Quick Words on Alex Rios

Relax.

No, he doesn't look good right now. Some might even say he looks lost. But let's take a few things into account, just to make ourselves feel better.

His BABIP is very low compared to his line drive rate, which is very high (almost 30%). Very, very high. Hitting line drives is good for business, so long as he keeps that up he'll be good. He's just hitting it at people. He was, I should add. He hasn't hit a line drive since last Saturday in Minnesota. Ouch.

Remember the point I've been hammering on for two weeks now? I've been praising Rios's walk rate because, for him, it's absurdly high. It was, I should add. His walk yesterday was his first since Cleveland. His pitches per plate appearance are normal, he's just not making good contact.

Kman from Mop Up Duty suggested Alex needs to keep his ground ball numbers down to be successful, something he surely isn't doing now. His GB rate is well above his career number and still well above his fly ball rate, too. Since the Jays left Cleveland Rios has been racking up the ground balls at a frightening rate. 12 in the last five games. Yikes. What was the point of this again?

Oh, I remember! The picture dummy! Walk off jacks! Playoffs! Look at that picture closely, do you see a really tall Puerto Rican guy? I don't. I noticed during the highlights Rios was one of the last one to the pile-on and is effort was lacking. Is this a real thing worth thinking about? No. It isn't. Though baseball players are pretty much ridiculous. If the rest of the team thinks he's putting himself before a winning team, it will be blackball city for Alexis. Clearly he doesn't need the grief right now.

So we should all relax. He's just in a slump. Of epic proportions. He'll be fine. Or else!

Hail to the King

I know he's not a Jay anymore, and he's unlikely to ever be one again, but how fucking awesome is Carlos Delgado? I've stated before they should straight up retire his number, none of that Level of Excellence shit. He's awesome to watch, swings a slick stick when the weather is nice, and he keeps his head much farther from his ass than most ballplayers.

His awesomeness rich but pitching poor Puerto Rican team's ouster from the WBC is a real shame, specifically because it was Carlos's team. He asked to wear Roberto Clemente's number 21 in 2006, some PR suits said no. This time around they asked him to wear it! Awesome.

Carlos Delgado's offensive projections for 2009 are pretty consistent, offering between 28 and 36 home runs, wOBA's from .343 to .372, and offensive wins above average from 0.5 to 2.5. Aside from wrist injury hampered 2007 (Overgado!), Carlos has provided about 3 wins a season since 2004. Depending on the economic climate next winter, he could make any team needing a classy motherfucker to DH happy.

Alex Rios in his element

Not content to let Delgado steal all my love, Alex Rios did all the Riosian things we should expect of him in 2009. Stolen base, massive home run, strong (but hopelessly late) throw to the plate, and my favorite: the incredulous look he shot Carlos Betran after the Met stole a home run from Brian McCann. It's as if Rios didn't know to react, like he wasn't allowed to be happy that they were in a good position to win the game. Oh Alex, you're my sketchpad.

Korean Baseball - Small but Powerful

I love American broadcasters using "Asian" interchangeably with "girly-armed sissyball", but the Koreans have pop. They've hit more home runs at Petco than the cartoonishly flashy Cubans. I don't know what it is, but I don't want Cuba to succeed. Must be the skinny baseball pants and the indentured servitude. One of the two.

Bleed Maple Syrup

I don't see many Canadian movies, but seeing One Week today more than made up for that. It is easily THE MOST CANADIAN MOVIE OF ALL TIME. Not that it wasn't enjoyable, despite being a saccharine hybrid cancer/road movie. If Joel Plaskett busking and Gord Downie puffing are your thing, check it out soon. You know you love Pacey, don't try and deny it.

Let the Right One In

Seems like every vein of the vast Blue Jays deposits have been stripmined by writers and bloggers alike. First we had Brett Cecil Day and recently we all lined up for the Million Mills March. Johnny Mac, Matt Clement, Aaron Hill, Scott Rolen, and of course Vernon Wells have spit quotes and positivity for the coming year.

Somewhat frighteningly, aside from the occasional slip of chauvinism, we haven't heard much about Alex Rios. How can that be? Is there another player who's output controls the entire team's fortunes more directly? Which Alex Rios will we get?

For each of the past three season, Alex Rios has been two different players. Strong first half is interrupted by full blown itis leading to a weak second half. Strong first half gives way to home run derbyitis and a weak second half. Middling first half before an infusion of Citocity leading to a strong finish to the season. What gives?

Alex Rios is nothing if not frustrating, and we've all watched him throw at bats away. Last year Professor Hale uncovered some troubling posture issues that may have interfered with his power stroke. I've decided to go full nerd and examine his contact rate and out of zone swing numbers. Exciting stuff, I know.

Thanks to Fangraphs, I can look at Rios's monthly plate discipline splits. I decided to compare his monthly contract rate, starting with April 2006 with his monthly OPS splits over the same time frame. His OPS remains pretty steady over his career, with some huge months and a few real dogs mixed in. Mind my terrible Excel skills, but here we go:


The pink dot represents his career marks, with the one outlier being July 2006, a month in which he made only 14 plate appearances. What does this mean? Shockingly enough, the more Alex puts the bat on the ball, the better he does! How's your mind? Mine is pretty fucking blown right now. The R squared number indicates the relationship between contact rate and OPS in this instance. 61% of OPS is contact rate? Not likely. These sample sizes are pretty small and I have no fucking clue what I'm doing.

My next thought was "what will make his contract rate go up, since that is obviously the desired outcome?" Walp, let's so how Alex stacks up. Is swinging at out of the zone junk bad for his health?


This relationship is much weaker, but definitely shows a connection between swing at crap and putting the ball into play. July 2006 is off the reservation once again, were I credible in any way I'd have discounted it long ago. The Pink Dot again represents his career numbers; not to mention a tremendous scene in my favorite movie of all time.

So what can we expect from not-so-young Alex in 2009? Hopefully a disciplined yet aggressive approach. Both he and Vernon are free swingers, but need to ensure they're swinging at strikes to maximize their talents. I'm new to this "graphing and trying to figure shit out" business, so if any smart people have any feedback or if you'd like to see the raw numbers I stole, please help me out in the comments.

Wells Runs Dry

A couple nice chunks on the interwebs yesterday regarding defense. The obsessives at Fangraphs discuss deploying 3 center fielders at once to create a superb run saving juggernaut. The examples of the Rays, Orioles, and Mariners use three CF-style glovemen to cheaply prevent runs rather than expensively create them with a DH-in-waiting. I started to think "the Jays have a similar set up! They have two CFs and one kid that can play either corner spot." I then remembered that Vernon Wells is far from an effective center fielder anymore. We can all acknowledge that he had a down 2008 defensively, but I was amazed how far down it was. His UZR/150 games was a miserable -21.5 and his Dewan +/- was an equally depressing -16. So he either lost a step, or was playing hurt, or both. That's fine, I'll accept it to a point.

I've always held the belief that Vernon Wells has a strong, accurate arm; not overwhelming but effective none the less. I based this opinion on nothing but false hope, kind of like the friend of yours that convinces himself that the stripper LOVES him, not just cocaine. The Hardball Times published the results of their outfield arms research for 2008, and it doesn't look good for Vernon.


This chart (courtesy of the Hardball Times) shows Vernon to be slightly above average at throwing runners out but below average at holding them on. The most troubling aspect is how much of an outlier Vernon is among center fielders. He's far behind the field in holding runners while offering very few kills above average. People just don't respect his arm, it would seem. Troubling indeed.

This brings us to young Alexis. Alex Rios, as I've discussed ad nauseum, is a tremendous fielder. He also has a great arm, splitting time between right and center in 2008 to the tune of about +8 runs in 150 opportunities, compared to Vernon's -1.9 per 200 opportunities. So he can throw it better, and he can go get it better. Does that mean, in spite of his offensive struggles when slotted into center, it's time for Rios to move there full time?

If he can normalize his offensive performance from that position, I say yes. But not until Travis Snider is ready to play every day. In a too small to seriously consider sample size, Snider was an excellent right fielder in the big leagues. Add his plus arm (so sayeth the KLAW!) and hopefully big bat, and he sounds like a good candidate for every day right fielder. Moving Vernon Wells to left hopefully lends him a few steps in the outfield (hello Johnny Damon) and his arm, which figures to the be the worst of the three, is in the least impactful position. Wells may balk at a move to left just before his potential opt out year, and may recover his previous slightly above average form in centerfield. But if the Jays aren't going to shell out quite yet for a big bat, preventing runs and maximizing the skill set of the outfielders trumps Vernon's pride and his agent's tears every time.

Thanks to John Walsh for the chart and insight

Grecian/Spanish Friction Hits All-Time High

My first thought when I heard Nick Markakis signed a very familiar 6 year, $60+ million dollar contract extension was "Alex Rios is officially overpaid." Markakis is often in my thoughts, while Alex Rios has become our reality. Not that I'm complaining, but initially they don't compare quite so well. Markakis is like Rios with a lot more patience and very similar power output. The Greek Rocco notched 43 home runs over the past two years to Winfield Lite's 39. He actually bested Alex's superlative 47 doubles in 2008 with 48 of his own.

But then I remembered that I'm supposed to be some kind of holistic baseball try-hard, it couldn't be so cut and dry. So I let some much smarter people than I do all the work, and I realized that despite their nearly identical numbers in 2007, Alex Rios was worth a full win more than Markakis. And despite having creating nearly 20 runs of offense above average fewer than Nick the Greek, Alexis was worth but a half win less overall. How can that be? The Oriole in question had Rios by nearly 40 points of wOBA, a stat that accounts for Rios sudden surge in base larceny??

Oh right, Alex Rios is one of the best outfielders in baseball. How could I forget? UZR, RZR, +/-, they all love Rios. Markakis is no slouch, but using Fangraph's evaluation system, Alex Rios makes up 13 runs because of his defense. He also picks up some bonus points for being able to play both CF and RF well. That doesn't even account for his outstanding arm. Sadly Markakis's gun, just like his ball fetching and forefather's cuisine, is very average.

So what was it? Why did I convince myself that Roccopolous was better than Alex Rios? Could I overlooked his much more offense-minded lineup and position in the order, allowing myself to be swayed by "traditional" numbers like RBI? I'd have to shut this whole blog down and start commenting at Torontosun.com, wouldn't I?

Thankfully, no. The value of Markakis getting on base an extra 50 times should not be diminished. The other point in Nick's favor is his age, especially relative to Rios. Alex Rios has what we like to call "Ryan Howarditis"; he's way older than you realize. Nick Markakis is headed into his 3rd full season at the age of 25, while the Jays right fielder will have reached the tender age of 28 before Opening Day. It should also be noted that Markakis has shown steady growth over each of his big league seasons, while Rios has ridden a roller coaster of staph infections, questioned effort and bastard children.

Realistically, both the Jays and O's are getting exactly what they must if they hope to compete in the AL East: excellent value for their money. Paying Markakis $10 million per year through his 30 year old season or Rios through 31 is sound business, considering their true worth starts somewhere in the neighbourhood of $16 million per year. A figure (plus inflation, naturellement) the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers will gladly pay them come 2013.

Questions from girls

A new semi-regular feature here at GROF HQ will see me, Jesse, your friend and marginal Grofman, fielding a handpicked selection of the several hundred well-meaning and adorably naive questions we receive every month from our vast female readership.

Q. Dear Ghostrunners,
I just caught the movie Bull Durham on a free preview of Moviepix and was sooooo charmed by the character Crash Davis. His mixture of calculated aloofness, non-threateningly fit physique, and ruggedly downhome sense of metaphysics made me glad I faked a stomach ache and cancelled on my best friend's birthday night at the Dance Barrel. My question is sort of like why don't I ever feel this way watching the pro ballplayers' interviews on TV? I'm guessing it's because Crash's team was a country team and not a real team, and when an agent signs you to a baseball contract the money and everything makes it weird, right? I don't know, I just thought it was weird.

— Jenn, 25
Mississauga, Ont.

A. So wait... shit. You're saying that the more conventionally masculine Costner character is the one burrowing ever-deeeper into the lurid precincts of your secret mind? I'm a little tangled up here: my gf says Tim Robbins is the cooler of the two, that his hyper self-conscious countenance and gangly musculature is "adorable" in a way that reminds her of me. Is she blowing smoke here or what's going on? Tell you what, I'm going to come back to this one.


Q. Dear Ghostrunners,
I can't believe it! Listen to this: I went down to Toronto for a Jays game at the SkyDome [sic -ed.] last Thursday with some friends (it was my bff's bday!!!) and I saw that the coach looked like the same guy — black , distinguished-looking and with a mustache — as they had when I was in Grade 7. Now I'm more of a Leafs girl (Tucker 4 eva! lol @ haters w00t) and I can tell you that the coaches in hockey are ALWAYS getting fired. Like, you didn't win the cup, so ok bye love ya lol. Why is baseball so different?

— Becky
Carleton Place, Ont.

A. I'm pretty sure this was sent in by my sister, which is a little fucking kooked out, but nonetheless I'll answer it straight. Being as I am a Senators man, I recently became acquainted with what would prove to be the first of the calendar year's two textbook instances of mere head-coach atavism, which we musn't confuse with the more insidious and chillingly evocative concept of head-coach entrenchment. Other than that, ummm... what does it matter that he's black anyway? I feel like you wouldn't be pointing that out if it weren't some like stereotype-inflected determinant of imagined virility. I want to know what's with this inner obsession with contemplating dating a black man. It's ENDEMIC and, what's more, it's tacky, man. NOTE TO READERS: In future correspondence, please make an effort to stay on topic.

Q. Dear Ghostrunners,
Hi guys, I'm self-employed in the public-relations field, so I more or less set my own hours. A lot of the early part of my day is spent browsing various blogs and web forums pertaining to a variety of things relevant to my work (a lot of my clients could be classified, at least in broad terms, under the "lifestyle" umbrella), and it was in the course of this cherished daily routine that I happened upon your site. First of all, GREAT work! I totally dig the dynamic. The Reverend's and Lloyd's respective voices evince this kind of dialectical good-cop-bad-cop vibe that I'm sure must be a boon for your come-back traffic. (I'd love to have a look at your analytics, by the way.) But I think the site's real strength lies in its lack of pretense. It gets annoying when bloggers act like they're at the vanguard of some New Epoch of Journalism. Give me a break! I appreciate that you guys have a sense of humour about yourselves.

Anyway — shut UP, Lauren :) — here's why I wrote you: I wanted to know how you'd rate the team's stock of minor-league pitching prospects, and whether, in a hypothetical world where the remaining salary attached to a player's contract had no bearing on his trade value, you think it'd behoove the team to move one (or even both) of Wells or Rios to acquire some young arms?

— Lauren, 28
Vancouver, B.C.

A. Yeah, sweet. Here comes Self-Styled Powersuit Career Lady, after spending a half-day skimming blogs, to prove to us what an authority she is. Let me tell you something, Lauren: a big multi-year contract is not something you can just ... just WILL away in accordance with some rose-coloured, pie-in-the-sky scenario you've come up with. "What if the everything were exactly the way I wanted it?" How about what if you had to actually live in the REAL WORLD? A place where you live with the consequences of your actions, where your ass is liable for the cheques written by your mouth, and where you don't just walk away from something you've invested in — something you've BUILT with what might as well be your own two hands, Lauren — for the sake of something else that's younger and more impressionable and ... and...I don't know, something that represents the unknown and carries with it an aura of "mystery," or whatever you want to call whatever dear-diary abstraction it is you're fetishizing this week.

The way I see it, you have two choices: you can continue to play it all Madame Bovary and wonder about what your team might be missing out on, or you can grow up and recognize that Vernon Wells is TRYING and Alex Rios is TRYING. In what universe, other than one conjured within the mind of a spoiled brat who's been handed everything she's ever had, do you have the right to demand anything more?

Talking about "lack of pretense"and "sense of humour about yourselves." Exactly what is that supposed to mean? People who live in glass houses, in which they lollygag around in their Lululemon and "work in public relations" during hours (I'm saying it's more like fractions thereof) of their own capricious choosing, shouldn't throw stones at the heads of dudes who have things called jobs. We do the best we can with the time available to us! You want slick design? You want high-concept Ivy Leaguish writing? Well, why don't go off and find yourself a slick, rigorously edited blog...and leave us alone to do what we do the only way we know how. I'm sure there are tons of prestige blogs maintained by rich college guys with more spare time (and more of mommy and daddy's money) than they could fill in three charmed lifetimes. I'm sure you'll have lots to talk about with them. I feel sorry for you.



Well, that's all for this week, everyone. I want to thank all the girls who wrote in. Keep those queries coming! We don't have room to run every letter, but we'll try and run this feature as often as possible and cram in as many of those questions as we can! You're all a big part of the success of this site and we love you for it. Until next time....

The Denbo regression

Gene Tenace is back and Matt Stairs evidently isn't going to miss ex-hitting coach Gary Denbo that much. According to Stairs, Denbo didn't suit his style. Stairs goes on to mention he doesn't believe he's the only Jay who regressed during Denbo's tenure; adding Denbo's approach most likely contributed to the Jays home-run drought this season. Who fucking hired this guy? Who wouldn't want a hitting coach that sucks the life out of the teams bats? The Jays enter tonight's game with 51 home runs as a team, 43 less than they had at this point last season. Sounds like the Denbo approach was about being a pussy, whereas the Tenace approach is centered on aggressiveness. One only needs to look at the decline in output from someone such as Alex Rios to see that Stairs may very well have a point.

These guys have had success at the dish before and there is no reason they can't again. We've all seen it, and continue to scratch our heads as to why they just can't get it done. Maybe this is the first step in a progression back to confident and productive hitters.

More on this over at the Mockingbird and at baseball digest daily.

What has actually happened...

Rod Barajas has hit a grand slam.

Ryan Howard is hitting a buck eighty eight.

Alex Rios continues to struggle mightily.

Chase Utley could be the next MVP from the Phillies infield.

My computer is now virus-free and less basically all previously stored files.

Fuck yeah, more to come.

New Wonderland Coaster Dubbed "The Blue Jay"

Extra innings on getaway day is a slap in the face. Using 7 relievers in a game before you get to the Citizen's Bank Homerdome is never a good thing.

Dustin McGowan - Has Wildness, Will Travel

It's hard to complain about 5 innings of 2 hit ball. But 5 walks and a HBP do not a great start make. When does gritting it out turn into sloppiness?

Scott Rolen - Has Immense Balls, Tremendous Mass Makes It Difficult to Travel

Holy fucking Shit. Rocco Who? Is there anything he can't do? I hope the boos this weekend in Philadelphia fire him up even further. The are right to boo in a way. Should the sad day ever present itself and Scott Rolen ceases to be a Blue Jay, I will feel downright ROBBED. As if something valuable has been stolen right out from under my nose. And he's only played 18 games.

Manny Ramirez - Has Charisma, Will Convert

I'm sorry, I just can't do it. I can't hate the goofy bastard. I don't care that he's lazy, or that he kills the Jays. He brings an infectious level of joie-de-vivre to the ballpark. He HIGH-FIVED A FAN in the middle of making a great catch and doubling off a runner. He proceeded to the dugout with a huge grin on his face, and regaled the rest of the team with tales of his hijinks. Amazing. Video courtesy of BallHype.

Alex Rios - Has Loopy Swing, Will Whiff

Is it time to be officially worried that Alex Rios is tied for 6th in the league in strikeouts? That his OPS is barely above .700? What is going on? I can only wonder. Tabliniks said his swing is looking long, but is he just not picking the ball up? He is usually a quick starter, so this rough start doesn't bode well. He did have an RBI today. Conventional Thinking 101 dictates he should "let the ball travel" and "really think about going the other way". Emotionally invested, short-sighted blogger thinking dictates that he should "stop sucking" and "get the dick outta his ass". Hopefully he'll go with the former.

Philadelphia Phillies - Have Lefties, Will Tater

The Jays move on to a weekend set against the Phillies in their super-shrinky ballpark. Their lineup is pretty scary from top-to-bottom, including former Jay shitstick (and nephew of DISCO DICK SCHOFIELD!) Jayson Werth. He's actually putting together a reasonable season, with better numbers away from home. This team full of lefties could give the Jays fits. Enter David Purcey. He'll start tomorrow, bringing his big ol'curveball with him. He struggled to throw strikes in his first start, just getting it near the plate will be enough to entice Ryan Howard to swing.

You can't handle it

That's right. You can't. It's April 26th and already you're hitting the panic button like someone needs to be fired, as though the season is lost. The Jays can't hit, we need to do something quick. If we don't, we'll be so far behind we'll have no chance for the post-season.

Hey dipshit, it's baseball. The season is 162 fucking games, not 40. Ever heard of the 2007 Colorado Rockies? That's what I thought. Last time I checked, the American league East wasn't won in April, so calm the fuck down Toronto. Does it suck the Jays aren't hitting and have lost five in a row? Yes, it most definitely does. Do we need to fire John Gibbons, royally fuck with the lineup and go out and find someone who will guarantee us production? No, we most definitely don't.

Everyone needs to relax and remember where the shit we are in the season. Yes it's true if they continue to play the way they are they can kiss any chance of a decent season goodbye, but I for one can't ignore that the talent on this team is good enough and has enough potential to turn it around and make you all eat your shoes.

The OPS Express is in the lineup tonight, Rios is getting hot and it's only a matter of time before the rest follow.

Have some faith.

Glorious Family Day

Indeed it is. In observation of our newest statutory holiday, I am staying home from work, doing absolutely nothing as every honest Canadian Ontarian should. I'm sure some slave driving commercial outlets are making their poor sap employees come in on this holiest of days. Since this is the grandest of holidays I'll keep this short and simply offer updates on two matters on the minds of the entire Jay fan base.

Vernon Wells was quoted as saying his shoulder is "close to 100%" after September surgery ended his worst season in the bigs. The repair of a torn labrum and removal of a cyst were deemed successful, and Wells is optimistic he'll return to the form Jays fans are used to. John Gibbons said his swing seemed "smooth and loose" in the cages. Wells did say he's expected to "feel" something in the shoulder for about a year, but most importantly it will be pain free.

Remember back in December...the Rios for Lincecum trade talks? Well Alex does, and he's happy to be in Florida with the Jays rather than out in the desert with San Fransisco. "I like our team" said Rios, who avoided salary arbitration with the Jays and is signed through this season. Hopefully Rios and the Jays can get something long-term together, though it's not a major concern going into the spring. Rios likes the additions the Jays made during the off-season and is also currently sporting a mohawk, which is badass in it's own right.

The Jays first full squad workout is scheduled for Thursday.

Arbitration is for Suckers

No arbitration hearing for Zhar Ricciardi this year, though even had there been I'm quite sure he would have blown up the room with his thoughts, thus avoiding the hearing(s) all together.

The Jays and All-Star outfielder Alex Rios agreed to terms today on a one year contract that will see him paid US$4.835 million. Rios was the only Jay left in arbitration. I must and am obliged to remind you all that no Jay has gone to salary arbitration since J.P. sauntered into town following the 2001 season. Rios was after $5.65 million in arbitration while the Jays countered with $4.385 million. He earned $2.535 million in 2007.

Broken down he gets a $3.5 million signing bonus and a salary of $1.335 million. Oh yeah, and he gets $15,000 in fun money if (and when) he makes the AL All-Star team. Alex hit .297 last season with 24 HR, 85 RBI's, 17 SB's and 43 2B's.

FACTS YOU NEED TO KNOW

- Rios was born in Coffee, Alabama. Yes, Coffee.
- Rios walking to the plate theme music is "Los Bandoleros" by Don Imar and Tego Calderon.
- Rios has "unlimited potential" and is a "five tool" player
- Chicks are fans
- He is bilingual
- Yes, he has been pied in the face by Vernon Wells during a post game interview