Let the Right One In

Seems like every vein of the vast Blue Jays deposits have been stripmined by writers and bloggers alike. First we had Brett Cecil Day and recently we all lined up for the Million Mills March. Johnny Mac, Matt Clement, Aaron Hill, Scott Rolen, and of course Vernon Wells have spit quotes and positivity for the coming year.

Somewhat frighteningly, aside from the occasional slip of chauvinism, we haven't heard much about Alex Rios. How can that be? Is there another player who's output controls the entire team's fortunes more directly? Which Alex Rios will we get?

For each of the past three season, Alex Rios has been two different players. Strong first half is interrupted by full blown itis leading to a weak second half. Strong first half gives way to home run derbyitis and a weak second half. Middling first half before an infusion of Citocity leading to a strong finish to the season. What gives?

Alex Rios is nothing if not frustrating, and we've all watched him throw at bats away. Last year Professor Hale uncovered some troubling posture issues that may have interfered with his power stroke. I've decided to go full nerd and examine his contact rate and out of zone swing numbers. Exciting stuff, I know.

Thanks to Fangraphs, I can look at Rios's monthly plate discipline splits. I decided to compare his monthly contract rate, starting with April 2006 with his monthly OPS splits over the same time frame. His OPS remains pretty steady over his career, with some huge months and a few real dogs mixed in. Mind my terrible Excel skills, but here we go:


The pink dot represents his career marks, with the one outlier being July 2006, a month in which he made only 14 plate appearances. What does this mean? Shockingly enough, the more Alex puts the bat on the ball, the better he does! How's your mind? Mine is pretty fucking blown right now. The R squared number indicates the relationship between contact rate and OPS in this instance. 61% of OPS is contact rate? Not likely. These sample sizes are pretty small and I have no fucking clue what I'm doing.

My next thought was "what will make his contract rate go up, since that is obviously the desired outcome?" Walp, let's so how Alex stacks up. Is swinging at out of the zone junk bad for his health?


This relationship is much weaker, but definitely shows a connection between swing at crap and putting the ball into play. July 2006 is off the reservation once again, were I credible in any way I'd have discounted it long ago. The Pink Dot again represents his career numbers; not to mention a tremendous scene in my favorite movie of all time.

So what can we expect from not-so-young Alex in 2009? Hopefully a disciplined yet aggressive approach. Both he and Vernon are free swingers, but need to ensure they're swinging at strikes to maximize their talents. I'm new to this "graphing and trying to figure shit out" business, so if any smart people have any feedback or if you'd like to see the raw numbers I stole, please help me out in the comments.

Reconsidering Lind

It wasn't even that long ago that I referred to Adam Lind's 2010 as a "season-long slump." While his numbers are disheartening when you take a broad look, looking at his season in chunks we see much more promising results. Promising in a bad way, perhaps. But at least we'd have a better idea of what Lind represents.

There is no disputing Lind's final 2010 line: .237/.287/.425. Good for a .712 OPS and a .302 wOBA. Down 100 points from the year prior. Of course, Lind did manage 58 extra bases hits but that is about it. But together we can make something of this. Let's grab hold of a passing arbitrary end point (the All Star break) and watch things improve drastically!

From the break to season's end, Adam Lind posts a downright respectable .267/.309/.498/.807 line. Include the entire month of July and you get and extra 20 points of OPS. Not catastrophic by any stretch of the imagination.

Despite the heroics of 2009 and the extensive minor league track record; by True Talent Adam Lind is probably a .830~ OPS guy. Combining Lind's good year and off-year you get a two year average of .825. A season-long number like that puts Lind in the top half for designated hitters in the, um, American League.

So case closed, right? Lind is a good not great hitter without a real position. Not so fast. As I've written before, I believe Adam Lind's all-fields approach and power the opposite way makes him a legit power threat in the American league. I went as far as declaring him slump-proof!

Looking at the previous few 'grafs, you can safely assume Adam Lind slumped at some point during 2010. How about a two month stretch, 200 plate appearances almost exactly, in which Adam Lind put forth one of the worst stretches in recent memory.

On May 1st, Adam Lind strode to the plate sporting his now-traditional .360ish wOBA and .200ish isolated power. 4 home runs to his name, he was in the groove. Fast forward two months; Adam Lind wakes up on Canada Day realizing he his slash line since that fateful May Day of .166/.219/.276! A .495 OPS over 200 at bats. How could this happen?

That's what I'm attempting to find out. What happened to Lind over this span that he can hopefully avoid. A 200 plate appearance sample isn't sufficient in writing off a 27 year old with 80 home runs in fewer than 500 games.

Let's get nerdy and see if we can't pinpoint Lind's spring struggles. First, a plot of all the pitches he faced in May/June. Fans of pitching inside, take cover!



When new manager John Farrell hosted his first press conference, he noted the Red Sox "had a pretty good idea" how to get Adam Lind out. Despite the oppo heroics of 2009, it sure looks like pounding the outside corner is the key to retiring Lind. Or does it. Consider below, comparing Lind's pitches by position during his nasty slump compared to his season on the whole.



Interesting. Lind actually saw fewer pitches on the outside third of the plate during his struggles. The next logical assumption (which may not be logical in any way) is Lind got a little pull happy.

Looking at the batted ball data (as best I can for this time period), Lind sprayed the ball evenly around the outfield but hit lots of balls on the ground to the left side of the infield. Did Lind run afoul of the teachings of Citocity? Trying to do too little with pitches thrown in the middle plate, going the opposite way with nearly every pitch he saw?

At this point, I'm going a long way to say Adam Lind had two crappy months and isn't nearly as awful as he showed in 2010. Lind experienced some criminally bad luck in June both by average on balls in play and home run per fly ball.

As I stated earlier, "future Adam Lind" is a lot more likely to put up strong (but not spectacular) numbers in the .850 OPS/.360 wOBA neighbourhood. The .390 wOBA we saw a year ago is what the kids call "a career year." It happens.

That doesn't mean getting him all the ABs he can handle and all the reps at first base he can stomach isn't Job 1 for 2011. If he struggles through another 200 at bat megaslump, giving the appearance of going out of his way to help pitchers get him out, only then might it be time to re-evaluate.

Lind's team-friendly, option-heavy deal provides the front office enough rope to bide their time and fairly assess if Lind is the right fit for the Jays and the eventual playoff push. If a cheaper or better option presents itself, so be it. Players with Lind's type of pop don't fall out of trees, but they're hardly endangered species either.

AP Image courtesy of Daylife. Pitch F/X data from the ever gracious Joe Lefkotwitz, splits courtesy of Fangraphs.

The Power of Spite

You're Travis Snider. You're the Franchise. You're the Great Big Pasty White Hope. You're back in the big leagues after a few months of destroying AAA pitching. You hit a home run in your first at bat. How do you keep it going? How do you maintain momentum? Hate.

While most media members describe Snider as level-headed, or a kid with a good head on his shoulders, or a kid with his head on straight, or a 21 year old kid that doesn't have to promise to call you back to get head; there's a little simmering anger under the Snidey-surface. Reports of Snider resenting the treatment at the hands of our Black Dad bubbled, with Snider slightly distancing himself from the hitting guru. Snider didn't like being demoted, but who would? Snider overcame incredible hardships in his young life, now is the time to bottle those feelings and unleash them in a terrible way.

Never underestimate the power of high-level athletes driven to acts of madness by seemingly innocent comments or events. These are, by and large, bizarre humans with odd self-pushing buttons who draw motivation from the strangest of places. Let this be Travis Snider's motivation: prove Cito wrong.

About what? Who cares. Go out there with "fuck you" on your mind every single time and you can't lose. Already an intense dude, Snider can focus his hatred of Citocity into an energy beam of pure opposite field destruction. Travis Snider will seek and destroy all that spout the "don't believe anything you see in April or September" adage.

Snider's homer yesterday was indeed a thing of beauty, one that made a heartbreaking game much easier to swallow. Snider playing everyday should serve as reason enough to watch the rest of the season, though the thought of him growing into some sort of dark anti-hero is one I don't feel guilty about. Count down the moments until your free agency Travis, one "Fuck You!" at a time.

The Most Well-Earned Off Day in History

In a time of such insanity, when making sense of the senseless no longer seems possible, now is the time for true positivity. The three game series against the Red Sox has the potential to galvanize the Jays like no other. What better way to regroup after the worst road trip in club history than a relatively full house against the dreaded Sox?

A few quick facts that may indicate the worst is over:

• Aaron Hill's home run yesterday was the first in 8 games. EIGHT!
  
• It was also the only positive thing done by a Blue Jay in a high leverage situation for two weeks. They've been terribly un-clutch during this streak, but surprisingly not too far off their regular amount of unclutchedness.
  
• The bullpen finally regressed. At least we can stop holding our breath!
  
• Lyle Overbay's hitting well. That's something!
  
• So desperate is Cito that he almost, kinda, sorta, juggled the lineup. Signs of life!
  
• As Stoeten points out; the Jays lost 3 one run games and two games that were essentailly one run games. A tiny amount of luck and we're talking about a bad road trip, not a cataclysmic one.
  
• They played a bunch of these games in the rain. The dome has a roof! Advantage: nullified.
  
• The starting pitching's been phenomenal. Honestly. The relief pitching, while sort of terrible, deserves a better fate. The strand rate will come up, the BABIP will go down, the ERA-FIP differential will get Rolen'd up real good.

Wilner's right. This is rock bottom. Cito's world-renowned manmanagment will come shining through. The Jays--imbued by the confidence of Citocity--will band together and shoot forth into June. That's just what happens now.

Cruel to be Kind

This isn't going to be a normal baseball season. Look no further than the next sentence (fragment, I'm a hack after all) you read: leave Cito alone.

This season, as we've all said in various round tables or comment sections or social media outlets, isn't about wins and losses. It's about growth and development and kittens & puppies frolicking together on clouds fluffier and whiter than Brett Wallace's thighs. As such, sweating the minutia of Citocity isn't worth the effort.

The games are ultimately trivial and The Zombie Cito wasn't reanimated overnight. Guys are going to get their chance to hit and odd match-ups in the name of teambuilding are likely S.O.P. all year long. We all want to see Randy Ruiz get many more at bats than he will, but I'd rather see him get real PAs with real prep, not tossed off pinch hits in high leverage situations.

"Lose one to win two later" has a whole new meaning in 2010; those two wins are on indefinite layaway; don't expect Clarence to collect during his victory lap. Let Cito build their confidence or free agency cases or whatever a player's manager is supposed to do.

One Game Closer Controversy

Nice to see far too many people who know far better all set to hang Jason Frasor after one "bad" outing. He isn't good under pressure? Funny, as Baseball Reference and I see it, Jason Frasor struck out 21 while walking only 6 in high leverage situations last year. He held batters to a .620 OPS in giving up 1 home run and 1 double. What a bum.

The fifteen-hop infield single, the sliced/blooped seeing eye double, the intentional walk to one of baseball's least successful batters; those things are not controlled by the pitcher. He's fine. He's better than fine, he's a damn good reliever with a stellar track record and decent potential trade value. He'll throw the ball just like a dozen more times and record 12 saves. Relax.

Lind Deal Late Pass

Good for both parties. Let's remember something about Adam Lind, something less than comfortable. Adam Lind is a less patient, less powerful version of Adam Dunn. He's a DH who may have already put up his career season.

Those aren't slights on Lind, they're reasonable facsimiles of the truth. He's a great hitter and the team options make the deals convenient, but I don't believe for a second that the Jays somehow picked Adam Lind's pocket.

Speaking of picking pockets and/or cherries, how long until this creeping feeling the Jays gave up on Alex Rios too early goes away?

You Knew This Was Coming

Ahhhhhhhh Zaun. It had to be Zaun? This might be the problem with one trick ponies like Brandon League. A wily vet who happened to catch him over four seasons isn't going to be fooled. If you bisect the plate with a fastball he knows is coming, you're in trouble.



The blue dots are League fastballs, the red his splitter. The Xs are Zobrist's single and Pena's double. Fuck breakfast.

So what happened? How could he be so bad so soon after being so good? Location and getting ahead is one. Recall his Yankee outing, how everything was down in the zone? Sunday, not so much. Throwing strikes? That always helps. Against the Yankees, League started batters off like this:

1. Fastball called strike.
   
2. Fastball grounded to center for hit.
   
3. Fastball flown to centerfield.
   
4. Splitter high and wide, ball. ( runner is subsequently picked off by Raul Chavez's "works once in a liftime" snap throw)
   
5. Splitter flown to right field.
   
6. Fastball called strike.
   
7. Fastball called strike.
   
8. Splitter low and inside, ball.
   
9. Fastball grounded to second for out.
   
10. Fastball inside, ball.

So he threw the fastball for strikes or for converted outs while throwing the splitter outside the zone. Seemed to work. Against the Rays League went fastball fouled off, splitter swung and missed, fastball off the plate away, intentional walk (playing with fire!), splitter low and away, fastball low, and finally a fuck you fastball to BJ Upton's back. In the only two at bats that really hurt him (Pena and Zaun) he got behind 2-1 and couldn't recover. He did have Zaun 3-2, but served him up an old man gopher ball. So is that it? Perhaps not.


This image shows the speed of League's pitches graphed against their vertical movement. The blue dots are Sunday's Rays outing, red is the dominant outing against the Yankees. First thing you'll notice: the gas. League fired with reckless abandon against the Yanks, averaging 96.4 mph on his fastball. During Sunday's catastrofuck League checked in around 94.4 mph. According to Fangraphs, 95.3 is his average fastball this season, a number I'll trust as I believe Fangraphs uses the same data I steal. Also, League's fastball averaged 95.25 on Saturday night in Tampa and 95.45 in New York in July, so it isn't necessarily a difference between two parks/guns. So for Brandon League; speed is something but not everything.

One problem that League may experience from time to time is the flattening of his fastball. Again from Fangraphs, we see League's average amount of "rise" this season is 3.4 inches. Sunday he checked in at a much flatter and bangable 4.5 inches. Against the Yankees? Closer to 1.75 inches of "rise" or much more sink. More sink on his fastball is a good thing, as it already sinks more than the law allows. Less sink is just a high speed batting practice delivery, especially when you're his old catcher and you're looking fastball in.

I can't even pretend to explain why his splitter seems straighter, flatter, yet faster and more effective in that now quasi-famous outing against the Yankees, it was just one of those days when everything works. My hopes were sky high for Brandon League to emerge as a revelation during this dreary second half, and despite my excuse-making he seems to ALWAYS end up giving up the biggest of big hits. Relief pitchers who dominate meaningless appearances but struggle when it counts have a very limited shelf-life, and I wonder how long the love affair with Potential will last. He's obviously a gifted athlete and a pitcher with unique skills, but in that situation you simply can't make a poor pitch, one Gregg Zaun (!) can bang out of the park, and expect to keep your job forever.

I feel dirty insinuating such awful things about Brandon League, but I don't know how many more chances the team will give him. If Arnsberg's voodoo doesn't work on him and the Zen of Citocity doesn't work on him, what's left to try?

Uncle

It isn't to say that I am against Jose Bautista, I simply approached both his hot September and incredible start to 2010 with extreme cynicism. Cynicism borne of 4 years worth of struggles and a dash of evidence to suggest what he did wasn't "special." I refused to get caught up in BAS-fever — not because of a selfish need to be right or a personal vendetta against the bearded wonder — but simply because it only made sense that his success was unsustainable.

Whelp, we're 100 games, 400 plate appearances and 28 home runs in at this point. Guess what? He's good. Be it a change in approach or whatever, Jose Bautista is a bona fide stud. Throw in his hilariously awesome arm (while ignoring his wholly average all-around play in the outfield) and you have a nice player.

At this point in the season, many of the "sample size!!1!" cries are quieting down. Over 400 plate appearances, it is safe to say much of what we're seeing is a legit reflection of his current skills and abilities. Which isn't to say he'll carry these rates forward into infinity - career years are career years. Using the incredibly valuable research of a guy named Pizza Cutter, we can look at certain rate and component stats and examine Jose's season for what it is: outstanding.

From the "When Samples Become Reliable Post" we know the following:

50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
------------------------------------
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

Considering Jose Bautista has 405 plate appearances this year, let's examine his current rates against his career marks.

Swing% - 41.3% (40.5% career)
Contact - 80.5 % (79.8% career)
Strikeout Rate - 21.7% (24.2% career)
Line Drive - 15.5% (15.3% career)
Pitchers per Plate Appearance - 4.11 (4.13 career)
Walk Rate - 13.3% (11.3% career)
Groundball Rate - 31.0 % (40.1% career)
GB/FB - 0.58 (0.90 career)
Flyball Rate - 53.4% (44.7% career)
Home Run per Fly Ball - 18.9% (12.1% career)

Gee, what sticks out to you? The batted ball data is slightly crazy in terms of its break from the norm. It does suggest a change in approach, the Citocity Way blasting through like a bull in a hanging slider shop. The increase in fly balls not only fuels the precipitous falloff in BABIP but figures to keep it suppressed as well. The walk rate? Exceptional, I can't say I'm anything but impressed.

Again I will offer the warning: this does not suggest Jose Bautista will continue this next year and into the free-agent future. It just means that what we see above "isn't a fluke" in the random fluctuations sense of the word. Are they "fluky" as in unrepeatable? Will holes in his swing grow in time? What if, just like teammate Aaron Hill, the balls start falling in front of the warning track rather than just beyond it?

Even with a good-sized arbitration raise, it is worth the Jays time to roll the dice for next year and figure out what the 2011 version of Bautista looks like. Should he keep walking and clouting and making crazy contact, it wouldn't be too surprising. If he puts together a strong first half, either trade suitors or Type B designation (fingers crossed) awaits.

Reuters photo via Daylife, data via Fangraphs and Baseball Reference

Cured

Image courtesy of Relentless Jordan Bastian

It didn't take much, a little Alan & Jerry on the radio during my drive to work the other day and my raging spring boner blasted through my pants into the stratosphere. Malaise? Gone. Fog? Lifted. Clarencephobia? Intensified.

It wasn't anything that The Manager did on the weekend that got me riled up, that doesn't take much. At this point I think most of us default to an anti-Clarence mode, only toggling into pleasant surprise should he remove his feet from his mouth for a few minutes at a time. It was more what he didn't do or didn't say. I know it is early and spring results are anything but reliable, but I'll echo Mikey Wilner's sentiments on the Fan this morning: what does Randy Ruiz have to do to secure a job?

All he does is hit, as Big Daddy Bastian points out in his recent blog post on the slugging huskyman. (Note: Bonus points for the blurb on Ruiz touching nearly all the spring bases. BEST SHAPE OF HIS LIFE mixed with FRESH OUTLOOK with a side of OVERCOMING TREMENDOUS ODDS. The spring hat trick!)

Considering his total contribution &mdash assuming below-average defense &mdash stands (or projects, depending on your belief system) to outweigh Bautista's total contribution since Ruiz's looks like a better hitter and Bautista's defense just isn't that good. The questionable status of Edwin Encarnacion's wrist might prove this point moot, as Bautista will step in to play the hot corner leaving Adam Lind, Randy Ruiz, and Travis Snider one of Cito's pets to fight over the corner outfielder and DH spots.

Twitter neophyte Morgan Campbell offers an interesting look into Jose Bautista's path the big leagues in today's Star, but one thing that stands out is some insight into the change in his approach that resulted in an offensive explosion during the dog days.

Bautista went to the plate with a pitch in mind, attacking when he saw it and laying off everything else. He would also cock his hands and shift his body weight to his back leg sooner, allowing him to uncoil more quickly when the pitch he wanted came.

Interesting stuff. Sounds like Citocity 101: wait for the fastball and crush it! Sounds simple, and as I discovered in December, works when you're getting said fastballs served to you by replacement level arms. Let's see how this approach works when the pitcher can locate his fastball, or doesn't need to throw it for strikes.

Call me stubborn if you will, but I simply don't believe in Jose Bautista. Perhaps I'm swayed by his unique underdog/drug abuser saga, but the conclusions I drew in December are too powerful to ignore just yet. Not to mention how much cheaper he is, which could make him a worthy trade chip if that's your bag. Spring results notwithstanding, Randy Ruiz seems like the kind of player you need to make room for. Hopefully The Manager gets the go-ahead to do so.

Lind Stricken with Virulent Anti-Citocity Fever

It's Friday and that's a good thing. The season is drawing to a close so the time for reflection and analysis is almost upon us. I hope to delve deeper into this issue more this winter, but for now I'll settle for a little theft.

Like most things you read here, I took this idea from the amazing Baseball Analysts. Yesterday Jeremy Greenhouse created spray charts and contrasted them from year to year. So simple yet so effective.

I took it upon myself to look at Adam Lind, a player I praised and believed slump-proof thanks to his ability to hit to all fields with power. Turns out he stopped doing that and promptly dove into a season-long slump! Read it and weep:



You'll notice the blue ellipse I added for effect. A total lack of hits to the left field power alley, a drastic reduction in opposite field home runs. Maybe teams got smarter by shading him to that alley, though he isn't even really making outs in those spots.

All in all, a thoroughly disappointing year for Lind, one I'm sure he can't wait to end. Expect a closer look during the long winter years, this will have to suffice as your nightmare fuel for the day.

Spray charts courtesy of Texas Leaguers, an amazing resource. Read Baseball Analysts every day.

Say What You Like About the Tenets of Citocity, At Least it's An Ethos

or How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love the Bomb.

Last night's three solo home run outburst cinched it. The 2010 Blue Jays are a one trick pony who are going to have a hard time staying out of their own way. But you know what? That's okay.

I used to write a lot about style on this page, even though style and baseball are slightly dissonant ideas. This 2010 Blue Jays team, it has style. It's brash and obnoxious and its own worst enemy, but damn if it isn't fun to watch. The numbers are clear - this cannot sustain a ballclub over 162 games. But who cares?

"Plan your work, work your plan" an oft-repeated cliche. Clarence hardly planned this, claiming in a doddering moment this spring that the team would create offense and move runners around and all that good shit. This ran in direct opposition to a later (truer) claim that a bunch of guys could possibly knock a truckful of dingers.

The cruelest irony of the Jays free swinging ways, the greatest victim in the great paradigm shift of 2010: Aaron Hill.

So often chided for being a free-swinger, Bizarro Hill is now the most patient hitter on the team. The worst hitter, but the most patient. After we all wailed about his inability to talk a walk, he's now seeing next to nothing in the strike zone. The result? Sky-high walk totals and rock bottom line drive rates.

I wonder what this says about our desire to stretch players across all five tools? Did Aaron Hill hear the whispers of his impatience and change his entire approach? Is he now pressing; mad worse by the dearth of quality pitches he's offered to hit? It is a troubling time for Aaron Hill, for the most part. He is the streakiest man alive, so we have that to hang onto.

But these 2010 Jays, they are throw-your-hands-in-the-air-in-disbelief awesome. Bang-your-head-off-a-table-in-anger awesome. This-can't-possibly-work awesome. They are the bad movie you quickly realize is one of your all-time favorites. They are a bad team playing well. They are ours.

Drag the Lake

"I take a lot of responsibility for what's going on," Wells said. "It's frustrating for everyone. When things are going poorly, guys want to do too much to get everybody out of what we're going through. It's just a matter of taking a deep breath and getting back to our approaches."

About those approaches...is the Citocity wearing off?

Vernon Wells, the much maligned star of Sunday's loss, has exactly zero hits to the opposite field this year. Zero. Nil. On balls hit up the middle, his OPS is .533. That is some extreme shit.

Consider Aaron Hill, team leader in OPS. When the ball goes up the middle, his OPS is .884. He has 36 hits in that direction. Lyle Overbay is second on the team in overall OPS thanks to his .977 mark up the middle. Alex Rios's up the middle/opposite field OPS are .590/.636. Maybe Rios & Wells could try something other than dead pull. Just try.

Daylife for the picture and Bastian for the quote

Abdicate the Throne

Foolish as it is to completely write-off Jason Frasor, we have to believe something is up. He's missing a couple ticks off his fastball and leaning on his foshy thing more than ever. He isn't missing bats and it looks like he isn't nibbling as a dignified king should. More than anything, finally, he's getting hit hard. Lots of line drives and far too many base runners. It isn't fun to watch (he grinds the proceedings to a halt faster than an impromptu marching band-version of Twist and Shout) and hopefully it won't continue.

The scuttletweet skews towards injured, the reactionary conjecture almost laughable at this time. Worth noting is Frasor's sky high early season BABIP of .467, a number sure to make any BP tosser proud. Hopefully somebody within Castle Ted can set Frasor right; as one of the longest-serving Jays, fans should fight the urge to toss him aside so quickly.

Not to parrot Wilner too closely, but assuming Jason Frasor and/or Scott Downs are now officially useless is plain crazytalk. They obviously aren't firing on all cylinders, and perhaps 5+ years of warming up and high-leverage stress and strain are starting to show, but it doesn't all come apart at once like this. The ground balls will return, the walks will dissipate, these two bullpen stalwarts will ride off into the distance at the end of the year knowing they pitched really well as members of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Brett Cecil - Bat Missing Fool

Man, Brett Cecil is pretty awesome. He'll battle the long ball forever since he isn't really overpowering, but he pitched his ass off on Saturday night. 11 big whiffs (8 ks) in less than 7 innings of work is a welcome change to the guy with spotty control in 2009.

The Jays starters — Brandon Morrow excepted — continue to throw strikes at very impressive rates, walking only 2.75 hitters per 9. If this is the legacy of Bruce Walton, he'll be a rich, rich man in a very short period of time.

Interesting to hear Cecil interviewed on Wilner's pregame show*, discussing his new change, a discovery from his thumb-slicing incident in the spring. Cecil marveled at the effectiveness of the pitch when thrown at full power, rather than making a conscious effort to heave it at 80% effectiveness. Call me crazy, but that just makes sense. The grip on the ball should slow it down as much as you'd need, shouldn't it? Anyway, Cecil reiterated what everybody should know by now: the change up is the best pitch in baseball right now. Throw one or suffer the consequences.

* - I use the word interesting here very, very liberally. Cecil dropped enough "yuh knows" in the 2 minute interview to make me think I'd suddenly turned to HockeyCentral. He did mention he was a big Caps fan, so he's not perfect.

Have All the Donuts in the World!

So Lyle Overbay finally got a day off, after putting together his best offensive day of the season. I'm willing to believe almost anything about The Manager, but accusing him of punishing Overbay for complaining about his playing time last year seems a little extreme. Not beyond the realm of possibility, mind you, but far enough out there that I won't give it too much thought.

One would hope a man who prides himself on treating players the way he wished to be treated wouldn't stoop so low as to allow petty grudges into his professional decision making. Then again, there must be SOME explanation for the ongoing Citocity.

O Cito Why Cito?

It is amazing how quickly my mood and feelings toward our Black Dad can change. This morning, having dropped the Barber's Apprentice off at her jail for babies daycare facility, I pointed the BarberBus towards Soulsuckers Inc. for another day of drudgery. Just before I turned on some soothing commuter ballads, I heard tale of Cito appearing next as the Fan Morning Show's baseball insider. Cito! I figured I'd give the old guy a chance and hear what he had to say about nothing in particular.

Cito began blathering away, answering Gordo's softballs with aplomb. My mind turned to a minor project I kicked around but didn't follow through on: a fake Cito Twitter account. I realize fake Twitters are PLAYED OUT, but the real reason this fake Cito thing went nowhere was I didn't have the heart to do it. I don't want to be mean to Cito. I have just as many strong feelings and affections towards Cito as anyone, I simply cannot support him in his current role.

The segment progressed and my animosity towards Cito faded quickly. I found myself putting together a post &mdash not unlike the first two paragraphs of this one &mdash in my head, confessing to transgressions against Citocity and the greater Blue Jays good. At the same time, I LoLed to myself at the thought of a question about Brad Arnsberg. Then, out of the fucking blue, Don Fucking Landry busts out a question about Brian Butterfield! Donny I could kiss you! Give Cito the chance clear the air about divisions/dissension within his coaching staff and make good with a very popular coach. Except Cito did not do that. In addition to forgetting what city he was in yesterday, Cito opted to let his bitter old bastardom air for all to hear.

Here's a link to the audio and I'll transcribe Cito's answer to Landry's question. In a nutshell; Don asked if Cito thought Butterfield could be a manager in the big leagues one day. Cito offered this bon mot:

Well you know, it's hard for me to say. Butterfield did a good job for us as the bench coach and third base coach, but who knows? There's a lot of guys don't play in the big leagues cuz they can't handle the pressure, just like there's a lot of guys that can't manage in the big leagues because they can't handle the pressure. We'll have to see what Butterfield is like under pressure.

Holy fucking shit. A quick BR search reveals Brian Butterfield did not, in fact, play in the big leagues. Which seems to eliminate him from contention to ever manage in the majors because "he didn't play the game." Seriously Cito? Was it really that hard to say one single postive thing about Brian Butterfield and all he's done for this team? Were you and Geno Goddamn Tenacci out there making Marco Scutaro rich and netting Orlando Hudson and Aaron Hill boatloads of accolades?

It was really disappointing to hear Cito not quite disparage Butter but hint at a unspoken level of disapproval. Butterfield's father worked as a suit in the Yankee organization, the same team BB spent most of his minor league career with. No doubt the calls of nepotism followed him at every step, probably with good reason. But how sad is it that some 30 years later he could still be dealing with the same type of derision?

The entire segment left a bitter taste in my mouth and somehow tarnished my image of The Manager even further. Cito's reputation as a petty grudge-holder is now, more than ever, cemented in my mind. Congratulations to The Manager for proving himself to be inept and disappointing off the field too.

Image courtesy of your Toronto Star.

Introducing the ISO Challenge

There is a lot of talk about the new dimensions of the Blue Jays offense. I, for one, don't really buy it. The 2010 Jays clubbed baseballs like they were baby seals, outpacing the rest of the league in ISO by nearly 10%.

Going through the offensive projections over the past few weeks then reading the Tao's post yesterday (same guy!) I came to the realization this year's edition might be different.

Consider the projections I posted for Yunel Escobar and Rajai Davis - two players who figure to get into the lineup every day (top or bottom, does it really matter?) Both Davis & Escobar figure to post isolated power numbers right around the .100 mark. When league average is around .160, these two are staring Punch and/or Judy status right in the face.

The question I pose to you is this: which, if either, of these players will crack triple digits with the ISO? Both? Neither? The falling offensive stone that is Yescobar! or the bag-swiping urban-Ichiro Rajai Davis?

Based on his track record, Escobar seems like the safe bet. The man hit 14 home runs in 2009, though his ISO still lagged behind league average. A full season in the right handed cuddle-blanket that is the Rogers Centre should help, though his ISO as a Blue Jay was a paltry .081! His obsession with bunting runners over certainly won't help his cause.

Rajai Davis doesn't bunt quite as much as Escobar but he doesn't hit for power at all. Davis is yet to post a single-season slugging percentage above league average. He has but 12 career home runs! The one thing that might save Davis and put him over the triple digit threshold? His new ballpark.

Boon at power hitters as it might be, the Rogers Centre — by virtue of its very high fences and slow turf — is a triples haven. Though the rate at which Jays hitters leg out three baggers slowed in the past two years, it is still an above average place to see the "most exciting play in baseball."

So what do you think? Will some residual Citocity rub off on these two Marys or will one drink from the chalice of manliness? Cast your vote below!

Who will post an ISO > .100 in 2011?

Odds, Ends, and Ugliness

A couple ominous notes and things I gleaned from the last few games. Spoiler Alert: I just dusted off the "we're fucked" tag. Look at the pretty picture before digging in the dirt. (Via the essential Go Jays Go)

The 2009/2010 Blue Jays are not/will not be good defensive teams.

Trading away Alex Rios and Scott Rolen will do that to anybody, but replacing them with Travis Snider (after a few weeks of infielder Joe Inglett in right) and Edwin Encarnacion makes this a bad defensive team. There is a lot of debate surrounding the validity and/or value of defensive metrics, so I'll cut through the shit and get to a difficult number to argue: defensive efficiency &mdash how well a team converts balls in play into outs.

From Baseball Prospectus, here are the Jays rankings in all of baseball since 2004.

• 2004 &mdash 6th
  
• 2005 &mdash 2nd
  
• 2006 &mdash 10th
  
• 2007 &mdash 7th
  
• 2008 &mdash 7th
  
• 2009 &mdash 24th

Ouch. I'm sure I don't need to impress upon anyone the value of converting balls in play into outs, especially with a young staff taught (forced?) to induce ground balls at the expense of their virgin tendons. If you're a disciple of Fangraphs, you already know UZR is no saving grace here either, establishing the 2009 Jays team defense a value of 15.4 runs below average. Bill James and John Dewan, only you can save us now!

I can't see how it will improve either. Losing Scutaro (as I expect they will) only drives this number down further. The three centerfielder outfield of Johnson Wells Rios from years gone by has given way to the three leftfielder outfield of Lind Wells Snider. 2009 seems to be a down year for Hill defensively, though his past performance indicates he can surely pick it back up. Even if the Jays DFA Encarnacion they're looking at nada internally or signing some sort of free agent and moving someone (Hill, as Wilner suggests) to the hot corner.

The umps didn't help matters the last two nights, but in no way are the Jays blameless. If Aaron Hill makes a routine throw; there is no blown call begetting a botched steal attempt begetting another blown call. Botched run downs, misplayed fly balls, they all add up. The only course of action to save the defence, nay the team, is acquiring J.J. Hardy and Carl Crawford. Another topic for another day, though.

Randy Ruiz &mdash One True Outcome

Hey guys, did you hear Randy Ruiz has a hit in every game he's played? Yeah, three home runs, too. He's playing for a job ya know. He's also playing with rabbit's feet dipped in barely legal cleavage sweat - his luck will soon run out. He's a nice story and certainly "doesn't get cheated", but his home run per fly ball rate is 60%! His walk to strike out ratio is 1:9. In his short time with the big club, he's profiled as a "free swinger." How free? Nearly 60% of pitches outside the zone, more than 2/3 of the total pitches he sees. He makes less contact than any other Blue Jay. In short, this won't last. Fun as it is, if word can even be bothered to get out on him, I'll have a better chance of getting within the court-order 1000 meter proximity to the local high school than Randy Ruiz will of seeing anything he can drive. I can drive too, girls. Would you like to go to the mall and try on somENOUGH.

While Randy Ruiz is a cute yet ultimately meaningless story (as far as the greater Blue Jays narrative goes, I suppose), the Jays inability to draw walks is becoming mildly alarming. Over the last month your Toronto Blue Jays pretty much stopped walking, drawing free passes at a slower rate than THE KANSAS CITY ROYALS. The Royals that just keep acquiring shitty middle infielders with no power but huge strikeout numbers. THOSE ROYALS. Lyle Overbay is the only hitter with the patience to draw a walk but that is all he wants to do. This is not what I had in mind when I coined the phrase Citocity, can someone please fix it? (so what if only I use it, it still gets to be a phrase)

Obligatory Travis Snider Positivity

Let me put the doom and gloom on hold for a second. Watch this video of Victor Martinez's home run off Brandon League (FML!). Go back and re-watch Travis Snider's home run from Tuesday night. Carbon damn copy, right? That, my friends, is a good sign. Why? Because Victor Martinez can fucking hit.

Victor's tater went further as it was propelled by the power of Kahuna, but the swing, the approach, even the stance is the same. V-Mart is a part-time catcher, but his offensive numbers are good (not great) for his career. .358 career wOBA (though two bad, injury-plagued seasons drag it down from good year levels around .370), 100 home runs, BB/K right around 1. I don't mean to suggest this is Snider's ceiling (he's still 21!!!) but the similarities exist. At this point, it's all we've got.