The Fog of War

Things just ain't right inside my thoughthole these days; thankfully I'm well aware and able to trace the source. November despair mixed with general Blue Jays malaise is leading me down a dangerous path though I'm going without a fight.

The heavily-rumored (way to keep it close to the vest AA!) Overbay-for-Snyder deal fell apart on the weekend. Understandable concern for the surgically repaired back of a catcher reportedly queered the deal. As much as I enjoy Overbay and all that he does, I was okay with the move. Overbay would absolutely kill it in that overheated bandbox while Synder potentially brought decent numbers for a catcher with the Snakes footing some of the bill.

So I started to think of other catchers that would work within the Jays indentured servitude youth movement. My mind first came to Chris Iannetta, the somewhat disposed catcher for the Colorado Rockies. Iannetta disappointed the Rockies in 2009 with a low batting average (who cares!) but still posted an excellent walk rate (!), high Ks (meh), and too many fly balls. Basically he swung at too many bad balls and developed a penchant for home run swings. He lost his job to Yorvit Torrealba down the stretch in 2009 though the Rockies had the good sense to decline Yorvit's 2010 option. Iannetta is cheap and under team control for 3 more years, meaning he wouldn't come cheap.

Naturally I strained to think what the Jays could offer to prize the young backstop from the Rockies clutches. Then I remembered I would want to take Matt Murton along with Iannetta. The Rockies have no need for Overbay or any other disposable Blue Jays piece, then my mind turned the corner.

The Jays should trade Roy Halladay to the Rockies.

Have I lost my mind? I'd freely sign up for a 1984-styled Thought Police service if it kept me from even thinking these awful, awful thoughts. After I finished bathing myself in astringents I realized what I'd done. My mind willingly attached Roy Halladay to a trade. The horror! But Halladay is exactly what the Rockies want and need. He's induces ground balls and limits dingers. He's Roy fucking Halladay. He's local. The Rocks have space in their rotation and Halladay would pretty much guarantee them many Rocktobers to come.

What would I demand back from the Rockies in exchange for The Blue Jay? Troy Tulowitzki, obviously. The perverse nature of trading for a player you easily could have drafted is dimished by AA pulling the trigger with Beeston behind him. The taint of passing doesn't stick to them so they can start with Tulo and build from there. That Tulowitzki signed a hilariously team-friendly deal long before Evan Longoria makes it all the sweeter. Throw in Iannetta, and the excellent Dexter Fowler.

Pie in the sky? Probably. Detached from reality? Indeed. A package that includes, basically, the three best Rockie prospects is borderline insane. But so is trading Roy Halladay!! If Tulowitzki is a deal-breaker, replace the face of the franchise (before Halladay would assume the title) with Christian Friedrich. Admitting that Roy Halladay is going to be gone next year is hard enough, don't expect me to take it well.

If AA is going to do it (and many people think he will) he'd better land himself 3 major league ready players. At least. Distant prospects are fine and good, but the Blue Jays' boat will rock with such force that a fleet of kids will do more harm than good.

GROF Exclusive: Live Streaming Video of the Yankees Parade

Thanks to the new programming mandate at the Score, I have new access to videofeeds the world over! Enjoy the Yankees marching on Hyperbole Hill.

Housekeeping? What you keep in your house?

You've surely noticed and I hope you enjoy the new Ghostrunner on First banner, created by old friend Dennis of Amplified Communications. I'm appreciative of all his hard work and though we'll miss JP & Rocco, this is a much better direction. Interesting note about the graphic designer in question: he was once ejected from a baseball game for informing an umpire "you have no penis." After being ejected, Dennis insisted: "but sir, you have no penis!"

Because its Friday and the season is now, finally and sadly, over; I thought I'd do a quick look back at some of my favorite posts of the year. Not before I thank each and every person that's commented, read, linked, ignored, dismissed, or even thought of Ghostrunner on First over the past season. I hope you have as much fun as I do. 100 days to spring training!

• In April I predicted full scale bullpen breakdown. I wish I'd been wrong.
  
• Andrew Reilly's awesome guest piece from May when the Sox rolled in to face the best team in baseball (at the time.) Note his prediction of White Sox suckage.
  
• June was a good month. The Mancrush Allstars one week and the Albino Warlord the very next. My brain is solarpowered.
  
• After my first full-on loveletter to Brandon League, things kind of started going to shit in July. At least I was there to pile on! Maybe my favorite GROF post ever. Don't forget your nightmare fuel!
  
• The Jays traded Rolen and dumped Rios in August. I took it poorly. At least we had a lively semantic discussion on expanded playoffs
  
• In September the rosterbation began and won't abate until, well, ever.

Have a good weekend peoples. Rocco filed for free agency yesterday so hope still lives!!!

Medical School

It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say over the past few weeks I've come close to losing my religion. Closer than you think and closer than I'm ready to admit. The offseason lends itself to this kind of hyperbole and horseshit, but I've had enough. Mix in a mild existential criss and I'm ready to dive into something far removed from front office games. Instead I want to think about baseball.

One area of analysis that I believe will gain more and more importance is pitch sequencing. How to set up a hitter, how to let him get himself out. I looked at this topic in less detail at Walkoff Walk a couple weeks ago, only using the first two pitches to an entire order. I thought here I go a little more in-depth with probably the best pitcher I've seen at carving up hitters: Roy Halladay.

Halladay is an easy selection because his control is superb and he commands all his pitches so well, he is known for building a pitching plan, and because he makes such a pitiful example of so many hitters. Also, his Brooks Baseball page is sponsored by the awesomest site in the world.

After watching Alex Rodriquez tee-off on all manner of playoff pitching, I thought I'd examine how Roy Halladay goes about getting him out, something Halladay does well considering how great A-Rod is against everyone else. I don't know if that's credit to Halladay for holding down such an offensive force or A-Rod for managing a .788 OPS against our lord and savior. Gregg Zaun of Sportsnet did a great job showing how Rodriquez is so difficult to pitch against because he always tries to take the fastball the other way and turn on breaking stuff. Below I selected two games from late in the year. The first on September 4th was Halladay's one hit masterpiece at the Rogers Centre. The other is an outing from September 15th in which Halladay struggled (11 hits over 6 innings) but only surrendered two runs. Click to enlarge either chart.

1. Pop out: Cutter (whiff), cutter (ball), two seam (ball), four seam (in play)
   
2. Fly out: Four seam (in play)
   
3. Strike out: Two seam (foul), curve (ball), cutter (foul), four seam (called strike)
   
4. Fly out: Cutter (ball), cutter (in play)

This game was Halladay at his best as we all remember. This is impressive stuff. In to out, up to down. The first AB Halladay throws a cutter down and away that A-Rod can only hope to bloop into right field even if he hits it. Halladay then goes off the plate away with another cutter before coming back inside with a four seamer. The inside fastball keeps the batter thinking, especially knowing (as A-Rod surely does) how much Halladay likes to front door his cutter if you lean out over the plate. Rodriquez did well to take both these pitches and probably would like another shot at the 2-1 fastball over the plate. This are the kind of mistakes Halladay gets away with because of his ability to both cut and sink his fastball.

The second AB saw Rodriquez trying to jump on a fastball away only to fly out. The third at bat gives Alex his first look at the curveball. Halladay again starts out with a sinking fastball that Rodriquez fouls away, a pitch that likely started over the heart of the plate. Halladay shows Rodriquez the curve but just misses to even the count. The key 1-1 pitch is a tough cutter that A Rod can't take (again due to Halladay's mixed bag of fastballs, especially after the four seamer in nearly the same spot last AB) before Roy finishes him off with a fastball on the inside corner. Impressive stuff.

The final at bat sees Halladay miss with a cutter and get Rodriquez to fly out for the final time. Interesting that Halladay offered but one curveball all day to Alex Rodriquez. His fastball command seemed to take of it for him.

1. Fly out: Four seam (whiff), curve (in play)
   
2. Double: Four seam (ball), four seam (whiff), two seam (ball), four seam (whiff), four seam (in play)
   
3. Ground out: Two seam (ball), two seam (ball), curve (called strike), four seam (whiff), two seam (in play)

Halladay wasn't as sharp on this day but still limited Rodriquez to only a double. The first AB we see Halladay throw a fastball past Rodriquez before getting him to fly out on a nice curve down in the zone, definitely a pitcher's pitch.

Rodriquez notches a double during an at bat that featured only fastballs. Halladay falls behind and leaves a fastball over the plate where A Rod finally can get good wood it. I'm sure Halladay wanted that pitch a little further outside. Or inside. I dunno.

The third at bat is the only one I've detailed to end in a groundout. Halladay misses with two straight sinkers only to come back 2-0 with curve for a strike. That's fair. A fastball (which might actually be a cutter) that Rodriquez misses before a perfectly placed two-seamer finishes Alex off. A pitch he can't take as Halladay makes bank tailing that fastball over the outside corner. Beautiful.

So a couple questions: would you say Halladay has a specific plan in mind to retire Alex Rodriquez? He seems to rush out with fastballs to get ahead, generally on the outside part of the plate. He tends to come immediately back inside to keep Rodriquez honest and then works hard to keep him off-balance. My other question? Does anybody care about this other than me? Is this interesting to you? Would you like to see more? Let me know in the comments or by email.

Heat-Seeking Missiles. Bloodhounds. Foxes.

If, for some inexplicable reason, you mention "star-six-nine" to someone, you stand to get one of a couple distinct reactions. For people of a certain age&mdash born in the 90s or later&mdash you are likely to receive a quizzical look. People over 40 are likely to give you weathered version of the same look. The group of people who were teenagers or young adults in the early nineties likely used the crap out of *69, likely because they didn't pay the bills or have much else to do.

That doesn't mean any rational person remembers this telecommunications application with any fondness, it was like sexual discretion: you used it because you were young, dumb, and didn't have any other option.

Somehow, in spite of all rationale and reason, the same theory does not apply to Cito Gaston. No matter how far into the rearview mirror his triumph disappear, no matter how far out of touch with the modern player he seems to be, Cito sticks. In a power struggle between the members of the coaching staff held over from a previous regime and his band of cuddly codgers, Cito sticks.

The Blue Jays pitching staff is very young, this much we know. The Blue Jays pitching staff held Brad Arnsburg is high esteem, this much we know. Turning this young staff over to an inexperienced pitching coach seems like folly to me, but he is an in-house guy and known to the players.

It isn't that I want to see Cito fired or dismissed. It is the message it sends to the fans of this team. The hardcore fans, the long-suffering fans. The message is simple: you don't matter. Sending out a lameduck manager in a rebuilding year? Pointless. Why keep a manager in place when he isn't part of the plan?

What does a six month farewell to the game net Blue Jays fans and supporters? Nothing. How many times does Beeston plan to sheer this same sheep? If the results on the field don't match up, this is just another sad chapter in the Jays ever-growing history of selling us something we already own. Personally, I don't want to rehash the past any more. I can only assume season ticket holders feel the same way. Beeston seems intent on recapturing the public that made the Jays the number one show in town back in the heyday. Too bad it won't work. The face of Toronto is decidedly different, if you want to grow a business in Toronto in 2010, you're going to need to capture fans who either weren't born or possibly weren't even Canadians in 1992. They sure as shit don't care who Cito Gaston is. They, like everyone else, want to cheer and celebrate and party on Yonge Street celebrating something new and real, not old and repackaged.

By my count there are two managers making victory laps in 2010: Cito and Bobby Cox. That they both managed in the 1992 World Series and both used to manage the Blue Jays are where the similarities end. Cox has taken great teams to the World Series and taken crappy teams to the playoffs. He took a team that lost Nate McClouth&mdash and missed him!&mdash into the last week of the season with a shot at the wildcard. Cito can make no such claim. One man has been a constant for his team, leading them to countless playoff appearances and disappointments. The other left his first tenure from the team in a huff, didn't receive another chance in the big leagues (right or wrong) and returned to oversee three good months of baseball. One is owed a victory lap, the other not so much.

If, as the hopefully still employed Jeremy Sandler points out, it is a "shot across the bow" of disgruntled players; I can't think of a worse strategy. Alienate the players in a difficult recruiting market at the best of times while ceding power to an increasingly aloof manager with nothing to lose or gain? That sounds a lot like suicide to me.

Old Habits Die Hard

The Jays baseball operations brass sit around a sterile office deep inside Fortress Rogers. Tim Hortons cups are strewn across the bland table, a large board full of player names and positions holds a prominent role on the wall.

Tony LeCava: ...and the value of those two draft picks certainly offsets the on-field production of a 34 year old, based on these age-regression numbers. I say we let him walk.

Alex Anthopolous: Fuckin' eh? I don't know if I'm ready to walk away quite yet, the short stop market is a real gong show. Anybody got anything else, let's take our attention elsewheres, eh?

TLC: Hmmmm, I dunno. Not much going on before the series ends, you know?

AA: Shit guy, we must feed the Beest. Let's show him we haven't just been trading offices and parking spots. You got anything for me? Gimmie something and I'll buy you Burrito Boys.

TLC: Uhhh, shit. Uh, the Orioles left this lefty reliever unprotected. Sean Henn is his name.

AA: [shifts uncomfortably in his seat] I dunno, seems like simple roster filler.

TLC: That is precisely what he is. Wholly unremarkable. Pretty much passed over.

AA: [twitches] We....should....move....onnnn....

TLC: Are you okay? All the color is draining from your face.

AA: [sweating profusely] That's colour, jackass. Didn't you get the memo? Anyway........I think we should pass and establish our own itden-

[Alex Anthopolous appears to black out momentarily, his eyes glaze over and roll back in his head]

AA: [Bursts from his chair, vomits, and unleashes a blood-curdling scream] AAAAAIIIIIEEEE, just sign him! Bring him in!!! No Beeston jail can hold me! I NEED MORE LEFT HANDED RELIEVERS!!!!!

[Anthopolous passes out in his chair]

TLC: Fine whatever. I'm going to turf Barrett, you know? Oh like it matters. [Sighs deeply] Why won't Cashman return my calls? Wake up, I want a damn burrito.

We're Saved

Paul Beeston has been named the full-time President and CEO of the Toronto Blue Jays. Praise be unto the Beest.

Interesting tidbits about Paul Beeston: he spent the last year looking for a successor, which is why the Jays did nothing but shed salary under his stewardship. He righted the ticketing ship while interviewing candidates from all over North America and anointing the sores on the feet of Toronto's street urchins.

Beeston is most famous of lording over the Toronto Blue Jays during the glory years, deftly moving massive contracts around, hiring 3 month mercenaries and getting out while the getting was good.

Also interesting: any good we see on the field or in the offices over the next 2 years will be do to Beeston's benevolent hand. All bad decisions or negativity are due exclusively to JP's poisonous influence.

New GM Alex Anthopolous and Beeston look forward to many long nights at the office (IN TORONTO MOST IMPORTANTLY), expressing fondness for David Suzuki, laughing at Red Green, eating ketchup chips, and drinking Moosehead while popping Tylenol 222s for fun. Later they'll make some baseball decisions, but not before a rousing game of Sorry!

Pesky Hairs Refuse to Split

A good post at Batters Box got me thinking about the Jays continued failings in late innings, close games, or other such settings for inevitable heartbreak. The tenets of Blue Jays baseball under JP were clear, the bulk of which I agree with. Except one: the value of utility players.

The Jays seem to love guys they can plug into multiple positions with little or no notice. This does seem attractive and potentially valuable, but only to an extent. One thing you've seen here before is me pining for better use of all 25 roster spots. This is especially difficult under Cito, that doesn't mean it isn't important. The 2009 Jays weren't a great team, but at times they featured three guys (Johnny Mac, Joe Inglett, Jose Bautitsa) that could jump in and play any number of positions on the diamond. Not only does this give the team flexibility, it's a skill that comes cheaply. To make my point even more bluntly; the Jays keep these jacks of all trades around because they're cheap, not because they make winning games easier.

A popular thought making its way around the baseball world these days isn't all that new, its just expressed in modern terms. You'd rather have one 6 WAR player than two 3 WAR guys. That hold true at the ass-end of the bench, too. The Jays kept guys like Bautista, MacDonald, and Inglett (when healthy) around to perform a myriad of tasks at replacement level rather than employ one proper fourth outfielder. Sending Travis Snider in as a defensive replacement for Adam Lind is technically an upgrade, but going from "negligent" to "unfortunate" doesn't really help the team.

The Jays seem to lack specialists, guys that can come in and make the most of a late inning opportunity. There is something to be said for the team actually possessing the assets but if the manager is loath to use them&mdash inserting Overbay once the left-handed starter's gone or using Randy Ruiz in the reverse setting&mdash then there isn't much point.

Coming up with a list of names that will help fully flesh out a big league roster is easy (rosterbation - a victimless crime!) but getting them to fit into a real, live 25 man roster is not. The Jays seem to not have the same set of options that their divisional rivals have. Shit, a guy like Hinske would really help this team (power off the bench, corner outfield postions? FML).

I recognize these aren't the players that will make or break the Jays in 2010 or beyond. But meaningful contributions from bench and role players IS a key aspect of successful baseball teams. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays didn't make the World Series because Eric Hinske was on their team, but having a guy on their bench with specific skills and abilities helps a a lot more than a guy willing to run to any spot on the field. The Jays need production from guys (to go along with production from their marquee players, that is a given) like this if they hope to compete with teams that aren't forced to wring value out of every dollar spent.

Sporting News to Adam Lind: Try Being Older

The venerable Sporting News announced their American League All Star team amidst little fanfare or shits given. The former staple of North American sports fans' bathrooms and place I used to play fantasy sports quickly announced their irrelevance by naming Hideki Matsui as their all-AL Designated Hitter.

An understandable choice, considering Adam Lind merely bested Matsui in home runs, doubles, RBI, runs scored, plate appearances, intentional walks, average, on base, slugging, OPS, wOBA, batting average with RISP, OBI% (rate of runners on base driven in) runs above average, isolated power, leverage-neutral win probability, wins above replacement, VORP, and meters gaily skipped.

Matsui did best Lind in walks, walk rate, K/BB, hat size, porn collected above replacement, games missed due to injury, AARP contributions, bats stared at intently, goldfish tended, sandals worn, panties purchased from vending machines, and games played in front of Sporting News editors.

To be fair the good people of TSN, they DID elect Aaron Hill to the team for second base, which is awesome. Hill lead American League second sackers in a host of categories yet one could argue Hill is less deserving of inclusion than Adam Lind. So you win some and you lose some. Consider this a major win as it prevented weasel-faced ratman Dustin Pedroia from one more second of undeserved attention.

Navel Gazing Announcements and Self Pity

Just a couple things before I throw myself fully into back peddling mode. First, I'm no longer the Weekend Editor at Walkoff Walk. I've eased into the role of semi-regular contributor like an old man into a hot bath. I contributed during the week all year but my weekend output was spotty, but now you can find me posting something over there most days. My post today, in fact, was linked on the front page of SBnation.com. So there! Friend of GROF J from 3:10 to Joba is the new weekend guy, do check him and Walkoff Walk out. Especially if you like baseball, children dressed as animals and/or money, and metahumor.

Secondly, I participated in the Blogger Nine Innings series for the New York Daily News's "Touching Base" blog. It was fun. It may seem that I joked about kidnapping Evan Longoria and bringing him to Canada, but I was deadly serious. You get the stained rug, I'll get the getaway car and valid alibi.

New Yankee Workshop

Okay, so I made a somewhat rash statement about hating on the Yankees. It isn't that I like the Yankees but, over time, I've begun to "root" for the Yankees. Not the Yankees as much as The Better Team. I want The Better Team to win, all the time.

For as long as I've done this, I've beat the "Jays are a good team" drum. They get unlucky, they face long odds, blah blah, you know the song and you do the dance too. I've gone to some length to show appreciation for how good a team, on paper or in practice, I think the Jays built. I've only scratched the surface of rooting out their isolated or situational shortcomings that keep the Jays in third, or fourth, or generally out of shouting distance of playoff berths and Meaningful Baseball.

I see teams like the Twins and I see dumb luck. I see the benefit of circumstance. And I resent it.

I resent "shitty" teams get to play one game playoffs and division series and months of meaningful baseball that fills the building while the Jays, and we fans, don't. We don't get that. We get a concrete tomb made worse by the bizarre string of misfortune and bad timing that is all so far out of our control and our understanding that if fuels this wild resentment and hatred, not of the Yankees and Red Sox who spend money and run their organization free of fiscal and karmic restraint. I can't hate them for doing their job, I can only hate those that don't do their job as well but reap rewards.

I resent the scorn heaped upon the players and officials doomed to one of sports' most futile pursuits and the praise directed at those that couldn't do it at "the highest level", the place the Jays must conduct their business every day.

I want the Yankees or the best team to win because the Jays are (or have been) on of the best teams and they don't. I'm glad the Phillies made the World Series because they too are one of the Best Teams.

I know this runs against the original Davey V Goliath sports trope, but I'm a broken man. I don't want to become as bitter as the beat grunts who long only for a good story, good baseball and good management is a good enough story for me. And that is what I'd like to encourage in AA and the Blue Jays brass: good management. Have a plan and see it through. Make adjustments that don't leave you grasping for a new plan after the last one failed.

Again, I'm not rooting for the asteroid or anything like that, I just wish for just desserts. Maybe one day it will be our turn to eat.

Iron Age

It is only October 20th and yet the annual "offseason straw-grasp" is already in full swing in the blogosphere. New GM Alex Anthopolous's recent comments regarding the teams non-specific interest in resigning Marco Scutaro caused a few waves. Some considered them a waste of time, others thought they were a clear indication of AA's intent to to retain Scutaro.

I've said all along that I'm against resigning Scutaro. He did a terrific job; first as a utility guy then as the everyday shortstop. That J.P. acquired him for a song and paid him very little (just over $1.5 mil for 2009, less than Johnny Mac!) is very much icing on the cake. Scutaro did well to turn himself into a good leadoff man and an excellent fielding shortsto///////RECORD SCRATCH!!!!!!!!

Remember how we all raved over Scutaro's defense this year, how impressive he both looked and rated in the various metrics? A funny thing happened on the way to a silk glove: Marco Scutaro ran out of gas. Not only did Scutaro's offence go south as the season wore on, his defense did the very same.

Consider this post I wrote on August 5th. The content of the post doesn't look at Macro Scutaro's defensive runs: 16. Meaning his UZR on August 5th was 16.0 runs. Looking at his final season numbers we see a frightening total: 0.3 Over the final two months (6 weeks before his injury) Marco Scutaro played 16 runs below average.

Brian Joseph of Baseball Digest Daily compiled all defensive numbers for shortstops around the same time in August for his excellent Digging in the Dirt series. At that time Scutaro sported a UZR/150 of 7.0 (finished 0.1), a RZR of .825 (finished .799) with 48 out of zone plays (finished with 61) and so on and so forth.

I don't point this out to disparage Scutaro, more than anything I was shocked to see how far his defensive numbers fell. I also recognized this numbers aren't infallible, but they do represent a decline. A significant one, especially as it relates to signing an aging player to a multi-year contract. As each year passes, Scutaro will break down earlier and earlier. There is no guarantee he will ever rediscover his range or his legs as the innings mount.

One option, one I wouldn't oppose, is making Scutaro the everyday third baseman. Though his range declined, Scutaro remained incredibly sure-handed, making few errors on the balls he fielded (other than a few in high leverage situations) and fewer throwing errors. Offensively his skills are decidedly "old player" meaning Cito could slot him in at the top of the order and expect pretty similar production (just not EVERY day Cito, give the man a rest.

Would Scutaro agree to be the third baseman if other offers to play short every day exist? I don't know, though the lure of natural grass is just about enough to get anyone out of town. Hopefully the Jays recognize how "profit" they've already made off Scutaro and don't flush it all down the toilet on an aging player during his decline phase.