Like Idiotic Moths to the Flame

Here's a news flash for you: Mike Toth is an idiot. I'm almost embarrassed to take the bait here, but what the fuck is Toth thinking? Halladay should make time for local hacks (or worse, someone like me) to ask the same mundane question over and over? While Toth's prep-work for his job seems to entail stealing bad jokes from retirement home comics, Halladay's kind of a big deal. Toth's decision to compare him to Clemens and Carlton may have some merit, except no one considers Roy to be a "selfish boor." His teammates love him, they look up to him and learn from him. Was Halladay acting as like a selfish boor when he worked out with Jesse Litsch all winter, helping him prepare for his (small b) breakout season?

Kid gloves? What kind of expose/takedown did you have in mind Mr Woodward? Should Roy Halladay be more like your previously identified idol Gary Carter? The kind of jackass who, if his teammates needed to find, the best place to look would be "in front of the nearest camera." You're right Tother, Roy fucking Halladay needs to be more of a selfish, self-promoting clown like Gary Carter and less of a strike-throwing, humongous return on investment to his employer supplying machine and more of a loud-mouthed shill. Thanks for pointing that out.

Toronto the Pathetic

Last night's turnout: awesome. Toronto's steadfast insistence to prove Jeff Passan right? Not so hot. What the fuck is up with this town and the pathetic inferiority complex? You flew from Calgary to boo AJ Burnett? YOU'RE AN IDIOT. What does it prove?

Read this piece on Andrew Reilly of The 35th Street Review's trip to Philadelphia. Is that how you want to end up? A bunch of sad, impossibly bitter losers living only to spew scorn for the sake of scorn. If you booed Carlos Delgado: you're an idiot. If you still boo Vince Carter, you're an idiot. GET OVER IT. HE'S BEEN GONE LONGER THAN HE WAS HERE. He's the best player the Raptors have ever and will ever see. Such pettiness is pretty unbecoming from a city that loves to fashion itself so decidedly un-American.

Boo A-Rod, boo the Youkilis, have a good time with it. But trying to conjour up animosity for former players who had the AUDACITY to leave your fair city? Get a fucking life.

Image courtesy of Flickr user pyrogenic

Moneyed Misanthrope Meets Machine-like Mentor in Mid-Sized May Match Up

It doesn't get much better than this. Do us right Toronto, do us right.

As Mop Up Duty pointed out, the Jays have a few guys known to kill fastballs. Especially first pitch fastballs. The Jays haven't faired well against power pitchers this year, quite the opposite of the three preceding seasons. If the patient guys can wait out his fastballs and the eager guys can jump all over his fastballs, hopefully it will neuter his Hammer of Doom

A motivated Burnett can be a scary thing, so here's hoping for a tight strike zone early on. Like a college girl with daddy issues, I could go for a good hatefucking tonight.

Erectus Interuptus

The Brett Cecil love is coming fast and furious, but "win two tomorrow" Cito had to go and ruin it:

Don't forget, Cecil was a closer in college, so he can pitch out of the bullpen, too....But I can't say enough how (Cecil) pitched," Gaston continued. He went out and threw strikes. You hope it's the start of something good for him.

Seriously Cito? IT IS a good START for him, in his career as a potential number 2 STARTER.

Never mind that your bullpen is already one of the best in the game. How can you advocate wasting a talent like Cecil's in the bullpen? Just look at the Jays bullpen, for example. All scrapheap finds and reclamation projects. No place for a highly-touted draft pick. The last thing I need in my life is play Canadian J from 3:10; explaining over and over (and over again) how much more valuable an arm like Cecil's is in the starting rotation. 140 innings versus 60 innings, not a debate.

Perhaps you'd move Cecil into the bullpen after the all star break, as an anonymous commenter suggested. Acting under the assumption the Jays will still be contending at that time (p!), the team simply doesn't benefit for a list of reasons. Adding another lefty back there serves no real purpose. I love the way Tallet's pitched; but if the choice is between him and Cecil I'll take the kid until the numbers tell me other wise. If you are simply going to showcase another of the fringe starters, I guess I'll understand. Once again it comes back to skills and ceilings. Right now Cecil's is higher than any of the young pitchers, he deserves the best shot to succeed.

Awesome Stuff from the Fangraphs Institute of Baseball & Divorce

Who knew? The good people at Fangraphs recently added two new features to suck your life away. Firstly, they've added in-season ZIPS projections. Adding the rest of season projection to what Aaron Hill's already done, you get a line of .311/.358/.466 or a .824 OPS. So he'll slow down but only drop 80 points from his current OPS? Sold. ZIPS figures Alex Rios will pick it up and OPS .809 over the remainder of the season. Sold again. Check out each player's ZIPS on their individual pages.

You'll also notice they added Bill Jame's speed score to the advanced stats tab. The speed score is "an average of Stolen Base Percentage, Frequency of Stolen Base Attempts, Percentage of Triples, and Runs Scored Percentage." Unsurprisingly, the Jays speediest players this season have been Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. Somewhat surprising to see very, very large man (or Manmountain) Scott Rolen rank fourth this season and fifth in 2008. This isn't a baserunning metric remember, a distinction clearly embodied by the Blissfully Oblivious Gazelle's (TM Tao) speed score ranking significantly higher than his "do you have any idea what you're doing out there" metric. The oft pinch-run-for and slightly wooden Adam Lind once again ranks as a great Jays baserunner.

A Moment of Perspective

Nope. Sorry. I've got none. My Necktie is tied so tight, I can barely breathe. Not that I mind, what's a little auto-erotic asphyxiation between friends?

Seriously though: Read The Mockingbird's take on Brett Cecil (based only on his first start, mind you) and tell me he shouldn't hit his Verducci Number (approx. 140 IP) in the big leagues this year. Tell me Brian Tallet doesn't deserve to stay in the rotation until he proves he doesn't belong. Tell me Jesse Litsch, lovable as he may be, deserves a rotation spot no questions asked upon his return (you can't.) It's not about the next big thing, it's about stuff. Missing bats, changing speeds, genetic defects (being left handed is good? Now I've heard everything!), and surviving mistakes. Put another way: repeatable skills crucial to long-term success.

Will the league figure out Richmond's nasty slider after another go around the league? Will the league take note of Cecil tipping his pitches behind his back? They just might, but either way the Jays are in an enviable position as you well know.

But I don't want to get carried way.

High on the Hog

Things are so good in Blue Jay Land right now, we can afford to noodle around on the internet without a care in the world. During such a noodle session this afternoon, I came across an article on Slate that was shockingly interesting.

The premise is this: explain baseball in 150 words or less. The author needs to help his 6 year old son understand and appreciate baseball, so he opened it up to the contrarian public that reads Slate. The results varied from the wistful ("apple pie and the smell of the grass brother!") to the thoughtful ("it's like tag") to the negative ("it's boring.") One I liked in particular:

All of the little league coaches who told kids to go up there hacking and made them ashamed to strike out have fostered generations of people who can't comprehend the value of driving the ball. The worst myth ever put upon us was the idea that baseball is about putting the ball in play. It's about putting hard-hit balls in play. Extra-base hits win games.

Right on the money, friend. Anyway, how would YOU describe baseball in 150 words or less? Of course you would, that's easy. Let's make it interesting, can you describe baseball in 15 words or less?

Here's my first attempt:

Hit ball, run until you can't. Touch plate. Wear glove, run after ball. Throw. Spit.

How about a second try:

Solo glory plus team achievement equals douchemagnet. Learn to be left handed or fuck off.

As for the Blue Jays

What, there's still debate? Don't they just show up and win? That's just what happens now, isn't it? I like what I saw from Travis Snider last night, hopefully he can smash some Jered Weaver gawkballs around the yard for good measure. Thanks to everyone that came out to the glog last night, shit was real. Melongate!

Various & Sundry Bonerdom

I don't care how soft their schedule's been; how bad the various pitching staffs they've faced are: the Jays will worsening the fuck out of you and everything you hold dear. Some bullpen hiccups, some luck (some bad but mostly overwhelmingly good), games both given and taken away, it all adds up to an entertaining first week of May. Some thoughts from all over.

Brett Cecil: Heaven Sent

Soooo, Brett Cecil is pretty good, I'd say. Some strangely poor defense behind him and the ridiculous offensive strategy the Indians went with "Hey, let's see what happens if I stick my arm in front of this curveball!" Fuck them. Cecil was much bigger than I expected, wore more jewelery on the mound than Mr. T, and changed speeds better than a drunk through a radar trap. Brooks Baseball's Pitch fx tells us he brings the heat (topped out at 95!) and threw all his pitches for strikes. Very impressive. He wasn't afraid to pitch inside and generally impressed more 10 to 15 times more than I thought he would. I wonder if he's up for the duration? He'll certainly be given a chance to pitch himself out of a job.

One last thing we will note now and forever more: Vegas stats mean less than nothing.

Life Above Replacement

The always excellent Yankees Replacement Level Blog calculated the WAR (wins above replacement) for each team at each position in the American League. Unsurprisingly, the Jays are at or above replacement level at every single position around the diamond. Somewhat surprisingly, thanks to poor defense (!?), the Jays outfield has barely played above replacement level. The amazing infield play is manifested in a first place ranking for shortstops, third place for third basemen (fuck you, haters), surprising seventh for second basemen (negative defense, what gives?) and second place WAR for first basemen. Really interesting stuff, I highly recommend clicking on through.

More Crap

• Make sure you check out Walkoff Walk every day, I'm posting regularly through the week for while. There is inevitably Jays content shoehorned into every post.
  
• Adam Lind ranks third in pitches/plate appearance in all of baseball. Guess what, he's awesome.
  
• Jays are on the West Coast which means I'll finally be able to liveblog a Jays game on the Score! Check it out tonight at 10pm! PS Follow me on Twitter.
  
• Lots of "is Toronto for real" stuff floating around. The strength of schedule? The strength of my boner will tell you all you need to know.

Chin Chin

A tough, extra innings loss can really weigh on your conscience. No matter how it went wrong, you can always point to a moment where it could have turned around. Best to wake up early, make sure your shit's tight (hair, beard, hobo novelty sideburns, or whatever), pull on your best suit and look forward with purpose. A positive mental outlook makes it easy to soldier on.

One note on your suit. Styles change with time. Ties get short and fat, long and skinny, short and skinny, long and fat (like yer moms) but one thing will always be true: when you're wearing A CECILLIAN NECKTIE, nothing bad will ever happen.

The future is now friends, best look the part.

Wring Out the Funsponge

I decided against predictions before this season started as they're a good way to look like an idiot. I have no problem doing that on a daily basis, no need to fuel the fire. I did go out on a limb with one clear forecast among my nebulous stabs in the dark:

Travis Snider will have a good season and spend time in Vegas.

Sadly, I feel the time has come for Sniderman to spend a couple weeks gathering himself in America's preeminent adult playground outlet mall epicenter.

You may say "Vegas? He won't learn to control the strikezone or improve his pitch recognition when everything he wheels on flies out of the park!" You'd be right, to an extent. The situation seems very, very familiar. Almost as though the Jays went through it with Carlos Delgado in 1994. Ahh, those were the strike-shortened days. King Carlos started the season like house on fire, clubbing 8 tater tots in the April. The signs of trouble were evident though, as Carlos did almost all his damage before April 20th and didn't hit one double until his home runs dried up.

Right now, Travis Snider is scuffling. He's not making great contact, flying out too much, and generally doing too little at the plate. Going into tonight's (Monday) game; his BB/K is down to 0.43, lower than Delgado's 1994 mark. His line drive rate has shrunk to 11% with his GB/FB sitting even at "way too fucking high." Even his rate of home runs per fly ball is getting a little on the low side (for a clear-cut power hitter.) The strangest fact is one I wasn't prepared for: he's almost stopped striking out. Snider's only struck out 3 times in the past 8 games. Encouraging, no? Except that he only has one walk over that span and a mere three line drives. Hrm.

Maybe I'm overreacting? Perhaps Travis Snider is one slight adjustment away from returning to a state of constant mash. What does the contact information suggest? Travis Snider doesn't get cheated, that much is for sure. The second swingingest guy on the team behind Rod "Youkilis" Barajas. One key difference between Rod and Snider: contact. Travis Snider swings at almost the same percentage of pitches outside the zone but only hits 44% of them, by far the lowest on the team. Maybe that's a good thing, maybe he's being fooled by offspeed pitches (he's seeing a lot) and getting himself into 2 strike holes? Perhaps Snider became wary of his strikeout numbers, shortened up to avoid the Ks and now fancies himself some sort of budget-Ichiro? God, I hope not.

The million dollar question remains: while he may be out of sorts at the big league level, what will Travis Snider learn from a month or two in AAA? I encourage you to correct me if I'm wrong, but AAA pitchers are more likely to be journeyman junkballers hoping for a spot-start than the live-but-raw-armed prospects of the lower minor leagues. Doubly true in the PCL, where errant fastballs go to die. Let Snider work on his pitch recognition or whatever you want to call it, rebuild the confidence Cito's failed to imbue in him by forcing him to bunt and sit against lefties and off you go. To me; Snider's yet to enter the "nothing left to prove at AAA" stage.

This isn't what I want, I love to watch Snider play. He's actually impressed me in the field and he seems to be a good soldier that enjoys a good walkoff mosh. But he needs to sort some stuff out at the plate. If the Jays continue to play well and compete, can we honestly justify him learning on the job at the expense of the team? I know it's too early to suggest such things, but why not bring up some outfield stiff (or Buck fucking Coats for laughs) and let Millar DH until his bat runs cold. Maybe even slow down Snider's clock a little bit, just for fiduciary shits and giggles. Let's just make get him right, sooner rather than later. It worked out for Delgado, didn't it?

Image courtesy of Daylife thievery corporation

Admit it, You're a Little More than Curious

Hey, I remember you. It was more than a year ago that we first spoke. You were going through some things, you weren't quite sure of some strange, new feelings.

They say absence makes the heart grow fonder, but you're don't think so. I was away for so long, my injury so nagging; you didn't think you'd ever look at me the same way ever again. Turn the calender from April to May and the Meter of Appropriateness turns from uncomfortable to litigious. I understand why you might not be thinking straight.

Let's cut the bullshit: I know I'm out there, killing it each and every day. Line drives? Constant. Walks? Sure, whatever. OPS of 1.00 on the number? Gimme a day, I've got to sort some shit out. Home runs? Yeah, I'm leading the team, so the fuck what? Clutch? Wouldn't you like to know.

So yeah dude, I'll keep saying all the right things. "Just trying to help the team win" and shit. But don't kid yourself, I see you out there. Eying the middle of the diamond like never before, getting uncomfortable, chugging the rest of your $10 beer. It's cool man, I've seen way bigger and way harder men fall by the wayside in my day. I'll just keep doing my thing, knowing how much power I have over your life. Don't sweat it brah, I'll keep that shit just between us.

Reality is a Ride on the Bus

A rough go in Kansas City should not distract from one very, very important piece of information: the Toronto Blue Jays are in first place on May 1st! That is, simply, amazing. Did YOU predict that? No, no you did not. Losing 3 of 4 after facing the Royals less-than-imposing lineup may leave a bad taste in your mouth, but it's Friday, it's already May, I noticed the Dome was open yesterday from my perch high atop the Manilla envelope factory that employs me. The Jays ease into their AL East schedule against the predictable Orioles, with none other than Roy Halladay on the hill.

All good things. Good enough to make you forget your book treatment's been turned down for the fourth time. Horseshit! I can't believe nobody wants to read about a team of teenage magicians (conflicted about their powers, of course) teaming with an idealistic lawyer (fresh out of law school, of course) to protect Batman's secret identity from a cabal of adolescent vampires (abstinent, of course) backed by a shadow corporation (conspiratorial, or course) out to silence a cancer-stricken Rabbi who's final sermon will open the minds of people everywhere; exposing the secrets to life-long bliss and interest-free loans. No vision, that must be their problem.

I have one question, one I certainly can't answer: with the Jays in first place on May 1st, is this season officially a success? One month in first is certainly better than zero days, weeks, or months spent out front over the last few years. If the team ends up with 80-odd wins for the fourth year in a row, this season is automatically more successful than the previous years, isn't it? Maybe I'm reaching and hedging like always. But I certainly didn't expect the first month to go so well, and being pleasantly surprised will quiet my complaints, for a little while anyway.