Tuesday, February 10, 2009

I'm Going to Egg Nate Silver's House

I'll crush your hopes and dreams when Firefly is overThat's right Mr. Fancypants election-predictor. I've had it up to HERE with your anti-Blue Jay numerical bias. Sir your continued devotion to algorithms and alchemy have had their day in the sun cowering from the Earth's unfamiliar, retina-burning Sun. You unleashed your latest "projections" onto the world, and I couldn't help but notice you only computed 81 wins for the Toronto Blue Jays baseball club. 81! The eggs are soon to rain down upon your domicile my friend, I only hope you have a large enough pocket protector to spare your mother's rosebushes.

81 wins, yet you believe they'll only allow 692 runs? That doesn't even seem fair. That's 80 more than they allowed last year. So what if it's still the third lowest total in the league. IT'S STILL ONLY THIRD BEST IN OUR OWN DIVISION. Apparently you haven't heard of a certain reclamation project named Matt fucking Clement!

At least you had the good sense to extend a peace offering to the Jays offense. A tidy 16 run increase, fuck you very much. Only a team on base percentage of .319? Apparently your little adding machine didn't input the prodigious walk totals of Alex Rios, Vernon Wells and Adam Lind, our starting outfield. I don't care if they had fewer walks combined than Carlos Pena, BJ Upton, and Nick Markakis had individually. There's been change of philosophy. Cito makes them chill, you see.

Why can't you be more like Bill James? Kindly old Bill James, all his projections seem to favor the Blue Jays. He sees big things for Vernon Wells, for Travis Snider, and for Adam Lind too!

So screw you PECTOA elves, you were way off last year. (77 wins, are you joking??) I don't need your love or affirmation. You don't play the game with a slide rule nerd. You play it with your heart, and with dirt on your uniform. Grit! Scrapgritastic! [Sniff] Now look what you've done, I've smeared eye black all over my boxer shorts. I hope you're happy, you heartless devil!


  1. 81 wins isn't so bad, but .500 baseball is much more watchable when you've got dingers galore--like in the Fregosi years--and cheap Dome Lager beer-flavoured beverage.

    Until everyone's healthy in 2010, divisional realignment, the return of the balanced schedule, a ban on overslot draft bonuses, the Jays get sold, etc., serenity now.

    Serenity now, motherfuckers.


  2. Lookout Landing were debating the PECOTA simulation, and they think PECOTA underrates strong defensive teams by not paying any attention to defense. Also PECOTA thinks Ichiro is Damaso Garcia, and projects playing time stupidly.

  3. My Walkoff Walk brothers debated PECOTA in the fall, and I tend to agree that it does individual players well. Over a full roster the deviation compounds making them harder to accurately project.

  4. Former #1 draft pick Matt Bush to the Jays! Fathers, lock up your daughters and liquor cabinets.

  5. Expected win differential
    for 2009 +33 runs
    actual 2008 +104
    2007 +54
    2006 +55
    2005 +70
    season from hell -104
    2003 +68
    2002 -15
    I just can't see this team that just lost "100 earned runs against" Burnett and still drop 71 runs with almost an identical team returning. I'll take the over on +50 runs.
    -brent in Korea

  6. A stirring round of angry smallman syndrome for all!

    I'll take bad rather than overlooked. I demand satisfaction dammit.

  7. Basically every single player on the Jays improved their numbers after Cito took over and yet that doesn't transfer at all.

    Their projections for our outfield are eye rolling.

  8. I also want to know where they get a .500 record from their own prediction of a +38 run differential, considering they have Cleveland winning 84 with a +5. Pythagenpat says 730-692 should be 85 wins.

  9. 1. I hate PECOTA, always have

    2. If indeed they projected 77 wins last year then I take particular satisfaction in (a) winning 9 more games than that; and (b) pythaging a full 15 wins more - reinforces my opinion that PECOTA sucks (and bodes well for this season)

    3. What Torgen said. 85 wins would be a much more tolerable projection.

    4. Only scoring 20 more runs than last year? Please! A full season from Hill, Lind, and Snider should do that, even with conservative expectations.

    5. Giving up 80 more runs? Unlikely. But I guess "regression to the mean" would account for the biggest part of that so I won't quibble there - it just goes to show how incredibly good the pitching was last year.

    So, obviously, I don't take this projection seriously.

    Question - is there a pythag calculator freely available on-line? The sort where one could enter a given number of runs scored and allowed and get a win total projection?

  10. If you have access to a Haskell interpreter, type:
    let pythagenpat g rs ra = g / (1 + (ra/rs) ** (((rs + ra)/g) ** 0.287))
    Now you can type things like:
    pythagenpat 162 730 692
    and get output like:

  11. Hey, you probably check your blog email about as much as I do soooo... check it.

  12. I've got money on the over.

    Still taking bets. Holla.


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