and you looked like the answer. You were the missing bat in the lineup, performing so far above the slags that filled that spot before you arrived. They meant nothing Adam Lind, nothing! It was only physical, they were just a warm body to hold us over until we could finally consummate our true devotion to you.

It isn't hard to figure out what attracted me in the first place. You came up through the system faster than a Merchant Marine on shore leave, turning all the boys' heads and making believers of us all. You stumbled once, kids makes mistakes, but we knew you'd be back. Everyone goes through that phase right after college. They need to experiment, they need to get out there in the world. Somehow those that matter most get left behind, but you always come back, Adam Lind. We know where your heart lies.

After the honeymoon stage, we cooled. The inevitable hangover set in, and we started looking around. It's only natural. Hell, we started noticing your sister at family functions, growing from her chubby teenage years into a nice little package herself. She really filled out! She looked good, but we wouldn't dare trying to pull off the unprecedented-outside-a-trailer-park Sister Swap?

But that isn't what we want Adam. You're the one for us, despite our looking down your sister's shirt across the Thanksgiving table. We'd NEVER attempt to come between sisters, especially two as close as you.


But this whole Billy Butler thing, we must apologize. We were talking with some guys at the bar, you know how those conversations go. We mentioned, casually, that we'd like to see Billy Butler come to town. We may have said something to the effect of not being married to you any more, and referred to you as a dangle piece. We didn't mean it, we SWEAR! We don't want to replace you with a younger, sleeker model. We hear he's on the wrong side of the crazy/hot scale anyway (at least he's white, guaranteeing not one single team will factor his craziness in any way).

Yes, he's younger. When the seasons start changing like this, everybody looks around, considers their options. We're always on the lookout for the next big thing, thinking it might wrestle us out of our winter doldrums. It's no fun being a known commodity, not with so much scattered ass freely available on the Internet and in our minds.

Yes, he looks a lot like your sister. We don't want to squeeze you out Adam Lind, we want Billy to enhance our relationship. You know your faults Adam, and you're no Rocco in the outfield. But this guy is like a Manny! We see a big future for you, for Travis and Billy in this crazy family. Uncle Lyle? There is still room for him too! I think it's too soon for your sister, maybe she should go back to the kid's table in the kitchen. I know I've been feeding her wine coolers all night, so fucking what? She's entitled to a little fun too, dammit. Stop trying to control me. No, I think YOU'VE had too much to drink. Fuck, your mother hates me.

Freedom Isn't Free

If you're ever unsure of the working definition of "jingoism", I encourage you to do a Google Image search of Freedom Isn't Free. Anyway, enough digression.

Real non-news! Rocco Baldelli is one of 50-odd players to file for free agency mere hours after the completion of the World Series. Hooray! He's on the open market!

Hardly.

Though the Rays declined the 2009 option on Rocco's deal, both the team and the Rocc are eager to sign a new deal. Rocco's situation is unlike most free agents because of his questionable health status, as the Rays' MLB.com guy points out:

Despite Baldelli's ability to play well when he is in the lineup, the fact he must still deal with the effects of his malady makes his a unique situation. The Rays, and other teams who might be considering making a bid at Baldelli, must decide how much value they can give to a player they can't count on to play every day.

Both the team and Rocco himself are saying All the Right Things, with Rocco acknowledging the team made a logical business decision (to decline his option) while still treating him with dignity and supporting him throughout his comeback.

Rays GM Andrew Friedman has admitted publicly to a strong personal relationship with Rocco, something that surely won't cloud his brain when he seeks a hometown discount. There has been some talk of offering Rocco a minor-league deal, giving the chance to win a job and a heavily incentive-based contract. As Adam Loewen showed the good people of Baltimore, sometimes players hear whispers. The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo already suggested Rocco as an ideal fourth outfielder for the Red Sox, another type of homecoming for Rocco. The kind that makes skin crawl in both Toronto and St Pete.

I'm on the record (over and over) stating that Rocco the Blue Jay makes sense to more than just my latent homosexuality. If the Jays don't pick up a DH-styled slugger (Hank Blalock? Billy Butler? Please let it be Billy Butler), meaning Snider and Lind are to break camp splitting time between LF and DH, Rocco would be an IDEAL fourth outfielder. Thanks in no small part to Overmanagin Joe Maddon, Rocco's role this season wasn't true platoon but he was certainly more involved than Mencherson late in the season.

Despite Tinkerin' Joe Maddon consistently defensively replacing him late in games, Rocco's an outstanding defensive outfielder with a strong arm that could serve as something of a (gasp) Reed Johnson-type in the Jays outfield. He could mentor both conscientious defensive objector Adam Lind and inexperienced route-taker and noted burlyman Travis Snider. The Dome would keep him from stiffening up in the cold weather of the spring and fall, his reasonably even split stats would allow him to step in against tough lefties and spell Vernon Wells when he gets his inevitable case of the ouchies.

This probably won't happen, for several reasons. Rocco will re-sign in Tampa being the most prominent. The Jays obviously aren't too concerned wit the bench production in their outfield and loading up for 2009 is a very limited possibility. But a guy can dream.

Fielding Bible as Worthless as Regular Bible

The Fielding Bible awards were announced today, and despite the Blue Jays being one of the best defensive teams in baseball, they were conspicuously absent from the list of winners. It's tough to argue most names on the list, but I'll place my homer blinders on and do it gladly.

Adrian Beltre and his +32 plus/minus was the third base winner, edging out Evan Longoria(!) according to Geoff Baker. Beltre's RZR wasn't nearly as good as local hero Scott Rolen, but he made an astounding 30 out of zone plays more than Rolen. Watching as many Mariners' games as I did, I observed Beltre charging weak ground balls and bunts nearly as well as Mt. Rolen, which is high praise as far as I'm concerned. Beltre was charged with 15 "errors", 5 throwing versus 10 fielding, similar to Rolen's 2 and 9 split. Numbers like that make sense for rangey guys, the type that will make an error on a ground ball most won't get to, but rarely throw the ball away.

In other words, it is hard to beef with Beltre. Longoria, however, I will contest. In almost identical innings to Rolen, Longroria got to fewer out of zone balls and made plays in his zone at a slightly lesser rate. Longroria started far more double plays, which I suspect is out of a third basemen's hands. Evan also made 4 more throwing errors, as I observed at 9:15 during Game 7 of the ALCS, likely attempting to throw across his body off one leg. A difficult play that perhaps 5 year veteran Evan Longoria chooses to eat rather than heave. The kid can play, but let's not play his rusty trombone quite yet.

The award for right field went to Ricky Guiterriez of the Cleveland Indians. Guiterriez displayed incredible range this season, getting to more out of zone balls than Alex Rios in fewer innings, all while making nearly 96% of the plays in his zone. Everybody loves Alex Rios, he of the (to paraphrase Jonathon Hale) incredibly long strides (range) to trump his bootybacked routes. One huge advantage for Rios is his arm. Over his career, Guiterriez has never shown to have anything but an average outfield arm, while Rios sports a rocketship powered by superlatives. Franky's arm has rated below league average at holding runners in place and creating outs on the basepaths. Were I to wager, I would assume Alex Rios slept with at least Bill James's daughters and wife. Minimum wife.



Lyle Overbay's long under-appreciated defense continues to lack appreciation and pigment. Overbay had another excellent year defensively, but it still didn't compare to Albert Pujols. Pujols is a freak of nature with the work ethic of a desperate Cape Bretoner, yearning to be free. Most fielding metrics have a hard time with first base and the ambiguity of infield throws in the dirt, and I haven't seen enough of Pujols defensively to make a fair assessment beyond the advantage he has in most basic statistical categories. I will say Albert deserved the award out of fear of him crushing my skull in anger.

Most of the selections make all sorts of sense, though Chutely showed during the World Series that he's all man. Bill James and his apostles fine work is appreciated by novices like me, despite my attempts to split the finest hairs. Luxurious hairs that smell of sweet talking points and numerical intrigue.

The Shot Heard 'Round My Loins

Congrats to the Phillies and, as I must add by decree in the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, Matt Stairs.

Oh, and Joe Maddon: When you pinch hit for Rocco AND leave your season up to Eric Hinske in the same inning, predictable things happen.

I'm sure it's the furthest thing from his mind, but Rocco is now a free agent. I will commence greasing the wheels of conjecture today and every day until he signs. OPEN ARMS SIR.

Picture stolen from teh Yahooz

The Globe and Fail

Of all people on this earth, I should be the last one to point out typos and oversights in our national newspaper. But if I don't do it, who will?

First we have this, from Robert MacLeod's piece on Philadelphia's championship drought.


I know Robert MacLeod knows Jimmy Rollins is a shortstop. You know Robert MacLeod knows Jimmy Rollins is a shortstop. Robert MacLeod knows that Robert MacLeod knows Jimmy Rollins is a shortstop. Then how did it make it to print and still sits uncorrected on the website?

The print edition of Blair's piece on Pat Gillick references the Seattle Mariners as the fourth place finisher in the American League Central. It has been corrected online, and Blair himself copped to the error in the comments section, but it's unsettling to see. Tight deadlines make baby Jesus cry, and good writers suffer.

Akinori "E"wamura

Six Gold Gloves in Japan doesn't mean shit when you're playing in the World Series. If you can't make plays when you're supposed to, you aren't going to win. It's just that simple.

It ends tonight.

Listen to Your Heart, Joe Maddon

You seem like a smart guy, and I'm sure you employ new fangled baseball stats on a daily basis. Today is one time to ignore all that bunkum.

Right Fielder	WPA	Team Record in Playoff Starts
Gabe Gross	-0.44	3-3
Ben Zobrist	-0.02	0-3
Rocco Baldelli	-0.04	4-1

Just do it Joe, you know it feels right. Your team has its back to the wall, facing the brink, is drowning in cliche. You have nothing to lose. You're getting less production out of right field than if you left it empty. Your team's won 3 outta 4 in Rocco's starts, almost in spite of him. But fuck that noise Joe, do what is right. NOTHING TO LOSE!

Except a fairweather fanbase waiting for the other shoe to drop.

It's just that simple Joe. He plays, you win. Everyone wins in the end. Everyone.

Update!!!

Joe Maddon knows what the fuck is up.

This post brought to you by the Murder City Devils and my wholly unsatisfying job.



Fancypants playoff WPA via Fangraphs.